Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.

Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America.

Evidence of region-wide bat population decline from long-term monitoring and Bayesian occupancy models with empirically informed priors.

Strategic conservation efforts for cryptic species, especially bats, are hindered by limited understanding of distribution and population trends. Integrating long-term encounter surveys with multi-season occupancy models provides a solution whereby inferences about changing occupancy probabilities and latent changes in abundance can be supported. When harnessed to a Bayesian inferential paradigm, this modeling framework offers flexibility for conservation programs that need to update prior model-based understanding about at-risk species with new data. This scenario is exemplified by a bat monitoring program in the Pacific Northwestern United States in which results from 8 years of surveys from 2003 to 2010 require updating with new data from 2016 to 2018. The new data were collected after the arrival of bat white-nose syndrome and expansion of wind power generation, stressors expected to cause population declines in at least two vulnerable species, little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) and the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus). We used multi-season occupancy models with empirically informed prior distributions drawn from previous occupancy results (2003-2010) to assess evidence of contemporary decline in these two species. Empirically informed priors provided the bridge across the two monitoring periods and increased precision of parameter posterior distributions, but did not alter inferences relative to use of vague priors. We found evidence of region-wide summertime decline for the hoary bat ( λ ^  = 0.86 ± 0.10) since 2010, but no evidence of decline for the little brown bat ( λ ^  = 1.1 ± 0.10). White-nose syndrome was documented in the region in 2016 and may not yet have caused regional impact to the little brown bat. However, our discovery of hoary bat decline is consistent with the hypothesis that the longer duration and greater geographic extent of the wind energy stressor (collision and barotrauma) have impacted the species. These hypotheses can be evaluated and updated over time within our framework of pre-post impact monitoring and modeling. Our approach provides the foundation for a strategic evidence-based conservation system and contributes to a growing preponderance of evidence from multiple lines of inquiry that bat species are declining.

A review of bat hibernacula across the western United States: Implications for white-nose syndrome surveillance and management.

Efforts to conserve bats in the western United States have long been impeded by a lack of information on their winter whereabouts, particularly bats in the genus Myotis. The recent arrival of white-nose syndrome in western North America has increased the urgency to characterize winter roost habitats in this region. We compiled 4,549 winter bat survey records from 2,888 unique structures across 11 western states. Myotis bats were reported from 18.5% of structures with 95% of aggregations composed of ≤10 individuals. Only 11 structures contained ≥100 Myotis individuals and 6 contained ≥500 individuals. Townsend's big-eared bat (Corynorhinus townsendii) were reported from 38% of structures, with 72% of aggregations composed of ≤10 individuals. Aggregations of ≥100 Townsend's big-eared bats were observed at 41 different caves or mines across 9 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to explore biogeographic patterns of winter roost counts. Myotis counts were greater in caves than mines, in more recent years, and in more easterly longitudes, northerly latitudes, higher elevations, and in areas with higher surface temperatures and lower precipitation. Townsend's big-eared bat counts were greater in caves, during more recent years, and in more westerly longitudes. Karst topography was associated with higher Townsend's big-eared bat counts but did not appear to influence Myotis counts. We found stable or slightly-increasing trends over time in counts for both Myotis and Townsend's big-eared bats from 82 hibernacula surveyed ≥5 winters since 1990. Highly-dispersed winter roosting of Myotis in the western USA complicates efforts to monitor population trends and impacts of disease. However, our results reveal opportunities to monitor winter population status of Townsend's big-eared bats across this region.