Maximum likelihood estimation of generalized linear models for adaptive designs: Applications and asymptotics.

Due to increasing discoveries of biomarkers and observed diversity among patients, there is growing interest in personalized medicine for the purpose of increasing the well-being of patients (ethics) and extending human life. In fact, these biomarkers and observed heterogeneity among patients are useful covariates that can be used to achieve the ethical goals of clinical trials and improving the efficiency of statistical inference. Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) design was developed to use information in such covariates in randomization to maximize the well-being of participating patients as well as increase the efficiency of statistical inference at the end of a clinical trial. In this paper, we establish conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of generalized linear models (GLM) for a general class of adaptive designs. We prove that the ML estimators are consistent and asymptotically follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The efficiency of the estimators and the performance of response-adaptive (RA), CARA, and completely randomized (CR) designs are examined based on the well-being of patients under a logit model with categorical covariates. Results from our simulation studies and application to data from a clinical trial on stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (SPAF) show that RA designs lead to ethically desirable outcomes as well as higher statistical efficiency compared to CARA designs if there is no treatment by covariate interaction in an ideal model. CARA designs were however more ethical than RA designs when there was significant interaction.

Association Between Medication Adherence and Risk of COPD in Adult Asthma Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Canada.

Background: Poor adherence to prescribed asthma medications and risk of severe asthma exacerbations have been well established. However, the effects of changes in asthma medication compliance levels and subsequent risk of COPD is unknown and yet to be investigated. This study investigated the independent effect of medication adherence (MA) and asthma severity levels on the risk of COPD. Methods: We used four linked administrative health databases from the Population data BC to identify asthma patients aged 18 years and older between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 1999 without diagnosis of COPD. The primary event was time-to-COPD diagnosis during the follow-up period (January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2018). The proportion of days covered (PDC) - was used as a surrogate measure for medication adherence (MA) assessed at optimal-level (≥ 0.80), Intermediate-level (0.50-0.79), and low-level (< 0.5) of adherence. A propensity adjusted analysis with Marginal Structural Cox (MSC) model was employed to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the effect of medication adherence and asthma severity over time. Results: At cohort entry, the sample included 68,211 asthma patients with an overall mean age of 48.2 years. The 18-year incidence of COPD in asthma patients was 9.8 per 1000-persons year. In an inverse weighted propensity adjusted analysis of the MSC model, higher MA levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of COPD as follows: optimal-level (aHR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.17-0.24); Intermediate-level (aHR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.18, 0.23) compared to the low-level adherence group. A significant increase in COPD risk was observed in severe asthma patients with low medication adherence (aHR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.52-1.93), independent of other patient factors. Conclusion: Optimal (≥ 0.80) and intermediate adherence (0.5 to 0.79) levels were associated with reduced risk of COPD incidence over time. Interventions aimed at improving adherence to prescribed medications in adult asthma patients should be intensified to reduce their risk of COPD.

Measuring Medication Adherence in a Population-Based Asthma Administrative Pharmacy Database: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Limited studies have systematically reviewed the literature to identify and compare the various database methods and optimal thresholds for measuring medication adherence specific to adolescents and adults with asthma. In the present study, we aim to identify the methods and optimal thresholds for measuring medication adherence in population-based pharmacy databases. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (IPA), Web of Science, Google Scholar, and grey literature from January 1, 1998, to March 16, 2021. Two independent reviewers screened the studies, extracted the data, and assessed the quality of the studies. A quantitative knowledge synthesis was employed. RESULTS: Thirty-eight (38) retrospective cohort studies were eligible. This review identified 20 methods for measuring medication adherence in adolescent and adult asthma administrative health records. Two measures namely the medication possession ratio (MPR) and proportion of days covered (PDC) were commonly reported in 87% of the literature included in this study. From the meta-analysis, asthma patients who achieved adherence threshold of "0.75-1.00" [OR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.77] and ">0.5" [OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.94] were less likely to experience asthma exacerbation. CONCLUSION: Despite their limitations, the PDC and the MPR still remain the most common measures for assessing adherence in asthma pharmacy claim databases. The evidence synthesis showed that an adherence threshold of at least 0.75 is optimal for classifying adherent and non-adherent asthma patients.

Association between early history of asthma and COPD diagnosis in later life: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Whereas most studies have reported prior history/diagnosis of asthma as an independent risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) development in later life, no systematic review and meta-analysis has been conducted to synthesize these observational studies. The aim of this review is to investigate associations between prior history of asthma and later development of COPD. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search in PubMed, CINAHL and EMBASE for studies related to prior history of asthma and COPD diagnosis. Articles were screened for relevance by two independent reviewers. Methodological quality was independently assessed and data extracted for qualitative and quantitative review. We explored heterogeneity and performed a publication bias check. Results: From the 1260 articles retrieved, 9 were included in the qualitative review and 7 in the meta-analysis. History of asthma was associated with developing COPD in later life (Inverse Variance Random-effects model, odds ratio: 7.87, 95% confidence interval: 5.40-11.45, p < 0.00001). Conclusions: Studies with high methodological quality provided sufficient evidence to suggest that individuals with previous history of asthma have an increasing likelihood of developing COPD in later life.