A simple clinical risk score (ABCDMP) for predicting mortality in patients with AECOPD and cardiovascular diseases.

BACKGROUND: The morbidity and mortality among hospital inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs remains unacceptably high. Currently, no risk score for predicting mortality has been specifically developed in patients with AECOPD and CVDs. We therefore aimed to derive and validate a simple clinical risk score to assess individuals' risk of poor prognosis. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs in a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter cohort study. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the independent prognostic risk factors and created a risk score model according to patients' data from a derivation cohort. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The model was validated and compared with the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF and NIVO models in a validation cohort. RESULTS: We derived a combined risk score, the ABCDMP score, that included the following variables: age > 75 years, BUN > 7 mmol/L, consolidation, diastolic blood pressure ≤ 60 mmHg, mental status altered, and pulse > 109 beats/min. Discrimination (AUC 0.847, 95% CI, 0.805-0.890) and calibration (Hosmer‒Lemeshow statistic, P = 0.142) were good in the derivation cohort and similar in the validation cohort (AUC 0.811, 95% CI, 0.755-0.868). The ABCDMP score had significantly better predictivity for in-hospital mortality than the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF, and NIVO scores (all P < 0.001). Additionally, the new score also had moderate predictive performance for 3-year mortality and can be used to stratify patients into different management groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ABCDMP risk score could help predict mortality in AECOPD and CVDs patients and guide further clinical research on risk-based treatment. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO.:ChiCTR2100044625; URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626 .

Prediction model of in-hospital death for AECOPD patients admitted to ICU: the PD-ICU score.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) are exposed to poor clinical outcomes, and no specific prognostic models are available among these population. We aimed to develop and validate a risk score for prognosis prediction for these patients. METHODS: This was a multicenter observation study. AECOPD patients admitted to ICU were included for model derivation from a prospective, multicenter cohort study. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify independent predictors for in-hospital death and establish the prognostic risk score. The risk score was further validated and compared with DECAF, BAP-65, CURB-65 and APACHE Ⅱ score in another multicenter cohort. RESULTS: Five variables were identified as independent predictors for in-hospital death in APCOPD patients admitted to ICU, and a corresponding risk score (PD-ICU score) was established, which was composed of Procalcitonin>0.5ug/L, Diastolic Blood Pressure<60mmHg, Need for Invasive Mechanical Ventilation, Disturbance of Consciousness and Blood Urea Nitrogen>7.2mmol/L. Patients were classified into three risk categories according to PD-ICU score. The in-hospital mortality of low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients were 0.3%, 7.3%, and 27.9%, respectively. PD-ICU score displayed excellent discrimination ability with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.815 in the derivation cohort and 0.754 in the validation cohort which outperformed other prognostic models. CONCLUSION: We derived and validated a simple and clinician-friendly prediction model (PD-ICU score) for in-hospital mortality among AECOPD patients admitted to ICU. With good performance and clinical practicability, this model may facilitate early risk stratification and optimal decision-making among these patients.

Characteristics, treatments, in-hospital and long-term outcomes among inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China: sex differences in a large cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data related to the characteristics, treatments and clinical outcomes of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients in China are limited, and sex differences are still a neglected topic. METHODS: The patients hospitalized for AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from ten medical centers in China between September 2017 and July 2021. Patients from some centers received follow-up for 3 years. Data regarding the characteristics, treatments and in-hospital and long-term clinical outcomes from male and female AECOPD patients included in the cohort were analyzed and compared. RESULTS: In total, 14,007 patients with AECOPD were included in the study, and 11,020 (78.7%) were males. Compared with males, female patients were older (74.02 ± 10.79 vs. 71.86 ± 10.23 years, P < 0.001), and had more comorbidities (2.22 ± 1.64 vs. 1.73 ± 1.56, P < 0.001), a higher frequency of altered mental status (5.0% vs. 2.9%, P < 0.001), lower diastolic blood pressure (78.04 ± 12.96 vs. 79.04 ± 12.47 mmHg, P < 0.001). In addition, there were also significant sex differences in a range of laboratory and radiographic findings. Females were more likely to receive antibiotics, high levels of respiratory support and ICU admission than males. The in-hospital and 3-year mortality were not significantly different between males and females (1.4% vs. 1.5%, P = 0.711; 35.3% vs. 31.4%, P = 0.058), while female smokers with AECOPD had higher in-hospital mortality than male smokers (3.3% vs. 1.2%, P = 0.002) and male smokers exhibited a trend toward higher 3-year mortality compared to female smokers (40.7% vs. 33.1%, P = 0.146). CONCLUSIONS: In AECOPD inpatients, females and males had similar in-hospital and long-term survival despite some sex differences in clinical characteristics and treatments, but female smokers had significantly worse in-hospital outcomes than male smokers. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered, registration number is ChiCTR2100044625, date of registration 21/03/2021. URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626 .

Risk factors of in-hospital mortality and discriminating capacity of NIVO score in exacerbations of COPD requiring noninvasive ventilation.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) is recommended as the initial mode of ventilation to treat acute respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD. The Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score has been proposed to evaluate the prognosis in patients with AECOPD requiring assisted NIV. However, it is not validated in Chinese patients. METHODS: We used data from the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study, which is a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter, real-world study conducted between September 2017 and July 2021 in China. Data for the potential risk factors of mortality were collected and the NIVO score was calculated, and the in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the NIVO risk score. RESULTS: A total of 1164 patients were included in the study, and 57 patients (4.9%) died during their hospital stay. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥75 years, DBP <60 mmHg, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤14, anemia and BUN >7 mmol/L were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The in-hospital mortality was associated with an increase in the risk level of NIVO score and the difference was statistically significant (p < .001). The NIVO risk score showed an acceptable accuracy for predicting the in-hospital mortality in AECOPD requiring assisted NIV (AUC: 0.657, 95% CI: 0.584-0.729, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Our findings identified predictors of mortality in patients with AECOPD receiving NIV, providing useful information to identify severe patients and guide the management of AECOPD. The NIVO score showed an acceptable predictive value for AECOPD receiving NIV in Chinese patients, and additional studies are needed to develop and validate predictive scores based on specific populations.

Additive prognostic value of serum calcium to the ESC risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Hypocalcemia has been shown to be involved in the adverse outcomes of acute pulmonary embolism (APE). We aimed to determine the incremental value of adding hypocalcemia, defined as serum calcium level ≤ 2.12 mmol/L, on top of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic algorithm, for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in APE patients, which in turn could lead to the optimization of APE management. METHODS: This study was conducted at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2016 to December 2019. Patients with APE were retrospectively analyzed and divided into 2 groups based on serum calcium levels. Associations between hypocalcemia and adverse outcomes were assessed by Cox analysis. The accuracy of risk stratification for in-hospital mortality was assessed with the addition of serum calcium to the current ESC prognostic algorithm. RESULTS: Among 803 patients diagnosed with APE, 338 (42.1%) patients had serum calcium levels ≤ 2.12 mmol/L. Hypocalcemia was significantly associated with higher in-hospital and 2-year all-cause mortality compared to the control group. The addition of serum calcium to ESC risk stratification enhanced net reclassification improvement. Low-risk group with serum calcium level > 2.12 mmol/L had a 0% mortality rate, improving the negative predictive value up to 100%, while high-risk group with serum calcium level ≤ 2.12 mmol/L indicated a higher mortality of 25%. CONCLUSION: Our study identified serum calcium as a novel predictor of mortality in patients with APE. In the future, serum calcium may be added to the commonly used ESC prognostic algorithm for better risk stratification of patients suffering from APE.

Validation of the Rome Severity Classification of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: The Rome severity classification is an objective assessment tool for the severity of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) based on readily measurable variables but has not been widely validated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Rome classification in distinguishing the severity of AECOPD based on short-term mortality and other adverse outcomes. Methods: The Rome severity classification was applied to a large multicenter cohort of inpatients with AECOPD. Differences in clinical features, in-hospital and 60-day mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (MV) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) usage were compared among the mild, moderate and severe AECOPD according to the Rome proposal. Moreover, univariate logistic analysis and Kaplan Meier survival analysis were also performed to find the association between the Rome severity classification and those adverse outcomes. Results: A total of 7712 patients hospitalized for AECOPD were included and classified into mild (41.88%), moderate (40.33%), or severe (17.79%) group according to the Rome proposal. The rate of ICU admission (6.4% vs 12.0% vs 14.9%, P <0.001), MV (11.7% vs 33.7% vs 45.3%, P <0.001) and IMV (1.4% vs 6.8% vs 8.9%, P <0.001) increased significantly with the increase of severity classification from mild to moderate to severe AECOPD. The 60-day mortality was higher in the moderate or severe group than in the mild group (3.5% vs 1.9%, 4.3% vs 1.9%, respectively, P <0.05) but showed no difference between the moderate and severe groups (2.6% vs 2.5%, P >0.05), results for in-hospital mortality showed the same trends. Similar findings were observed by univariate logistic analysis and survival analysis. Conclusion: Rome severity classification demonstrated excellent performance in predicting ICU admission and the need for MV or IMV, but how it performs in differentiating short-term mortality still needs to be confirmed.

Low diastolic blood pressure and adverse outcomes in inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although intensively studied in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the prognostic value of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) has little been elucidated in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This study aimed to reveal the prognostic value of DBP in AECOPD patients. METHODS: Inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from 10 medical centers in China between September 2017 and July 2021. DBP was measured on admission. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality; invasive mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were secondary outcomes. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable Cox regressions were used to identify independent prognostic factors and calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Among 13,633 included patients with AECOPD, 197 (1.45%) died during their hospital stay. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that low DBP on admission (<70 mmHg) was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality (HR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.53-3.05, Z = 4.37, P <0.01), invasive mechanical ventilation (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.32-2.05, Z = 19.67, P <0.01), and ICU admission (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.24-1.69, Z = 22.08, P <0.01) in the overall cohort. Similar findings were observed in subgroups with or without CVDs, except for invasive mechanical ventilation in the subgroup with CVDs. When DBP was further categorized in 5-mmHg increments from <50 mmHg to ≥100 mmHg, and 75 to <80 mmHg was taken as reference, HRs for in-hospital mortality increased almost linearly with decreased DBP in the overall cohort and subgroups of patients with CVDs; higher DBP was not associated with the risk of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: Low on-admission DBP, particularly <70 mmHg, was associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes among inpatients with AECOPD, with or without CVDs, which may serve as a convenient predictor of poor prognosis in these patients. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trail Registry, No. ChiCTR2100044625.

Elevated BUN Upon Admission as a Predictor of in-Hospital Mortality Among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of COPD: A Secondary Analysis of Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: High blood urea nitrogen (BUN) is observed in a subset of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) and may be linked to clinical outcome, but findings from previous studies have been inconsistent. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of patients prospectively enrolled in the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study (ChiCTR2100044625). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to determine the level of BUN that discriminated survivors and non-survivors. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess the impact of BUN on adverse outcomes. Results: Overall, 13,431 consecutive inpatients with AECOPD were included in this study, of whom 173 died, with the mortality of 1.29%. The non-survivors had higher levels of BUN compared with the survivors [9.5 (6.8-15.3) vs 5.6 (4.3-7.5) mmol/L, P < 0.001]. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cutoff of BUN level was 7.30 mmol/L for in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.782; 95% CI: 0.748-0.816; P < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, BUN level ≥7.3 mmol/L was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality (HR = 2.099; 95% CI: 1.378-3.197, P = 0.001), also for invasive mechanical ventilation (HR = 1.540; 95% CI: 1.199-1.977, P = 0.001) and intensive care unit admission (HR = 1.344; 95% CI: 1.117-1.617, P = 0.002). Other independent prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality including age, renal dysfunction, heart failure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, PaCO2 and D-dimer. Conclusion: BUN is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in inpatients with AECOPD and may be used to identify serious (or severe) patients and guide the management of AECOPD. Clinical Trial Registration: MAGNET AECOPD; Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO.: ChiCTR2100044625; Registered March 2021, URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626.

Blood Eosinophils and Clinical Outcomes in Inpatients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Purpose: The prognostic value of blood eosinophils in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) remains controversial. This study aimed to evaluate whether blood eosinophils could predict in-hospital mortality and other adverse outcomes in inpatients with AECOPD. Methods: The patients hospitalized for AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from ten medical centers in China. Peripheral blood eosinophils were detected on admission, and the patients were divided into eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic groups with 2% as the cutoff value. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 12,831 AECOPD inpatients were included. The non-eosinophilic group was associated with higher in-hospital mortality than the eosinophilic group in the overall cohort (1.8% vs 0.7%, P < 0.001), the subgroup with pneumonia (2.3% vs 0.9%, P = 0.016) or with respiratory failure (2.2% vs 1.1%, P = 0.009), but not in the subgroup with ICU admission (8.4% vs 4.5%, P = 0.080). The lack of association still remained even after adjusting for confounding factors in subgroup with ICU admission. Being consistent across the overall cohort and all subgroups, non-eosinophilic AECOPD was also related to greater rates of invasive mechanical ventilation (4.3% vs 1.3%, P < 0.001), ICU admission (8.9% vs 4.2%, P < 0.001), and, unexpectedly, systemic corticosteroid usage (45.3% vs 31.7%, P < 0.001). Non-eosinophilic AECOPD was associated with longer hospital stay in the overall cohort and subgroup with respiratory failure (both P < 0.001) but not in those with pneumonia (P = 0.341) or ICU admission (P = 0.934). Conclusion: Peripheral blood eosinophils on admission may be used as an effective biomarker to predict in-hospital mortality in most AECOPD inpatients, but not in patients admitted into ICU. Eosinophil-guided corticosteroid therapy should be further studied to better guide the administration of corticosteroids in clinical practice.

Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to explore the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and to derive a prognostic model for patients with APE in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Inpatients with APE were enrolled from West China Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore risk factors for in-hospital mortality and develop a prognostic model. RESULTS: A total of 813 subjects with APE were included in this study, of whom 542 were in the training set and 271 were in the test set. Multivariable regression analyses indicated that age, male, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, elevated NT-proBNP or troponin T, malignancy, chronic renal insufficiency, and respiratory failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. For the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve was 0.899, with a sensitivity and specificity of 89.7% and 77.7%, respectively. The model had higher prediction accuracy than the PESI and sPESI. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model has proven excellent discrimination and calibration, which may be a useful tool to help physicians make decisions regarding the best treatment strategy.

Superior Predictive Value of D-Dimer to the Padua Prediction Score for Venous Thromboembolism in Inpatients with AECOPD: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: The optimal tool for risk prediction of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is still unknown. This study aimed to evaluate whether D-dimer could predict the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD compared to the Padua Prediction Score (PPS). Methods: Inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from seven medical centers in China between December 2018 and June 2020. On admission, D-dimer was detected, PPS was calculated for each patient, and the incidence of 2-month VTE was investigated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of D-dimer and PPS on VTE development, and the best cut-off value for both methods was evaluated through the Youden index. Results: Among the 4468 eligible patients with AECOPD, 90 patients (2.01%) developed VTE within 2 months after admission. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of D-dimer for predicting VTE were significantly higher than those of the PPS both in the overall cohort (0.724, 95% CI 0.672-0.776 vs 0.620, 95% CI 0.562-0.679; P<0.05) and the subgroup of patients without thromboprophylaxis (0.747, 95% CI 0.695-0.799 vs 0.640, 95% CI 0.582-0.698; P<0.05). By calculating the Youden Index, the best cut-off value of D-dimer was determined to be 0.96 mg/L with an AUC of 0.689, which was also significantly better than that of the PPS with the best cut-off value of 2 (AUC 0.581, P=0.007). After the combination of D-dimer with PPS, the AUC (0.621) failed to surpass D-dimer alone (P=0.104). Conclusion: D-dimer has a superior predictive value for VTE over PPS in inpatients with AECOPD, which might be a better choice to guide thromboprophylaxis in inpatients with AECOPD due to its effectiveness and convenience. Clinical Trial Registration: Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO. ChiCTR2100044625; URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626.

Validation of Risk Assessment Models Predicting Venous Thromboembolism in Inpatients with Acute Exacerbation Of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Multicenter Cohort Study in China.

BACKGROUND: Inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE); however, the prophylaxis for VTE is largely underused in China. Identifying high-risk patients requiring thromboprophylaxis is critical to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with VTE. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the validities of the Padua Prediction Score and Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) in predicting the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD in China. METHODS: The inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from seven medical centers of China between September 2017 and January 2020. Caprini and Padua scores were calculated on admission, and the incidence of 3-month VTE was investigated. RESULTS: Among the 3,277 eligible patients with AECOPD, 128 patients (3.9%) developed VTE within 3 months after admission. The distribution of the study population by the Caprini risk level was as follows: high, 53.6%; moderate, 43.0%; and low, 3.5%. The incidence of VTE increased by risk level as high, 6.1%; moderate, 1.5%; and low, 0%. According to the Padua RAM, only 10.9% of the study population was classified as high risk and 89.1% as low risk, with the corresponding incidence of VTE of 7.9 and 3.4%, respectively. The Caprini RAM had higher area under curve compared with the Padua RAM (0.713 ± 0.021 vs. 0.644 ± 0.023, p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: The Caprini RAM was superior to the Padua RAM in predicting the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD and might better guide thromboprophylaxis in these patients.

Hydatid Pulmonary Embolism: A Case Report and Literature Review.

BACKGROUND Infection with Echinococcus granulosus is endemic in sheep and dogs in Central Asia, including Tibet. In humans, ingested parasites from the gastrointestinal system enter the liver via the portal vein. Rarely, hepatic hydatid cysts can rupture into the portal vein and embolize to the lungs. This report is of a 58-year-old woman with liver cysts and a pulmonary embolism due to hydatid disease. CASE REPORT We present a rare case of a pulmonary embolism caused by a hydatid cyst. A 58-year-old woman from the Tibet Autonomous Region of China was admitted to the hospital with symptoms of chest and back pain and shortness of breath within the previous 6 months. She had a 5-year history of hepatic echinococcosis. During hospitalization, the patient reported having aggravated chest and back pain and she developed a new symptom of hemoptysis. A pulmonary embolism was confirmed by computed tomography pulmonary angiography. After a multidisciplinary consultation, and based on the patient's medical history, clinical manifestations, laboratory test results, and imaging findings, a diagnosis of a pulmonary embolism caused by a hydatid cyst was established. CONCLUSIONS This report shows the importance of imaging findings in diagnosing a non-thrombotic pulmonary embolism due to hepatic hydatid disease. In this case, early and accurate diagnosis resulted in appropriate treatment with multidisciplinary patient management.