Monitoring the burden of COVID-19 and impact of hospital transfer policies on Australian aged-care residents in residential aged-care facilities in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Residential aged-care facilities in Australia emerged as the high-risk setting the COVID-19 outbreaks due to community transmission. The vulnerable aged-care residents of these facilities suffered due to low hospital transfers and high mortality and morbidity rates. This study aimed to monitor and report the burden of COVID-19 in residential aged-care facilities across Australia and the impact of hospital transfer policies on resident hospitalisation during the first year of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by collecting data from weekly aged-care outbreak reports published by open sources and official government sources between 1st March and 20th November 2020. A comprehensive line list of outbreaks was created using open-source data. The line list included the name of the facility, location, COVID-19 cases among residents, & staff, resident hospitalisations, mode of transmission, number of resident deaths, and state policies involving resident hospitalisation. We also searched the websites of these facilities to collect data on their COVID-19 policies for the residents, staff, and visitors. Statistical analyses were performed on the data obtained. RESULTS: 126 aged-care COVID-19 outbreaks were identified in Australia during the study period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 infections among aged-care residents in Australia was (1118.5 per 100,000 resident population) which is 10 times higher than the general population (107.6 per 100,000 population). The hospitalisation rate for aged-care residents in Australia was 0.93 per 100,000 population. The hospitalisation rate of aged-care residents in Victoria was 3.14 per 100,000 population despite having the highest COVID-19 cases. Excluding South Australia, all states followed ad-hoc case-by-case hospital transfer policies for aged-care residents. CONCLUSION: This study documented a higher risk of COVID-19 infection for aged-care residents and workers but found low hospitalisation rates among residents across Australia. The hospitalisation rates in Victoria were higher than the national average but low when considering the COVID-19 infection rates in the state. The hospitalisation rates could have been impacted due to the state hospital transfer policies at that time. Immediate transfer of infected residents to hospitals may improve their survival and reduce the risk of infection to the other residents, as healthcare settings have more advanced infection control measures and are well-equipped with trained staff and resources.

The impact of COVID-19 and COVID vaccination on cardiovascular outcomes.

COVID-19 is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. COVID-19 vaccination may prevent this, but in some cases, COVID-19 vaccination may cause myocarditis or pericarditis. Patients with COVID-19 may present with non-specific symptoms that have a cardiac origin. This review examines the cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 infection and the impact of COVID-19 vaccination. COVID-19 cardiovascular complications include myocardial injury, pericarditis, coagulopathy, myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmias, and persistent post-acute risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Diagnostic and referral pathways for non-specific symptoms, such as dyspnoea and fatigue, remain unclear. COVID-19 vaccination is cardioprotective overall but is associated with myopericarditis in young males, though at a lower rate than following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Increased awareness among primary care physicians of potential cardiovascular causes of non-specific post-COVID-19 symptoms, including in younger adults, such as fatigue, dyspnoea, and chest pain, is essential. We recommend full vaccination with scheduled booster doses, optimal management of cardiovascular risk factors, rapid treatment of COVID-19, and clear diagnostic, referral, and management pathways for patients presenting with non-specific symptoms to rule out cardiac complications.

Efficacy of face masks and respirators in preventing upper respiratory tract bacterial colonization and co-infection in hospital healthcare workers.

OBJECTIVE: We compared the efficacy of medical masks (MM) and N95 respirators (N95) in preventing bacterial colonization/infection in healthcare workers (HCWs). METHODS: A cluster randomized clinical trial (RCT) of 1441 hospital HCWs randomized to medical masks or N95 respirators, and compared to 481 control HCWs, was performed in Beijing, China, during the winter season of 2008-2009. Participants were followed for development of clinical respiratory illness (CRI). Symptomatic subjects were tested for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Bordetella pertussis, Chlamydia pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae or Haemophilus influenza type B by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: The rate of bacterial colonization was 2.8% in the N95 group (p=0.02), 5.3% among medical mask users (p<0.01) and 7.5% among the controls (p=0.16). N95 respirators were significantly protective (adjusted RR 0.34, 95% CI: 0.21-0.56) against bacterial colonization. Co-infections of two bacteria or a virus and bacteria occurred in up to 3.7% of HCWs, and were significantly lower in the N95 arm. CONCLUSIONS: N95 respirators were significantly protective against bacterial colonization, co-colonization and viral-bacterial co-infection. We showed that dual respiratory virus or bacterial-viral co-infections can be reduced by the use of N95 respirators. This study has occupational health and safety implications for health workers.

Cost-benefit of influenza vaccination in preventing sudden cardiac arrest amongst Australian adults.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to estimate the economic cost benefit of funding influenza vaccination to all Australian adults 50-64 years and predict its effect on sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) deaths and hospitalisation. METHODS: We combined SCA hospitalisation data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) with survival, vaccination, and cost parameters from published literature to create a model estimating the cost benefit of universally funded influenza vaccinations to prevent SCA deaths and hospitalisation. Costs were considered from a government perspective and included cost of vaccines and GP consultations, whilst averted deaths were estimated through the age-adjusted value of a statistical life. RESULTS: The target policy was estimated to prevent 278 SCA hospitalisations and 1269 SCA deaths. This would result in cost-savings of almost $4 billion annually, with an incremental benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 59.94. The majority of savings were associate with averted deaths. When a sensitivity analysis was performed by altering statistical life year values and reducing life years left, the cost-saving remained significant with a minimum BCR of 29.97 derived. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing SCA through extended vaccination including adults 50-64 years is likely to be a cost beneficial policy from a governmental perspective. SCA deaths account for a significant economic loss due to the high mortality rate, which was far greater than the costs saved through averted hospitalisations. More accurate parameters are needed to improve the reliability of these estimate; however, this model can be used as a basis for further research into the economic impact of SCA.

Systematic review of influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults living in aged care facilities.

We estimated the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults in aged care. Electronic database searches were conducted using search terms, and studies were selected as per the selection criteria. Fourteen studies were included for final review. The studies exhibited considerable variation in reported vaccine effectiveness (VE) across different seasons. Among the observational studies, VE ranged from 7.2% to 89.8% against laboratory-confirmed influenza across different vaccines. Randomized clinical trials demonstrated a 17% reduction in infection rates with the adjuvanted trivalent vaccine. The limitations include the small number of included studies conducted in different countries or regions, varied seasons, variations in diagnostic testing methods, a focus on the A/H3N2 strain, and few studies available on the effectiveness of enhanced influenza vaccines in aged care settings. Despite challenges associated with achieving optimal protection, the studies showed the benefits of influenza vaccination in the elderly residents.

Healthcare Workers' SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Four Hospital Outbreaks during Delta Variant Prevalence in Sydney, Australia.

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections due to occupational exposure. The use of airborne personal protective equipment (PPE) significantly reduces this risk. In June 2021, an epidemic of the Delta variant began in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Concurrent PPE guidelines, set by the Clinical Excellence Commission (CEC), restricted the use of respirators. Objective: To understand the relationship of PPE guidelines with workplace-acquired HCW SARS-CoV-2 infections in different clinical settings and to examine the relationship between rates of community transmission and workplace-acquired HCW infections during the Delta outbreak in NSW. Methods: Total SARS-CoV-2 HCW infections between 13 June and 30 October 2021 (first four months of the Delta wave) were estimated from the government COVID-19 surveillance reports and compared with the surveillance reports of community transmission. In the absence of a detailed reporting of HCW infections, open-source data including news articles, media releases, and epidemiological surveillance reports were also collected. Data were extracted on HCW cases of SARS-CoV-2 from four hospitals, including the number of HCW cases (per NSW Health definition), clinical setting, PPE guidelines, and evidence of increasing local transmission. Results: SARS-CoV-2 infections in HCW identified as workplace-acquired infections (n = 177) and those without a known transmission source (n = 532) increased during the period of increasing community transmission (n = 75,014) in NSW. Four hospital COVID-19 clusters affecting 20 HCWs were identified between June and October 2021. HCW clusters occurred in general wards where staff were recommended to wear surgical masks. No workplace-acquired HCW infections were reported in these hospitals from critical care wards, where respirators were recommended during the same outbreak weeks. Conclusions: Differences in PPE policy across different wards may leave healthcare staff at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. During periods of high community transmission, respirators should be provided to protect hospital staff. Formal reporting of HCW infections should occur.

Estimated health and economic impact of using high-dose influenza vaccine on respiratory and circulatory plus respiratory hospitalizations of older adults in Australia.

Background: Standard dose influenza vaccine provides moderate protection from infection, but with lower effectiveness among the elderly. High dose and adjuvanted vaccines (HD-TIV and aTIV) were developed to address this. This study aims to estimate the incremental health and economic impact of using HD-TIV (high dose trivalent vaccine) instead of aTIV (adjuvanted trivalent vaccine) on respiratory and circulatory plus respiratory hospitalizations of older people (≥65 years) in Australia. Methods: This is a modelling study comparing predicted hospitalization outcomes in people receiving HD-TIV or aTIV during an average influenza season in Australia. Hospitalization records of Australian adults ≥65 years of age from 01 April to 30 November during 15 influenza seasons (2002-2017 excluding 2009, which was a pandemic) were extracted from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare [AIHW] and used to calculate hospitalisation rates during an average season. Relative vaccine effectiveness data for aTIV and HD-TIV were used to estimate morbidity burden related to influenza. Results: Between 2002 and 2017, the average respiratory hospitalization rate among older people during influenza season (April-November) was 3,445/100,000 population-seasons, with an average cost of AU$ 7,175 per admission. The average circulatory plus respiratory hospitalization rate among older Australian people during that time was 10,393/100,000 population-seasons, with an average cost of AU$ 7829 per admission. For older Australians, HD-TIV may avert an additional 6,315-9,410 respiratory admissions each year, with an incremental healthcare cost saving of AU$ 15.9-38.2 million per year compared to aTIV. Similar results were also noted for circulatory plus respiratory hospitalizations. Conclusions: From the modelled estimations, HD-TIV was associated with less economic burden and fewer respiratory, and circulatory plus respiratory hospitalizations than aTIV for older Australians.

The long road of pandemic vaccine development to rollout: A systematic review on the lessons learnt from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic prompted one of the largest public health responses in history. The continuous emergence of new and deadly pathogens has highlighted the need to reflect upon past experiences to improve pandemic preparedness. The aim of this study was to examine the development and rollout of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic vaccine and knowledge challenges for the effective implementation of vaccination programs for COVID-19 and future influenza pandemics. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted searching EMBASE (inception to current date) and PUBMED (from January 2009 to current date) databases for relevant published studies about influenza A(H1N1) pandemic vaccines. A Google search was conducted to identify relevant documents from gray literature. Selected Studies were reviewed and summarized. RESULTS: A total of 22, comprising of 12 original studies and 10 relevant documents met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen papers reported an initial high demand that outweighed production capacity and caused vaccine shortages. Vaccine procurement and supply were skewed toward high-income countries. Low vaccination rates of about 5%-50% were reported in all studies mainly due to a low-risk perception of getting infected, safety concerns, and the fear of adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: Safety concerns about the approved H1N1 vaccines resulted in many unsuccessful vaccination campaigns worldwide. Understanding the factors that influence people's decision to accept or refuse vaccination, effective risk communication strategies, adequate resources for vaccine deployment initiatives and building local capacities through shared knowledge and technology transfer may help to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake and accelerate pandemic control.

Burden of influenza in adults with cardiac arrest admissions in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac arrest is the least preventable burden of cardiovascular disease, as treatment depends on timely resuscitation. The incidence of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is high, contributing 10-20% of cardiovascular mortality globally. The influenza vaccine reduces the risk of acute cardiovascular events. Little is known about the relationship of influenza infection to cardiac arrest. METHODS: This study aimed to determine the estimated rate of SCA hospitalisations attributable to influenza in Australian adults. A generalised-additive statistical model was applied in the study. Weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications were used as independent variables in the model. RESULTS: Our estimates showed that the yearly rate of SCA hospitalisations varied, and a significant association with influenza was observed in some years in older adults aged 65 years and over. On average, the annual estimated SCA hospitalisations rate due to influenza in adults aged 50-64 years and ≥ 65 years were 0.7 (95%CI: 0.4, 1.1) and 5.3 (95%CI: 4.4, 6.2) per 100,000 population, respectively. CONCLUSION: The association between influenza and SCA is evident in adults and the disease burden is significant in older people. Prevention of influenza by vaccination may reduce SCA.

Modelling the influenza disease burden in people aged 50-64 and ≥65 years in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of influenza disease burden is necessary to monitor the impact of intervention programmes. This study aims to estimate the attributable fraction of respiratory and circulatory disease due to influenza among Australian adults 50-64 and ≥65 years of age. METHODS: A semi-parametric generalised-additive model was used to estimate annual and average rate of influenza-attributable hospitalisation and death per 100,000 population under the principal diagnosis of influenza/pneumonia, respiratory, circulatory and myocardial infarction (MI) from 2001 through 2017. RESULTS: Over the study period, seasonal influenza accounted for an estimated annual average respiratory hospitalisation rate of 78.9 (95%CI: 76.3, 81.4) and 287.5 (95%CI: 279.8, 295.3) per 100,000 population in adults aged 50-64 and ≥65 years, respectively. The corresponding respiratory mortality rates were 0.9 (95%CI: 0.7, 1.2) and 18.2 (95%CI: 16.9, 19.4) per 100,000 population. The 2017 season had the highest influenza-attributable respiratory hospitalisations in both age groups, and respiratory complications were estimated approximately 2.5 times higher than the average annual estimate in adults aged ≥65 years in 2017. For mortality, on average, influenza attributed 1,080 circulatory and 361 MI deaths in adults aged ≥65 years per year. Influenza accounted for 1% and 2.8% of total MI deaths in adults aged 50-64 and ≥65 years, respectively. CONCLUSION: Rates of cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality were high in older adults, whilst the younger age group contributed a lower disease burden. Extension of influenza vaccination programme beyond the targeted population could be an alternative strategy to reduce the burden of influenza.

Effectiveness estimates for enhanced trivalent influenza vaccines in an aged care summer outbreak.

An influenza outbreak occurred during summer (February 2019) in an aged-care facility in Sydney, Australia. Residents had not received the annual 2019 influenza vaccine while 76.7% had received 2018 influenza vaccines about 9 months prior. Overall, 2018 influenza vaccine effectiveness during this outbreak was high (93.6%). The effectiveness of the high-dose trivalent vaccine (HD-TIV) and adjuvanted trivalent (a-TIV) vaccine were 89.8% (95% confidence interval: 18.8%-98.7%) and 72.5% (95% confidence interval: -106.7%-96.3%) respectively. The differences in effectiveness between HD-TIV, a-TIV and SD-QIV, during the summer outbreak were not significant.

Using open-source intelligence to identify early signals of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

OBJECTIVE: Open-source data from online news reports and informal sources may provide information about outbreaks before official notification. This study aims to evaluate the use of open-source data from the epidemic observatory, EpiWATCH, to identify the early signals of pneumonia of unknown cause as a proxy for COVID-19 in Indonesia. METHODS: Using open-source data on pneumonia of unknown cause in Indonesia between 1 November 2019 and 31 March 2020 (extracted from EpiWATCH, an open-source epidemic observatory), a descriptive analysis was performed to identify the trend of pneumonia of unknown cause in Indonesia before official notification of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: A rise in reports of pneumonia of unknown cause was identified in Indonesia, starting from late January 2020. There were 304 reported cases of pneumonia of unknown cause, 30 of which occurred before the identification of the first COVID-19 cases on 2 March 2020. The early signals of pneumonia of unknown cause in Indonesia may indicate possible unrecognized circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) before official detection. DISCUSSION: Open-source data may provide rapid, unvalidated information for early detection of outbreaks. Although unvalidated, such information may be used to supplement or trigger investigation and testing. As EpiWATCH sources global information, this methodology can be repeated for other countries within the Western Pacific Region, and for other diseases.

Epidemiology of 2017 influenza outbreaks in nine Australian Aged care facilities.

BACKGROUND: The 2017 A/H3N2 influenza season was the most severe season since the 2009 influenza pandemic. There were over 591 influenza outbreaks in institutions across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia. AIM: To describe the epidemiology of influenza outbreaks in nine Sydney aged care facilities in 2017. METHODS: Study data were collected from nine Sydney aged care facilities for 2017 influenza season. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted. RESULTS: From the nine sites included, with a total of 716 residents, four sites reported laboratory-confirmed influenza outbreaks during the study period, with an attack rate in residents ranging from 6% to 29%. The outbreaks resulted in lockdowns in two facilities and hospitalisation of seven residents. No deaths were reported as a result of influenza infection. Influenza A was the most common influenza type reported across the facilities. The duration of outbreak lasted for 1-4 weeks varied by site. CONCLUSION: The 2017 season was a severe influenza season recorded in Australia. About half of the facilities studied experienced outbreaks of influenza, with a high attack rate among residents. Infection prevention and control measures and outbreak management plans are crucial for aged care facilities, including vaccination of staff and visitors to prevent outbreaks among the vulnerable residents.

Effect of statin use on the risk of influenza and influenza vaccine effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have shown that statins reduce the efficacy of influenza vaccine. The aim was to examine the impact of statins on influenza and influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). METHODS: This study was a post-hoc analysis of subjects in a prospective case-control study of influenza and acute myocardial infarction, where data on influenza infection, vaccination and statin use was collected. Study participants, aged ≥40 years were recruited from tertiary hospitals in Sydney from 2008 to 2010. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: Of total 559 participants, 276 (49.4%) had been vaccinated and 196 (35.1%) were taking statins. The rate of laboratory confirmed influenza was significantly higher in unvaccinated statin users (adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 2.44; 95% CI: 1.06-5.62) compared to unvaccinated non-users. The VE was 98% overall, and not significantly different between statin users (92.4%) and non-statin users (100%). In adjusted analysis of all subjects, vaccination was significantly protective (AOR, 0.02; 95% CI: 0.01-0.15), and statins remained significantly associated with influenza risk (AOR, 2.47; 95% CI: 1.08-5.64). CONCLUSION: There was no significant difference in influenza VE by statin use, and vaccine was highly effective in both statin users and non-users. There was a significantly higher risk of influenza among statin users, independent of vaccination. Statins may increase the risk of influenza through immunomodulatory mechanisms, or this may be confounded by other risk factors for influenza. It is important that people on statins should be vaccinated against influenza.

Estimated hospitalisations attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza in Australia: 2001- 2013.

BACKGROUND: Influenza continues to cause seasonal epidemics and pandemics in humans. The burden of influenza is underestimated by traditional laboratory-based surveillance, and modelled estimates are required for influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality. We aimed to estimate the influenza-attributable hospitalisation in Australia, by influenza type. METHODS: A generalised-additive regression model was used to estimate type- and age-specific influenza-attributable hospitalisation rates per 100,000 population by principal diagnosis in Australia, from 2001 through 2013. Weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications and by type, influenza A and B were used as covariates in the model. Main principal diagnosis categories of interest were influenza and pneumonia and respiratory admissions. A smoothing spline was used to control for unmeasured time varying factors. Results for 2009, in which the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated, were not included in annual averages and are reported separately. RESULTS: During the study period, the estimated annual average, all-age, annual respiratory hospitalisation rates attributable to seasonal influenza type A, B and total influenza were 45.4 (95% CI: 34.9, 55.9), 32.6 (95% CI: 22.8, 42.4), and 76.9 (95% CI: 73.6, 80.2) per 100,000 population, respectively. During 2009, the estimated total pandemic influenza-attributable, all-age, respiratory hospitalisation rate was 56.1 (95% CI: 47.4, 64.9) per 100,000. Older adults (≥85 years of age) experienced the highest influenza-attributable hospitalisation rates for both seasonal and 2009 pandemic influenza. Collinearity between influenza A and B time series in some years limited the ability of the model to resolve differences in influenza attribution between the two virus types. CONCLUSION: Both seasonal and pandemic influenza caused considerable morbidity in Australia during the years studied, particularly among older adults. The pandemic hospitalisation rate in 2009 was lower than the average overall annual rate for seasonal influenza, but young to middle aged adults experience a hospitalisation rate similar to that of severe seasonal influenza.

A rapid risk analysis tool to prioritise response to infectious disease outbreaks.

Epidemics are influenced by both disease and societal factors and can grow exponentially over short time periods. Epidemic risk analysis can help in rapidly predicting potentially serious outcomes and flagging the need for rapid response. We developed a multifactorial risk analysis tool 'EpiRisk' to provide rapid insight into the potential severity of emerging epidemics by combining disease-related parameters and country-related risk parameters. An initial set of 18 disease and country-related risk parameters was reduced to 14 following qualitative discussions and the removal of highly correlated parameters by a correlation and clustering analysis. Of the remaining parameters, three risk levels were assigned ranging from low (1) moderate (2) and high (3). The total risk score for an outbreak of a given disease in a particular country is calculated by summing these 14 risk scores, and this sum is subsequently classified into one of four risk categories: low risk (<21), moderate risk (21-29), high risk (30-37) and extreme risk (>37). Total risk scores were calculated for nine retrospective outbreaks demonstrating an association with the actual impact of those outbreaks. We also evaluated to what extent the risk scores correlate with the number of cases and deaths in 61 additional outbreaks between 2002 and 2018, demonstrating positive associations with outbreak severity as measured by the number of deaths. Using EpiRisk, timely intervention can be implemented by predicting the risk of emerging outbreaks in real time, which may help government and public health professionals prevent catastrophic epidemic outcomes.

Comparative epidemiology, phylogenetics, and transmission patterns of severe influenza A/H3N2 in Australia from 2003 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Over the last two decades, Australia has experienced four severe influenza seasons caused by a predominance of influenza A (A/H3N2): 2003, 2007, 2012, and 2017. METHODS: We compared the epidemiology, genetics, and transmission dynamics of severe A/H3N2 seasons in Australia from 2003 to 2017. RESULTS: Since 2003, the proportion of notifications in 0-4 years old has decreased, while it has increased in the age group >80 years old (P < .001). The genetic diversity of circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses has also increased over time with the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms significantly (P < .05) increasing. We also identified five residue positions within or near the receptor binding site of HA (144, 145, 159, 189, and 225) undergoing frequent mutations that are likely involved in significant antigenic drift and possibly severity. The Australian state of Victoria was identified as a frequent location for transmission either to or from other states and territories over the study years. The states of New South Wales and Queensland were also frequently implicated as locations of transmission to other states and territories but less so over the years. This indicates a stable but also changing dynamic of A/H3N2 circulation in Australia. CONCLUSION: These results have important implications for future influenza surveillance and control policy in the country. Reasons for the change in age-specific infection and increased genetic diversity of A/H3N2 viruses in recent years should be explored.