A simple heuristic for allocating opioid settlement funding to reduce overdose mortality in the United States.

As resolution for opioid-related claims and litigation against pharmaceutical manufacturers and other stakeholders, state and local governments are newly eligible for millions of dollars of settlement funding to address the overdose crisis in the United States. To inform effective use of opioid settlement funds, we propose a simple framework that highlights the principal determinants of overdose mortality: the number of people at risk of overdose each year, the average annual number of overdoses per person at risk, and the average probability of death per overdose event. We assert that the annual number of overdose deaths is a function of these three determinants, all of which can be modified through public health intervention. Our proposed heuristic depicts how each of these drivers of drug-related mortality - and the corresponding interventions designed to address each term - operate both in isolation and in conjunction. We intend for this framework to be used by policymakers as a tool for identifying and evaluating public health interventions and funding priorities that will most effectively address the structural forces shaping the overdose crisis and reduce overdose deaths.

Racial/ethnic differences in receipt of naloxone distributed by opioid overdose prevention programs in New York City.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in the receipt of naloxone distributed by opioid overdose prevention programs (OOPPs) in New York City (NYC). METHODS: We used naloxone recipient racial/ethnic data collected by OOPPs from April 2018 to March 2019. We aggregated quarterly neighborhood-specific rates of naloxone receipt and other covariates to 42 NYC neighborhoods. We used a multilevel negative binomial regression model to assess the relationship between neighborhood-specific naloxone receipt rates and race/ethnicity. Race/ethnicity was stratified into four mutually exclusive groups: Latino, non-Latino Black, non-Latino White, and non-Latino Other. We also conducted racial/ethnic-specific geospatial analyses to assess whether there was within-group geographic variation in naloxone receipt rates for each racial/ethnic group. RESULTS: Non-Latino Black residents had the highest median quarterly naloxone receipt rate of 41.8 per 100,000 residents, followed by Latino residents (22.0 per 100,000), non-Latino White (13.6 per 100,000) and non-Latino Other residents (13.3 per 100,000). In our multivariable analysis, compared with non-Latino White residents, non-Latino Black residents had a significantly higher receipt rate, and non-Latino Other residents had a significantly lower receipt rate. In the geospatial analyses, both Latino and non-Latino Black residents had the most within-group geographic variation in naloxone receipt rates compared to non-Latino White and Other residents. CONCLUSIONS: This study found significant racial/ethnic differences in naloxone receipt from NYC OOPPs. We observed substantial variation in naloxone receipt for non-Latino Black and Latino residents across neighborhoods, indicating relatively poorer access in some neighborhoods and opportunities for new approaches to address geographic and structural barriers in these locations.

Long-term Infective Endocarditis Mortality Associated With Injection Opioid Use in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The expansion of the US opioid epidemic has led to significant increases in infections, such as infective endocarditis (IE), which is tied to injection behaviors. We aimed to estimate the population-level IE mortality rate among people who inject opioids and compare the risk of IE death against the risks of death from other causes. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of injection opioid use. We defined injection behavior profiles by both injection frequency and injection techniques. We accounted for competing risks of death and populated the model with primary and published data. We modeled cohorts of 1 million individuals with different injection behavior profiles until age 60 years. We combined model-generated estimates with published data to project the total expected number of IE deaths in the United States by 2030. RESULTS: The probabilities of death from IE by age 60 years for 20-, 30-, and 40-year-old men with high-frequency use with higher infection risk techniques compared to lower risk techniques for IE were 53.8% versus 3.7%, 51.4% versus 3.1%, and 44.5% versus 2.2%, respectively. The predicted population-level attributable fraction of 10-year mortality from IE among all risk groups was 20%. We estimated that approximately 257 800 people are expected to die from IE by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The expected burden of IE among people who inject opioids in the United States is large. Adopting a harm reduction approach, including through expansion of syringe service programs, to address injection behaviors could have a major impact on decreasing the mortality rate associated with the opioid epidemic.

Cost-effectiveness and Budgetary Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Testing, Treatment, and Linkage to Care in US Prisons.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing and treatment uptake in prisons remains low. We aimed to estimate clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness (CE), and budgetary impact (BI) of HCV testing and treatment in United States (US) prisons or linkage to care at release. METHODS: We used individual-based simulation modeling with healthcare and Department of Corrections (DOC) perspectives for CE and BI analyses, respectively. We simulated a US prison cohort at entry using published data and Washington State DOC individual-level data. We considered permutations of testing (risk factor based, routine at entry or at release, no testing), treatment (if liver fibrosis stage ≥F3, for all HCV infected or no treatment), and linkage to care (at release or no linkage). Outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALY); cases identified, treated, and cured; cirrhosis cases avoided; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios; DOC costs (2016 US dollars); and BI (healthcare cost/prison entrant) to generalize to other states. RESULTS: Compared to "no testing, no treatment, and no linkage to care," the "test all, treat all, and linkage to care at release" model increased the lifetime sustained virologic response by 23%, reduced cirrhosis cases by 54% at a DOC annual additional cost of $1440 per prison entrant, and would be cost-effective. At current drug prices, targeted testing and liver fibrosis-based treatment provided worse outcomes at higher cost or worse outcomes at higher cost per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, fibrosis-based treatment restrictions were cost-effective at previous higher drug costs. CONCLUSIONS: Although costly, widespread testing and treatment in prisons is considered to be of good value at current drug prices.

HCV Testing and Treatment in a National Sample of US Federally Qualified Health Centers during the Opioid Epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) serve diverse communities in the United States (U.S.) and could function as important venues to diagnose and treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. OBJECTIVE: To determine HCV testing proportion and factors associated with treatment initiation, and treatment outcomes in a large sample of FQHCs around the U.S. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records of three hundred and forty-one FQHC clinical sites participating in the OCHIN network in 19 U.S. states. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) seen between January 01, 2012, and June 30, 2017. MAIN MEASURES: HCV testing proportion, stratified by diagnosis of opioid use disorder (OUD); treatment initiation rates; and sustained virologic response (SVR), defined as undetectable HCV RNA 6 months after treatment initiation. KEY RESULTS: Of the 1,508,525 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 88,384 (5.9%) were tested for HCV, and 8694 (9.8%) of individuals tested had reactive results. Of the 6357 with HCV RNA testing, 4092 (64.4%) had detectable RNA. Twelve percent of individuals with chronic HCV and evaluable data initiated treatment. Of those, 87% reached SVR. Having commercial insurance (aOR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.46-3.05), older age (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09), and being Hispanic/Latino (aOR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.38-2.53) or Asian/Pacific Islander (aOR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.46-4.19) were independently associated with higher odds of treatment initiation after multivariable adjustment. In contrast, women (aOR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.60-0.97) and the uninsured (aOR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09-0.25) were less likely to initiate treatment. Only 8% of individuals with chronic HCV were tested for HIV, and 15% of individuals with identified OUD were tested for HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 20% of individuals with identified OUD were tested for HCV. SVR was lower than findings in other real-world cohorts. Measures to improve outcomes should be considered with the expansion of HCV management into community clinics.

Prevalence and correlates of experiencing drug-related discrimination among people who use drugs presenting at emergency department at high risk of opioid overdose.

Objectives: Our objective is to determine if specific sociodemographic characteristics were associated with perceived drug-related discrimination among people who use drugs (PWUD) presenting for care in the emergency department (ED). Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Navigator trial, a randomized control trial of two behavioral interventions in the ED for people at risk of an opioid overdose. Participants included adult patients presenting to two Rhode Island EDs. Eligible participants included those high risk for an opioid overdose, resided or received most of their healthcare in Rhode Island, and were able to provide consent. The primary outcome of this analysis was self-reported feelings of drug-related discrimination by the medical community. The independent variables of interest included race/ethnicity, gender identity, and sexual orientation. Log-binomial multivariable regression models were constructed with all three independent variables of interest and a selection of sociodemographic covariates. Results: Of 620 eligible participants, 251 (40.5%) reported ever experiencing drug-related discrimination in their lifetime. In the adjusted model, participants who identified as women and participants who identified as LGBQIA+ were more likely to report experiencing drug-related discrimination from the medical community in EDs. Racial/ethnic minority groups were less likely than White (non-Hispanic) participants to report drug-related discrimination. Discussion: In this study population, White participants reported more drug-related discrimination than their minority counterparts, although female and LGBQIA+ patients reported more discrimination. Future studies should further assess the significance of these intersecting identities on self-reported discrimination. This knowledge could improve ED-based interventions, policies, and services for PWUD.

Changes to opioid overdose deaths and community naloxone access among Black, Hispanic and White people from 2016 to 2021 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: An interrupted time-series analysis in Massachusetts, USA.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was associated with a surge in opioid overdose deaths in Massachusetts, particularly affecting racial and ethnic minority communities. We aimed to compare the impact of the pandemic on opioid overdose fatalities and naloxone distribution from community-based programs across racial and ethnic groups in Massachusetts. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series. SETTING AND CASES: Opioid overdose deaths (OODs) among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic and non-Hispanic other race people in Massachusetts, USA (January 2016 to June 2021). MEASUREMENTS: Rate of OODs per 100 000 people, rate of naloxone kits distributed per 100 000 people and ratio of naloxone kits per opioid overdose death as a measure of naloxone availability. We applied five imputation strategies using complete data in different periods to account for missingness of race and ethnicity for naloxone data. FINDINGS: Before COVID-19 (January 2016 to February 2020), the rate of OODs declined among non-Hispanic White people [0.2% monthly reduction (95% confidence interval = 0.0-0.4%)], yet was relatively constant among all other population groups. The rate of naloxone kits increased across all groups (0.8-1.2% monthly increase) and the ratio of naloxone kits per OOD death among non-Hispanic White was 1.1% (0.8-1.4%) and among Hispanic people was 1.0% (0.2-1.8%). After the onset of the pandemic (March 2020+), non-Hispanic Black people experienced an immediate increase in the rate of OODs [63.6% (16.4-130%)], whereas rates among other groups remained similar. Trends in naloxone rescue kit distribution did not substantively change among any groups, and the ratio of naloxone kits per OOD death for non-Hispanic Black people did not compensate for the surge in OODs deaths in this group. CONCLUSIONS: With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a surge in opioid overdose deaths among non-Hispanic Black people in Massachusetts, USA with no compensatory increase in naloxone rescue kit distribution. For non-Hispanic White and Hispanic people, opioid overdose deaths remained stable and naloxone kit distribution continued to increase.

Racial/Ethnic differences in receipt of naloxone distributed by opioid overdose prevention programs in New York City.

Introduction: We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in the receipt of naloxone distributed by opioid overdose prevention programs (OOPPs) in New York City (NYC). Methods: We used naloxone recipient racial/ethnic data collected by OOPPs from April 2018 to March 2019. We aggregated quarterly neighborhood-specific rates of naloxone receipt and other covariates to 42 NYC neighborhoods. We used a multilevel negative binomial regression model to assess the relationship between neighborhood-specific naloxone receipt rates and race/ethnicity. Race/ethnicity was stratified into four mutually exclusive groups: Latino, non-Latino Black, non-Latino White and non-Latino Other. We also conducted racial/ethnic-specific geospatial analyses to assess whether there was within-group geographic variation in naloxone receipt rates for each racial/ethnic group. Results: Non-Latino Black residents had the highest median quarterly naloxone receipt rate of 41.8 per 100,000 residents, followed by Latino residents (22.0 per 100,000), non-Latino White (13.6 per 100,000) and non-Latino Other residents (13.3 per 100,000). In our multivariable analysis, compared with non-Latino White residents, non-Latino Black residents had a significantly higher receipt rate and non-Latino Other residents had a significantly lower receipt rate. In the geospatial analyses, both Latino and non-Latino Black residents had the most within-group geographic variation in naloxone receipt rates compared to non-Latino White and Other residents. Conclusions: This study found significant racial/ethnic differences in naloxone receipt from NYC OOPPs. We observed substantial variation in naloxone receipt for non-Latino Black and Latino residents across neighborhoods, indicating relatively poorer access in some neighborhoods and opportunities for new approaches to address geographic and structural barriers in these locations.

Brief Report: Use of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Prevent Rapid HIV Transmission Among People Who Inject Drugs in Rural Counties in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent HIV outbreaks among people who inject drugs (PWID) in nonurban US settings, syringe service programs (SSP) are often inaccessible in these communities. Furthermore, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) awareness and coverage for PWID is limited. We aimed to model the impact of PrEP on HIV transmission among PWID in a rural setting. SETTING: Using a calibrated agent-based model, we simulated HIV transmission in an adult population (n = 14,573 agents) in Scott County, Indiana between 2015 and 2024. METHODS: We modeled PrEP eligibility according to CDC guidelines for PWID. PrEP coverage increased by 15% points in the range 10%-70%. Two counterfactual scenarios were modeled: Unrestricted access for PWID and PrEP for SSP attendees . We calculated the number of new HIV infections and number of person-years on PrEP per averted infection. RESULTS: In the status quo scenario, 153 (95% Simulation Interval: 85, 259) new HIV infections occurred among PWID over 10 years. Compared with the status quo, 40% PrEP coverage resulted in 25% fewer HIV infections in the Unrestricted access for PWID scenario and 10% fewer HIV infections in the PrEP for SSP attendees scenario. The PYPAI was 21 and 43 in the Unrestricted access for PWID and PrEP for SSP attendees scenarios, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our modeling suggests that PrEP provides substantial benefit to PWID in rural US communities, with fewer restrictions on access providing the greatest effect. Control of HIV outbreaks will require expansion of public health interventions that meet the needs of all individuals.

Metamodeling for Policy Simulations with Multivariate Outcomes.

PURPOSE: Metamodels are simplified approximations of more complex models that can be used as surrogates for the original models. Challenges in using metamodels for policy analysis arise when there are multiple correlated outputs of interest. We develop a framework for metamodeling with policy simulations to accommodate multivariate outcomes. METHODS: We combine 2 algorithm adaptation methods-multitarget stacking and regression chain with maximum correlation-with different base learners including linear regression (LR), elastic net (EE) with second-order terms, Gaussian process regression (GPR), random forests (RFs), and neural networks. We optimize integrated models using variable selection and hyperparameter tuning. We compare the accuracy, efficiency, and interpretability of different approaches. As an example application, we develop metamodels to emulate a microsimulation model of testing and treatment strategies for hepatitis C in correctional settings. RESULTS: Output variables from the simulation model were correlated (average ρ = 0.58). Without multioutput algorithm adaptation methods, in-sample fit (measured by R2) ranged from 0.881 for LR to 0.987 for GPR. The multioutput algorithm adaptation method increased R2 by an average 0.002 across base learners. Variable selection and hyperparameter tuning increased R2 by 0.009. Simpler models such as LR, EE, and RF required minimal training and prediction time. LR and EE had advantages in model interpretability, and we considered methods for improving the interpretability of other models. CONCLUSIONS: In our example application, the choice of base learner had the largest impact on R2; multioutput algorithm adaptation and variable selection and hyperparameter tuning had a modest impact. Although advantages and disadvantages of specific learning algorithms may vary across different modeling applications, our framework for metamodeling in policy analyses with multivariate outcomes has broad applicability to decision analysis in health and medicine.

Comparing Projected Fatal Overdose Outcomes and Costs of Strategies to Expand Community-Based Distribution of Naloxone in Rhode Island.

Importance: In 2021, the state of Rhode Island distributed 10 000 additional naloxone kits compared with the prior year through partnerships with community-based organizations. Objective: To compare various strategies to increase naloxone distribution through community-based programs in Rhode Island to identify one most effective and efficient strategy in preventing opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical model study conducted from January 2016 to December 2022, a spatial microsimulation model with an integrated decision tree was developed and calibrated to compare the outcomes of alternative strategies for distributing 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually among all individuals at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island. Interventions: Distribution of 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually, focusing on people who inject drugs, people who use illicit opioids and stimulants, individuals at various levels of risk for opioid overdose, or people who misuse prescription opioids vs no additional kits (status quo). Two expanded distribution implementation approaches were considered: one consistent with the current spatial distribution patterns for each distribution program type (supply-based approach) and one consistent with the current spatial distribution of individuals in each of the risk groups, assuming that programs could direct the additional kits to new geographic areas if required (demand-based approach). Main Outcomes and Measures: Witnessed OODs, cost per OOD averted (efficiency), geospatial health inequality measured by the Theil index, and between-group variance for OOD rates. Results: A total of 63 131 simulated individuals were estimated to be at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island based on current population data. With the supply-based approach, prioritizing additional naloxone kits to people who use illicit drugs averted more witnessed OODs by an estimated mean of 18.9% (95% simulation interval [SI], 13.1%-30.7%) annually. Expanded naloxone distribution using the demand-based approach and focusing on people who inject drugs had the best outcomes across all scenarios, averting an estimated mean of 25.3% (95% SI, 13.1%-37.6%) of witnessed OODs annually, at the lowest mean incremental cost of $27 312 per OOD averted. Other strategies were associated with fewer OODs averted at higher costs but showed similar patterns of improved outcomes and lower unit costs if kits could be reallocated to areas with greater need. The demand-based approach reduced geospatial inequality in OOD rates in all scenarios compared with the supply-based approach and status quo. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study, variations in the effectiveness, efficiency, and health inequality of the different naloxone distribution expansion strategies and approaches were identified. Future efforts should be prioritized for people at highest risk for overdose (those who inject drugs or use illicit drugs) and redirected toward areas with the greatest need. These findings may inform future naloxone distribution priority settings.

Community-based naloxone coverage equity for the prevention of opioid overdose fatalities in racial/ethnic minority communities in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Opioid-related overdose death rates continue to rise in the United States, especially in racial/ethnic minority communities. Our objective was to determine if US municipalities with high percentages of non-white residents have equitable access to the overdose antidote naloxone distributed by community-based organizations. METHODS: We used community-based naloxone data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Rhode Island non-pharmacy naloxone distribution program for 2016-18. We obtained publicly available opioid-related overdose death data from Massachusetts and the Office of the State Medical Examiners in Rhode Island. We defined the naloxone coverage ratio as the number of community-based naloxone kits received by a resident in a municipality divided by the number of opioid-related overdose deaths among residents, updated annually. We used a Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations to analyze the relationship between the municipal racial/ethnic composition and naloxone coverage ratio. To account for the potential non-linear relationship between naloxone coverage ratio and race/ethnicity we created B-splines for the percentage of non-white residents; and for a secondary analysis examining the percentage of African American/black and Hispanic residents. The models were adjusted for the percentage of residents in poverty, urbanicity, state and population size. RESULTS: Between 2016 and 2018, the annual naloxone coverage ratios range was 0-135. There was no difference in naloxone coverage ratios among municipalities with varying percentages of non-white residents in our multivariable analysis. In the secondary analysis, municipalities with higher percentages of African American/black residents had higher naloxone coverage ratios, independent of other factors. Naloxone coverage did not differ by percentage of Hispanic residents. CONCLUSIONS: There appear to be no municipal-level racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone distribution in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, USA.

Evaluating equity in community-based naloxone access among racial/ethnic groups in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionate opioid-related overdose death rates in recent years. In this context, we examined inequities in community-based naloxone access across racial/ethnic groups in Massachusetts. METHODS: We used data from: the Massachusetts Department of Public Health on community-based overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs; the Massachusetts Office of the Chief Medical Examiner on opioid-related overdose deaths, and; the United States Census American Community Survey for regional demographic/socioeconomic details to estimate community populations by race/ethnicity and racial segregation between African American/Black and white residents. Race/ethnicity groups included in the analysis were African American/Black (non-Hispanic), Hispanic, white (non-Hispanic), and "other" (non-Hispanic). We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in naloxone distribution across regions in Massachusetts and neighborhoods in Boston descriptively and spatially, plotting the race/ethnicity-specific number of kits per opioid-related overdose death per jurisdiction. Lastly, we constructed generalized estimating equations models with a negative binomial distribution to compare the race/ethnicity-specific naloxone distribution rate by OEND programs. RESULTS: From 2016-2019, the median annual rate of naloxone kits received from OEND programs in Massachusetts per racial/ethnicity group ranged between 160 and 447 per 100,000. In a multivariable analysis, we found that the naloxone distribution rates for racial/ethnic minorities were lower than the rate for white residents. We also found naloxone was more likely to be distributed in racially segregated communities than non-segregated communities. CONCLUSION: We identified racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone receipt by individuals in Massachusetts. Additional resources focused on designing and implementing OEND programs for racial/ethnic minorities are warranted to ensure equitable access to naloxone.

Targeting community-based naloxone distribution using opioid overdose death rates: A descriptive analysis of naloxone rescue kits and opioid overdose deaths in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND: Rates of fatal opioid overdose in Massachusetts (MA) and Rhode Island (RI) far exceed the national average. Community-based opioid education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs are effective public health interventions to prevent overdose deaths. We compared naloxone distribution and opioid overdose death rates in MA and RI to identify priority communities for expanded OEND. METHODS: We compared spatial patterns of opioid overdose fatalities and naloxone distribution through OEND programs in MA and RI during 2016 to 2019 using public health department data. The county-level ratio of naloxone kits distributed through OEND programs per opioid overdose death was estimated and mapped to identify potential gaps in naloxone availability across geographic regions and over time. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2019, the statewide community-based naloxone distribution to opioid overdose death ratio improved in both states, although more rapidly in RI (from 11.8 in 2016 to 35.6 in 2019) than in MA (from 12.3 to 17.2), driven primarily by elevated and increasing rates of naloxone distribution in RI. We identified some urban/non-urban differences, with higher naloxone distribution relative to opioid overdose deaths in more urban counties, and we observed some counties with high rates of overdose deaths but low rates of naloxone kits distributed through OEND programs. CONCLUSIONS: We identified variations in spatial patterns of opioid overdose fatalities and naloxone availability, and these disparities appeared to be widening in some areas over time. Data on the spatial distribution of naloxone distribution and opioid overdose deaths can inform targeted, community-based naloxone distribution strategies that optimize resources to prevent opioid overdose fatalities.

Hepatitis C Management at Federally Qualified Health Centers during the Opioid Epidemic: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

BACKGROUND: The opioid epidemic has been associated with an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. Federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) have a high burden of hepatitis C disease and could serve as venues to enhance testing and treatment. METHODS: We estimated clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C testing and treatment at US FQHCs using individual-based simulation modeling. We used individual-level data from 57 FQHCs to model 9 strategies, including permutations of HCV antibody testing modality, person initiating testing, and testing approach. Outcomes included life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), hepatitis C cases identified, treated and cured; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Compared with current practice (risk-based with laboratory-based testing), routine rapid point-of-care testing initiated and performed by a counselor identified 68% more cases after (nonreflex) RNA testing in the first month of the intervention and led to a 17% reduction in cirrhosis cases and a 22% reduction in liver deaths among those with cirrhosis over a lifetime. Routine rapid testing initiated by a counselor or a clinician provided better outcomes at either lower total cost or at lower cost per QALY gained, when compared with all other strategies. Findings were most influenced by the proportion of patients informed of their anti-HCV test results. CONCLUSIONS: Routine anti-HCV testing followed by prompt RNA testing for positives is recommended at FQHCs to identify infections. If using dedicated staff or point-of-care testing is not feasible, then measures to improve immediate patient knowledge of antibody status should be considered.

Short-Term Effects and Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Hepatitis C Testing in Prenatal Care.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the clinical effects and cost-effectiveness of universal prenatal hepatitis C screening, and to calculate potential life expectancy, quality of life, and health care costs associated with universal prenatal hepatitis C screening and linkage to treatment. METHODS: Using a stochastic individual-level microsimulation model, we simulated the lifetimes of 250 million pregnant women matched at baseline with the U.S. childbearing population on age, injection drug use behaviors, and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection status. Modeled outcomes included hepatitis C diagnosis, treatment and cure, lifetime health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing universal prenatal hepatitis C screening to current practice. We modeled whether neonates exposed to maternal HCV at birth were identified as such. RESULTS: Pregnant women with hepatitis C infection lived 1.21 years longer and had 16% lower HCV-attributable mortality with universal prenatal hepatitis C screening, which had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,000 per QALY gained compared with current practice. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below $100,000 per QALY gained in most sensitivity analyses; notable exceptions included incremental cost-effectiveness ratios above $100,000 when assuming mean time to cirrhosis of 70 years, a cost greater than $500,000 per false positive diagnosis, or population HCV infection prevalence below 0.16%. Universal prenatal hepatitis C screening increased identification of neonates exposed to HCV at birth from 44% to 92%. CONCLUSIONS: In our model, universal prenatal hepatitis C screening improves health outcomes in women with HCV infection, improves identification of HCV exposure in neonates born at risk, and is cost-effective.

A Guide to the Economics of Hepatitis C Virus Cure in 2017.

This commentary reviews the core principals of cost-effectiveness and applies them to the rapidly evolving context of hepatitis C virus treatment in the United States. The article provides a foundation of evidence that hepatitis C virus treatment provides good economic value, even though it is expensive, and even when treating people who inject drugs who are at high risk for hepatitis C virus reinfection. The price of medications has decreased, but the high price continues to limit access to care. This wedge between cost effectiveness and affordability stands front and center as one of the leading obstacles to elimination.