Strategic roles for behaviour change communication in a changing malaria landscape.

Strong evidence suggests that quality strategic behaviour change communication (BCC) can improve malaria prevention and treatment behaviours. As progress is made towards malaria elimination, BCC becomes an even more important tool. BCC can be used 1) to reach populations who remain at risk as transmission dynamics change (e.g. mobile populations), 2) to facilitate identification of people with asymptomatic infections and their compliance with treatment, 3) to inform communities of the optimal timing of malaria control interventions, and 4) to explain changing diagnostic concerns (e.g. increasing false negatives as parasite density and multiplicity of infections fall) and treatment guidelines. The purpose of this commentary is to highlight the benefits and value for money that BCC brings to all aspects of malaria control, and to discuss areas of operations research needed as transmission dynamics change.

Progress in measles mortality reduction in Ethiopia, 2002-2009.

BACKGROUND: In 2002, Ethiopia adopted the African regional accelerated measles control strategies to reduce measles mortality. Routine measles vaccination is provided for infants at 9 months of age. A second opportunity for measles vaccination through supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) started in 2002, targeting children aged 6 months-14 years; periodic follow-up SIAs were conducted, targeting children aged 6-59 months from 2005 through 2009. METHODS: The administrative coverage data for routine measles vaccination and the respective World Health Organization-United Nations Children's Fund vaccination coverage estimates, as well as administrative coverage during measles SIAs and the measles case-based surveillance data from 2004 through 2009, were reviewed and analyzed. RESULTS: The administrative coverage with routine measles vaccination increased from 37% in 2000 to 76% in 2009. The SIAs coverage was 92% for the catch-up SIAs, 88% for the first follow-up SIAs, and 92% for the second follow-up SIAs. Measles case-based surveillance met the targets set for the 2 main performance indicators during 2005-2009. CONCLUSIONS: Following the adoption of the measles control strategies, a reduction in the number of reported measles cases and measles outbreaks was documented. However, measles outbreaks continued to occur in Ethiopia, mainly because of suboptimal measles vaccination coverage.

The epidemiology of rubella disease in Ethiopia: data from the measles case-based surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: Rubella is usually a mild rash illness. However, when a woman contracts rubella early in pregnancy, serious consequences may occur, including birth defects known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Information is limited on the epidemiology of rubella and CRS in Ethiopia. METHOD: Rubella cases reported through the measles case-based surveillance system during 2004-2009 were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 8212 samples were tested for rubella immunoglobulin (Ig) M, and 992 (12.1%) of these specimens had test results that were positive for rubella IgM. The age distribution of patients with rubella-positive cases ranged from 3 months to 44 years. The majority (94.7%) of the cases were in individuals <15 years of age. The proportion of positive specimens from urban areas (19.4%) was higher than that from rural areas (11.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Rubella is endemic in Ethiopia and mainly occurs among children and young adolescents. To better understand the burden of rubella and CRS, and to develop a national strategy for rubella control in Ethiopia, CRS surveillance will need to be established, and appropriate studies need to be conducted.

Time series analysis of trends in malaria cases and deaths at hospitals and the effect of antimalarial interventions, 2001-2011, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001-2011. METHODS: Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001-2005) and post-interventions (2006-2011) periods. FINDINGS: The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006-2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%-51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%-94%) and 73% (CI, 48%-86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006-2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors.

Estimated global resources needed to attain international malaria control goals.

OBJECTIVE: To provide the international community with an estimate of the amount of financial resources needed to scale up malaria control to reach international goals, including allocations by country, year and intervention as well as an indication of the current funding gap. METHODS: A costing model was used to estimate the total costs of scaling up a set of widely recommended interventions, supporting services and programme strengthening activities in each of the 81 most heavily affected malaria-endemic countries. Two scenarios were evaluated, using different assumptions about the effect of interventions on the needs for diagnosis and treatment. Current health expenditures and funding for malaria control were compared to estimated needs. FINDINGS: A total of US$ 38 to 45 billion will be required from 2006 to 2015. The average cost during this period is US$ 3.8 to 4.5 billion per year. The average costs for Africa are US$ 1.7 billion and US$ 2.2 billion per year in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively; outside Africa, the corresponding costs are US$ 2.1 billion and US$ 2.4 billion. CONCLUSION: While these estimates should not be used as a template for country-level planning, they provide an indication of the scale and scope of resources required and can help donors to collaborate towards meeting a global benchmark and targeting funding to countries in greatest need. The analysis highlights the need for much greater resources to achieve the goals and targets for malaria control set by the international community.