Non-O ABO blood group genotypes differ in their associations with Plasmodium falciparum rosetting and severe malaria.

Blood group O is associated with protection against severe malaria and reduced size and stability of P. falciparum-host red blood cell (RBC) rosettes compared to non-O blood groups. Whether the non-O blood groups encoded by the specific ABO genotypes AO, BO, AA, BB and AB differ in their associations with severe malaria and rosetting is unknown. The A and B antigens are host RBC receptors for rosetting, hence we hypothesized that the higher levels of A and/or B antigen on RBCs from AA, BB and AB genotypes compared to AO/BO genotypes could lead to larger rosettes, increased microvascular obstruction and higher risk of malaria pathology. We used a case-control study of Kenyan children and in vitro adhesion assays to test the hypothesis that "double dose" non-O genotypes (AA, BB, AB) are associated with increased risk of severe malaria and larger rosettes than "single dose" heterozygotes (AO, BO). In the case-control study, compared to OO, the double dose genotypes consistently had higher odds ratios (OR) for severe malaria than single dose genotypes, with AB (OR 1.93) and AO (OR 1.27) showing most marked difference (p = 0.02, Wald test). In vitro experiments with blood group A-preferring P. falciparum parasites showed that significantly larger rosettes were formed with AA and AB host RBCs compared to OO, whereas AO and BO genotypes rosettes were indistinguishable from OO. Overall, the data show that ABO genotype influences P. falciparum rosetting and support the hypothesis that double dose non-O genotypes confer a greater risk of severe malaria than AO/BO heterozygosity.

A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure. Our model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which we provide an open-source Python implementation. Such tractability leads to significant benefits for model calibration, exhaustive evaluation of possible parameter values, and interpretability of results. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model through four policy case studies, where we quantify the likely benefits of the following measures which were either considered or implemented in the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic: control of within- and between-household mixing through NPIs; formation of support bubbles during lockdown periods; out-of-household isolation (OOHI); and temporary relaxation of NPIs during holiday periods. Our ordinary differential equation formulation and associated analysis demonstrate that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability. This model and its software implementation expand the range of tools available to infectious disease policy analysts.

Estimating the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission in South Africa, 2016-2018: A hidden Markov modelling study.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant's age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9-80.5%) than older children (5-17 years-old) (31.7-50.0%) or adults (11.5-23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7-15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91-1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2-12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6-6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507-714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1-435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.

Examining the unit costs of COVID-19 vaccine delivery in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines are considered the path out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government of Kenya is implementing a phased strategy to vaccinate the Kenyan population, initially targeting populations at high risk of severe disease and infection. We estimated the financial and economic unit costs of procuring and delivering the COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya across various vaccination strategies. METHODS: We used an activity-based costing approach to estimate the incremental costs of COVID-19 vaccine delivery, from a health systems perspective. Document reviews and key informant interviews(n = 12) were done to inform the activities, assumptions and the resources required. Unit prices were derived from document reviews or from market prices. Both financial and economic vaccine procurement costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses, and the vaccine delivery costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses were estimated and reported in 2021USD. RESULTS: The financial costs of vaccine procurement per person vaccinated with 2-doses ranged from $2.89-$13.09 in the 30% and 100% coverage levels respectively, however, the economic cost was $17.34 across all strategies. Financial vaccine delivery costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses, ranged from $4.28-$3.29 in the 30% and 100% coverage strategies: While the economic delivery costs were two to three times higher than the financial costs. The total procurement and delivery costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses ranged from $7.34-$16.47 for the financial costs and $29.7-$24.68 for the economic costs for the 30% and 100% coverage respectively. With the exception of procurement costs, the main cost driver of financial and economic delivery costs was supply chain costs (47-59%) and advocacy, communication and social mobilization (29-35%) respectively. CONCLUSION: This analysis presents cost estimates that can be used to inform local policy and may further inform parameters used in cost-effectiveness models. The results could potentially be adapted and adjusted to country-specific assumptions to enhance applicability in similar low-and middle-income settings.

Effect of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease and nasopharyngeal carriage in Kenya: a longitudinal surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10), delivered at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children aged younger than 5 years. Coverage with at least two PCV10 doses in children aged 2-11 months was 80% in 2011 and 84% in 2016; coverage with at least one dose in children aged 12-59 months was 66% in 2011 and 87% in 2016. We aimed to assess PCV10 effect against nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children and adults in Kilifi County. METHODS: This study was done at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme among residents of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, a rural community on the Kenyan coast covering an area of 891 km2. We linked clinical and microbiological surveillance for IPD among admissions of all ages at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, which serves the community, to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1999 to 2016. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing the prevaccine (Jan 1, 1999-Dec 31, 2010) and postvaccine (Jan 1, 2012-Dec 31, 2016) eras, adjusted for confounding, and reported percentage reduction in IPD as 1 minus IRR. Annual cross-sectional surveys of nasopharyngeal carriage were done from 2009 to 2016. FINDINGS: Surveillance identified 667 cases of IPD in 3 211 403 person-years of observation. Yearly IPD incidence in children younger than 5 years reduced sharply in 2011 following vaccine introduction and remained low (PCV10-type IPD: 60·8 cases per 100 000 in the prevaccine era vs 3·2 per 100 000 in the postvaccine era [adjusted IRR 0·08, 95% CI 0·03-0·22]; IPD caused by any serotype: 81·6 per 100 000 vs 15·3 per 100 000 [0·32, 0·17-0·60]). PCV10-type IPD also declined in the post-vaccination era in unvaccinated age groups (<2 months [no cases in the postvaccine era], 5-14 years [adjusted IRR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11-0·59], and ≥15 years [0·19, 0·07-0·51]). Incidence of non-PCV10-type IPD did not differ between eras. In children younger than 5 years, PCV10-type carriage declined between eras (age-standardised adjusted prevalence ratio 0·26, 95% CI 0·19-0·35) and non-PCV10-type carriage increased (1·71, 1·47-1·99). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of PCV10 in Kenya, accompanied by a catch-up campaign, resulted in a substantial reduction in PCV10-type IPD in children and adults without significant replacement disease. Although the catch-up campaign is likely to have brought forward the benefits by several years, the study suggests that routine infant PCV10 immunisation programmes will provide substantial direct and indirect protection in low-income settings in tropical Africa. FUNDING: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and The Wellcome Trust of Great Britain.

Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Herd protection through interruption of transmission has contributed greatly to the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) and may enable the use of cost-saving reduced dose schedules. To aid PCV age targeting to achieve herd protection, we estimated which population age groups contribute most to vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococcal transmission. METHODS: We used transmission dynamic models to mirror pre-PCV epidemiology in England and Wales, Finland, Kilifi in Kenya and Nha Trang in Vietnam where data on carriage prevalence in infants, pre-school and school-aged children and adults as well as social contact patterns was available. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models and then extracted the per capita and population-based contribution of different age groups to VT transmission. RESULTS: We estimated that in all settings, < 1-year-old infants cause very frequent secondary vaccine type pneumococcal infections per capita. However, 1-5-year-old children have the much higher contribution to the force of infection at 51% (28, 73), 40% (27, 59), 37% (28, 48) and 67% (41, 86) of the total infection pressure in E&W, Finland, Kilifi and Nha Trang, respectively. Unlike the other settings, school-aged children in Kilifi were the dominant source for VT infections with 42% (29, 54) of all infections caused. Similarly, we estimated that the main source of VT infections in infants are pre-school children and that in Kilifi 39% (28, 51) of VT infant infections stem from school-aged children whereas this was below 15% in the other settings. CONCLUSION: Vaccine protection of pre-school children is key for PCV herd immunity. However, in high transmission settings, school-aged children may substantially contribute to transmission and likely have waned much of their PCV protection under currently recommended schedules.

Effect of Maternally Derived Anti-protein and Anticapsular IgG Antibodies on the Rate of Acquisition of Nasopharyngeal Carriage of Pneumococcus in Newborns.

Background: In developing countries, introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has not eliminated circulation of vaccine serotypes. Vaccinating pregnant mothers to increase antibody concentrations in their newborn infants may reduce the acquisition of pneumococcal carriage and subsequent risk of disease. We explored the efficacy of passive immunity, attributable to anti-protein and anticapsular pneumococcal antibodies, against acquisition of carriage. Methods: We examined the rate of nasopharyngeal acquisition of pneumococci in the first 90 days of life associated with varying anticapsular and anti-protein antibody concentrations in infant cord/maternal venous blood in Kilifi, Kenya. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to estimate continuous functions relating acquisition of nasopharyngeal carriage to the concentration of maternally derived antibody. Results: Cord blood or maternal venous samples were collected from 976 mother-infant pairs. Pneumococci were acquired 561 times during 33,905 person-days of follow-up. Increasing concentrations of anti-protein antibodies were associated with either a reduction (PhtD1, PspAFam2, Spr0096, StkP) or, paradoxically, an increase (CbpA, LytC, PcpA, PiaA, PspAFam1, RrgBT4) in acquisition rate. We observed a nonsignificant reduction in the incidence of homologous carriage acquisition with high concentrations of maternally derived anticapsular antibodies to 5 serotypes (6A, 6B, 14, 19F, and 23F). Conclusion: The protective efficacy of several anti-protein antibodies supports the strategy of maternal vaccination to protect young infants from carriage and invasive disease. We were not able to demonstrate that passive anticapsular antibodies were protective against carriage acquisition at naturally occurring concentrations though it remains possible they may do so at the higher concentrations elicited by vaccination.

The clinical epidemiology of sickle cell anemia In Africa.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is the commonest severe monogenic disorders of humans. The disease has been highly characterized in high-income countries but not in sub-Saharan Africa where SCA is most prevalent. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all children 0-13 years admitted from within a defined study area to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya over a five-year period. Children were genotyped for SCA retrospectively and incidence rates calculated with reference to population data. Overall, 576 of 18,873 (3.1%) admissions had SCA of whom the majority (399; 69.3%) were previously undiagnosed. The incidence of all-cause hospital admission was 57.2/100 person years of observation (PYO; 95%CI 52.6-62.1) in children with SCA and 3.7/100 PYO (95%CI 3.7-3.8) in those without SCA (IRR 15.3; 95%CI 14.1-16.6). Rates were higher for the majority of syndromic diagnoses at all ages beyond the neonatal period, being especially high for severe anemia (hemoglobin <50 g/L; IRR 58.8; 95%CI 50.3-68.7), stroke (IRR 486; 95%CI 68.4-3,450), bacteremia (IRR 23.4; 95%CI 17.4-31.4), and for bone (IRR 607; 95%CI 284-1,300), and joint (IRR 80.9; 95%CI 18.1-362) infections. The use of an algorithm based on just five clinical features would have identified approximately half of all SCA cases among hospital-admitted children with a number needed to test to identify each affected patient of only fourteen. Our study illustrates the clinical epidemiology of SCA in a malaria-endemic environment without specific interventions. The targeted testing of hospital-admitted children using the Kilifi Algorithm provides a pragmatic approach to early diagnosis in high-prevalence countries where newborn screening is unavailable.

Assessing the efficiency of catch-up campaigns for the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: a modelling study based on data from PCV10 introduction in Kilifi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation recommends the use of catch-up campaigns as part of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to accelerate herd protection and hence PCV impact. The value of a catch-up campaign is a trade-off between the costs of vaccinating additional age groups and the benefit of additional direct and indirect protection. There is a paucity of observational data, particularly from low- and middle-income countries, to quantify the optimal breadth of such catch-up campaigns. METHODS: In Kilifi, Kenya, PCV10 was introduced in 2011 using the three-dose Expanded Programme on Immunisation infant schedule and a catch-up campaign in children <5 years old. We fitted a transmission dynamic model to detailed local data, including nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), to infer the marginal impact of the PCV catch-up campaign over hypothetical routine cohort vaccination in that setting and to estimate the likely impact of alternative campaigns and their dose efficiency. RESULTS: We estimated that, within 10 years of introduction, the catch-up campaign among children <5 years old prevents an additional 65 (48-84) IPD cases across age groups, compared to PCV cohort introduction alone. Vaccination without any catch-up campaign prevented 155 (121-193) IPD cases and used 1321 (1058-1698) PCV doses per IPD case prevented. In the years after implementation, the PCV programme gradually accrues herd protection, and hence its dose efficiency increases: 10 years after the start of cohort vaccination alone the programme used 910 (732-1184) doses per IPD case averted. We estimated that a two-dose catch-up among children <1 year old uses an additional 910 (732-1184) doses per additional IPD case averted. Furthermore, by extending a single-dose catch-up campaign to children aged 1 to <2 years and subsequently to those aged 2 to <5 years, the campaign uses an additional 412 (296-606) and 543 (403-763) doses per additional IPD case averted. These results were not sensitive to vaccine coverage, serotype competition, the duration of vaccine protection or the relative protection of infants. CONCLUSIONS: We find that catch-up campaigns are a highly dose-efficient way to accelerate population protection against pneumococcal disease.

Under-five mortality rate variation between the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) approaches.

BACKGROUND: Several low and middle-income countries (LMIC) use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and/or Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) to monitor the health of their population. The level and trends of under-five mortality rates could be different in the HDSS sites compared to the DHS reports. In this study, we investigated the change in under-five mortality rates overtime in the HDSS sites and the corresponding DHS reports in eight countries and 13 sites. METHODS: Under-five mortality rates in the HDSS sites were determined using number of under-five deaths (numerator) and live births (denominator). The trends and annualized rate of change (ARC) of under-five mortality rates in the HDSS sites and the DHS reports were compared by fitting exponential function. RESULTS: Under-five mortality rates declined substantially in most of the sites during the last 10-15 years. Ten out of 13 (77 %) HDSS sites have consistently lower under-five mortality rates than the DHS under-five mortality rates. In the Kilifi HDSS in Kenya, under-five mortality rate declined by 65.6 % between 2003 and 2014 with ARC of 12.2 % (95 % CI: 9.4-15.0). In the same period, the DHS under-five mortality rate in the Coastal region of Kenya declined by 50.8 % with ARC of 6 % (95 % CI: 2.0-9.0). The under-five mortality rate reduction in the Mlomp (78.1 %) and Niakhar (80.8 %) HDSS sites in Senegal during 1993-2012 was significantly higher than the mortality decline observed in the DHS report during the same period. On the other hand, the Kisumu HDSS in Kenya had lower under-five mortality reduction (15.8 %) compared to the mortality reduction observed in the DHS report (27.7 %) during 2003-2008. Under-five mortality rate rose by 27 % in the Agincourt HDSS in South Africa between 1998 to 2003 that was contrary to the 18 % under-five mortality reduction in the DHS report during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: The inconsistency between HDSS and DHS approaches could have global implication on the estimation of child mortality and ethical issues on mortality inequalities. Further studies should be conducted to investigate the reasons of child mortality variation between the HDSS and the DHS approaches.

Multiple clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a low transmission intensity setting: exposure versus immunity.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies indicate that some children experience many more episodes of clinical malaria than their age mates in a given location. Whether this is as a result of the micro-heterogeneity of malaria transmission with some children effectively getting more exposure to infectious mosquitoes than others, or reflects a failure in the acquisition of immunity needs to be elucidated. Here, we investigated the determinants of increased susceptibility to clinical malaria by comparing the intensity of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and the acquisition of immunity in children at the extreme ends of the over-dispersed distribution of the incidence of clinical malaria. METHODS: The study was nested within a larger cohort in an area where the intensity of malaria transmission was low. We identified children who over a five-year period experienced 5 to 16 clinical malaria episodes (children at the tail-end of the over-dispersed distribution, n = 35), remained malaria-free (n = 12) or had a single episode (n = 26). We quantified antibodies against seven Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens in plasma obtained at six cross-sectional surveys spanning these five years. We analyzed the antibody responses to identify temporal dynamics that associate with disease susceptibility. RESULTS: Children experiencing multiple episodes of malaria were more likely to be parasite positive by microscopy at cross-sectional surveys (X (2) test for trend 14.72 P = 0.001) and had a significantly higher malaria exposure index, than those in the malaria-free or single episode groups (Kruskal-Wallis test P = 0.009). In contrast, the five-year temporal dynamics of anti-merozoite antibodies were similar in the three groups. Importantly in all groups, antibody levels were below the threshold concentrations previously observed to be correlated with protective immunity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that in the context of a low malaria transmission setting, susceptibility to clinical malaria is not accounted for by anti-merozoite antibodies but appears to be a consequence of increased parasite exposure. We hypothesize that intensive exposure is a prerequisite for protective antibody concentrations, while little to modest exposure may manifest as multiple clinical infections with low levels of antibodies. These findings have implications for interventions that effectively lower malaria transmission intensity.

A qualitative inquiry on drivers of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among adults in Kenya.

COVID-19 vaccination rates have been low among adults in Kenya (36.7% as of late March 2023) with vaccine hesitancy posing a threat to the COVID-19 vaccination program. This study sought to examine facilitators and barriers to COVID-19 vaccinations in Kenya. We conducted a qualitative cross-sectional study in two purposively selected counties in Kenya. We collected data through 8 focus group discussions with 80 community members and 8 in-depth interviews with health care managers and providers. The data was analyzed using a framework approach focusing on determinants of vaccine hesitancy and their influence on psychological constructs. Barriers to COVID-19 vaccine uptake were related to individual characteristics (males, younger age, perceived health status, belief in herbal medicine, and the lack of autonomy in decision making among women - especially in rural settings), contextual influences (lifting of bans, myths, medical mistrust, cultural and religious beliefs), and COVID-19 vaccine related factors (fear of unknown consequences, side-effects, lack of understanding on how vaccines work and rationale for boosters). However, community health volunteers, trusted leaders, mandates, financial and geographic access influenced COVID-19 vaccine uptake. These drivers of hesitancy mainly related to psychological constructs including confidence, complacency, and constraints. Vaccine hesitancy in Kenya is driven by multiple interconnected factors. These factors are likely to inform evidence-based targeted strategies that are built on trust to address vaccine hesitancy. These strategies could include gender responsive immunization programs, appropriate messaging and consistent communication that target fear, safety concerns, misconceptions and information gaps in line with community concerns. There is need to ensure that the strategies are tested in the local setting and incorporate a multisectoral approach including community health volunteers, religious leaders and community leaders.

Rates of acquisition of pneumococcal colonization and transmission probabilities, by serotype, among newborn infants in Kilifi District, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Herd protection and serotype replacement disease following introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) are attributable to the vaccine's impact on colonization. Prior to vaccine introduction in Kenya, we did an epidemiological study to estimate the rate of pneumococcal acquisition, by serotype, in an uncolonized population. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were taken from newborns aged ≤ 7 days and weekly thereafter for 13 weeks. Parents, and siblings aged <10 years, were swabbed at monthly intervals. Swabs were transported in skim milk-tryptone-glucose-glycerin and cultured on gentamicin blood agar. Pneumococci were serotyped by the Quellung reaction. We used survival analysis and Cox regression analysis to examine serotype-specific acquisition rates and risk factors and calculated transmission probabilities from the pattern of acquisitions within the family. RESULTS: Of 1404 infants recruited, 887 were colonized by 3 months of age, with the earliest acquisition detected on the first day of life. The median time to acquisition was 38.5 days. The pneumococcal acquisition rate was 0.0189 acquisitions/day (95% confidence interval, .0177-.0202 acquisitions/day). Serotype-specific acquisition rates varied from 0.00002-0.0025 acquisitions/day among 49 different serotypes. Season, coryza, and exposure to cigarettes, cooking fumes, and other children in the home were each significant risk factors for acquisition. The transmission probability per 30-day duration of contact with a carrier was 0.23 (95% CI, .20-.26). CONCLUSIONS: Newborn infants in Kilifi have high rates of nasopharyngeal acquisition of pneumococci. Half of these acquisitions involve serotypes not included in any current vaccine. Several risk factors are modifiable through intervention. Newborns represent a consistent population of pneumococcus-naive individuals in which to estimate the impact of PCV on transmission.

Acute seizures attributable to falciparum malaria in an endemic area on the Kenyan coast.

Falciparum malaria is an important cause of acute symptomatic seizures in children admitted to hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa, and these seizures are associated with neurological disabilities and epilepsy. However, it is difficult to determine the proportion of seizures attributable to malaria in endemic areas since a significant proportion of asymptomatic children have malaria parasitaemia. We studied children aged 0-13 years who had been admitted with a history of seizures to a rural Kenyan hospital between 2002 and 2008. We examined the changes in the incidence of seizures with the reduction of malaria. Logistic regression was used to model malaria-attributable fractions for seizures (the proportion of seizures caused by malaria) to determine if the observed decrease in acute symptomatic seizures was a measure of seizures that are attributable to malaria. The overall incidence of acute symptomatic seizures over the period was 651/100,000/year (95% confidence interval 632-670) and it was 400/100,000/year (95% confidence interval 385-415) for acute complex symptomatic seizures (convulsive status epilepticus, repetitive or focal) and 163/100,000/year (95% confidence interval 154-173) for febrile seizures. From 2002 to 2008, the incidence of all acute symptomatic seizures decreased by 809/100,000/year (69.2%) with 93.1% of this decrease in malaria-associated seizures. The decrease in the incidence of acute complex symptomatic seizures during the period was 111/100,000/year (57.2%) for convulsive status epilepticus, 440/100,000/year (73.7%) for repetitive seizures and 153/100,000/year (80.5%) for focal seizures. The adjusted malaria-attributable fractions for seizures with parasitaemia were 92.9% (95% confidence interval 90.4-95.1%) for all acute symptomatic seizures, 92.9% (95% confidence interval 89.4-95.5%) for convulsive status epilepticus, 93.6% (95% confidence interval 90.9-95.9%) for repetitive seizures and 91.8% (95% confidence interval 85.6-95.5%) for focal seizures. The adjusted malaria-attributable fractions for seizures in children above 6 months of age decreased with age. The observed decrease in all acute symptomatic seizures (809/100 000/year) was similar to the predicted decline (794/100,000/year) estimated by malaria-attributable fractions at the beginning of the study. In endemic areas, falciparum malaria is the most common cause of seizures and the risk for seizures in malaria decreases with age. The reduction in malaria has decreased the burden of seizures that are attributable to malaria and this could lead to reduced neurological disabilities and epilepsy in the area.

The cost of illness for childhood clinical pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal disease contributes significantly to childhood morbidity and mortality and treatment is costly. Nigeria recently introduced the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) to prevent pneumococcal disease. The aim of this study is to estimate health provider and household costs for the treatment of pneumococcal disease in children aged <5 years (U5s), and to assess the impact of these costs on household income. METHODS: We recruited U5s with clinical pneumonia, pneumococcal meningitis or pneumococcal septicaemia from a tertiary level hospital and a secondary level hospital in Kano, Nigeria. We obtained resource utilisation data from medical records to estimate costs of treatment to provider, and household expenses and income loss data from caregiver interviews to estimate costs of treatment to households. We defined catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) as household costs exceeding 25% of monthly household income and estimated the proportion of households that experienced it. We compared CHE across tertiles of household income (from the poorest to least poor). RESULTS: Of 480 participants recruited, 244 had outpatient pneumonia, and 236 were hospitalised with pneumonia (117), septicaemia (66) and meningitis (53). Median (IQR) provider costs were US$17 (US$14-22) for outpatients and US$272 (US$271-360) for inpatients. Median household cost was US$51 (US$40-69). Overall, 33% of households experienced CHE, while 53% and 4% of the poorest and least poor households, experienced CHE, respectively. The odds of CHE increased with admission at the secondary hospital, a diagnosis of meningitis or septicaemia, higher provider costs and caregiver having a non-salaried job. CONCLUSION: Provider costs are substantial, and households incur treatment expenses that considerably impact on their income and this is particularly so for the poorest households. Sustaining the PCV programme and ensuring high and equitable coverage to lower disease burden will reduce the economic burden of pneumococcal disease to the healthcare provider and households.

Social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact in urban Blantyre, Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding human mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread through close contact is vital for modelling transmission dynamics and optimisation of disease control strategies. Mixing patterns in low-income countries like Malawi are not well known. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a social mixing survey in urban Blantyre, Malawi between April and July 2021 (between the 2nd and 3rd wave of COVID-19 infections). Participants living in densely-populated neighbourhoods were randomly sampled and, if they consented, reported their physical and non-physical contacts within and outside homes lasting at least 5 min during the previous day. Age-specific mixing rates were calculated, and a negative binomial mixed effects model was used to estimate determinants of contact behaviour. RESULTS: Of 1201 individuals enroled, 702 (58.5%) were female, the median age was 15 years (interquartile range [IQR] 5-32) and 127 (10.6%) were HIV-positive. On average, participants reported 10.3 contacts per day (range: 1-25). Mixing patterns were highly age-assortative, particularly those within the community and with skin-to-skin contact. Adults aged 20-49 y reported the most contacts (median:11, IQR: 8-15) of all age groups; 38% (95%CI: 16-63) more than infants (median: 8, IQR: 5-10), who had the least contacts. Household contact frequency increased by 3% (95%CI: 2-5) per additional household member. Unemployed participants had 15% (95%CI: 9-21) fewer contacts than other adults. Among long range (>30 m away from home) contacts, secondary school children had the largest median contact distance from home (257 m, IQR 78-761). HIV-positive status in adults >=18 years-old was not associated with changed contact patterns (rate ratio: 1.01, 95%CI: (0.91-1.12)). During this period of relatively low COVID-19 incidence in Malawi, 301 (25.1%) individuals stated that they had limited their contact with others due to COVID-19 precautions; however, their reported contacts were 8% (95%CI: 1-13) higher. CONCLUSION: In urban Malawi, contact rates, are high and age-assortative, with little reported behavioural change due to either HIV-status or COVID-19 circulation. This highlights the limits of contact-restriction-based mitigation strategies in such settings and the need for pandemic preparedness to better understand how contact reductions can be enabled and motivated.

Risk factors for pneumococcal carriage in adults living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in the infant pneumococcal vaccine era in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: Adults living with HIV (ALWHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at high risk of pneumococcal carriage and disease. To help evaluate carriage risk in African ALWHIV at least 4 years after infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccination introduction in 2011, we assessed association between pneumococcal carriage and potential risk factors. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from adults aged 18-40 years attending an ART clinic during rolling, cross-sectional surveys in Blantyre, Malawi between 2015 and 2019. We fitted generalized additive models to estimate the risk of sex, social economic status (SES), living with a child less than 5 years, and ART duration on carriage. RESULTS: Of 2067 adults, median age was 33 years (range 28-37), 1427 (69.0%) were women, 1087 (61.4%) were in low-middle socioeconomic-status (SES), 910 (44.0%) were living with a child less than 5 years, and median ART duration was 3 years (range 0.004-17). We estimated 38.2 and 60.6% reductions in overall and vaccine-serotype carriage prevalence. Overall carriage was associated with low SES, living with a child less than 5 years and shorter duration on ART. By contrast, vaccine-type carriage was associated with living without a child less than 5 years and male sex. CONCLUSION: Despite temporal reductions in overall and vaccine-serotype carriage, there is evidence of incomplete vaccine-serotype indirect protection. A targeted-vaccination campaign should be considered for ALWHIV, along with other public health measures to further reduce vaccine-serotype carriage and therefore disease.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11. FINDINGS: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine given shortly after birth stimulates effective antibody concentrations and primes immunological memory for sustained infant protection.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, newborn immunization with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) could protect young infants who are at high risk of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) but might lead to immune tolerance. METHODS: In a randomized trial, young infants received 7-valent PCV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks (Expanded Programme on Immunization [EPI] group) or 0, 10, and 14 weeks (newborn group). Safety was monitored actively at 2-7 days and then passively. Serum samples obtained at birth and 6, 10, 14, 18, 36, and 37 weeks were assayed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for anticapsular immunoglobulin G concentration and avidity. Infants were boosted with either 7-valent PCV or one-fifth dose of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine at 36 weeks. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained at 18 and 36 weeks. RESULTS: Three-hundred neonates and young infants were enrolled. Newborn vaccination was well tolerated. Adverse events occurred equally in each group; none was related to immunization. One infant, immunized at birth, died of unrelated neonatal sepsis. At 18 weeks, protective concentrations (≥0.35 µg/mL) were achieved against each serotype by ≥87% of infants with no significant differences between groups. Geometric mean concentrations were higher in the EPI group for serotypes 4, 9V, 18C, and 19F at 18 weeks and for serotype 4 at 36 weeks. Avidity was greater in the newborn group for serotypes 4, 6B, and 19F at 18 weeks and for serotype 19F at 36 weeks. Booster responses and vaccine-type/nonvaccine-type carriage prevalence did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: PCV was safe, immunogenic, and primed for memory when given at birth. There was no evidence of immune tolerance. Vaccination beginning at birth offers an alternative to control IPD in vulnerable young infants.