Tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Surveillance in Malawi (Timasamala)-A protocol for a cross-sectional Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey in Blantyre, Malawi.

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of "latent TB infection", or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally.

Impact of active case-finding for tuberculosis on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi: A community-based cluster-randomised trial (SCALE).

Active case-finding (ACF) for tuberculosis can help find the "missing millions" with undiagnosed tuberculosis. In a cluster-randomised trial, we investigated impact of ACF on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi, where ACF has been intensively implemented following 2014 estimates of ~1,000 per 100,000 adults with undiagnosed TB. Following a pre-intervention prevalence survey (May 2019 to March 2020), constrained randomisation allocated neighbourhoods to either door-to-door ACF (sputum microscopy for reported cough >2 weeks) or standard-of-care (SOC). Implementation was interrupted by COVID-19. Cluster-level bacteriologically-confirmed case-notification rate (CNR) ratio within 91 days of ACF was our redefined primary outcome; comparison between arms used Poisson regression with random effects. Secondary outcomes were 91-day CNR ratios comparing all tuberculosis registrations and all non-ACF registrations. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of CNRs in the SOC arm examined prevalence survey impact. (ISRCTN11400592). 72 clusters served by 10 study-supported tuberculosis registration centres were randomised to ACF (261,244 adults, 58,944 person-years follow-up) or SOC (256,713 adults, 52,805 person-years). Of 1,192 ACF participants, 13 (1.09%) were smear-positive. Within 91 days, 113 (42 bacteriologically-confirmed) and 108 (33 bacteriologically-confirmed) tuberculosis patients were identified as ACF or SOC cluster residents, respectively. There was no difference by arm, with adjusted 91-day CNR ratios 1.12 (95% CI: 0.61-2.07) for bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis; 0.93 (95% CI: 0.68-1.28) for all tuberculosis registrations; and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.63-1.16) for non-ACF (routinely) diagnosed. Of 7,905 ACF and 7,992 SOC pre-intervention survey participants, 12 (0.15%) and 17 (0.21%), respectively, had culture/Xpert-confirmed tuberculosis. ITS analysis showed no survey impact on SOC CNRs. Despite residual undiagnosed tuberculosis of 150 per 100,000 population, there was no increase in tuberculosis notifications from this previously successful approach targeting symptomatic disease, likely due to previous TB ACF and rapid declines in TB burden. In such settings, future ACF should focus on targeted outreach and demand creation, alongside optimised facility-based screening. Trial Registration: ISRCTN11400592.

Prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in urban Blantyre, Malawi 2019-20: Substantial decline compared to 2013-14 national survey.

Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men.