Preoperative chemotherapy response and survival in patients with colorectal cancer peritoneal metastases.

Treatment guidelines provided by PRODIGE-7 recommend perioperative systemic chemotherapy before cytoreductive surgery (CRS) for colorectal cancer peritoneal metastases (CRPM). Toxicity with multimodal treatment needs to be better defined. Chemotherapy response and impact on survival have not been reported. We assessed CRPM patients who received systemic oxaliplatin/irinotecan before CRS (preoperative) with Mitomycin C (35 mg/m2, 90 min) or Oxaliplatin (368 mg/m2, 30 min) heated intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC). Secondary analysis was performed from a prospective database. Overall survival (OS) in chemotherapy responders (R) and nonresponders (NR) was compared. Toxicity was assessed by rate of adverse events (AEs). From April 2005 to April 2021, 436 patients underwent CRS + HIPEC; 125 (29%) received preoperative chemotherapy. The 112 (90%) received oxaliplatin (64, 57%) or irinotecan (48, 43%). R, defined as complete (CR) or partial response on preoperative imaging and/or postoperative histology, was seen in 71, 63% (53.8-72.3); 16, 14% (8.4-22.2) had CR. Median OS in R versus NR was 43.7 months (37.9-49.4) versus 23.9 (16.3-31.4) p = 0.007, HR 0.51 (0.31-0.84). OS multivariable analysis showed HR 0.48 (0.25-0.95), p = 0.03 for chemotherapy response corrected by peritoneal cancer index, completeness of cytoreduction score. CRS led to 21% grade 3-4 AEs versus 4% for preoperative chemotherapy. HIPEC grade 3-4 AEs were 0.5%. Preoperative chemotherapy response is an independent predictor for OS in CRPM.

Cytoreductive surgery plus hyperthermic intraoperative peritoneal chemotherapy for people with peritoneal metastases from colorectal, ovarian or gastric origin: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty in the relative benefits and harms of hyperthermic intraoperative peritoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) when added to cytoreductive surgery (CRS) +/- systemic chemotherapy or systemic chemotherapy alone in people with peritoneal metastases from colorectal, gastric, or ovarian cancers. METHODS: We searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the medical literature until April 14, 2022 and applied methods used for high-quality systematic reviews. FINDINGS: We included a total of eight RCTs (seven RCTs included in quantitative analysis as one RCT did not provide data in an analyzable format). All comparisons other than ovarian cancer contained only one trial. For gastric cancer, there is high uncertainty about the effect of CRS + HIPEC + systemic chemotherapy. For stage III or greater epithelial ovarian cancer undergoing interval cytoreductive surgery, CRS + HIPEC + systemic chemotherapy probably decreases all-cause mortality compared to CRS + systemic chemotherapy. For colorectal cancer, CRS + HIPEC + systemic chemotherapy probably results in little to no difference in all-cause mortality and may increase the serious adverse events proportions compared to CRS +/- systemic chemotherapy, but probably decreases all-cause mortality compared to fluorouracil-based systemic chemotherapy alone. INTERPRETATION: The role of CRS + HIPEC in gastric peritoneal metastases is uncertain. CRS + HIPEC should be standard of care in women with stage III or greater epithelial ovarian cancer undergoing interval CRS. CRS + systemic chemotherapy should be standard of care for people with colorectal peritoneal metastases, with HIPEC given only as part of a RCT focusing on subgroups and regimes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42019130504.

Temporal improvements in loco-regional failure and survival in patients with anal cancer treated with chemo-radiotherapy: treatment cohort study (1990-2014).

BACKGROUND: We evaluated oncological changes in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) treated by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) from a large UK institute, to derive estimates of contemporary outcomes. METHODS: We performed a treatment-cohort analysis in 560 patients with non-metastatic SCCA treated with CRT over 25 years. The primary outcomes were 3-year loco-regional failure (LRF), 5-year overall survival (OS), and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS). We developed prediction models; and overlaid estimates on published results from historic trials. RESULTS: Age distributions, proportions by gender and cT stage remained stable over time. The median follow-up was 61 (IQR: 36-79) months. Comparing the first period (1990-1994) with the last period (2010-2014), 3-year LRF declined from 33 to 16% (Ptrends < 0.001); 5-year OS increased from 60% to 76% (Ptrends = 0.001); and 5-year CCS increased from 62% in to 80% (Ptrends = 0.001). For 2020, the models predicted a 3-year LRF of 14.7% (95% CIs: 0-31.3); 5-year OS of 74.7% (95% CIs: 54.6-94.9); and 5-year CSS of 85.7% (95% CIs: 75.3-96.0). Reported oncological outcomes from historic trials generally underestimated contemporary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Current and predicted rates for 3-year LRF and 5-year survivals are considerably improved compared with those in historic trials.

Laparoscopic cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for perforated low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms.

INTRODUCTION: Cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) is an established treatment for pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP) from perforated low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms (LAMN II). In a selected group of LAMN II patients without established PMP, CRS/HIPEC can be performed laparoscopically (L-CRS/HIPEC); however the short-term benefits and safety of this approach have yet to be determined. This study aims to determine the short-term outcomes from a series of L-CRS/HIPEC LAMN II patients compared to those who have undergone a similar open operation (O-CRS/HIPEC) for low-volume PMP. METHODS: LAMN II patients undergoing L-CRS/HIPEC at a UK national peritoneal tumour centre were compared to O-CRS/HIPEC patients (peritoneal cancer index ≤ 7). Outcomes of interest included Clavien-Dindo complication grade, operative time, blood transfusions, high dependency unit (HDU) admission, length of hospital stay, and histopathological findings. RESULTS: 55 L-CRS/HIPEC were compared to 29 O-CRS/HIPEC patients (2003-2017). Groups were matched for age, sex, and procedures. Median operative time was 8.8 (IQR 8.1-9.5) h for L-CRS/HIPEC versus 7.3 (IQR 6.7-8) h for O-CRS/HIPEC (Mann-Whitney test p < 0.001). Post-operative HDU admission was 56% versus 97% (OR 0.04 95% CI 0.01-0.34) and median length of stay = 6 (IQR 5-8) versus 10 (IQR 8-11) days (p < 0.001) for L- versus O-CRS/HIPEC. Despite a normal pre-operative CT scan, 13/55 (23.6%) L-CRS/HIPEC patients had acellular mucin and 2/55 (3.5%) had mucin with epithelium present in their specimens. Residual appendix tumour was identified in 2/55 patients (3.6%). Clavien-Dindo Grade 1-4 complications were similar in both groups with no mortality. CONCLUSION: L-CRS/HIPEC for LAMN II takes longer; however patients have significantly reduced length of HDU and overall stay, without increased post-operative complications. A significant proportion of LAMN II patients undergoing L-CRS/HIPEC have extra-appendiceal acellular mucin with some cases demonstrating residual cellular epithelium from the LAMN II. The risk of these patients developing PMP without surgery is under current review.

Long-term Quality of Life After Cytoreductive Surgery and Heated Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy for Pseudomyxoma Peritonei: A Prospective Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are an established treatment for pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP), but it is a major surgical procedure and may be associated with long-term morbidity. To date, health-related quality-of-life (HRQL) data among survivors are lacking. METHODS: A two-period qualitative study investigated patients undergoing CRS-HIPEC for PMP at a national peritoneal tumor center between 2003 and 2011. First, the European Organization for Research and Treatment (EORTC)-QLQ C30 HRQL questionnaire was used longitudinally preoperatively and at postoperative months 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24, then yearly thereafter. Second, it was updated in 2016 as a cross-sectional study. Both studies were compared with age- and sex-matched reference populations (one-way t tests). RESULTS: A total of 553 longitudinal HRQL questionnaires were completed for 137 patients, truncated at 60 months. In the 2016 update, 85 responses were received from 103 survivors (mean follow-up period, 8.11 years). Patients' physical, role, and social function scores were impaired until 12 months postoperatively, after which the scores did not differ significantly from those of with reference populations. Similarly, fatigue, appetite loss, insomnia, and financial difficulties worsened significantly compared with reference populations in the first 12-months and then normalized. In contrast, impaired cognitive function (82.3 vs 88.5; P = 0.017), constipation (13.7 vs 7.3; P = 0.032), and diarrheal symptoms (15.1 vs 4.9; P = 0.0006) persisted through both periods. Global health scores did not differ significantly from those of the reference population. CONCLUSIONS: Beyond 12 months postoperatively, CRS-HIPEC for PMP is associated with a good quality of life except for some cognitive functional impairment and bowel disturbances.

Predicting Survival After Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy for Appendix Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Appendix adenocarcinomas are rare tumors with propensity for peritoneal metastasis. Cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy is an established treatment with curative intent, but, to date, studies reporting survival have been heterogeneous with regard to their patient groups (including other tumor types), interventions (not all patients receiving intraperitoneal chemotherapy), and follow-up (varying surveillance protocols). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of this intervention on survival in a homogeneous group of patients with appendix adenocarcinoma receiving standardized treatment and follow-up, and to determine the impact of prognostic indicators on survival. DESIGN: This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective database at a national peritoneal tumor center where all patients had their appendix pathology reviewed and management planned by a specialized peritoneal tumor multidisciplinary team. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Data were extracted on prognostic indicators including peritoneal cancer index, completeness of cytoreduction score, preoperative tumor markers, and histological features. Overall and disease event-free survival from the date of intervention were evaluated using Kaplan Meier curves and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 65 patients underwent cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for appendix adenocarcinoma between 2005 and 2015. Median follow-up was 44.3 months. The overall survival was 55.5% and disease event-free survival was 36.1% (5-year rate). Peritoneal Cancer Index <7, complete cytoreduction score of 0, and preoperative CEA of <6 were all associated with significantly higher overall and disease event-free survival. CA19-9 <38 and CA125 <31 were not associated with a significantly higher overall or disease event-free survival. LIMITATIONS: The sample size was limited because of the rarity of this tumor type. CONCLUSIONS: This study quantifies the impact of cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy on overall and disease event-free survival for appendix adenocarcinoma, identifying key prognostic indicators that may guide treatment. It supports the referral of these rare tumors to specialist centers with appropriate expertise for initial management and follow-up. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A595.

Watch-and-wait approach versus surgical resection after chemoradiotherapy for patients with rectal cancer (the OnCoRe project): a propensity-score matched cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Induction of a clinical complete response with chemoradiotherapy, followed by observation via a watch-and-wait approach, has emerged as a management option for patients with rectal cancer. We aimed to address the shortage of evidence regarding the safety of the watch-and-wait approach by comparing oncological outcomes between patients managed by watch and wait who achieved a clinical complete response and those who had surgical resection (standard care). METHODS: Oncological Outcomes after Clinical Complete Response in Patients with Rectal Cancer (OnCoRe) was a propensity-score matched cohort analysis study, that included patients of all ages diagnosed with rectal adenocarcinoma without distant metastases who had received preoperative chemoradiotherapy (45 Gy in 25 daily fractions with concurrent fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy) at a tertiary cancer centre in Manchester, UK, between Jan 14, 2011, and April 15, 2013. Patients who had a clinical complete response were offered management with the watch-and-wait approach, and patients who did not have a complete clinical response were offered surgical resection if eligible. We also included patients with a clinical complete response managed by watch and wait between March 10, 2005, and Jan 21, 2015, across three neighbouring UK regional cancer centres, whose details were obtained through a registry. For comparative analyses, we derived one-to-one paired cohorts of watch and wait versus surgical resection using propensity-score matching (including T stage, age, and performance status). The primary endpoint was non-regrowth disease-free survival from the date that chemoradiotherapy was started, and secondary endpoints were overall survival, and colostomy-free survival. We used a conservative p value of less than 0·01 to indicate statistical significance in the comparative analyses. FINDINGS: 259 patients were included in our Manchester tertiary cancer centre cohort, 228 of whom underwent surgical resection at referring hospitals and 31 of whom had a clinical complete response, managed by watch and wait. A further 98 patients were added to the watch-and-wait group via the registry. Of the 129 patients managed by watch and wait (median follow-up 33 months [IQR 19-43]), 44 (34%) had local regrowths (3-year actuarial rate 38% [95% CI 30-48]); 36 (88%) of 41 patients with non-metastatic local regrowths were salvaged. In the matched analyses (109 patients in each treatment group), no differences in 3-year non-regrowth disease-free survival were noted between watch and wait and surgical resection (88% [95% CI 75-94] with watch and wait vs 78% [63-87] with surgical resection; time-varying p=0·043). Similarly, no difference in 3-year overall survival was noted (96% [88-98] vs 87% [77-93]; time-varying p=0·024). By contrast, patients managed by watch and wait had significantly better 3-year colostomy-free survival than did those who had surgical resection (74% [95% CI 64-82] vs 47% [37-57]; hazard ratio 0·445 [95% CI 0·31-0·63; p<0·0001), with a 26% (95% CI 13-39) absolute difference in patients who avoided permanent colostomy at 3 years between treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: A substantial proportion of patients with rectal cancer managed by watch and wait avoided major surgery and averted permanent colostomy without loss of oncological safety at 3 years. These findings should inform decision making at the outset of chemoradiotherapy. FUNDING: Bowel Disease Research Foundation.

The cost of anal cancer in England: retrospective hospital data analysis and Markov model.

BACKGROUND: Anal cancer requires a multidisciplinary approach to treatment with often complex interventions. Little is known regarding the associated costs and resource use. METHODS: Patient records were extracted from a national hospital database to estimate the number of patients treated for anal cancer in England. Identified resource use was linked to published UK cost estimates to quantify the reimbursement of treatment through the Payment by Results system. A mathematical model was developed simultaneously to validate findings and to calculate the average 10-year cost of treating a squamous cell anal carcinoma case from diagnosis. The model utilised data from the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland's anal cancer position statement. RESULTS: On average, 1,564 patients were admitted to hospital and 389 attended an outpatient facility per year. The average annual cost per inpatient and outpatient ranged from £4,562-£5,230 and £1,146-£1,335, respectively. Based on the model estimates, the inflated cost per case was between £16,470-£16,652. Results were most sensitive to the mode of admission for primary treatment and the costs of staging/diagnosis (inflated range: £14,309-£23,264). CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations in the available data, these results indicate that the cost of treating anal cancer is significant. Further observational work is required in order to verify these findings.

The risk of developing pseudomyxoma peritonei from a non-perforated low grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasm found at appendicectomy.

INTRODUCTION: Low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms (LAMNs) are classified as non-perforated (pTis, pT3) or perforated (pT4), and considered precursors of pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP). This study aims to quantify the risk of developing PMP from pTis and pT3 LAMNs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database identified LAMN patients referred to a specialist centre from 2004 to 2019. pT4 LAMNs and other appendix tumours were excluded. All patients had specialist review of their pathology, operation note, and a CT scan (at least 6 weeks post-operatively). Surveillance CTs were then performed at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, & 60 months, with tumour markers (CEA, CA19-9, CA125). RESULTS: 193 pT3/pTis LAMN patients were included (pTis = 153, pT3 = 40). Median follow-up = 6.45 (3.91-22.13) years, M:F ratio = 1:1.57, and median age = 57 (23-83) years. Initial surgery included: appendicectomy (67 %), appendicectomy + visceral resection (6 %), and right hemicolectomy (27 %). R1 resections were identified in 5/193 patients (2.5 %). 3 R1 patients underwent re-operation (2 caecal pole excision and 1 ileocecectomy), none of which had residual tumour. 8/193 patients (4 %) were lost to follow up. None of the remaining 185 developed PMP. CONCLUSION: This is the largest reported series of pTis/pT3 LAMNs with standardised follow-up in the literature. LAMNs correctly classified as pT3/pTis (after careful specialist review of pathology, operation note, and a baseline post-operative CT) have negligible risk of developing PMP and should have low intensity surveillance. If completely excised, further surgery is not indicated. R1 resections should be considered on an individual basis at a specialist centre.

Patterns and Timing of Recurrence following CRS and HIPEC in Colorectal Cancer Peritoneal Metastasis.

INTRODUCTION: Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) is an established treatment of Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases (CRPM). This study aims to determine the timing and patterns of recurrent disease on imaging following complete CRS/HIPEC. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a national peritoneal tumour service database identified CRPM patients with complete CRS/HIPEC(CC0) from 2005 to-2018. Patients with<2 years follow-up or and those where post-operative histology from the CRS/HIPEC procedure did not confirm CRPM from their original colorectal cancer were excluded. Time to recurrence was measured from surgery to first radiologically illustrated recurrence. CT was the primary modality used, supplemented by PET-CT or MRI if required. Outcomes of interest were survival data (including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and peritoneal-recurrence free survival (PRFS)), timing and patterns of recurrent disease. RESULTS: 146 of the 176 patients identified were eligible for inclusion. Median OS for all study patients was 45.2 months (95% CI 38-53 months), median DFS was 11.7 months (95% CI 9-14 months), and median PRFS was 25.2 months (95% CI 14.7-30 months). Recurrent disease was seen in 112 cases (77%), radiologically classified as intraperitoneal in 50 patients (44%), single site systemic in 21 patients (19%) and multi-site in 41 patients (37%). CT detection rate for disease recurrence was 88%. Subgroup analyses showed that PCI ≥12, positive nodal primary disease and synchronous peritoneal disease were associated with worse outcomes. CONCLUSION: Patients selected for CRS/HIPEC for CRPM have an OS > 45 months, with the majority recurring systemically within a year. Peritoneal recurrence is a later event after several years. Surveillance programs in this group should be most intensive in the first 2 years after surgery, using CT with oral and intravenous contrast.

Early Adaptation of Colorectal Cancer Cells to the Peritoneal Cavity Is Associated with Activation of "Stemness" Programs and Local Inflammation.

PURPOSE: At diagnosis, colorectal cancer presents with synchronous peritoneal metastasis in up to 10% of patients. The peritoneum is poorly characterized with respect to its superspecialized microenvironment. Our aim was to describe the differences between peritoneal metastases and their matched primary tumors excised simultaneously at the time of surgery. Also, we tested the hypothesis of these differences being present in primary colorectal tumors and having prognostic capacity. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We report a comprehensive analysis of 30 samples from peritoneal metastasis with their matched colorectal cancer primaries obtained during cytoreductive surgery. We tested and validated the prognostic value of our findings in a pooled series of 660 colorectal cancer primary samples with overall survival (OS) information and 743 samples with disease-free survival (DFS) information from publicly available databases. RESULTS: We identified 20 genes dysregulated in peritoneal metastasis that promote an early increasing role of "stemness" in conjunction with tumor-favorable inflammatory changes. When adjusted for age, gender, and stage, the 20-gene peritoneal signature proved to have prognostic value for both OS [adjusted HR for the high-risk group (vs. low-risk) 2.32 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.69-3.19; P < 0.0001)] and for DFS [adjusted HR 2.08 (95% CI, 1.50-2.91; P < 0.0001)]. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated that the activation of "stemness" pathways and adaptation to the peritoneal-specific environment are key to early stages of peritoneal carcinomatosis. The in silico analysis suggested that this 20-gene peritoneal signature may hold prognostic information with potential for development of new precision medicine strategies in this setting.

Referral pathways and outcome of patients with colorectal peritoneal metastasis (CRPM).

INTRODUCTION: Traditionally patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM) were offered palliative chemotherapy and best supportive care. With the introduction of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), patients in the UK have been referred to nationally approved centres. This study describes the pattern of referral and outcomes of patients managed through one UK centre. METHODS: and Methods: A prospective register recorded referrals, demographics, prior treatment pathways, and specialist multidisciplinary team (MDT) decisions (2002-2015). Peritoneal cancer index (PCI) was recorded intra-operatively; complete cytoreduction was deemed when a CC0/1 was achieved. Complications were classified using NCI CTCAE. v.4. Median overall survivals (OS) were described for those treated by CRS/HIPEC and in derived estimates for patients with isolated peritoneal metastases treated by chemotherapy alone in the ARCAD trials consortium. RESULTS: Two-hundred-eighty-six patients with CRPM were referred. Despite increasing numbers of referrals annually, the proportion of patients selected for CRS/HIPEC decreased from 64.5%, to 40%, and to 37.1% for 2002-09, 2010-12, and 2013-15, respectively (p < 0.017). CRS/HIPEC was undertaken in 117 patients with a median PCI of 7 and CC0/1 achieved in 86.3%. NCI CTCAE grade 3/4 complication rates were 9.4%; 30-day mortality was 0.85%. Median OS following CRS/HIPEC was 46.0 months: that for patients not receiving CRS/HIPEC was 13.2 months. CONCLUSION: The evolution of the national peritoneal treatment centre over 14 years has been associated with increased referral numbers, refinement of selection for major surgery, matched with achievements of low complication rates and survival advantages in selected patients compared with traditional non-surgical treatments.

Technical aspects of cytoreductive surgery.

At the Fifth International Workshop on Peritoneal Surface Malignancy, in Milan, the consensus on technical aspects of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) for peritoneal surface malignancy was obtained through the Delphi process. Five conflicting points were discussed: radicality of the peritonectomy procedure, cytoreduction of neoplastic nodules <2.5 mm, the timing of bowel anastomoses in relation to hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) and indications of protective ostomies. According to the panel of experts a partial parietal peritonectomy restricted to the macroscopically involved regions could be indicated in all listed clinical conditions with the exception of peritoneal mesothelioma. No expert was of the opinion that a radical parietal peritonectomy is advisable irrespective of the disease being treated. All the experts agreed that electrovaporization of small (<2.5 mm) non-infiltrating metastatic nodules in the mesentery would be appropriate, even if theoretically the HIPEC affords microscopic cytoreduction. The panel also agreed that in the closed technique for HIPEC administration the intestinal anastomoses should be fashioned after completion of the perfusion. Finally when considering the place for protective ostomies the experts voted for a flexible approach allowing the surgeon to exercise discretion for individual patients.

Factors affecting local regrowth after watch and wait for patients with a clinical complete response following chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer (InterCoRe consortium): an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In patients with rectal cancer who achieve clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, watch and wait is a novel management strategy with potential to avoid major surgery. Study-level meta-analyses have reported wide variation in the proportion of patients with local regrowth. We did an individual participant data meta-analysis to investigate factors affecting occurrence of local regrowth. METHODS: We updated search results of a recent systematic review by searching MEDLINE and Embase from Jan 1, 2016, to May 5, 2017, and used expert knowledge to identify published studies reporting on local regrowth in patients with rectal cancer managed by watch and wait after clinical complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. We restricted studies to those that defined clinical complete response using criteria equivalent to São Paulo benchmarks (ie, absence of residual ulceration, stenosis, or mass within the rectum on clinical and endoscopic examination). The primary outcome was 2-year cumulative incidence of local regrowth, estimated with a two-stage random-effects individual participant data meta-analysis. We assessed the effects of clinical and treatment factors using Cox frailty models, expressed as hazard ratios (HRs). From these models, we derived percentage differences in mean θ as an approximation of the effect of measured covariates on between-centre heterogeneity. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42017070934. FINDINGS: We obtained individual participant data from 11 studies, including 602 patients enrolled between March 11, 1990, and Feb 13, 2017, with a median follow-up of 37·6 months (IQR 25·0-58·7). Ten of the 11 datasets were judged to be at low risk of bias. 2-year cumulative incidence of local regrowth was 21·4% (random-effects 95% CI 15·3-27·6), with high levels of between-study heterogeneity (I2=61%). We noted wide between-centre variation in patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. We found some evidence that increasing cT stage was associated with increased risk of local regrowth (random-effects HR per cT stage 1·40, 95% CI 1·00-1·94; ptrend=0·048). In a subgroup of 459 patients managed after 2008 (when pretreatment staging by MRI became standard), 2-year cumulative incidence of local regrowth was 19% (95% CI 13-28) for stage cT1 and cT2 tumours, 31% (26-37) for cT3, and 37% (21-60) for cT4 (random-effects HR per cT stage 1·50, random-effects 95% CI 1·03-2·17; ptrend=0·0330). We estimated that measured factors contributed 4·8-45·3% of observed between-centre heterogeneity. INTERPRETATION: In patients with rectal cancer and clinical complete response after chemoradiotherapy managed by watch and wait, we found some evidence that increasing cT stage predicts for local regrowth. These data will inform clinician-patient decision making in this setting. Research is needed to determine other predictors of a sustained clinical complete response. FUNDING: None.

The effects of sex steroid replacement therapy on an expanded panel of IGF-related peptides.

BACKGROUND: Oral estrogen alone (EA) decreases concentrations of total IGF-I while increasing IGFBP-1, but data on other IGF-related peptides are inconsistent and/or sparse. Combined oral estrogen and progestin (EP) may have differential effects on IGF-related peptides dependent on its progestin-associated androgenic activity. The aim of this study was to clarify these relationships, as circulating IGF-related peptides are potential surrogates of predisposition to common chronic diseases. DESIGN: Using an open-labelled cross-sectional design within a bowel cancer screening trial (aged 55-64 years), we determined total IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 in fasted serum from 210 healthy women and free IGF-I (by ultrafiltration), insulin, IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-1:IGF-I binary complex in a selected subset of 92 women. Unadjusted and adjusted (using generalized linear models) means were compared. RESULTS: Among EA users, mean concentrations for total IGF-I (adjusted P=0.004) and free IGF-I (P<0.001) were reduced, whereas mean concentrations of IGFBP-1 (P=0.001) and binary complex (P=0.01) were increased compared with non-users. Taken as a whole group, EP use was not associated with differences in concentrations of IGF-related peptides, but on sub-group analyses, mean concentrations associated with the use of progestins with reduced androgenic activity reflected the use of EA. By contrast, mean IGFBP-2 concentrations were significantly reduced among both EA (P=0.008) and EP (P=0.002) users, irrespective of androgenic activity. Neither EA nor EP influenced mean concentrations of IGF-II, insulin and IGFBP-3. CONCLUSIONS: The uses of oral sex steroid replacements are associated with significant changes in several IGF-related analytes in a preparation-specific manner, suggesting different regulatory mechanisms. However, the directions of these changes do not fit simple correlative models of predisposition to common diseases.

Vascular endothelial growth factors and receptors in colorectal cancer: implications for anti-angiogenic therapy.

There are conflicting associations between growth factor expression and clinicopathological variables in colorectal cancer. This study aimed to define the expression of members of the VEGF family and the receptor, VEGFR2, in primary and metastatic sites of colorectal cancer and their relationship to metastatic potential. Thirty colorectal cancers, 12 lymph node metastases and 9 liver metastases were immunostained for VEGF-A, VEGF-C, VEGF-D and VEGFR2. VEGFR2 was expressed by endothelial cells and by the malignant epithelium. VEGF-C and VEGFR2 were co-expressed in the same territory and correlated throughout the primary tumour and in metastatic lymph nodes, but not in liver metastases. Their expression at the invasive tumour edge correlated with expression in metastatic nodes. The benefit of anti-VEGF antibodies might be increased by directing additional therapies against VEGF-C or against the kinase receptors to target redundancy in the system. A component of the therapeutic benefit might be due to a direct anti-tumour effect as well as an anti-angiogenic effect.

Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, IGF binding protein-3, and cancer risk: systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I and its main binding protein, IGFBP-3, modulate cell growth and survival, and are thought to be important in tumour development. Circulating concentrations of IGF-I might be associated with an increased risk of cancer, whereas IGFBP-3 concentrations could be associated with a decreased cancer risk. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of case-control studies, including studies nested in cohorts, of the association between concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and prostate, colorectal, premenopausal and postmenopausal breast, and lung cancer. Study-specific dose-response slopes were obtained by relating the natural log of odds ratios for different exposure levels to blood concentrations normalised to a percentile scale. FINDINGS: We identified 21 eligible studies (26 datasets), which included 3609 cases and 7137 controls. High concentrations of IGF-I were associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (odds ratio comparing 75th with 25th percentile 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.95) and premenopausal breast cancer (1.65, 1.26-2.08) and high concentrations of IGFBP-3 were associated with increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer (1.51, 1.01-2.27). Associations were larger in assessments of plasma samples than in serum samples, and in standard case-control studies compared with nested studies. INTERPRETATION: Circulating concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 are associated with an increased risk of common cancers, but associations are modest and vary between sites. Although laboratory methods need to be standardised, these epidemiological observations could have major implications for assessment of risk and prevention of cancer.