Predictable hydrological and ecological responses to Holocene North Atlantic variability.

Climate variations in the North Atlantic region can substantially impact surrounding continents. Notably, the Younger Dryas chronozone was named for the ecosystem effects of abrupt changes in the region at circa (ca.) 12.9-11.7 ka (millennia before 1950 AD). Holocene variations since then, however, have been hard to diagnose, and the responsiveness of terrestrial ecosystems continues to be debated. Here, we show that Holocene climate variations had spatial patterns consistent with changes in Atlantic overturning and repeatedly steepened the temperature gradient between Nova Scotia and Greenland since >8 ka. The multicentury changes correlated with hydrologic and vegetation changes in the northeast United States, including when an enhanced temperature gradient coincided with subregional droughts indicated by water-level changes at multiple coastal lakes at 4.9-4.6, 4.2-3.9, 2.8-2.1, and 1.3-1.2 ka. We assessed the variability and its effects by replicating signals across sites, using converging evidence from multiple methods, and applying forward models of the systems involved. We evaluated forest responses in the northeast United States and found that they tracked the regional climate shifts including the smallest magnitude (∼5% or 50 mm) changes in effective precipitation. Although a long-term increase in effective precipitation of >45% (>400 mm) could have prevented ecological communities from equilibrating to the continuously changing conditions, our comparisons confirm stable vegetation-climate relationships and support the use of fossil pollen records for quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. Overall, the network of records indicates that centennial climate variability has repeatedly affected the North Atlantic region with predictable consequences.

A postglacial paleoenvironmental dataset from New England.

This paleoenvironmental database features postglacial lake-sediment records from 31 study sites located across New England. The study sites span an environmental gradient from the cooler, northern and inland part of the region to the warmer, southern and coastal areas of New England. Sediment-core chronologies were determined using 14C dating, 210Pb analysis, and pollen evidence. Detailed analyses of sediment lithology, pollen, and charcoal were used to reconstruct changes in climate, vegetation, and fire at centennial temporal scales and subregional spatial scales for the last 14,000 years. Analyses of paleoenvironmental data provide insights into the rates, patterns, and drivers of ecosystem change, helping us anticipate future ecosystem dynamics and guiding present-day conservation strategies and land management.

A climatic driver for abrupt mid-Holocene vegetation dynamics and the hemlock decline in New England.

The mid-Holocene decline of eastern hemlock is widely viewed as the sole prehistorical example of an insect- or pathogen-mediated collapse of a North American tree species and has been extensively studied for insights into pest-host dynamics and the consequences to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of dominant-species removal. We report paleoecological evidence implicating climate as a major driver of this episode. Data drawn from sites across a gradient in hemlock abundance from dominant to absent demonstrate: a synchronous, dramatic decline in a contrasting taxon (oak); changes in lake sediments and aquatic taxa indicating low water levels; and one or more intervals of intense drought at regional to continental scales. These results, which accord well with emerging climate reconstructions, challenge the interpretation of a biotically driven hemlock decline and highlight the potential for climate change to generate major, abrupt dynamics in forest ecosystems.

Changes in nitrogen cycling during the past century in a northern hardwood forest.

Nitrogen (N) availability, defined here as the supply of N to terrestrial plants and soil microorganisms relative to their N demands, limits the productivity of many temperate zone forests and in part determines ecosystem carbon (C) content. Despite multidecadal monitoring of N in streams, the long-term record of N availability in forests of the northeastern United States is largely unknown. Therefore, although these forests have been receiving anthropogenic N deposition for the past few decades, it is still uncertain whether terrestrial N availability has changed during this time and, subsequently, whether forest ecosystems have responded to increased N deposition. Here, we used stable N isotopes in tree rings and lake sediments to demonstrate that N availability in a northeastern forest has declined over the past 75 years, likely because of ecosystem recovery from Euro-American land use. Forest N availability has only recently returned to levels forecast from presettlement trajectories, rendering the trajectory of future forest N cycling uncertain. Our results suggest that chronic disturbances caused by humans, especially logging and agriculture, are major drivers of terrestrial N cycling in forest ecosystems today, even a century after cessation.