Interim Analysis of a Trial Evaluating the Utility of Non-Targeted Biopsies for Colorectal Neoplasia Detection in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) affecting the colorectum (cIBD) have a 1.5- to 2-fold higher risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) relative to age- and sex-matched members of the general population.1 Intensive surveillance colonoscopy is recommended in this population to detect and treat early neoplastic lesions before they evolve to incurable cancers.2 Some societies advocate for widespread non-targeted ("random") biopsies throughout the colorectum to screen for "invisible" neoplastic lesions, in addition to targeted biopsies and/or resection of visible lesions.2 Despite the theoretical value of non-targeted biopsies in this setting, there are no high-quality, controlled data to support this practice. In addition to adding significant time and costs to colonoscopy screening, extensive biopsy sampling may also increase the risk of colorectal bleeding and bowel perforation, particularly in elderly patients and those receiving anticoagulant/antiplatelet therapies. With the widespread adoption of disease-modifying biologic and small molecule therapies,3 mucosal healing as a treatment end point,4 high-definition endoscopes,5 and endoscopy quality standards,6 as well as reports of very low neoplasia yield for non-targeted biopsies (0.1%-0.2% of biopsies),7 many experts have started to question the value of non-targeted biopsies as an adjunct for neoplasia surveillance in persons with cIBD.8 However, a recent large French cohort study reported that non-targeted biopsies still identify up to 20% of all neoplastic foci in persons with cIBD,9 albeit primarily in individuals with other major CRC risk factors.

Environmental Factors Associated with Risk of Crohn's Disease Development in the Crohn's and Colitis Canada - Genetic, Environmental, Microbial Project.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To date, it is unclear how environmental factors influence Crohn's disease (CD) risk and how they interact with biological processes. This study investigates the association between environmental exposures and CD risk and evaluates their association with pre-disease biomarkers. METHODS: We studied 4289 healthy first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with CD from the Crohn's and Colitis Canada - Genetic, Environmental, Microbial (CCC-GEM) project. Regression models identified environmental factors associated with future CD onset and their association with pre-disease biological factors, including altered intestinal permeability measured by urinary fractional excretion of lactulose to mannitol ratio (LMR); gut inflammation via fecal calprotectin (FCP) levels; and fecal microbiome composition through 16S rRNA sequencing. RESULTS: Over a 5.62-year median follow-up, 86 FDRs developed CD. Living with a dog between ages 5 and 15 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.96; P = .034), and living with a large family size in the first year of life (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.21-0.85; P = .016) were associated with decreased CD risk, whereas having a bird at the time of recruitment (HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.36-5.68; P = .005) was associated with an increased CD risk. Furthermore, living with a dog was associated with reduced LMR, altered relative abundance of multiple bacterial genera, and increased Chao1 diversity, whereas bird owners had higher FCP levels. Large family during participants' first year of life was associated with altered microbiota composition without affecting FCP or LMR. CONCLUSION: This study identifies environmental variables associated with CD risk. These variables were also associated with altered barrier function, subclinical inflammation, and gut microbiome composition shifts, suggesting potential roles in CD pathogenesis.

A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study of Digestive System Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Individuals With and Without Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: To study digestive system cancer risks in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in the biologic era. METHODS: We used population-level administrative and cancer registry data from Ontario, Canada (1994 - 2020) to compare people with IBD to matched controls (1:10 by sex and birth year) on trends in age-sex standardized cancer incidence and risk ratios of incident cancers and cancer-related deaths. RESULTS: Among 110,919 IBD and 1,109,190 controls, colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence (per 100,000 person-years) declined similarly in people with ulcerative colitis (average annual percentage change (AAPC) -1.81; 95% CI, -2.48, -1.156) and controls (AAPC -2.79; 95% CI, -3.44, -2.14), while small bowel cancer incidence rose faster in those with Crohn's disease (AAPC 9.68; 95% CI, 2.51, 17.3) than controls (AAPC 3.64; 95% CI, 1.52, 5.80). Extra-intestinal digestive cancer incidence rose faster in people with IBD (AAPC 3.27; 95% CI, 1.83, 4.73) than controls (AAPC -1.87; 95% CI, -2.33, -1.42), particularly for liver (IBD AAPC 8.48; 95% CI, 4.11, 13.1) and bile duct (IBD AAPC 7.22; 95 % CI, 3.74, 10.8) cancers. Beyond 2010, the incidences (and respective mortality rates) of colorectal (1.60; 95% CI, 1.46, 1.75), small bowel (4.10; 95% CI 3.37, 4.99), bile duct (2.33; 95% CI 1.96, 2.77) and pancreatic (1.19; 95% CI, 1.00, 1.40) cancers, were higher in people with IBD. DISCUSSION: Cancer incidence is declining for CRC and rising for other digestive cancers in people with IBD. Incidence and mortality remain higher in IBD than controls for colorectal, small bowel, bile duct and pancreatic cancers.

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. METHODS: Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. RESULTS: The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3-31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI -0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1-34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82-1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32-2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068-1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75-2.81). DISCUSSION: Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

Mediterranean-Like Dietary Pattern Associations With Gut Microbiome Composition and Subclinical Gastrointestinal Inflammation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Case-control studies have shown that patients with Crohn's disease (CD) have a microbial composition different from healthy individuals. Although the causes of CD are unknown, epidemiologic studies suggest that diet is an important contributor to CD risk, potentially via modulation of bacterial composition and gut inflammation. We hypothesized that long-term dietary clusters (DCs) are associated with gut microbiome compositions and gut inflammation. Our objectives were to identify dietary patterns and assess whether they are associated with alterations in specific gut microbial compositions and subclinical levels of gut inflammation in a cohort of healthy first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with CD. METHODS: As part of the Genetic, Environmental, Microbial (GEM) Project, we recruited a cohort of 2289 healthy FDRs of patients with CD. Individuals provided stool samples and answered a validated food frequency questionnaire reflecting their habitual diet during the year before sample collection. Unsupervised analysis identified 3 dietary and 3 microbial composition clusters. RESULTS: DC3, resembling the Mediterranean diet, was strongly associated with a defined microbial composition, with an increased abundance of fiber-degrading bacteria, such as Ruminococcus, as well as taxa such as Faecalibacterium. The DC3 diet was also significantly associated with lower levels of subclinical gut inflammation, defined by fecal calprotectin, compared with other dietary patterns. No significant associations were found between individual food items and fecal calprotectin, suggesting that long-term dietary patterns rather than individual food items contribute to subclinical gut inflammation. Additionally, mediation analysis demonstrated that DC3 had a direct effect on subclinical inflammation that was partially mediated by the microbiota. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these results indicated that Mediterranean-like dietary patterns are associated with microbiome and lower intestinal inflammation. This study will help guide future dietary strategies that affect microbial composition and host gut inflammation to prevent diseases.

REMIT-UC: Real-World Effectiveness and Safety of Tofacitinib for Moderate-to-Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis: A Canadian IBD Research Consortium Multicenter National Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to evaluate the real-world effectiveness and safety of tofacitinib for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: REMIT-UC is a Canadian multicenter cohort study. Standardized data collection was performed on 334 consecutive adult outpatients with UC treated with tofacitinib. The primary outcomes were achievement of clinical and endoscopic remission. Safety outcomes were reported using incidence rates (events/100 patient-years of exposure). A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate predictors of loss of response after tofacitinib dose de-escalation to 5 mg twice daily (BID). RESULTS: Clinical remission was achieved by 35.3% (106/300), 36.0% (104/289), and 35.2% (93/264) of patients at weeks 12, 24, and 52, respectively. Endoscopic remission was achieved by 18.5% (15/81), 23.0% (28/122), and 25.7% (35/136) of patients at weeks 12, 24, and 52, respectively. Incidence of serious infections, herpes zoster, and venous thromboembolism were 2.1 [0.9-4.2], 0.5 [0.1-1.9], and 1.1 [0.3-2.7], respectively. Among responders, 44.5% (109/245) lost response during follow-up, which was recaptured in 54.9% (39/71) of patients who re-escalated to 10 mg BID. Patients with a baseline Mayo endoscopic score of 3 (adjusted hazard ratio 3.60 [95% confidence interval: 1.70-7.62]) and prior biologic failure (adjusted hazard ratio 3.89 [95% confidence interval: 1.28-11.86]) were at a higher risk for losing response after dose reduction. DISCUSSION: One-third of patients with UC treated with tofacitinib achieved clinical remission with few serious adverse events. However, half of patients lost response with de-escalation, which was only partially recaptured with increasing the maintenance dose. Those with negative prognostic factors should be counselled about the risks and benefits of continuing high doses of tofacitinib.

AGA Clinical Practice Update on Endoscopic Surveillance and Management of Colorectal Dysplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: Expert Review.

Improvements in disease management, as well as endoscopic technology and quality, have dramatically changed the way in which we conceptualize and manage inflammatory bowel disease-related dysplasia over the past 20 years. Based on evolving literature, we propose a conceptual model and best practice advice statements for the prevention, detection, and management of colorectal dysplasia in people with inflammatory bowel disease. This expert review was commissioned and approved by the American Gastroenterological Association Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee and the American Gastroenterological Association Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the American Gastroenterological Association membership. It underwent internal peer review by the Clinical Practice Updates Committee and external peer review through standard procedures of Gastroenterology.

Earlier Anti-TNF Initiation Leads to Long-term Lower Health Care Utilization in Crohn's Disease but Not in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The timing of initiating biologic therapy in persons with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) is an area of ongoing controversy. In particular, there is concern that delaying the initiation of biologic therapy may lead to more treatment-resistant disease, which can result in more complications and hospitalizations. METHODS: We used health administrative data from Manitoba, Canada to identify all persons with a new diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) between 2001 and 2018 who received tumor necrosis factor antagonists (anti-TNF) therapy and had at least 1 year of post anti-TNF initiation follow-up. We measured the rates of hospitalization, surgery, and outpatient visits, prior to and for up to 5 years following anti-TNF initiation. We compared the rates of these health care utilization outcomes between persons receiving anti-TNFs within 2 years following diagnosis and those receiving anti-TNFs more than 2 years following IBD diagnosis. We used inverse probability treatment weighting to adjust for baseline differences in risk between the 2 groups. RESULTS: Among 742 persons with CD, early anti-TNF initiators had fewer IBD-specific and overall hospitalizations over the 5 years following the start of therapy. Incidence of resective surgery was also lower in earlier anti-TNF initiators with CD if the first year following initiation was excluded from the analysis. In 318 cases of UC, there was no impact of the timing of anti-TNF therapy on the rates of hospitalization and surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier administration of anti-TNF therapy is associated with reduced downstream health care resource utilization in CD, though these impacts are not evident in UC.

Association Between Endoscopist Specialty and Colonoscopy Quality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colonoscopy quality indicators provide measurable assessments of performance, but significant provider-level variations exist. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether endoscopist specialty is associated with adenoma detection rate (ADR) - the primary outcome - or cecal intubation rate, adverse event rates, and post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer rates. METHODS: We searched EMBASE, Google Scholar, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials from inception to December 14, 2020. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts. Citations underwent duplicate full-text review, with disagreements resolved by a third reviewer. Data were abstracted in duplicate. The DerSimonian and Laird random effects model was used to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs) with respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Risk of bias was assessed using Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions. RESULTS: Of 11,314 citations, 36 studies representing 3,500,832 colonoscopies were included. Compared with colonoscopies performed by gastroenterologists, those by surgeons were associated with lower ADRs (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.74-0.88) and lower cecal intubation rates (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.92). Compared with colonoscopies performed by gastroenterologists, those by other (non-gastroenterologist, non-surgeon) endoscopists were associated with lower ADRs (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.96), higher perforation rates (OR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.65-5.51), and higher post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer rates (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.14-1.33). Substantial to considerable heterogeneity existed for most analyses, and overall certainty in the evidence was low according to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations framework. CONCLUSION: Colonoscopies performed by surgeons or other endoscopists were associated with poorer quality metrics and outcomes compared with those performed by gastroenterologists. Targeted quality improvement efforts may be warranted.

Hospitalization With Clostridioides difficile in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease: a Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: Several studies have demonstrated higher rates of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We conducted a population-based study comparing the risk of hospitalization with CDI in children with and without IBD. METHODS: Using health administrative data and validated algorithms, we identified all children (<16 years) diagnosed with IBD in 5 Canadian provinces, then age and sex matched to 5 children without IBD. Province-specific 5-year incidence rates of hospitalization with CDI were pooled and generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing (1) children with and without IBD and (2) children with Crohn disease and ulcerative colitis. Hazard ratios (HR) from Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, sex, rural/urban household, and income were pooled using fixed-effects models. RESULTS: The incidence rate of CDI identified during hospitalization was 49.06 [95% confidence interval (CI), 39.40-61.08] per 10,000 person-years (PY) in 3593 children with IBD compared to 0.39 (95% CI, 0.13-1.21) per 10,000 PY in 16,284 children without IBD (crude IRR, 133.4, 95% CI, 42.1-422.7; adjusted HR, 68.2, 95% CI, 24.4-190.4). CDI was identified less often in children with Crohn disease than ulcerative colitis (crude IRR, 0.51, 95% CI, 0.32-0.82; adjusted HR, 0.69, 95% CI, 0.46-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: Children with IBD have a markedly higher incidence of CDI identified during a hospitalization relative to children without IBD. Consequently, symptomatic children with IBD who are hospitalized should be screened for CDI.

Surgery and the Subtype of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Impact the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism After Hospital Discharge.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) during hospitalization. It is unclear whether this association persists after hospital discharge. AIMS: We assessed the association between surgery and VTE following hospital discharge in IBD. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study between 2002 and 2016 in Ontario, Canada. Adults with IBD hospitalized for ≥ 72 h who underwent an intra-abdominal surgery were compared to hospitalized, nonsurgical IBD patients. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare VTE risk within 12 months of discharge. RESULTS: A total of 80,445 hospital discharges were analyzed: 60% Crohn's disease (CD) and 40% ulcerative colitis (UC). The median time to VTE was three times longer for nonsurgical patients with CD and 1.6 times longer for nonsurgical patients with UC. Compared with nonsurgical patients, surgery for CD was associated with a lower cumulative risk of VTE in the 2 weeks after discharge and persisted through to 12 months after discharge (adjusted HR 0.24; 95% CI 0.15-0.40). In contrast, urgent surgery for UC was associated with an increased risk of VTE. The increased risk was greatest at 2 weeks after discharge (aHR, 1.80; 95% CI 1.26-2.57) and declined progressively over the course of 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Surgery was associated with a greater risk of VTE after hospital discharge in UC but not CD. In patients with UC who have undergone urgent surgery, healthcare providers should consider an extended period of prophylaxis after hospital discharge.

Trends in Corticosteroid Use During the Era of Biologic Therapy: A Population-Based Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Corticosteroids are effective for inducing clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but not for maintaining remission. Reducing corticosteroid use and dependence is an important treatment goal since their use is associated with adverse events. The extent to which the improvements in IBD therapy have led to less corticosteroid use in the modern era remains unclear. METHODS: We used the University of Manitoba Inflammatory Bowel Disease Epidemiologic Database to assess the cumulative annual dosing of corticosteroids on a per-patient basis for all persons with IBD in the province of Manitoba between 1997 and 2017. Joinpoint analysis was used to assess for trends in corticosteroid use and to look at variation in the trends over time. RESULTS: The mean annual exposure to corticosteroids decreased from 419 mg/yr (1997) to 169 mg/yr (2017) for Crohn's disease (CD) (annual decline: 3.8% per year, 95% confidence interval 3.1-4.6) and from 380 to 240 mg/yr in ulcerative colitis (UC) (annual decline: 2.5% per year, 95% confidence interval 2.1-2.8). In CD, there was an acceleration in the rate of decline after 2007 (pre-2007, 1.9% decline per year; after 2007, 5.7% per year); there was no corresponding acceleration in the rate of decline in UC. DISCUSSION: Corticosteroid use has decreased in both CD and UC over the past 2 decades, becoming more pronounced after 2007 in CD. Potential explanations include introduction and increasing penetrance of biologic therapy in CD and greater awareness of corticosteroid-related adverse events in IBD. Further work is required understand the drivers of persistent corticosteroid use in IBD and how this can be further reduced.

Multivariable models for advanced colorectal neoplasms in screen-eligible individuals at low-to-moderate risk of colorectal cancer: towards improving colonoscopy prioritization.

BACKGROUND: Advanced colorectal neoplasms (ACNs), including colorectal cancers (CRC) and high-risk adenomas (HRA), are detected in less than 20% of persons aged 50 years or older who undergo colonoscopy. We sought to derive personalized predictive models of risk of harbouring ACNs to improve colonoscopy wait times for high-risk patients and allocation of colonoscopy resources. METHODS: We characterized colonoscopy indications, neoplasia risk factors and colonoscopy findings through chart review for consecutive individuals aged 50 years or older who underwent outpatient colonoscopy at The Ottawa Hospital (Ottawa, Canada) between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2012 for non-life threatening indications. We linked patients to population-level health administrative datasets to ascertain additional historical predictor variables and derive multivariable logistic regression models for risk of harboring ACNs at colonoscopy. We assessed model discriminatory capacity and calibration and the ability of the models to improve colonoscopy specificity while maintaining excellent sensitivity for ACN capture. RESULTS: We modelled 17 candidate predictors in 11,724 individuals who met eligibility criteria. The final CRC model comprised 8 variables and had a c-statistic value of 0.957 and a goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.527. Application of the models to our cohort permitted 100% sensitivity for identifying persons with CRC and > 90% sensitivity for identifying persons with HRA, while improving colonoscopy specificity for ACNs by 23.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Our multivariable models show excellent discriminatory capacity for persons with ACNs and could significantly increase colonoscopy specificity without overly sacrificing sensitivity. If validated, these models could allow more efficient allocation of colonoscopy resources, potentially reducing wait times for those at higher risk while deferring unnecessary colonoscopies in low-risk individuals.

Introduction of anti-TNF therapy has not yielded expected declines in hospitalisation and intestinal resection rates in inflammatory bowel diseases: a population-based interrupted time series study.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand the real-world impact of biologic therapy in persons with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), we evaluated the effect of marketplace introduction of infliximab on the population rates of hospitalisations and surgeries and public payer drug costs. DESIGN: We used health administrative data to study adult persons with CD and UC living in Ontario, Canada between 1995 and 2012. We used an interrupted time series design with segmented regression analysis to evaluate the impact of infliximab introduction on the rates of IBD-related hospitalisations, intestinal resections and public payer drug costs over 10 years among patients with CD and 5 years among patients with UC, allowing for a 1-year transition. RESULTS: Relative to what would have been expected in the absence of infliximab, marketplace introduction of infliximab did not produce significant declines in the rates of CD-related hospitalisations (OR at the last observation quarter 1.06, 95% CI 0.811 to 1.39) or intestinal resections (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.810 to 1.50), or in the rates of UC-related hospitalisations (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.39) or colectomies (OR 0.933, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.61). The findings were similar among infliximab users, except that hospitalisation rates declined substantially among UC patients following marketplace introduction of infliximab (OR 0.515, 95% CI 0.342 to 0.777). There was a threefold rise over expected trends in public payer drug cost among patients with CD following infliximab introduction (OR 2.98,95% CI 2.29 to 3.86), suggesting robust market penetration in this group, but no significant change among patients with UC (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.955 to 1.18). CONCLUSIONS: Marketplace introduction of infliximab has not yielded anticipated reductions in the population rates of IBD-related hospitalisations or intestinal resections, despite robust market penetration among patients with CD. Misguided use of infliximab in CD patients and underuse of infliximab in UC patients may largely explain our study findings.

Past and Future Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Based on Modeling of Population-Based Data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.

Longitudinal Trends in the Direct Costs and Health Care Utilization Ascribable to Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the Biologic Era: Results From a Canadian Population-Based Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing. The total direct costs of IBD have not been assessed on a population-wide level in the era of biologic therapy. DESIGN: We identified all persons with IBD in Manitoba between 2005 and 2015, with each matched to 10 controls on age, sex, and area of residence. We enumerated all hospitalizations, outpatient visits and prescription medications including biologics, and their associated direct costs. Total and per capita annual IBD-attributable costs and health care utilization (HCU) were determined by taking the difference between the costs/HCU accrued by an IBD case and their controls. Generalized linear modeling was used to evaluate trends in direct costs and Poisson regression for trends in HCU. RESULTS: The number of people with IBD in Manitoba increased from 6,323 to 7,603 between 2005 and 2015. The total per capita annual costs attributable to IBD rose from $3,354 in 2005 to $7,801 in 2015, primarily driven by an increase in per capita annual anti-tumor necrosis factor costs, which rose from $181 in 2005 to $5,270 in 2015. There was a significant decline in inpatient costs for CD ($99 ± 25/yr. P < 0.0001), but not for ulcerative colitis ($8 increase ±$18/yr, P = 0.63). DISCUSSION: The direct health care costs attributable to IBD have more than doubled over the 10 years between 2005 and 2015, driven mostly by increasing expenditures on biological medications. IBD-attributable hospitalization costs have declined modestly over time for persons with CD, although no change was seen for patients with ulcerative colitis.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors May Have Limited Efficacy for Complex Perianal Fistulas Without Luminal Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Complex perianal fistulas occurring in the absence of luminal inflammation (isolated perianal disease, IPD) may represent a specific phenotype of Crohn's disease (CD). AIM: We assessed the effectiveness of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-antagonists in patients with IPD compared to those with perianal CD (PCD) with luminal inflammation. METHODS: Patients were identified through our institutional radiology database and were classified as PCD or IPD based on the presence or absence of luminal inflammation by ileocolonoscopy and abdominal enterography. Consecutive adults (> 17 years) with recurrent IPD who were treated with TNF antagonists were matched by age and gender to patients with complex PCD (1:2 ratio). Fistula remission was defined as an absence of fistula drainage. Surgery-free survival was assessed by Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Twenty-two patients with IPD treated with a TNF antagonist were compared with 44 matched patients with PCD. A similar proportion of patients with IPD and PCD were treated with concomitant immunomodulators (55% vs. 66%) and underwent examinations under anesthesia prior to therapy (36% vs. 46%). Fistula remission at 3, 6, and 12 months was lower for the IPD cohort: 9.5% versus 34%; 19% versus 39%; and 19% versus 43%. Surgical intervention after initiating anti-TNF therapy was more common for patients with IPD (HR 3.99: 95% CI, 1.62-9.83; p = 0.0026). CONCLUSIONS: Fewer patients with IPD achieved fistula remission, and more required surgical intervention after anti-TNF therapy, suggesting that TNF antagonists may not be as effective in these patients.

Health Care Utilization and Costs for Patients With End-Stage Liver Disease Are Significantly Higher at the End of Life Compared to Those of Other Decedents.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) have progressively complex medical needs. However, little is known about their end-of-life health care utilization or associated costs. We performed a population-based study to evaluate the end-of-life direct utilization and costs for patients with ESLD among health care sectors in the province of Ontario. METHODS: We used linked Ontario health administrative databases to conduct a population-based retrospective cohort study of all decedents from April 1, 2010, through March 31, 2013. Patients with ESLD were compared with patients without ESLD with regard to total health care utilization and costs in the last year and last 90 days of life. RESULTS: The median age at death was significantly lower for ESLD decedents (65 y; interquartile range, 56-75 y) than for individuals without ESLD (80 y; interquartile range, 68-88 y). The median cost in the last year of life was significantly greater for patients with ESLD ($51,235 vs $44,456 without ESLD) (P < .001). Median ESLD end-of-life care costs also significantly exceeded those associated with 4 of the 5 most resource-intensive chronic conditions ($69,040 for ESLD vs $59,088 for non-ESLD) (P < .001). Cost differences were most pronounced in the final 90 days of life. During this period, patients with ESLD spent 4.7 more days in the hospital (95% CI, 4.3-5.1 d) than patients without ESLD (P < .0001), had significantly higher odds of dying in an institutional setting (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.7-1.9) (P < .0001), and incurred an additional $4201 in costs (95% CI, $3384-$5019; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based study in Canada, we found that patients with ESLD incur significantly higher end-of-life care costs than decedents without ESLD, predominantly owing to increased time in the hospital during the final 90 days of life.

Upfront Combination Therapy, Compared With Monotherapy, for Patients Not Previously Treated With a Biologic Agent Associates With Reduced Risk of Inflammatory Bowel Disease-related Complications in a Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although guidelines recommend inclusion of immune modulators in anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) initiation therapy for Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC), there are limited data on the incremental effectiveness of this treatment strategy from the real world. METHODS: We collected data from the Manitoba Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Epidemiology database on persons with CD (n=852) or UC (n=303), from 2001 through 2016, who began treatment with a TNF antagonist. New and/or continuing users of immunomodulators at the time anti-TNF therapy began were considered recipients of combination therapy. The main outcome was treatment ineffectiveness (IBD-related hospitalization, intestinal resection, corticosteroid use, or change of anti-TNF agent) during TNF antagonist-based therapy or within 90 days after the anti-TNF agent was discontinued. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between concomitant use of immunomodulators and treatment ineffectiveness. RESULTS: In patients with CD, combination therapy was associated with a significant decrease in likelihood of treatment ineffectiveness (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for ineffectiveness, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.79). However, this association was not significant in patients with UC (aHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.56-1.20). In patients with CD, combination therapy was also associated with increased time to first IBD-related hospitalization (aHR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36-0.80) and switching anti-TNF agents (aHR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.97), but not associated with IBD-related surgery (aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.12) or new or recurrent use of corticosteroids (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.55-1.04). CONCLUSION: In an analysis of a database of real-world patients with IBD, we associated initiation therapy with a combination immune modulators and anti-TNF agents with a decreased likelihood of treatment ineffectiveness for patients with CD but not UC.