Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection.

BACKGROUND: Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse. METHODS: A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further. RESULTS: Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively. CONCLUSION: Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

Comparison of surgical skill acquisition by UK surgical trainees and Sierra Leonean associate clinicians in a task-sharing programme.

Background: Task-sharing in surgery is well established, with associate clinicians performing successful surgery in many countries. Little is known about the process of surgical skill acquisition by associate clinicians, or whether this differs from that of doctors. Methods: A blinded experimental study compared surgical skill acquisition by Sierra Leonean associate clinicians enrolled in an essential and emergency surgery training programme with that of a matched group of UK surgical trainees. After identical instruction, practice time and with identities disguised, trainees were videoed performing simulated surgery. Trainees were marked on 12 performance parameters and five behaviour characteristics using validated tools and qualitative comment. Results: The Sierra Leonean group comprised 19 associate clinicians and one doctor; the UK group comprised 20 doctors in their first 5 years of training. The UK group had significantly more surgical and postgraduate experience than the Sierra Leonean group. The Sierra Leonean trainees outperformed the UK trainees on three of the 12 performance parameters and four of the five behaviour characteristics. UK trainees did not outperform Sierra Leonean trainees on any parameter or characteristic. Qualitative differences in learning style were observed. Conclusion: Sierra Leonean associate clinicians demonstrated equal or superior skill in all objective parameters tested, despite having less experience than the UK doctors.

Hepatic artery aneurysm: an unusual cause for gastrointestinal haemorrhage.

Aneurysms of the hepatic artery are rare. The presenting features include abdominal pain, which may be associated with a mass. More acutely, patients present with signs of hypovolaemia secondary to rupture. The patient reported here presented with gastrointestinal haemorrhage of unknown aetiology. A computed tomography scan showed an aneurysm of a visceral artery. Subsequent angiography confirmed the presence of a leak in the hepatic artery. The patient refused surgical intervention and improved with supportive treatment only.

Study of ABO Blood Groups in Vitiligo.

ABO blood groups were determined in 110 cases of vitiligo and an equal number of controls among Indian Armed Forces personnel and their dependents. Statistically there was no significant difference.