Ectoparasite load of small mammals in the Serengeti Ecosystem: effects of land use, season, host species, age, sex and breeding status.

Ectoparasite load in small mammals can be influenced by both environmental conditions and host species characteristics. However, the nature of these influences is poorly understood in many ecosystems. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models with a log link function to assess variation in ectoparasite load among 19 small mammal host species across different land uses (protection in a park, pastoralism and agriculture), habitat types, seasons, age classes, sexes and breeding statuses. We collected 4258 ectoparasites from 612 individual belonging to 19 different species of small mammals. The average ectoparasite load per individual was higher in the pastoral and agricultural lands than in the National Park. Ectoparasite load varied among species and was the highest for the four common and generalist small mammal species (Aethomys sp., Arvicanthis niloticus, Mastomys natalensis, and Gerbilliscus vicinus), most notably in the disturbed pastoral and agricultural lands. It was also higher in the dry than the wet season and for adult males than adult females. These patterns partly reflect the greater mobility of small mammals in the drier conditions; in addition the large body size and home range of males increase the likelihood of encountering parasites. Human disturbance was associated with elevated ectoparasitic load among the small mammals and hence elevated risk of transmission of ectoparasites to humans. As a result, understanding the effect of habitat disturbance on ectoparasite load and its link to zoonotic disease risk should be an important conservation goal and public health priority. Moreover, effective pest control strategies should consider variation in ectoparasite load with land use, habitat type, season and species characteristics.

Large herbivore assemblages in a changing climate: incorporating water dependence and thermoregulation.

The coexistence of different species of large herbivores (ungulates) in grasslands and savannas has fascinated ecologists for decades. However, changes in climate, land-use and trophic structure of ecosystems increasingly jeopardise the persistence of such diverse assemblages. Body size has been used successfully to explain ungulate niche differentiation with regard to food requirements and predation sensitivity. But this single trait axis insufficiently captures interspecific differences in water requirements and thermoregulatory capacity and thus sensitivity to climate change. Here, we develop a two-dimensional trait space of body size and minimum dung moisture content that characterises the combined food and water requirements of large herbivores. From this, we predict that increased spatial homogeneity in water availability in drylands reduces the number of ungulate species that will coexist. But we also predict that extreme droughts will cause the larger, water-dependent grazers as wildebeest, zebra and buffalo-dominant species in savanna ecosystems - to be replaced by smaller, less water-dependent species. Subsequently, we explore how other constraints such as predation risk and thermoregulation are connected to this two-dimensional framework. Our novel framework integrates multiple simultaneous stressors for herbivores and yields an extensive set of testable hypotheses about the expected changes in large herbivore community composition following climate change.

Establishing large mammal population trends from heterogeneous count data.

Monitoring population trends is pivotal to effective wildlife conservation and management. However, wildlife managers often face many challenges when analyzing time series of census data due to heterogeneities in sampling methodology, strategy, or frequency. We present a three-step method for modeling trends from time series of count data obtained through multiple census methods (aerial or ground census and expert estimates). First, we design a heuristic for constructing credible intervals for all types of animal counts including those which come with no precision measure. Then, we define conversion factors for rendering aerial and ground counts comparable and provide values for broad classes of animals from an extant series of parallel aerial and ground censuses. Lastly, we construct a Bayesian model that takes the reconciled counts as input and estimates the relative growth rates between successive dates while accounting for their precisions. Importantly, we bound the rate of increase to account for the demographic potential of a species. We propose a flow chart for constructing credible intervals for various types of animal counts. We provide estimates of conversion factors for 5 broad classes of species. We describe the Bayesian model for calculating trends, annual rates of population increase, and the associated credible intervals. We develop a bespoke R CRAN package, popbayes, for implementing all the calculations that take the raw counts as input. It produces consistent and reliable estimates of population trends and annual rates of increase. Several examples from real populations of large African mammals illustrate the different features of our method. The approach is well-suited for analyzing population trends for heterogeneous time series and allows a principled use of all the available historical census data. The method is general and flexible and applicable to various other animal species besides African large mammals. It can readily be adapted to test predictions of various hypotheses about drivers of rates of population increase.

Conserving large carnivores: dollars and fence.

Conservationists often advocate for landscape approaches to wildlife management while others argue for physical separation between protected species and human communities, but direct empirical comparisons of these alternatives are scarce. We relate African lion population densities and population trends to contrasting management practices across 42 sites in 11 countries. Lion populations in fenced reserves are significantly closer to their estimated carrying capacities than unfenced populations. Whereas fenced reserves can maintain lions at 80% of their potential densities on annual management budgets of $500 km(-2) , unfenced populations require budgets in excess of $2000 km(-2) to attain half their potential densities. Lions in fenced reserves are primarily limited by density dependence, but lions in unfenced reserves are highly sensitive to human population densities in surrounding communities, and unfenced populations are frequently subjected to density-independent factors. Nearly half the unfenced lion populations may decline to near extinction over the next 20-40 years.

Rainfall influences on ungulate population abundance in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem.

1. Rainfall is the prime climatic factor underpinning the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, but no study has analysed its influence on the abundance of these ungulates at monthly to multiannual time scales. 2. We report relationships between rainfall and changes in age- and sex-structured abundances of seven ungulate species monitored monthly for 15 years using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. 3. Abundance showed strong and curvilinear relationships with current and cumulative rainfall, with older topi, Damaliscus korrigum (Ogilby); warthog, Phacochoerus aethiopicus (Pallas); waterbuck, Kobus ellipsyprimnus (Ogilby); and impala, Aepyceros melampus (Lichtenstein) responding to longer lags than younger animals, portraying carryover effects of prior habitat conditions. 4. The abundances of newborn calves were best correlated with monthly rainfall averaged over the preceding 5-6 months for topi, waterbuck, warthog, and 2 months for the migratory zebra Equus burchelli (Gray), but with seasonal rainfall averaged over 2-5 years for giraffe, Giraffa camelopardalis (L.); impala; and kongoni, Alcelaphus busephalus (Pallas). The cumulative late wet-season rainfall was the best predictor of abundance for quarter- to full-grown animals for most species. Monthly rainfall exerted both negative and positive effects on the abundances of zebra, impala and waterbuck. Ignoring age, both sexes responded similarly to rainfall. 5. Births were strongly seasonal only for warthog and topi, but peaked between August and December for most species. Hence abundance was strongly seasonal for young topi and warthog and the migratory zebra. Pronounced seasonality in births for warthog and topi obliterated otherwise strong relationships between abundance and rainfall when both month and rainfall were included in the same model. Aggregated density produced relationships with rainfall similar to those for fully grown animals, emphasizing the necessity of demographic monitoring to reliably reveal rainfall influences on ungulate abundance in the Mara. 6. Strong relationships between abundance and rainfall suggest that rainfall underpins the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, and that changes in rainfall due to global warming may markedly alter the abundance and diversity of these mammals. Ungulates respond to rainfall fluctuations through movements, reproduction or survival, and the responses appear independent of breeding phenology and synchrony, dietary guild, or degree of water dependence. Newborns and adults have contrasting responses to rainfall. Males and females respond similarly to rainfall when age is ignored.