Long-Term Stability of Coverage Among Michigan Medicaid Beneficiaries : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Medicaid, the primary source of insurance coverage for disadvantaged Americans, was originally designed as a temporary safety-net program. No studies have used long-run data to assess the recent use of the program by beneficiaries. OBJECTIVE: To assess patterns of short- and long-term enrollment among beneficiaries, using a 10-year longitudinal panel of Michigan Medicaid eligibility data. DESIGN: Primary analyses assessing trends in Medicaid enrollment among cohorts of existing and new beneficiaries. SETTING: Administrative records from Michigan Medicaid for the period 2011 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 3.97 million Medicaid beneficiaries. MEASUREMENTS: Short- and long-term enrollment in the program. RESULTS: The sample includes 3.97 million unique beneficiaries enrolled at some point between 2011 and 2020. Among a cohort of 1.23 million beneficiaries enrolled in 2011, over half (53%) were also enrolled in Medicaid in June 2020, spending, on average, two-thirds of that period (67%) on Medicaid. These beneficiaries, however, experienced substantial lapses in coverage, as only 25% were continuously enrolled throughout the period. Enrollment was less stable when assessed from the perspective of newly enrolled beneficiaries, of whom only 37% remained enrolled at the end of the study period. LIMITATION: Primary estimates from a single state. CONCLUSION: For many beneficiaries, Medicaid has served as their primary source of coverage for at least a decade. This pattern would justify increasing investments in the program to improve long-term health outcomes. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Self-funded.

Residual Confounding in Health Plan Performance Assessments: Evidence From Randomization in Medicaid.

BACKGROUND: Risk adjustment is used widely in payment systems and performance assessments, but the extent to which it distinguishes plan or provider effects from confounding due to patient differences is typically unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the degree to which risk-adjusted measures of health plan performance adequately adjust for the variation across plans that arises because of differences in patient characteristics (residual confounding). DESIGN: Comparison between plan performance estimates based on enrollees who made plan choices (observational population) and estimates based on enrollees assigned to plans (randomized population). SETTING: Natural experiment in which more than two thirds of a state's Medicaid population in 1 region was randomly assigned to 1 of 5 plans. PARTICIPANTS: 137 933 enrollees in 2013 to 2014, of whom 31.1% selected a plan and 68.9% were randomly assigned to 1 of the same 5 plans. MEASUREMENTS: Annual total spending (that is, payments to providers), primary care use, dental care use, and avoidable emergency department visits, all scored as plan-specific deviations from the "average" plan performance within each population. RESULTS: Enrollee characteristics were appreciably imbalanced across plans in the observational population, as expected, but were not in the randomized population. Annual total spending varied across plans more in the observational population (SD, $147 per enrollee) than in the randomized population (SD, $70 per enrollee) after accounting for baseline differences in the observational and randomized populations and for differences across plans. On average, a plan's spending score (its deviation from the "average" performance) in the observational population differed from its score in the randomized population by $67 per enrollee in absolute value (95% CI, $38 to $123), or 4.2% of mean spending per enrollee (P = 0.009, rejecting the null hypothesis that this difference would be expected from sampling error). The difference was reduced modestly by risk adjustment to $62 per enrollee (P = 0.012). Residual confounding was similarly substantial for most other performance measures. Further adjustment for social factors did not materially change estimates. LIMITATION: Potential heterogeneity in plan effects between the 2 populations. CONCLUSION: Residual confounding in risk-adjusted performance assessments can be substantial and should caution policymakers against assuming that risk adjustment isolates real differences in plan performance. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Arnold Ventures.

Excess Mortality and Years of Potential Life Lost Among the Black Population in the US, 1999-2020.

Importance: Amid efforts in the US to promote health equity, there is a need to assess recent progress in reducing excess deaths and years of potential life lost among the Black population compared with the White population. Objective: To evaluate trends in excess mortality and years of potential life lost among the Black population compared with the White population. Design, setting, and participants: Serial cross-sectional study using US national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1999 through 2020. We included data from non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black populations across all age groups. Exposures: Race as documented in the death certificates. Main outcomes and measures: Excess age-adjusted all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, age-specific mortality, and years of potential life lost rates (per 100 000 individuals) among the Black population compared with the White population. Results: From 1999 to 2011, the age-adjusted excess mortality rate declined from 404 to 211 excess deaths per 100 000 individuals among Black males (P for trend <.001). However, the rate plateaued from 2011 through 2019 (P for trend = .98) and increased in 2020 to 395-rates not seen since 2000. Among Black females, the rate declined from 224 excess deaths per 100 000 individuals in 1999 to 87 in 2015 (P for trend <.001). There was no significant change between 2016 and 2019 (P for trend = .71) and in 2020 rates increased to 192-levels not seen since 2005. The trends in rates of excess years of potential life lost followed a similar pattern. From 1999 to 2020, the disproportionately higher mortality rates in Black males and females resulted in 997 623 and 628 464 excess deaths, respectively, representing a loss of more than 80 million years of life. Heart disease had the highest excess mortality rates, and the excess years of potential life lost rates were largest among infants and middle-aged adults. Conclusions and relevance: Over a recent 22-year period, the Black population in the US experienced more than 1.63 million excess deaths and more than 80 million excess years of life lost when compared with the White population. After a period of progress in reducing disparities, improvements stalled, and differences between the Black population and the White population worsened in 2020.

Association of Provider Performance with Changes in Insurance Networks.

BACKGROUND: Medicaid managed care plans change provider networks frequently, yet there is no evidence about the performance of exiting providers relative to those that remain. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between provider cost and quality and network exit. DESIGN: Observational study with provider network directory data linked to administrative claims from managed care plans in Tennessee's Medicaid program during the period 2010-2016. PARTICIPANTS: 1,966,022 recipients assigned to 9593 unique providers. MAIN MEASURES: Exposures were risk-adjusted total costs of care and nine measures from the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) were used to construct a composite annual indicators of provider performance on quality. Outcome was provider exit from a Medicaid managed care plan. Differences in quality and cost between providers that exited and remained in managed care networks were estimated using a propensity score model to match exiting to nonexiting providers. KEY RESULTS: Over our study period, we found that 21% of participating providers exited at least one of the Medicaid managed care plans in Tennessee. As compared with providers that remained in networks, those that exited performed 3.8 percentage points [95% CI, 2.3, 5.3] worse on quality as measured by a composite of the nine HEDIS quality metrics. However, 22% of exiting providers performed above average in quality and cost and only 29% of exiting providers had lower than average quality scores and higher than average costs. Overall, exiting providers had lower aggregate costs in terms of the annual unadjusted cost of care per-member-month - $21.57 [95% CI, - $41.02, - $2.13], though difference in annual risk-adjusted cost per-member-month was nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Providers exiting Medicaid managed care plans appear to have lower quality scores in the year prior to their exit than the providers who remain in network. Our study did not show that managed care plans disproportionately drop high-cost providers.

National Referral and Treatment Patterns Among Mental Health Pediatric Primary Care Visits.

The current study explored factors that predict referral from pediatric primary care to mental health specialty care among a nationally representative sample of visits (N = 2056). Results of a logistic regression indicated that patient visits that included rarer/serious diagnoses (e.g., bipolar disorder) were more likely to receive a referral in comparison to those with ADHD (OR = 4.75, SE = 1.37). Other characteristics associated with increased likelihood of referral were those with comorbid mental health conditions (OR = 2.20, SE = 0.84) and those from a metropolitan area (OR = 2.23, SE = 0.75). Implications are discussed.

Differences in Hospitalizations Between Fee-for-Service and Medicare Advantage Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found lower hospitalization rates for enrollees in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans than for beneficiaries with fee-for-service (FFS) coverage. MA enrollment is increasing, especially for those newly eligible for Medicare, but little is known about how service use in FFS or MA differs for new beneficiaries. OBJECTIVE: To compare differences in rates of hospitalization between MA and FFS. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective study of hospitalization among FFS and MA respondents to the Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (MCAHPS) survey. Differences in hospitalization rates were assessed using multivariable logistic regression models that controlled for patient sociodemographic and health characteristics. Models included an interaction between age and coverage type to determine whether patterns of care were distinct for enrollees recently eligible for Medicare. STUDY POPULATION: In total, 259,335 respondents to the 2013 MCAHPS survey. RESULTS: In total, 14% of FFS and 12% of MA enrollees had ≥1 hospitalization in the 6 months before survey administration. Models adjusted for enrollee demographics found that MA enrollees had 0.81 the odds of being hospitalized relative to those with FFS coverage (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.84). Differences between groups were substantially reduced and no longer statistically significant when they were fully adjusted (adjusted odds ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.08). Models with interactions indicated no significant age differences in the MA/FFS hospitalization gap. CONCLUSION: Differences in hospital admissions between those with MA and FFS coverage appear to be primarily related to differences in health status.

Qualitative perspectives of primary care providers who treat Medicaid managed care patients.

BACKGROUND: Declining job satisfaction and concurrent reductions in Medicaid participation among primary care providers have been documented, but there is limited qualitative work detailing their first-hand experiences treating Medicaid patients. The objective of this study is to describe the experiences of some primary care providers who treat Medicaid patients using in-depth qualitative analysis. METHODS: We conducted qualitative interviews with 15 primary care providers treating Medicaid patients in a Northeastern state. Participant recruitment efforts focused on including different types of primary care providers practicing in diverse settings. Qualitative interviews were conducted using a semi-structured interview protocol. We developed a coding scheme to analyze interview transcripts and identify themes. RESULTS: Providers expressed challenges effectively meeting their patients' needs under current policy. They described low Medicaid reimbursement and underinvestment in care coordination programs to adequately address the social determinants of health. Providers shared other concerns including poor access to behavioral health services, discontinuous Medicaid coverage due to enrollment and renewal policies, and limited reimbursement for alternative pain treatment. Providers offered their own suggestions for the allocation of financial investments, Medicaid policy, and primary care practice. CONCLUSIONS: Underinvestment in primary care in Medicaid may detract from providers' professional satisfaction and hinder care coordination for Medicaid patients with complex healthcare needs. Policy solutions that improve the experience of primary care providers serving Medicaid patients are urgently needed to ensure sustainability of the workforce and improve care delivery.

Association Between Health Plan Exit From Medicaid Managed Care and Quality of Care, 2006-2014.

Importance: State Medicaid programs have increasingly contracted with insurers to provide medical care services for enrollees (Medicaid managed care plans). Insurers that provide these plans can exit Medicaid programs each year, with unclear effects on quality of care and health care experiences. Objective: To determine the frequency and interstate variation of health plan exit from Medicaid managed care and evaluate the relationship between health plan exit and market-level quality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort of all comprehensive Medicaid managed care plans (N = 390) during the interval 2006-2014. Exposures: Plan exit, defined as the withdrawal of a managed care plan from a state's Medicaid program. Main Outcomes and Measures: Eight measures from the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set were used to construct 3 composite indicators of quality (preventive care, chronic disease care management, and maternity care). Four measures from the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems were combined into a composite indicator of patient experience, reflecting the proportion of beneficiaries rating experiences as 8 or above on a 0-to-10-point scale. Outcome data were available for 248 plans (68% of plans operating prior to 2014, representing 78% of beneficiaries). Results: Of the 366 comprehensive Medicaid managed care plans operating prior to 2014, 106 exited Medicaid. These exiting plans enrolled 4 848 310 Medicaid beneficiaries, with a mean of 606 039 beneficiaries affected by plan exits annually. Six states had a mean of greater than 10% of Medicaid managed care recipients enrolled in plans that exited, whereas 10 states experienced no plan exits. Plans that exited from a state's Medicaid market performed significantly worse prior to exiting than those that remained in terms of preventive care (57.5% vs 60.4%; difference, 2.9% [95% CI, 0.3% to 5.5%]), maternity care (69.7% vs 73.6%; difference, 3.8% [95% CI, 1.7% to 6.0%]), and patient experience (73.5% vs 74.8%; difference, 1.3% [95% CI, 0.6% to 1.9%]). There was no significant difference between exiting and nonexiting plans for the quality of chronic disease care management (76.2% vs 77.1%; difference, 1.0% [95% CI, -2.1% to 4.0%]). There was also no significant change in overall market performance before and after the exit of a plan: 0.7-percentage point improvement in preventive care quality (95% CI, -4.9 to 6.3); 0.2-percentage point improvement in chronic disease care management quality (95% CI, -5.8 to 6.2); 0.7-percentage point decrease in maternity care quality (95% CI, -6.4 to 5.0]); and a 0.6-percentage point improvement in patient experience ratings (95% CI, -3.9 to 5.1). Medicaid beneficiaries enrolled in exiting plans had access to coverage for a higher-quality plan, with 78% of plans in the same county having higher quality for preventive care, 71.1% for chronic disease management, 65.5% for maternity care, and 80.8% for patient experience. Conclusions and Relevance: Between 2006 and 2014, health plan exit from the US Medicaid program was frequent. Plans that exited generally had lower quality ratings than those that remained, and the exits were not associated with significant overall changes in quality or patient experience in the plans in the Medicaid market.

What Works in Readmissions Reduction: How Hospitals Improve Performance.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals across the United States are pursuing strategies to reduce avoidable readmissions but the evidence on how best to accomplish this goal is mixed, with no specific clinical practice shown to reduce readmissions consistently. Changes to hospital organizational practices, a key component of context, also may be critical to improving performance on readmissions, but this has not been studied. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to understand how high-performing hospitals improved risk-stratified readmission rates, and whether their changes to clinical practices and organizational practices differed from low-performing hospitals. DESIGN: This was a qualitative study of 10 hospitals in which readmission rates had decreased (n=7) or increased (n=3). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 82 hospital staff drawn from hospitals that had participated in the State Action on Avoidable Readmissions quality improvement initiative. RESULTS: High-performing hospitals were distinguished by several organizational practices that facilitated readmissions reduction, that is, collective habits of action or interpretation shared by organization members. First, high-performing hospitals reported focused efforts to improve collaboration across hospital departments. Second, they helped postacute providers improve care by sharing the hospital's clinical and quality improvement expertise and data. Third, high performers enthusiastically engaged in trial and error learning to reduce readmissions. Fourth, they emphasized that readmissions represented bad outcomes for patients, de-emphasizing the role of financial penalties. Both high-performing and low-performing hospitals had implemented most clinical practice changes commonly recommended to reduce readmissions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight several organizational practices that hospitals may be able to use to enhance the effectiveness of their readmissions reduction efforts.

The ACA's 65th Birthday Challenge: Moving from Medicaid to Medicare.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded Medicaid to millions of low-income near-elderly Americans, facilitating access to health care services, but did not change income eligibility for Medicaid for those 65 years and older. Therefore, following the ACA's coverage expansion, many newly-insured older enrollees will face a complex insurance transition on their 65th birthday: they will lose Medicaid coverage and transition from Medicaid to Medicare as their primary insurer. This transition in primary health insurance coverage includes changes to benefits, patient cost-sharing, and provider reimbursement, which could have profound consequences on the use of health services and associated health outcomes for low-income seniors. Using data from 2012, we estimate that 1.6 million current Medicaid beneficiaries and an additional 1.6 to 2.9 million low-income individuals who will gain Medicaid coverage under the ACA will be likely to make this transition in the next decade. Primary care physicians and policymakers can help mitigate the potential consequences of this insurance transition by preparing patients for Medicare's more restrictive insurance coverage, encouraging patients to sign up for available low-income subsidies, and understanding how the loss of Medicaid coverage impacts out-of-pocket costs.

Hospital strategy uptake and reductions in unplanned readmission rates for patients with heart failure: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent reductions in national unplanned readmission rates, we have relatively little understanding of which hospital strategies are most associated with changes in risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRR). OBJECTIVE: We examined associations between the change in hospital 30-day RSRR for patients with heart failure and the uptake of strategies over 12-18 months in a national sample of hospitals. DESIGN: We conducted a prospective study of hospitals using a Web-based survey at baseline (November 2010-May 2011, n = 599, 91.0% response rate) and 12-18 months later (November 2011-October 2012, n = 501, 83.6% response rate), with RSRR measured at the same time points. The final analytic sample included 478 hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: The study included hospitals participating in the Hospital-to-Home (H2H) and State Action on Avoidable Rehospitalizations (STAAR) initiatives. MAIN MEASURES: We examined associations between change in hospital 30-day RSRR for patients with heart failure and the uptake of strategies previously demonstrated to have increased between baseline and follow-up, using unadjusted and adjusted linear regression. KEY RESULTS: The average number of strategies taken up from baseline to follow-up was 1.6 (SE = 0.06); approximately one-quarter (25.3%) of hospitals took up at least three new strategies. Hospitals that adopted the strategy of routinely discharging patients with a follow-up appointment already scheduled experienced significant reductions in RSRR (reduction of 0.63 percentage point, p value < 0.05). Hospitals that took up three or more strategies had significantly greater reductions in RSRR compared to hospitals that took up only zero to two strategies (reduction of 1.29 versus 0.57 percentage point, p value < 0.05). Among the 117 hospitals that took up three or more strategies, 93 unique combinations of strategies were used. CONCLUSIONS: Although most individual strategies were not associated with RSRR reduction, hospitals that took up any three or more strategies showed significantly greater reduction in RSRR compared to hospitals that took up fewer than three strategies.

Alternative Payment Models and Performance in Federally Qualified Health Centers.

Importance: Several state Medicaid agencies have transitioned from traditional fee-for-service to a value-centric alternative payment model (APM) to reimburse federally qualified health centers (FQHCs). Little is known about the effects of this shift on FQHC performance. Objective: To assess the association between APMs and the clinical performance, payer mix, risk profile, and financial sustainability of FQHCs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was performed in 684 FQHCs (representing 37 states plus the District of Columbia) that continuously operated between January 2009 and December 2021. Data on payer mix (eg, type of insurance) and risk profile (eg, proportion of patients with chronic conditions) of FQHC patients were obtained from the Uniform Data System, and clinic-level financial data (eg, revenue) were obtained from Internal Revenue Service form 990 tax documents. Data were analyzed between November 2022 and October 2023. Exposure: Initial rollout of a value-based payment model (ie, an APM) for FQHCs, as offered by state Medicaid program, between January 2013 and December 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were 4 audited process measures of health care quality (cervical and colorectal cancer screening and body mass index [BMI] assessment for adults and children) and 2 intermediate health outcome measures (hypertension control and diabetes control). A difference-in-differences design was used with staggered implementation comparing FQHCs before and after the initial APM rollout vs contemporaneous changes in FQHCs in states without APMs. Results: A total of 684 FQHCs (8892 FQHC-years) that served 17 823 959 patients in 2021 (57.3% female) were included in the study. Among FQHCs in states implementing APMs, significant differential increases in 3 of the 4 process quality measures were observed compared with FQHCs in states that did not implement an APM: colorectal cancer screening (3.24 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, 1.40-5.08 pp), adult BMI (3.19 pp; 95% CI, 0.70-5.68 pp), and child BMI (4.50 pp; 95% CI, 1.83-7.17 pp). There were also modest differential improvements in blood pressure control for individuals with hypertension (1.02 pp; 95% CI, 0.04-2.00 pp) and blood glucose control for individuals with type 2 diabetes (1.02 pp; 95% CI, 0.02-2.02 pp) compared with FQHCs in states without an APM. There was no evidence that the APM rollout was associated with clinics selecting healthier patients (-0.01 pp; 95% CI, -0.21 to 0.19 pp) or stinting on care (-0.02 visits; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.04 visits). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, introduction of Medicaid APM options for FQHCs was associated with modest, statistically significant increases in quality concentrated among FQHCs with APM models that explicitly incentivized quality. This finding suggests that APMs can be both a financially viable and a health-promoting model for reimbursement in the health care safety net.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Age-Specific All-Cause Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: The end of the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) provides an opportunity to fully describe pandemic-associated racial and ethnic mortality disparities. Age-specific excess mortality differences have important downstream implications, especially in minoritized race and ethnicity populations. Objectives: To characterize overall and age-specific all-cause excess mortality by race and ethnicity during the COVID-19 PHE and assess whether measured differences reflected changes from prepandemic disparities. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed data of all US residents and decedents during the COVID-19 PHE, aggregated by observed race and ethnicity (at time of death) and age. Statistical analysis was performed from March 2020 to May 2023. Exposures: COVID-19 PHE period (March 2020 to May 2023). Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause excess mortality (incident rates, observed-to-expected ratios) and all-cause mortality relative risks before and during the PHE. Results: For the COVID-19 PHE period, data for 10 643 433 death certificates were available; mean (SD) decedent age was 72.7 (17.9) years; 944 318 (8.9%) were Hispanic; 78 973 (0.7%) were non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native; 288 680 (2.7%) were non-Hispanic Asian, 1 374 228 (12.9%) were non-Hispanic Black or African American, 52 905 (0.5%) were non-Hispanic more than 1 race, 15 135 (0.1%) were non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and 7 877 996 (74.1%) were non-Hispanic White. More than 1.38 million all-cause excess deaths (observed-to-expected ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.12-1.18]) occurred, corresponding to approximately 23 million years of potential life lost (YPLL) during the pandemic. For the total population (all ages), the racial and ethnic groups with the highest observed-to-expected all-cause mortality ratios were the American Indian or Alaska Native (1.34 [95% CI, 1.31-1.37]) and Hispanic (1.31 [95% CI, 1.27-1.34]) populations. However, higher ratios were observed in the US population aged 25 to 64 years (1.20 [95% CI, 1.18-1.22]), greatest among the American Indian or Alaska Native (1.45 [95% CI, 1.42-1.48]), Hispanic (1.40 [95% CI, 1.38-1.42]), and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander (1.39 [95% CI, 1.34-1.44]) groups. In the total population aged younger than 25 years, the Black population accounted for 51.1% of excess mortality, despite representing 13.8% of the population. Had the rate of excess mortality observed among the White population been observed among the total population, more than 252 000 (18.3%) fewer excess deaths and more than 5.2 million (22.3%) fewer YPLL would have occurred. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of the US population during the COVID-19 PHE, excess mortality occurred in all racial and ethnic groups, with disparities affecting several minoritized populations. The greatest relative increases occurred in populations aged 25 to 64 years. Documented differences deviated from prepandemic disparities.

After 50 Years, Health Professional Shortage Areas Had No Significant Impact On Mortality Or Physician Density.

Since 1965, the US federal government has incentivized physicians to practice in high-need areas of the country through the designation of Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs). Despite its being in place for more than half a century and directing more than a billion dollars annually, there is limited evidence of the HPSA program's effectiveness at reducing geographic disparities in access to care and health outcomes. Using a generalized difference-in-differences design with matching, we found no statistically significant changes in mortality or physician density from 1970 to 2018 after a county-level HPSA designation. As a result, we found that 73 percent of counties designated as HPSAs remained physician shortage areas for at least ten years after their inclusion in the program. Fundamental improvements to the program's design and incentive structure may be necessary for it to achieve its intended results.

Risk Adjustment And Promoting Health Equity In Population-Based Payment: Concepts And Evidence.

The objective of risk adjustment is not to predict spending accurately but to support the social goals of a payment system, which include equity. Setting population-based payments at accurate predictions risks entrenching spending levels that are insufficient to mitigate the impact of social determinants on health care use and effectiveness. Instead, to advance equity, payments must be set above current levels of spending for historically disadvantaged groups. In analyses intended to guide such reallocations, we found that current risk adjustment for the community-dwelling Medicare population overpredicts annual spending for Black and Hispanic beneficiaries by $376-$1,264. The risk-adjusted spending for these populations is lower than spending for White beneficiaries despite the former populations' worse risk-adjusted health and functional status. Thus, continued movement from fee-for-service to population-based payment models that omit race and ethnicity from risk adjustment (as current models do) should result in sizable resource reallocations and incentives that support efforts to address racial and ethnic disparities in care. We found smaller overpredictions for less-educated beneficiaries and communities with higher proportions of residents who are Black, Hispanic, or less educated, suggesting that additional payment adjustments that depart from predictive accuracy are needed to support health equity. These findings also suggest that adding social risk factors as predictors to spending models used for risk adjustment may be counterproductive or accomplish little.

Association between Medicare eligibility at age 65 years and in-hospital treatment patterns and health outcomes for patients with trauma: regression discontinuity approach.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether health systems in the United States modify treatment or discharge decisions for otherwise similar patients based on health insurance coverage. DESIGN: Regression discontinuity approach. SETTING: American College of Surgeons' National Trauma Data Bank, 2007-17. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged between 50 and 79 years with a total of 1 586 577 trauma encounters at level I and level II trauma centers in the US. INTERVENTIONS: Eligibility for Medicare at age 65 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was change in health insurance coverage, complications, in-hospital mortality, processes of care in the trauma bay, treatment patterns during hospital admission, and discharge locations at age 65 years. RESULTS: 1 586 577 trauma encounters were included. At age 65, a discontinuous increase of 9.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval 9.1 to 10.1) was observed in the share of patients with health insurance coverage through Medicare at age 65 years. Entry to Medicare at age 65 was also associated with a decrease in length of hospital stay for each encounter, of 0.33 days (95% confidence interval -0.42 to -0.24 days), or nearly 5%), which coincided with an increase in discharges to nursing homes (1.56 percentage points, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 2.16 percentage points) and transfers to other inpatient facilities (0.57 percentage points, 0.33 to 0.80 percentage points), and a large decrease in discharges to home (1.99 percentage points, -2.73 to -1.27 percentage points). Relatively small (or no) changes were observed in treatment patterns during the patients' hospital admission, including no changes in potentially life saving treatments (eg, blood transfusions) or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that differences in treatment for otherwise similar patients with trauma with different forms of insurance coverage arose during the discharge planning process, with little evidence that health systems modified treatment decisions based on patients' coverage.

Geographical Variation in Health Spending Across the US Among Privately Insured Individuals and Enrollees in Medicaid and Medicare.

Importance: Little is known about small-area variations in health care spending and utilization across the 3 major funders of health care in the US: Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers. Objective: To measure regional health spending and utilization across Medicare, Medicaid, and the privately insured; to observe whether there are regions that are simultaneously low spending for all 3 payers; and to determine what factors are correlated with regional spending and utilization by payer. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational cross-sectional analysis of the US health system in 2016 and 2017 for 241 of 306 hospital referral regions (HRRs) and 2 states. Participants include individuals with employer-sponsored coverage from Aetna, Humana, or UnitedHealth; individuals with Medicaid fee-for-service coverage in 2016 and 2017; and individuals with Medicare coverage. The analysis was carried out from January 2020 to May 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Spending per beneficiary and inpatient days per beneficiary by payer and overall. Results: The data include 25 381 167 individuals with employer-sponsored coverage, 69 891 299 with Medicaid coverage in 2016 and 2017, and 26 711 426 individuals with Medicare fee-for-service coverage. The percentage of enrollees who identified as female was 54.1% in the Medicaid program, 56.2% in the Medicare program, and 50.4% in private insurance. The mean (SD) age was 26.9 (21.8) years for Medicaid and 75.0 (7.9) years for Medicare enrollees; for private insurance enrollees, just age brackets were reported: 18 to 24 years (15.9%), 25 to 34 years (24.2%), 35 to 44 years (21.3%), 45 to 54 years (20.8%), and 55 to 64 years (17.8%). In 2017, the mean (SD) HRR-level spending per beneficiary was $4441 ($710) for private insurance, $10 281 ($1294) for Medicare, and $6127 ($1428) for Medicaid. Across HRRs, the correlation coefficients and 95% CIs were 0.020 (-0.106 to 0.146; P = .76) for private insurance and Medicare spending, 0.213 (0.090 to 0.330; P < .001) for private insurance and Medicaid, and 0.162 (0.037 to 0.282; P < .01) for Medicare and Medicaid. Just 3 HRRs (Boulder, Colorado; Bloomington, Illinois; and Olympia, Washington) were in the lowest spending quintile for all 3 insurance programs; 4 HRRs were in the highest (The Bronx, New York; Manhattan, New York; White Plains, New York; and Dallas, Texas). By contrast, the correlation coefficients and 95% CIs for utilization, measured in hospital days, were 0.465 (0.361 to 0.559; P < .001) for private insurance and Medicare, 0.527 (0.429 to 0.612; P < .001) for private insurance and Medicaid, and 0.278 (0.157 to 0.390; P < .001) for Medicare and Medicaid. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that payer-specific factors are correlated with health spending variation among Medicare beneficiaries, Medicaid beneficiaries, and the commercially insured and that payer-specific policies will be necessary to improve efficiency in the US health sector.

Disparities in Health Care Spending and Utilization Among Black and White Medicaid Enrollees.

Importance: Administrative records indicate that more than half of the 80 million Medicaid enrollees identify as belonging to a racial and ethnic minority group. Despite this, disparities within the Medicaid program remain understudied. For example, we know of no studies examining racial differences in Medicaid spending, a potential measure of how equitably state resources are allocated. Objectives: To examine whether and to what extent there are differences in health care spending and utilization between Black and White enrollees in Medicaid. Design Setting and Participants: This cross-sectional study used calendar year 2016 administrative data from 3 state Medicaid programs and included 1 966 689 Black and White Medicaid enrollees. Analyses were performed between January 28, 2021, and October 18, 2021. Exposures: Self-reported race. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates and racial differences in health care spending and utilization (including Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set [HEDIS] access measures). Results: Of 1 966 689 Medicaid adults and children (mean [SD] age, 20.3 [17.1] years; 1 119 136 [56.9%] female), 867 183 (44.1%) self-identified as non-Hispanic Black and 1 099 506 (55.9%) self-identified as non-Hispanic White. Results were adjusted for age, sex, Medicaid eligibility category, zip code, health status, and usual source of care. On average, annual spending on Black adult (19 years or older) Medicaid enrollees was $317 (95% CI, $259-$375) lower than White enrollees, a 6% difference. Among children (18 years or younger), annual spending on Black enrollees was $256 (14%) lower (95% CI, $222-$290). Adult Black enrollees also had 19.3 (95% CI, 16.78-21.84), or 4%, fewer primary care encounters per 100 enrollees per year compared with White enrollees. Among children, the differences in primary care utilization were larger: Black enrollees had 90.1 (95% CI, 88.2-91.8) fewer primary care encounters per 100 enrollees per year compared with White enrollees, a 23% difference. Black enrollees had lower utilization of most other services, including high-value prescription drugs, but higher emergency department use and rates of HEDIS preventive screenings. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of US Medicaid enrollees in 3 states, Black enrollees generated lower spending and used fewer services, including primary care and recommended care for acute and chronic conditions, but had substantially higher emergency department use. While Black enrollees had higher rates of HEDIS preventive screenings, ensuring equitable access to all services in Medicaid must remain a national priority.

Trends in Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Barriers to Timely Medical Care Among Adults in the US, 1999 to 2018.

Importance: Racial and ethnic disparities in delayed medical care for reasons that are not directly associated with the cost of care remain understudied. Objective: To describe trends in racial and ethnic disparities in barriers to timely medical care among adults during a recent 20-year period. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a serial cross-sectional study of 590 603 noninstitutionalized adults in the US using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 1999 to 2018. Data analyses were performed from December 2021 through August 2022. Exposures: Self-reported race, ethnicity, household income, and sex. Main Outcomes and Measures: Temporal trends in disparities regarding 5 specific barriers to timely medical care: inability to get through by telephone, no appointment available soon enough, long waiting times, inconvenient office or clinic hours, and lack of transportation. Results: The study cohort comprised 590 603 adult respondents (mean [SE] age, 46.00 [0.07] years; 329 638 [51.9%] female; 27 447 [4.7%] Asian, 83 929 [11.8%] Black, 98 692 [13.8%] Hispanic/Latino, and 380 535 [69.7%] White). In 1999, the proportion of each race and ethnicity group reporting any of the 5 barriers to timely medical care was 7.3% among the Asian group; 6.9%, Black; 7.9%, Hispanic/Latino; and 7.0%, White (P > .05 for each difference compared with White individuals). From 1999 to 2018, this proportion increased across all 4 race and ethnicity groups (by 5.7, 8.0, 8.1, and 5.9 percentage points [pp] among Asian, Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White individuals, respectively; P < .001 for each), slightly increasing the disparities between groups. In 2018, compared with White individuals, the proportion reporting any barrier was 2.1 and 3.1 pp higher among Black and Hispanic/Latino individuals (P = .03 and P = .001, respectively). There was no significant difference in prevalence between Asian and White individuals. There was a significant increase in the difference in prevalence between Black individuals and White individuals who reported delaying care because of long waiting times at the clinic or medical office and because of a lack of transportation (1.5 pp and 1.8 pp; P = .03 and P = .01, respectively). In addition, the difference in prevalence between Hispanic/Latino and White individuals who reported delaying care because of long waiting times increased significantly (2.6 pp; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this serial cross-sectional study of data from the National Health Interview Survey suggest that barriers to timely medical care in the US increased for all population groups from 1999 to 2018, with associated increases in disparities among race and ethnicity groups. Interventions beyond those currently implemented are needed to improve access to medical care and to eliminate disparities among race and ethnicity groups.

In Medicaid Managed Care Networks, Care Is Highly Concentrated Among A Small Percentage Of Physicians.

States have increasingly outsourced the provision of Medicaid services to private managed care plans. To ensure that plans maintain access to care, many states set network adequacy standards that require plans to contract with a minimum number of physicians. In this study we used data from the period 2015-17 for four states to assess the level of Medicaid participation among physicians listed in the provider network directories of each managed care plan. We found that about one-third of outpatient primary care and specialist physicians contracted with Medicaid managed care plans in our sample saw fewer than ten Medicaid beneficiaries in a year. Care was highly concentrated: 25 percent of primary care physicians provided 86 percent of the care, and 25 percent of specialists, on average, provided 75 percent of the care. Our findings suggest that current network adequacy standards might not reflect actual access; new methods are needed that account for beneficiaries' preferences and physicians' willingness to serve Medicaid patients.