RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Reduced birthweight is associated with adverse perinatal and long-term outcomes. A few studies examined the association between climatic factors and birthweight with inconsistent results probably due to differences in exposure assessment, statistical models, climatic parameters, and study populations. METHODS: We obtained data from the Republic of Cyprus birth registry from 2007 to 2020, and matched climatic exposures (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, temperature variability, humidity variability) by the hospital district at birth. We used distributed lag models to examine the association between term birthweight, temperature, humidity, and their variability to identify critical windows. Our models were adjusted for coarse particulate matter level (≤10 µm [PM10), and individual-level covariates. Subgroup analysis was conducted to examine effect modification by maternal age and education. RESULTS: We identified two critical windows of exposure to ambient temperature at early and late pregnancy. The cumulative change of birthweight per 5 °C increases in mean weekly temperature was -57.27 (2%) (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 99.62 (3.1%), -14.92 (0.5%)) and -79.2 (2.5%) (95%CI: 117.03 (3.5%), -41.52 (1.3%)) grams during weeks 1-8 and weeks 28-37, respectively. There was no significant effect of humidity, temperature variability, or humidity variability on birthweight. Based on subgroup analysis, mothers with post-secondary education were more sensitive to temperature, but the marginal significance of differences in effect estimates may be linked with differences in sample size. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that higher ambient temperature exposure during early and late pregnancy is associated with lower birthweight in main and subgroup analysis. The findings demonstrate in a country highly impacted by climate change like Cyprus that rising temperatures may be associated with perinatal outcomes in susceptible populations during sensitive windows of exposure.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Heat-related mortality has become a growing public health concern in light of climate change. However, few studies have quantified the climate-attributable health burden in Cyprus, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study aims to estimate the heat-related mortality in Cyprus for all future decades in the 21st century under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios. METHODS: We applied distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline associations between temperature and mortality from 2004 to 2019 (data obtained from Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment and the Health Monitoring Unit of the Cyprus Ministry of Health). The relationships were then extrapolated to future daily mean temperatures derived from downscaled global climate projections from General Circulation Models. Attributable number of deaths were calculated to determine the excess heat-related health burden compared to the baseline decade of 2000-2009 in the additive scale. The analysis process was repeated for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and mortality among males, females, and adults younger or older than 65. We assumed a static population and demographic structure, no adaptation to hot temperatures over time, and did not evaluate potential interaction between temperature and humidity. RESULTS: Compared to 2000-2009, heat-related total mortality is projected to increase by 2.7% (95% empirical confidence interval: 0.6, 4.0) and 4.75% (2.2, 7.1) by the end of the century in the moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is expected to be an important cause of heat-related death with projected increases of 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) and 6% (2.6, 9.0) by the end of the century. Reducing carbon emission to the moderate scenario can help avoid 75% of the predicted increase in all-cause heat-related mortality by the end of the century relative to the extreme scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that climate change mitigation and sustainable adaptation strategies are crucial to reduce the anticipated heat-attributable health burden, particularly in Cyprus, where adaptation strategies such as air conditioning is nearing capacity.