Temporal clustering of neuroblastic tumours in children and young adults from Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of neuroblastic tumours is likely to involve both genetic and environmental factors. A number of possible environmental risk factors have been suggested, including infection. If an irregular temporal pattern in incidence is found, this might suggest that a transient agent, such as an infection, is implicated. Previous work has found evidence for temporal clustering in children and young adults living in northern England. METHODS: We examined data from a second population-based registry from Ontario, Canada to determine whether there was evidence of temporal clustering of neuroblastic tumours. Cases diagnosed in children and young adults aged 0-19 years between 1985 and 2016 were extracted from the population-based Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario Networked Information System (POGONIS). A modified version of the Potthoff-Whittinghill method was used to test for temporal clustering. Estimates of extra-Poisson variation (EPV) and standard errors (SE) were obtained. RESULTS: Eight hundred seventy-six cases of neuroblastic tumours were diagnosed during the study period. Overall, no evidence of temporal clustering was found between fortnights, between months or between quarters within years. However, significant EPV was found between years within the full study period (EPV = 1.05, SE = 0.25; P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The findings are consistent with the possibility that a transient agent, such as an infection that is characterised by 'peaks and troughs' in its occurrence, might be implicated in the aetiology of neuroblastic tumours. However, this pattern may also reflect a long-term increase in the numbers of cases, rather than peaks and troughs.

Behavior Change Techniques Used in Digital Behavior Change Interventions to Reduce Excessive Alcohol Consumption: A Meta-regression.

Background: Digital behavior change interventions (DBCIs) appear to reduce alcohol consumption, but greater understanding is needed of their mechanisms of action. Purpose: To describe the behavior change techniques (BCTs) used in DBCIs and examine whether individual BCTs, the inclusion of more BCTs or more Control Theory congruent BCTs is associated with increased effectiveness. Methods: Forty-one randomized control trials were extracted from a Cochrane review of alcohol reduction DBCIs and coded for up to 93 BCTs using an established and reliable method. Random effects unadjusted and adjusted meta-regression models were performed to assess associations between BCTs and intervention effectiveness. Results: Interventions used a mean of 9.1 BCTs (range 1-22), 23 different BCTs were used in four or more trials. Trials that used "Behavior substitution" (-95.112 grams per week [gpw], 95% CI: -162.90, -27.34), "Problem solving" (-45.92 gpw, 95% CI: -90.97, -0.87) and "Credible source" (-32.09 gpw, 95% CI: -60.64, -3.55) were significantly associated with greater alcohol reduction than trials without these BCTs. The "Behavior substitution" result should be treated as preliminary because it was reported in only four trials, three of which were conducted by the same research group. "Feedback" was used in 98% of trials (n = 41); other Control Theory congruent BCTs were used less frequently: for example, "Goal setting" 43% (n = 18) and "Self-monitoring" 29%, (n = 12). Conclusions: "Behavior substitution," "Problem solving," and "Credible source" were associated with greater alcohol reduction. Many BCTs were used infrequently in DBCIs, including BCTs with evidence of effectiveness in other domains, such as "Self-monitoring" and "Goal setting."

Effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions in primary care populations.

BACKGROUND: Excessive drinking is a significant cause of mortality, morbidity and social problems in many countries. Brief interventions aim to reduce alcohol consumption and related harm in hazardous and harmful drinkers who are not actively seeking help for alcohol problems. Interventions usually take the form of a conversation with a primary care provider and may include feedback on the person's alcohol use, information about potential harms and benefits of reducing intake, and advice on how to reduce consumption. Discussion informs the development of a personal plan to help reduce consumption. Brief interventions can also include behaviour change or motivationally-focused counselling.This is an update of a Cochrane Review published in 2007. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of screening and brief alcohol intervention to reduce excessive alcohol consumption in hazardous or harmful drinkers in general practice or emergency care settings. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and 12 other bibliographic databases to September 2017. We searched Alcohol and Alcohol Problems Science Database (to December 2003, after which the database was discontinued), trials registries, and websites. We carried out handsearching and checked reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of brief interventions to reduce hazardous or harmful alcohol consumption in people attending general practice, emergency care or other primary care settings for reasons other than alcohol treatment. The comparison group was no or minimal intervention, where a measure of alcohol consumption was reported. 'Brief intervention' was defined as a conversation comprising five or fewer sessions of brief advice or brief lifestyle counselling and a total duration of less than 60 minutes. Any more was considered an extended intervention. Digital interventions were not included in this review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. We carried out subgroup analyses where possible to investigate the impact of factors such as gender, age, setting (general practice versus emergency care), treatment exposure and baseline consumption. MAIN RESULTS: We included 69 studies that randomised a total of 33,642 participants. Of these, 42 studies were added for this update (24,057 participants). Most interventions were delivered in general practice (38 studies, 55%) or emergency care (27 studies, 39%) settings. Most studies (61 studies, 88%) compared brief intervention to minimal or no intervention. Extended interventions were compared with brief (4 studies, 6%), minimal or no intervention (7 studies, 10%). Few studies targeted particular age groups: adolescents or young adults (6 studies, 9%) and older adults (4 studies, 6%). Mean baseline alcohol consumption was 244 g/week (30.5 standard UK units) among the studies that reported these data. Main sources of bias were attrition and lack of provider or participant blinding. The primary meta-analysis included 34 studies (15,197 participants) and provided moderate-quality evidence that participants who received brief intervention consumed less alcohol than minimal or no intervention participants after one year (mean difference (MD) -20 g/week, 95% confidence interval (CI) -28 to -12). There was substantial heterogeneity among studies (I² = 73%). A subgroup analysis by gender demonstrated that both men and women reduced alcohol consumption after receiving a brief intervention.We found moderate-quality evidence that brief alcohol interventions have little impact on frequency of binges per week (MD -0.08, 95% CI -0.14 to -0.02; 15 studies, 6946 participants); drinking days per week (MD -0.13, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.04; 11 studies, 5469 participants); or drinking intensity (-0.2 g/drinking day, 95% CI -3.1 to 2.7; 10 studies, 3128 participants).We found moderate-quality evidence of little difference in quantity of alcohol consumed when extended and no or minimal interventions were compared (-14 g/week, 95% CI -37 to 9; 6 studies, 1296 participants). There was little difference in binges per week (-0.08, 95% CI -0.28 to 0.12; 2 studies, 456 participants; moderate-quality evidence) or difference in days drinking per week (-0.45, 95% CI -0.81 to -0.09; 2 studies, 319 participants; moderate-quality evidence). Extended versus no or minimal intervention provided little impact on drinking intensity (9 g/drinking day, 95% CI -26 to 9; 1 study, 158 participants; low-quality evidence).Extended intervention had no greater impact than brief intervention on alcohol consumption, although findings were imprecise (MD 2 g/week, 95% CI -42 to 45; 3 studies, 552 participants; low-quality evidence). Numbers of binges were not reported for this comparison, but one trial suggested a possible drop in days drinking per week (-0.5, 95% CI -1.2 to 0.2; 147 participants; low-quality evidence). Results from this trial also suggested very little impact on drinking intensity (-1.7 g/drinking day, 95% CI -18.9 to 15.5; 147 participants; very low-quality evidence).Only five studies reported adverse effects (very low-quality evidence). No participants experienced any adverse effects in two studies; one study reported that the intervention increased binge drinking for women and two studies reported adverse events related to driving outcomes but concluded they were equivalent in both study arms.Sources of funding were reported by 67 studies (87%). With two exceptions, studies were funded by government institutes, research bodies or charitable foundations. One study was partly funded by a pharmaceutical company and a brewers association, another by a company developing diagnostic testing equipment. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found moderate-quality evidence that brief interventions can reduce alcohol consumption in hazardous and harmful drinkers compared to minimal or no intervention. Longer counselling duration probably has little additional effect. Future studies should focus on identifying the components of interventions which are most closely associated with effectiveness.

Alcohol Screening and Brief Intervention in Police Custody Suites: Pilot Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial (AcCePT).

AIMS: There is a clear association between alcohol use and offending behaviour and significant police time is spent on alcohol-related incidents. This study aimed to test the feasibility of a trial of screening and brief intervention in police custody suites to reduce heavy drinking and re-offending behaviour. SHORT SUMMARY: We achieved target recruitment and high brief intervention delivery if this occurred immediately after screening. Low rates of return for counselling and retention at follow-up were challenges for a definitive trial. Conversely, high consent rates for access to police data suggested at least some outcomes could be measured remotely. METHODS: A three-armed pilot Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial with an embedded qualitative interview-based process evaluation to explore acceptability issues in six police custody suites (north east and south west of the UK). Interventions included: 1. Screening only (Controls), 2. 10 min Brief Advice 3. Brief Advice plus 20 min of brief Counselling. RESULTS: Of 3330 arrestees approached: 2228 were eligible for screening (67%) and 720 consented (32%); 386 (54%) scored 8+ on AUDIT; and 205 (53%) were enroled (79 controls, 65 brief advice and 61 brief counselling). Follow-up rates at 6 and 12 months were 29% and 26%, respectively. However, routinely collected re-offending data were obtained for 193 (94%) participants. Indices of deprivation data were calculated for 184 (90%) participants; 37.6% of these resided in the 20% most deprived areas of UK. Qualitative data showed that all arrestees reported awareness that participation was voluntary, that the trial was separate from police work, and the majority said trial procedures were acceptable. CONCLUSION: Despite hitting target recruitment and same-day brief intervention delivery, a future trial of alcohol screening and brief intervention in a police custody setting would only be feasible if routinely collected re-offending and health data were used for outcome measurement. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN number: 89291046.

Rising global burden of breast cancer: the case of sub-Saharan Africa (with emphasis on Nigeria) and implications for regional development: a review.

BACKGROUND: Despite mortality from breast cancer in Africa being higher than in high income countries, breast cancer has not been extensively studied in the region. The aim of this paper was to highlight the rising burden of breast cancer with an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa as well as trends, characteristics, controversies and their implications for regional development. METHODOLOGY: A review of published studies and documents was conducted in Medline, Scopus, Pubmed and Google using combinations of key words-breast neoplasm, breast cancer, cancer, incidence, mortality, Africa, Nigeria. Graphical and frequency analyses were carried out on some of the incidence and mortality figures retrieved from published papers and the GLOBOCAN website. FINDINGS: Globally, about 25% and 15% of all new cancer cases and cancer deaths respectively among females were due to breast cancer. Africa currently had the highest age-standardized breast cancer mortality rate globally, with the highest incidence rates being recorded within the sub-Saharan African sub-region. Incidence trends such as inherently aggressive tumour and younger age profile had been subject to controversies. Certain factors such as westernized diet, urbanization and possibly increasing awareness had been implicated, though their specific contributions were yet to be fully established. CONCLUSION: Unless urgent action is taken, breast cancer will compound sub-Saharan Africa's disease burden, increase poverty and gender inequality as well as reverse the current global gains against maternal and neonatal mortality.

Reported Theory Use by Digital Interventions for Hazardous and Harmful Alcohol Consumption, and Association With Effectiveness: Meta-Regression.

BACKGROUND: Applying theory to the design and evaluation of interventions is likely to increase effectiveness and improve the evidence base from which future interventions are developed, though few interventions report this. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to assess how digital interventions to reduce hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption report the use of theory in their development and evaluation, and whether reporting of theory use is associated with intervention effectiveness. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials were extracted from a Cochrane review on digital interventions for reducing hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. Reporting of theory use within these digital interventions was investigated using the theory coding scheme (TCS). Reported theory use was analyzed by frequency counts and descriptive statistics. Associations were analyzed with meta-regression models. RESULTS: Of 41 trials involving 42 comparisons, half did not mention theory (50% [21/42]), and only 38% (16/42) used theory to select or develop the intervention techniques. Significant heterogeneity existed between studies in the effect of interventions on alcohol reduction (I2=77.6%, P<.001). No significant associations were detected between reporting of theory use and intervention effectiveness in unadjusted models, though the meta-regression was underpowered to detect modest associations. CONCLUSIONS: Digital interventions offer a unique opportunity to refine and develop new dynamic, temporally sensitive theories, yet none of the studies reported refining or developing theory. Clearer selection, application, and reporting of theory use is needed to accurately assess how useful theory is in this field and to advance the field of behavior change theories.

A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning the health effects of low-level ionizing radiation.

Exposure to ionizing radiation is ubiquitous, and it is well established that moderate and high doses cause ill-health and can be lethal. The health effects of low doses or low dose-rates of ionizing radiation are not so clear. This paper describes a project which sets out to summarize, as a restatement, the natural science evidence base concerning the human health effects of exposure to low-level ionizing radiation. A novel feature, compared to other reviews, is that a series of statements are listed and categorized according to the nature and strength of the evidence that underpins them. The purpose of this restatement is to provide a concise entrée into this vibrant field, pointing the interested reader deeper into the literature when more detail is needed. It is not our purpose to reach conclusions on whether the legal limits on radiation exposures are too high, too low or just right. Our aim is to provide an introduction so that non-specialist individuals in this area (be they policy-makers, disputers of policy, health professionals or students) have a straightforward place to start. The summary restatement of the evidence and an extensively annotated bibliography are provided as appendices in the electronic supplementary material.

Personalised digital interventions for reducing hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption in community-dwelling populations.

BACKGROUND: Excessive alcohol use contributes significantly to physical and psychological illness, injury and death, and a wide array of social harm in all age groups. A proven strategy for reducing excessive alcohol consumption levels is to offer a brief conversation-based intervention in primary care settings, but more recent technological innovations have enabled people to interact directly via computer, mobile device or smartphone with digital interventions designed to address problem alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of digital interventions for reducing hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption, alcohol-related problems, or both, in people living in the community, specifically: (i) Are digital interventions more effective and cost-effective than no intervention (or minimal input) controls? (ii) Are digital interventions at least equally effective as face-to-face brief alcohol interventions? (iii) What are the effective component behaviour change techniques (BCTs) of such interventions and their mechanisms of action? (iv) What theories or models have been used in the development and/or evaluation of the intervention? Secondary objectives were (i) to assess whether outcomes differ between trials where the digital intervention targets participants attending health, social care, education or other community-based settings and those where it is offered remotely via the internet or mobile phone platforms; (ii) to specify interventions according to their mode of delivery (e.g. functionality features) and assess the impact of mode of delivery on outcomes. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, ERIC, HTA and Web of Knowledge databases; ClinicalTrials.com and WHO ICTRP trials registers and relevant websites to April 2017. We also checked the reference lists of included trials and relevant systematic reviews. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the effectiveness of digital interventions compared with no intervention or with face-to-face interventions for reducing hazardous or harmful alcohol consumption in people living in the community and reported a measure of alcohol consumption. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by The Cochrane Collaboration. MAIN RESULTS: We included 57 studies which randomised a total of 34,390 participants. The main sources of bias were from attrition and participant blinding (36% and 21% of studies respectively, high risk of bias). Forty one studies (42 comparisons, 19,241 participants) provided data for the primary meta-analysis, which demonstrated that participants using a digital intervention drank approximately 23 g alcohol weekly (95% CI 15 to 30) (about 3 UK units) less than participants who received no or minimal interventions at end of follow up (moderate-quality evidence).Fifteen studies (16 comparisons, 10,862 participants) demonstrated that participants who engaged with digital interventions had less than one drinking day per month fewer than no intervention controls (moderate-quality evidence), 15 studies (3587 participants) showed about one binge drinking session less per month in the intervention group compared to no intervention controls (moderate-quality evidence), and in 15 studies (9791 participants) intervention participants drank one unit per occasion less than no intervention control participants (moderate-quality evidence).Only five small studies (390 participants) compared digital and face-to-face interventions. There was no difference in alcohol consumption at end of follow up (MD 0.52 g/week, 95% CI -24.59 to 25.63; low-quality evidence). Thus, digital alcohol interventions produced broadly similar outcomes in these studies. No studies reported whether any adverse effects resulted from the interventions.A median of nine BCTs were used in experimental arms (range = 1 to 22). 'B' is an estimate of effect (MD in quantity of drinking, expressed in g/week) per unit increase in the BCT, and is a way to report whether individual BCTs are linked to the effect of the intervention. The BCTs of goal setting (B -43.94, 95% CI -78.59 to -9.30), problem solving (B -48.03, 95% CI -77.79 to -18.27), information about antecedents (B -74.20, 95% CI -117.72 to -30.68), behaviour substitution (B -123.71, 95% CI -184.63 to -62.80) and credible source (B -39.89, 95% CI -72.66 to -7.11) were significantly associated with reduced alcohol consumption in unadjusted models. In a multivariable model that included BCTs with B > 23 in the unadjusted model, the BCTs of behaviour substitution (B -95.12, 95% CI -162.90 to -27.34), problem solving (B -45.92, 95% CI -90.97 to -0.87), and credible source (B -32.09, 95% CI -60.64 to -3.55) were associated with reduced alcohol consumption.The most frequently mentioned theories or models in the included studies were Motivational Interviewing Theory (7/20), Transtheoretical Model (6/20) and Social Norms Theory (6/20). Over half of the interventions (n = 21, 51%) made no mention of theory. Only two studies used theory to select participants or tailor the intervention. There was no evidence of an association between reporting theory use and intervention effectiveness. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate-quality evidence that digital interventions may lower alcohol consumption, with an average reduction of up to three (UK) standard drinks per week compared to control participants. Substantial heterogeneity and risk of performance and publication bias may mean the reduction was lower. Low-quality evidence from fewer studies suggested there may be little or no difference in impact on alcohol consumption between digital and face-to-face interventions.The BCTs of behaviour substitution, problem solving and credible source were associated with the effectiveness of digital interventions to reduce alcohol consumption and warrant further investigation in an experimental context.Reporting of theory use was very limited and often unclear when present. Over half of the interventions made no reference to any theories. Limited reporting of theory use was unrelated to heterogeneity in intervention effectiveness.

Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review.

AIM: To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9-17. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. RESULTS: Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. CONCLUSION: Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses.

Treatments for Hyperemesis Gravidarum and Nausea and Vomiting in Pregnancy: A Systematic Review.

Importance: Nausea and vomiting affects approximately 85% of pregnant women. The most severe form, hyperemesis gravidarum, affects up to 3% of women and can have significant adverse physical and psychological sequelae. Objective: To summarize current evidence on effective treatments for nausea and vomiting in pregnancy and hyperemesis gravidarum. Evidence Review: Databases were searched to June 8, 2016. Relevant websites and bibliographies were also searched. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently by 2 reviewers. Results were narratively synthesized; planned meta-analysis was not possible because of heterogeneity and incomplete reporting of findings. Findings: Seventy-eight studies (n = 8930 participants) were included: 67 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and 11 nonrandomized studies. Evidence from 35 RCTs at low risk of bias indicated that ginger, vitamin B6, antihistamines, metoclopramide (for mild symptoms), pyridoxine-doxylamine, and ondansetron (for moderate symptoms) were associated with improved symptoms compared with placebo. One RCT (n = 86) reported greater improvements in moderate symptoms following psychotherapy (change in Rhodes score [range, 0 {no symptoms} to 40 {worst possible symptoms}], 18.76 [SD, 5.48] to 7.06 [SD, 5.79] for intervention vs 19.18 [SD, 5.63] to 12.81 [SD, 6.88] for comparator [P < .001]). For moderate-severe symptoms, 1 RCT (n = 60) suggested that pyridoxine-doxylamine combination taken preemptively reduced risk of recurrence of moderate-severe symptoms compared with treatment once symptoms begin (15.4% vs 39.1% [P < .04]). One RCT (n = 83) found that ondansetron was associated with lower nausea scores on day 4 than metoclopramide (mean visual analog scale [VAS] score, 4.1 [SD, 2.9] for ondansetron vs 5.7 [SD, 2.3] for metoclopramide [P = .023]) but not episodes of emesis (5.0 [SD, 3.1] vs 3.3 [SD, 3], respectively [P = .013]). Although there was no difference in trend in nausea scores over the 14-day study period, trend in vomiting scores was better in the ondansetron group (P = .042). One RCT (n = 159) found no difference between metoclopramide and promethazine after 24 hours (episodes of vomiting, 1 [IQR, 0-5] for metoclopramide vs 2 [IQR, 0-3] for promethazine [P = .81], VAS [0-10 scale] for nausea, 2 [IQR, 1-5] vs 2 [IQR, 1-4], respectively [P = .99]). Three RCTs compared corticosteroids with placebo or promethazine or metoclopramide in women with severe symptoms. Improvements were seen in all corticosteroid groups, but only a significant difference between corticosteroids vs metoclopramide was reported (emesis reduction, 40.9% vs 16.5% at day 2; 71.6% vs 51.2% at day 3; 95.8% vs 76.6% at day 7 [n = 40, P < .001]). For other interventions, evidence was limited. Conclusions and Relevance: For mild symptoms of nausea and emesis of pregnancy, ginger, pyridoxine, antihistamines, and metoclopramide were associated with greater benefit than placebo. For moderate symptoms, pyridoxine-doxylamine, promethazine, and metoclopramide were associated with greater benefit than placebo. Ondansetron was associated with improvement for a range of symptom severity. Corticosteroids may be associated with benefit in severe cases. Overall the quality of evidence was low.

Temporal clustering of neuroblastic tumours in children and young adults from Northern England.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of neuroblastic tumours is unclear with both genetic and environmental factors implicated. The possibility that an infectious agent may be involved has been suggested. 'Temporal clustering' occurs if cases display an irregular temporal distribution and may indicate the involvement of an agent that exhibits epidemicity. We tested for the presence and nature of temporal clustering using population-based data from northern England. METHODS: We extracted all cases of neuroblastic tumours diagnosed in children and young adults aged 0-24 years during 1968-2011 from the Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry. This is a population-based registry, covering a population of approximately 900,000 young persons, and includes all cases resident in northern England at the time of diagnosis. Tests for temporal clustering were applied using a modified version of the Potthoff-Whittinghill method. Estimates of extra-Poisson variation (ß) and standard errors (SEs) were obtained. RESULTS: 227 cases of neuroblastic tumours were diagnosed during the study period. All the analyses between fortnights and between months found significant extra-Poisson variation, with ß = 0.846 (SE = 0.310, P = 0.004) for the analysis between fortnights within months. Restricting the analyses to the 76 cases diagnosed at ages less than 18 months showed significant extra-Poisson variation between fortnights within months (ß = 1.532, SE = 0.866, P = 0.038), but not between months. In contrast, analyses of cases aged 18 months to 24 years showed significant extra-Poisson variation between quarters within years, as well as over shorter timescales. CONCLUSIONS: Transient environmental agents may be involved in the aetiology of neuroblastic tumours. The initiating factor might be a geographically-widespread agent that occurs in 'mini-epidemics'.

Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.

The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high-radon homes should both stop smoking and remediate their homes.

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure.

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Type 1 diabetes in North East England and North Cumbria: patterns and time trends in 0-14-year-olds from 2012 to 2020.

Introduction: It is important to understand patterns in the epidemiology of type 1 diabetes because they may provide insight into its etiology. We examined the incidence of type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years, and patient demographics and clinical parameters at presentation, over the period 2012-2020 using the North East and North Cumbria Young Persons diabetes register. Methods: Patients up to the age of 14 years with type 1 diabetes, and their families- managed in a total of 18 young persons diabetes clinics-were approached in person at the time of clinic appointments or in the days following diagnosis and they consented to their data being included in the register. Data were submitted regionally to a central unit. Descriptive statistics including crude and age-specific incidence rates were calculated. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. Comparisons in incidence rates were made between age, sex and areas of higher and lower affluence as measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Results: A total of 943 cases were recorded between January 2012 and December 2020. Median age at diagnosis was 8.8 years (Q1: 5.3, Q3: 11.7). There were more males than females (54% male). The median HbA1c at diagnosis was 100 mmoL/L (IQR: 39) and over one third (35%) were in ketoacidosis (pH < 7.3). Crude incidence decreased from 25.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.9, 29.9) in 2012 to 16.6 (95% CI: 13.0, 20.2) per 100,000 in 2020 (5.1% per annum, 95% CI 1.1, 8.8%). During the period of the study there was no evidence of any trends in median age, HbA1c, BMI or birthweight (p = 0.18, 0.80, 0.69, 0.32) at diagnosis. Higher rates were observed in males aged 10-14 years, but similar rates were found for both sexes aged 0-9 years and there was no difference between areas of higher or lower deprivation (p = 0.22). Conclusion: The incidence of diabetes in the young may be falling in the North East of England and North Cumbria. The reasons are unclear as there were no associations identified between levels of deprivation or anthropometric measurements. Potential mechanisms include alterations in socioeconomic background or growth pattern. Further research is needed to understand the reasons behind this finding.

Development of a decision framework for establishing a health register following a major incident.

INTRODUCTION: Health registers have been established in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere following mass exposure to novel agents or known agents, but there is no consensus on the criteria for establishing such registers. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a decision framework to assess the need for establishing a health register for major chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) incidents. METHODS: The study comprised three stages. In the first stage, the study team prepared a list of potential criteria that may be used to assess the need for setting up a health register based on literature review and personal experiences in previous incidents. In the second stage, the potential criteria were evaluated in two Delphi rounds involving experts and key decision makers from the UK Health Protection Agency (HPA) and academic organizations. In the final stage, the criteria were converted into a decision framework, and its utility was tested using four fictional scenarios. RESULTS: A total of 11 statements were proposed by the study group. These criteria were revised following feedback from 16 experts in the first Delphi round. All 11 statements achieved consensus at the end of the second Delphi round. Pilot testing of the agreed criteria on four fictional scenarios confirmed validity and reliability for use in the decision process. CONCLUSIONS: A decision framework to assess the need for setting up a health register after a major incident was agreed upon and tested using fictional scenarios. Further areas of work for practical implementation of the criteria and related planning for systems and protocols have been identified.

Second malignancies in breast cancer patients following radiotherapy: a study in Florence, Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Patients diagnosed with breast cancer are often treated with surgery followed by radiation therapy. In this paper, we evaluate the effect that radiotherapy may have had on the subsequent risk of second malignancies, including the possible influences of age at treatment and menopausal status. METHODS: In order to evaluate the long-term consequences of radiotherapy, a cohort study was conducted based on clinical records for 5,248 women treated for breast cancer in Florence (Italy), with continuous follow-up from 1965 to 1994. The Cox proportional hazards model for ungrouped survival data was used to estimate the relative risk for second cancer after radiotherapy. RESULTS: This study indicated an increased relative risk of all second cancers combined following radiotherapy (1.22, 95% CI: 0.88 to 1.69). The increased relative risk appeared five or more years after radiotherapy and appeared to be highest amongst women treated after the menopause (1.61, 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.29). Increased relative risks were observed specifically for leukaemia (8.13, 95% CI: 0.96 to 69.1) and other solid cancers (1.84, 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.16), excluding contralateral breast cancer. For contralateral breast cancer, no raised relative risk was observed during the period more than five years after radiotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicated a raised risk of second malignancies associated with radiotherapy for breast cancer, particularly for women treated after the menopause.

Cerebrovascular diseases in nuclear workers first employed at the Mayak PA in 1948-1972.

Incidence and mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (430-438 ICD-9 codes) have been studied in a cohort of 18,763 workers first employed at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) in 1948-1972 and followed up to the end of 2005. Some of the workers were exposed to external gamma-rays only while others were exposed to a mixture of external gamma-rays and internal alpha-particle radiation due to incorporated (239)Pu. After adjusting for non-radiation factors, there were significantly increasing trends in CVD incidence with total absorbed dose from external gamma-rays and total absorbed dose to liver from internal alpha radiation. The CVD incidence was statistically significantly higher among workers with total absorbed external gamma-ray doses greater than 0.20 Gy compared to those exposed to lower doses; the data were consistent with a linear trend in risk with external dose. The CVD incidence was statistically significantly higher among workers with total absorbed internal alpha-radiation doses to liver from incorporated (239)Pu greater than 0.025 Gy compared to those exposed to lower doses. There was no statistically significant trend in CVD mortality risk with either external gamma-ray dose or internal alpha-radiation dose to liver. The risk estimates obtained are generally compatible with those from other large occupational studies, although the incidence data point to higher risk estimates compared to those from the Japanese A-bomb survivors. Further studies of the unique cohort of Mayak workers chronically exposed to external and internal radiation will allow improving the reliability and validating the radiation safety standards for occupational and public exposure.