Effect of temperature on the phenology of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera, Crambidae); simulation and visualization of the potential future distribution of C. partellus in Africa under warmer temperatures through the development of life-table parameters.

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 °C), relative humidity of 75±5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 °C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 °C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

Colonization patterns of the invasive Brazilian peppertree, Schinus terebinthifolius, in Florida.

Invasive species are believed to spread through a process of stratified dispersal consisting of short-distance diffusive spread around established foci and human mediated long-distance jumps. Brazilian peppertree (Schinus terebinthifolius), native to South America, was introduced twice as an ornamental plant into Florida, USA, just over 100 years ago. A previous study indicated that these two introductions were from genetically differentiated source populations in the native range. In this study, we took advantage of these contrasting genetic signatures to study the spatial spread of Brazilian peppertree across its entire range in Florida. A combination of spatial genetic and geostatistical analyses using chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite markers revealed evidence for both diffusive dispersal and long-distance jumps. Chloroplast DNA haplotype distributions and extensive bands of intra-specific hybridization revealed extensive dispersal by both introduced populations across the state. The strong genetic signature around the original introduction points, the presence of a general southeast to northwest genetic cline, and evidence for short-distance genetic spatial autocorrelation provided evidence of diffusive dispersal from an advancing front, probably by birds and small mammals. In the northernmost part of the range, there were patches having a high degree of ancestry from each introduction, suggesting long-distance jump dispersal, probably by the movement of humans. The evidence for extensive movement throughout the state suggests that Brazilian peppertree will be capable of rapidly recolonizing areas from which it has been eradicated. Concerted eradication efforts over large areas or the successful establishment of effective biocontrol agents over a wide area will be needed to suppress this species.