From Theory to Practice: Mitigating the Harm of Online Harassment in Public Health.

This article uses the theoretical framework of the networked public to understand the dynamics of online harassment of public health professionals. Coauthors draw on their experiences with health communication on social media, in a local public health department, and in news media to illustrate the utility of this framework. Their stories also highlight the need to build a more proactive approach to online harassment in public health. The coauthors highlight recommendations that health communicators can take in the face of online harassment. We also call for a more coordinated community effort to create supportive environments for online health communication, including increased funding of local health departments and increased regulation of social media companies.

Discussions of miscarriage and preterm births on Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Experiences typically considered private, such as, miscarriages and preterm births are being discussed publicly on social media and Internet discussion websites. These data can provide timely illustrations of how individuals discuss miscarriages and preterm births, as well as insights into the wellbeing of women who have experienced a miscarriage. OBJECTIVES: To characterise how users discuss the topic of miscarriage and preterm births on Twitter, analyse trends and drivers, and describe the perceived emotional state of women who have experienced a miscarriage. METHODS: We obtained 291 443 Twitter postings on miscarriages and preterm births from January 2017 through December 2018. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was used to identify major topics of discussion. We applied time series decomposition methods to assess temporal trends and identify major drivers of discussion. Furthermore, four coders labelled the emotional content of 7282 personal miscarriage disclosure tweets into the following non-mutually exclusive categories: grief/sadness/depression, anger, relief, isolation, annoyance, and neutral. RESULTS: Topics in our data fell into eight groups: celebrity disclosures, Michelle Obama's disclosure, politics, healthcare, preterm births, loss and anxiety, flu vaccine and ectopic pregnancies. Political discussions around miscarriages were largely due to a misunderstanding between abortions and miscarriages. Grief and annoyance were the most commonly expressed emotions within the miscarriage self-disclosures; 50.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 49.1, 52.2) and 16.2% (95% CI 15.2, 17.3). Postings increased with celebrity disclosures, pharmacists' refusal of prescribed medications and outrage over the high rate of preterm births in the United States. Miscarriage disclosures by celebrities also led to disclosures by women who had similar experiences. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that increase in discussions of miscarriage on social media are associated with several factors, including celebrity disclosures. Additionally, there is a misunderstanding of the potential physical, emotional and psychological impacts on individuals who lose a pregnancy due to a miscarriage.

COVID-19 Misinformation Spread in Eight Countries: Exponential Growth Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemic of misinformation about COVID-19 transmission, prevention, and treatment has been going on since the start of the pandemic. However, data on the exposure and impact of misinformation is not readily available. OBJECTIVE: We aim to characterize and compare the start, peak, and doubling time of COVID-19 misinformation topics across 8 countries using an exponential growth model usually employed to study infectious disease epidemics. METHODS: COVID-19 misinformation topics were selected from the World Health Organization Mythbusters website. Data representing exposure was obtained from the Google Trends application programming interface for 8 English-speaking countries. Exponential growth models were used in modeling trends for each country. RESULTS: Searches for "coronavirus AND 5G" started at different times but peaked in the same week for 6 countries. Searches for 5G also had the shortest doubling time across all misinformation topics, with the shortest time in Nigeria and South Africa (approximately 4-5 days). Searches for "coronavirus AND ginger" started at the same time (the week of January 19, 2020) for several countries, but peaks were incongruent, and searches did not always grow exponentially after the initial week. Searches for "coronavirus AND sun" had different start times across countries but peaked at the same time for multiple countries. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns in the start, peak, and doubling time for "coronavirus AND 5G" were different from the other misinformation topics and were mostly consistent across countries assessed, which might be attributable to a lack of public understanding of 5G technology. Understanding the spread of misinformation, similarities and differences across different contexts can help in the development of appropriate interventions for limiting its impact similar to how we address infectious disease epidemics. Furthermore, the rapid proliferation of misinformation that discourages adherence to public health interventions could be predictive of future increases in disease cases.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

Reconstruction of Zika Virus Introduction in Brazil.

We estimated the speed of Zika virus introduction in Brazil by using confirmed cases at the municipal level. Our models indicate a southward pattern of introduction starting from the northeastern coast and a pattern of movement toward the western border with an average speed of spread of 42 km/day or 15,367 km/year.

Geotagged US Tweets as Predictors of County-Level Health Outcomes, 2015-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To leverage geotagged Twitter data to create national indicators of the social environment, with small-area indicators of prevalent sentiment and social modeling of health behaviors, and to test associations with county-level health outcomes, while controlling for demographic characteristics. METHODS: We used Twitter's streaming application programming interface to continuously collect a random 1% subset of publicly available geo-located tweets in the contiguous United States. We collected approximately 80 million geotagged tweets from 603 363 unique Twitter users in a 12-month period (April 2015-March 2016). RESULTS: Across 3135 US counties, Twitter indicators of happiness, food, and physical activity were associated with lower premature mortality, obesity, and physical inactivity. Alcohol-use tweets predicted higher alcohol-use-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Social media represents a new type of real-time data that may enable public health officials to examine movement of norms, sentiment, and behaviors that may portend emerging issues or outbreaks-thus providing a way to intervene to prevent adverse health events and measure the impact of health interventions.

Disparities in digital reporting of illness: A demographic and socioeconomic assessment.

Although digital reports of disease are currently used by public health officials for disease surveillance and decision making, little is known about environmental factors and compositional characteristics that may influence reporting patterns. The objective of this study is to quantify the association between climate, demographic and socio-economic factors on digital reporting of disease at the US county level. We reference approximately 1.5 million foodservice business reviews between 2004 and 2014, and use census data, machine learning methods and regression models to assess whether digital reporting of disease is associated with climate, socio-economic and demographic factors. The results show that reviews of foodservice businesses and digital reports of foodborne illness follow a clear seasonal pattern with higher reporting observed in the summer, when most foodborne outbreaks are reported and to a lesser extent in the winter months. Additionally, factors typically associated with affluence (such as, higher median income and fraction of the population with a bachelor's degrees) were positively correlated with foodborne illness reports. However, restaurants per capita and education were the most significant predictors of illness reporting at the US county level. These results suggest that well-known health disparities might also be reflected in the online environment. Although this is an observational study, it is an important step in understanding disparities in the online public health environment.

Using Twitter to Identify and Respond to Food Poisoning: The Food Safety STL Project.

CONTEXT: Foodborne illness affects 1 in 4 US residents each year. Few of those sickened seek medical care or report the illness to public health authorities, complicating prevention efforts. Citizens who report illness identify food establishments with more serious and critical violations than found by regular inspections. New media sources, including online restaurant reviews and social media postings, have the potential to improve reporting. OBJECTIVE: We implemented a Web-based Dashboard (HealthMap Foodborne Dashboard) to identify and respond to tweets about food poisoning from St Louis City residents. DESIGN AND SETTING: This report examines the performance of the Dashboard in its first 7 months after implementation in the City of St Louis Department of Health. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We examined the number of relevant tweets captured and replied to, the number of foodborne illness reports received as a result of the new process, and the results of restaurant inspections following each report. RESULTS: In its first 7 months (October 2015-May 2016), the Dashboard captured 193 relevant tweets. Our replies to relevant tweets resulted in more filed reports than several previously existing foodborne illness reporting mechanisms in St Louis during the same time frame. The proportion of restaurants with food safety violations was not statistically different (P = .60) in restaurants inspected after reports from the Dashboard compared with those inspected following reports through other mechanisms. CONCLUSION: The Dashboard differs from other citizen engagement mechanisms in its use of current data, allowing direct interaction with constituents on issues when relevant to the constituent to provide time-sensitive education and mobilizing information. In doing so, the Dashboard technology has potential for improving foodborne illness reporting and can be implemented in other areas to improve response to public health issues such as suicidality, spread of Zika virus infection, and hospital quality.

Combining Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance.

We present a machine learning-based methodology capable of providing real-time ("nowcast") and forecast estimates of influenza activity in the US by leveraging data from multiple data sources including: Google searches, Twitter microblogs, nearly real-time hospital visit records, and data from a participatory surveillance system. Our main contribution consists of combining multiple influenza-like illnesses (ILI) activity estimates, generated independently with each data source, into a single prediction of ILI utilizing machine learning ensemble approaches. Our methodology exploits the information in each data source and produces accurate weekly ILI predictions for up to four weeks ahead of the release of CDC's ILI reports. We evaluate the predictive ability of our ensemble approach during the 2013-2014 (retrospective) and 2014-2015 (live) flu seasons for each of the four weekly time horizons. Our ensemble approach demonstrates several advantages: (1) our ensemble method's predictions outperform every prediction using each data source independently, (2) our methodology can produce predictions one week ahead of GFT's real-time estimates with comparable accuracy, and (3) our two and three week forecast estimates have comparable accuracy to real-time predictions using an autoregressive model. Moreover, our results show that considerable insight is gained from incorporating disparate data streams, in the form of social media and crowd sourced data, into influenza predictions in all time horizons.

Using clinicians' search query data to monitor influenza epidemics.

Search query information from a clinician's database, UpToDate, is shown to predict influenza epidemics in the United States in a timely manner. Our results show that digital disease surveillance tools based on experts' databases may be able to provide an alternative, reliable, and stable signal for accurate predictions of influenza outbreaks.

Online reports of foodborne illness capture foods implicated in official foodborne outbreak reports.

OBJECTIVE: Traditional surveillance systems capture only a fraction of the estimated 48 million yearly cases of foodborne illness in the United States. We assessed whether foodservice reviews on Yelp.com (a business review site) can be used to support foodborne illness surveillance efforts. METHODS: We obtained reviews from 2005 to 2012 of 5824 foodservice businesses closest to 29 colleges. After extracting recent reviews describing episodes of foodborne illness, we compared implicated foods to foods in outbreak reports from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). RESULTS: Broadly, the distribution of implicated foods across five categories was as follows: aquatic (16% Yelp, 12% CDC), dairy-eggs (23% Yelp, 23% CDC), fruits-nuts (7% Yelp, 7% CDC), meat-poultry (32% Yelp, 33% CDC), and vegetables (22% Yelp, 25% CDC). The distribution of foods across 19 more specific food categories was also similar, with Spearman correlations ranging from 0.60 to 0.85 for 2006-2011. The most implicated food categories in both Yelp and CDC were beef, dairy, grains-beans, poultry and vine-stalk. CONCLUSIONS: Based on observations in this study and the increased usage of social media, we posit that online illness reports could complement traditional surveillance systems by providing near real-time information on foodborne illnesses, implicated foods and locations.

A Dirichlet process model for classifying and forecasting epidemic curves.

BACKGROUND: A forecast can be defined as an endeavor to quantitatively estimate a future event or probabilities assigned to a future occurrence. Forecasting stochastic processes such as epidemics is challenging since there are several biological, behavioral, and environmental factors that influence the number of cases observed at each point during an epidemic. However, accurate forecasts of epidemics would impact timely and effective implementation of public health interventions. In this study, we introduce a Dirichlet process (DP) model for classifying and forecasting influenza epidemic curves. METHODS: The DP model is a nonparametric Bayesian approach that enables the matching of current influenza activity to simulated and historical patterns, identifies epidemic curves different from those observed in the past and enables prediction of the expected epidemic peak time. The method was validated using simulated influenza epidemics from an individual-based model and the accuracy was compared to that of the tree-based classification technique, Random Forest (RF), which has been shown to achieve high accuracy in the early prediction of epidemic curves using a classification approach. We also applied the method to forecasting influenza outbreaks in the United States from 1997-2013 using influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). RESULTS: We made the following observations. First, the DP model performed as well as RF in identifying several of the simulated epidemics. Second, the DP model correctly forecasted the peak time several days in advance for most of the simulated epidemics. Third, the accuracy of identifying epidemics different from those already observed improved with additional data, as expected. Fourth, both methods correctly classified epidemics with higher reproduction numbers (R) with a higher accuracy compared to epidemics with lower R values. Lastly, in the classification of seasonal influenza epidemics based on ILI data from the CDC, the methods' performance was comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Although RF requires less computational time compared to the DP model, the algorithm is fully supervised implying that epidemic curves different from those previously observed will always be misclassified. In contrast, the DP model can be unsupervised, semi-supervised or fully supervised. Since both methods have their relative merits, an approach that uses both RF and the DP model could be beneficial.

Guess who's not coming to dinner? Evaluating online restaurant reservations for disease surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Alternative data sources are used increasingly to augment traditional public health surveillance systems. Examples include over-the-counter medication sales and school absenteeism. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine if an increase in restaurant table availabilities was associated with an increase in disease incidence, specifically influenza-like illness (ILI). METHODS: Restaurant table availability was monitored using OpenTable, an online restaurant table reservation site. A daily search was performed for restaurants with available tables for 2 at the hour and at half past the hour for 22 distinct times: between 11:00 am-3:30 pm for lunch and between 6:00-11:30 PM for dinner. In the United States, we examined table availability for restaurants in Boston, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami. For Mexico, we studied table availabilities in Cancun, Mexico City, Puebla, Monterrey, and Guadalajara. Time series of restaurant use was compared with Google Flu Trends and ILI at the state and national levels for the United States and Mexico using the cross-correlation function. RESULTS: Differences in restaurant use were observed across sampling times and regions. We also noted similarities in time series trends between data on influenza activity and restaurant use. In some settings, significant correlations greater than 70% were noted between data on restaurant use and ILI trends. CONCLUSIONS: This study introduces and demonstrates the potential value of restaurant use data for event surveillance.

Racism is an ethical issue for healthcare artificial intelligence.

There is growing attention and evidence that healthcare AI is vulnerable to racial bias. Despite the renewed attention to racism in the United States, racism is often disconnected from the literature on ethical AI. Addressing racism as an ethical issue will facilitate the development of trustworthy and responsible healthcare AI.

Association of Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Composition and Historical Redlining With Built Environment Indicators Derived From Street View Images in the US.

Importance: Racist policies (such as redlining) create inequities in the built environment, producing racially and ethnically segregated communities, poor housing conditions, unwalkable neighborhoods, and general disadvantage. Studies on built environment disparities are usually limited to measures and data that are available from existing sources or can be manually collected. Objective: To use built environment indicators generated from online street-level images to investigate the association among neighborhood racial and ethnic composition, the built environment, and health outcomes across urban areas in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using built environment indicators derived from 164 million Google Street View images collected from November 1 to 30, 2019. Race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic data were obtained from the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates; health outcomes were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020 Population Level Analysis and Community Estimates (PLACES) data set. Multilevel modeling and mediation analysis were applied. A total of 59 231 urban census tracts in the US were included. The online images and the ACS data included all census tracts. The PLACES data comprised survey respondents 18 years or older. Data were analyzed from May 23 to November 16, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated association between image-derived built environment indicators and census tract (neighborhood) racial and ethnic composition, and the association of the built environment with neighborhood racial composition and health. Results: The racial and ethnic composition in the 59 231 urban census tracts was 1 160 595 (0.4%) American Indian and Alaska Native, 53 321 345 (19.5%) Hispanic, 462 259 (0.2%) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, 17 166 370 (6.3%) non-Hispanic Asian, 35 985 480 (13.2%) non-Hispanic Black, and 158 043 260 (57.7%) non-Hispanic White residents. Compared with other neighborhoods, predominantly White neighborhoods had fewer dilapidated buildings and more green space indicators, usually associated with good health, and fewer crosswalks (eg, neighborhoods with predominantly minoritized racial or ethnic groups other than Black residents had 6% more dilapidated buildings than neighborhoods with predominantly White residents). Moreover, the built environment indicators partially mediated the association between neighborhood racial and ethnic composition and health outcomes, including diabetes, asthma, and sleeping problems. The most significant mediator was non-single family homes (a measure associated with homeownership), which mediated the association between neighborhoods with predominantly minority racial or ethnic groups other than Black residents and sleeping problems by 12.8% and the association between unclassified neighborhoods and asthma by 24.2%. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings in this cross-sectional study suggest that large geographically representative data sets, if used appropriately, may provide novel insights on racial and ethnic health inequities. Quantifying the impact of structural racism on social determinants of health is one step toward developing policies and interventions to create equitable built environment resources.

Association between wealth, insurance coverage, urban residence, median age and COVID-19 deaths across states in Nigeria.

This study measures associations between COVID-19 deaths and sociodemographic factors (wealth, insurance coverage, urban residence, age, state population) for states in Nigeria across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: February 27th 2020 to October 24th 2020 and October 25th 2020 to July 25th 2021. Data sources include 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) COVID-19 daily reports. It uses negative binomial models to model deaths, and stratifies results by respondent gender. It finds that overall mortality rates were concentrated within three states: Lagos, Edo and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja. Urban residence and insurance coverage are positively associated with differences in deaths for the full sample. The former, however, is significant only during the early stages of the pandemic. Associative differences in gender-stratified models suggest that wealth was a stronger protective factor for men and insurance a stronger protective factor for women. Associative strength between sociodemographic measures and deaths varies by gender and pandemic wave, suggesting that the pandemic impacted men and women in unique ways, and that the effectiveness of interventions should be evaluated for specific waves or periods.

Use of machine learning methods to understand discussions of female genital mutilation/cutting on social media.

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) describes several procedures that involve injury to the vulva or vagina for nontherapeutic reasons. Though at least 200 million women and girls living in 30 countries have undergone FGM/C, there is a paucity of studies focused on public perception of FGM/C. We used machine learning methods to characterize discussion of FGM/C on Twitter in English from 2015 to 2020. Twitter has emerged in recent years as a source for seeking and sharing health information and misinformation. We extracted text metadata from user profiles to characterize the individuals and locations involved in conversations about FGM/C. We extracted major discussion themes from posts using correlated topic modeling. Finally, we extracted features from posts and applied random forest models to predict user engagement. The volume of tweets addressing FGM/C remained fairly stable across years. Conversation was mostly concentrated among the United States and United Kingdom through 2017, but shifted to Nigeria and Kenya in 2020. Some of the discussion topics associated with FGM/C across years included Islam, International Day of Zero Tolerance, current news stories, education, activism, male circumcision, human rights, and feminism. Tweet length and follower count were consistently strong predictors of engagement. Our findings suggest that (1) discussion about FGM/C has not evolved significantly over time, (2) the majority of the conversation about FGM/C on English-speaking Twitter is advocating for an end to the practice, (3) supporters of Donald Trump make up a substantial voice in the conversation about FGM/C, and (4) understanding the nuances in how people across cultures refer to and discuss FGM/C could be important for the design of public health communication and intervention.

COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022.

Importance: Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased. Objective: To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023. Exposures: Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates. Results: There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.