Infant deaths from respiratory syncytial virus in Lusaka, Zambia from the ZPRIME study: a 3-year, systematic, post-mortem surveillance project.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and a key driver of childhood mortality. Previous RSV burden of disease estimates used hospital-based surveillance data and modelled, rather than directly measured, community deaths. Given this uncertainty, we conducted a 3-year post-mortem prevalence study among young infants at a busy morgue in Lusaka, Zambia-the Zambia Pertussis RSV Infant Mortality Estimation (ZPRIME) study. METHODS: Infants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 4 days and less than 6 months and were enrolled within 48 h of death. Enrolment occurred mainly at the University Teaching Hospital of the University of Zambia Medical School (Lusaka, Zambia), the largest teaching hospital in Zambia. We extracted demographic and clinical data from medical charts and official death certificates, and we conducted verbal autopsies with the guardian or next of kin. RSV was identified using reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and stratified by age, time of year, and setting (community vs facility deaths). By combining the PCR prevalence data with syndromic presentation, we estimated the proportion of all infant deaths that were due to RSV. FINDINGS: The ZPRIME study ran from Aug 31, 2017, to Aug 31, 2020, except for from April 1 to May 6, 2020, during which data were not collected due to restrictions on human research at this time (linked to COVID-19). We enrolled 2286 deceased infants, representing 79% of total infant deaths in Lusaka. RSV was detected in 162 (7%) of 2286 deceased infants. RSV was detected in 102 (9%) of 1176 community deaths, compared with 10 (4%) of 236 early facility deaths (<48 h from admission) and 36 (5%) of 737 late facility deaths (≥48 h from admission). RSV deaths were concentrated in infants younger than 3 months (116 [72%] of 162 infants), and were clustered in the first half of each year and in the poorest and most densely populated Lusaka townships. RSV caused at least 2·8% (95% CI 1·0-4·6) of all infant deaths and 4·7% (1·3-8·1) of community deaths. INTERPRETATION: RSV was a major seasonal cause of overall infant mortality, particularly among infants younger than 3 months of age. Because most RSV deaths occurred in the community and would have been missed through hospital-based surveillance, the global burden of fatal RSV has probably been underestimated. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

What is the prevalence of COVID-19 detection by PCR among deceased individuals in Lusaka, Zambia? A postmortem surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of COVID-19 postmortem setting in Lusaka, Zambia. DESIGN: A systematic, postmortem prevalence study. SETTING: A busy, inner-city morgue in Lusaka. PARTICIPANTS: We sampled a random subset of all decedents who transited the University Teaching Hospital morgue. We sampled the posterior nasopharynx of decedents using quantitative PCR. Prevalence was weighted to account for age-specific enrolment strategies. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable-this was an observational study. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Prevalence of COVID-19 detections by PCR. Results were stratified by setting (facility vs community deaths), age, demographics and geography and time. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Shifts in viral variants; causal inferences based on cycle threshold values and other features; antemortem testing rates. RESULTS: From 1118 decedents enrolled between January and June 2021, COVID-19 was detected among 32.0% (358/1116). Roughly four COVID-19+ community deaths occurred for every facility death. Antemortem testing occurred for 52.6% (302/574) of facility deaths but only 1.8% (10/544) of community deaths and overall, only ~10% of COVID-19+ deaths were identified in life. During peak transmission periods, COVID-19 was detected in ~90% of all deaths. We observed three waves of transmission that peaked in July 2020, January 2021 and ~June 2021: the AE.1 lineage and the Beta and Delta variants, respectively. PCR signals were strongest among those whose deaths were deemed 'probably due to COVID-19', and weakest among children, with an age-dependent increase in PCR signal intensity. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was common among deceased individuals in Lusaka. Antemortem testing was rarely done, and almost never for community deaths. Suspicion that COVID-19 was the cause of deaths was highest for those with a respiratory syndrome and lowest for individuals <19 years.