Development of standards for assessing water quality in marine coastal waters of Bahrain.

Marine coastal waters of Bahrain are under pressure due to human activities and climate change. We used marine monitoring data (2005-2020) from 27 sites to establish baseline conditions and develop standards for assessments of water quality. Five hydrodynamic regions were identified: Oyster Beds, North, West, East, East (Coastal). Data from Oyster Beds sites, likely to be less impacted by human activities, were used to determine baseline conditions. For most parameters, candidate thresholds were based on 50 % and 100 % variation from baseline and 95th percentiles. Comparisons of data against different thresholds showed different outcomes. Overall, results indicate good water quality, with potential concerns in East (Coastal). Trend analyses showed some significant trends in all regions: downward (favourable) for some parameters (e.g. turbidity: North) and upward for others (e.g. nitrate: Oyster Beds, East and East (Coastal)). Future work requires greater understanding around optimum guidelines that protect and mitigate any adverse ecological impacts.

Setting nutrient thresholds to support an ecological assessment based on nutrient enrichment, potential primary production and undesirable disturbance.

The EU Water Framework Directive recognises that ecological status is supported by the prevailing physico-chemical conditions in each water body. This paper describes an approach to providing guidance on setting thresholds for nutrients taking account of the biological response to nutrient enrichment evident in different types of water. Indices of pressure, state and impact are used to achieve a robust nutrient (nitrogen) threshold by considering each individual index relative to a defined standard, scale or threshold. These indices include winter nitrogen concentrations relative to a predetermined reference value; the potential of the waterbody to support phytoplankton growth (estimated as primary production); and detection of an undesirable disturbance (measured as dissolved oxygen). Proposed reference values are based on a combination of historical records, offshore (limited human influence) nutrient concentrations, literature values and modelled data. Statistical confidence is based on a number of attributes, including distance of confidence limits away from a reference threshold and how well the model is populated with real data. This evidence based approach ensures that nutrient thresholds are based on knowledge of real and measurable biological responses in transitional and coastal waters.

Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas.