Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

Realization of thousand-second improved confinement plasma with Super I-mode in Tokamak EAST.

Mastering nuclear fusion, which is an abundant, safe, and environmentally competitive energy, is a great challenge for humanity. Tokamak represents one of the most promising paths toward controlled fusion. Obtaining a high-performance, steady-state, and long-pulse plasma regime remains a critical issue. Recently, a big breakthrough in steady-state operation was made on the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST). A steady-state plasma with a world-record pulse length of 1056 s was obtained, where the density and the divertor peak heat flux were well controlled, with no core impurity accumulation, and a new high-confinement and self-organizing regime (Super I-mode = I-mode + e-ITB) was discovered and demonstrated. These achievements contribute to the integration of fusion plasma technology and physics, which is essential to operate next-step devices.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s.

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016-2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.

Optimization of the Ugi reaction using parallel synthesis and automated liquid handling.

The optimization of a Ugi reaction involving the mixing of furfurylamine, benzaldehyde, boc-glycine and t-butylisocyanide is described. Triplicate runs of 48 parallel experiments are reported, varying concentration, solvent and the excess of some of the reagents. The isolation of the product was achieved by a simple filtration and wash procedure. The highest yield obtained was 66% from 0.4 M methanol with 1.2 eq. of imine. This is significantly above the 49% yield obtained from the initial reaction under equimolar concentration at 0.4 M in methanol. Methanol solutions with reagent concentrations of 0.4M or 0.2M gave superior yields while all solvent systems at 0.07M performed poorly. At 0.2M, methanol and ethanol/methanol (60/40) mixtures were statistically equally good while THF/methanol (60/40) was poor and acetonitrile/methanol (60/40) was intermediate. Good reproducibility of the precipitate yields was obtained in these replicate experiments, allowing for subtle interaction effects to be positively identified.