Performance of pre-transplant criteria in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma progression and waitlist dropout.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout. METHODS: A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics. RESULTS: HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: Prognostic and predictive factors of survival in a Latin American cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) has a poor prognosis, and the adjusted effect of different treatments on post-recurrence survival (PRS) has not been well defined. This study aims to evaluate prognostic and predictive variables associated with PRS. METHODS: This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients who underwent LT between the years 2005-2018. We evaluated the effect of baseline characteristics at time of HCC recurrence diagnosis and PRS (Cox regression analysis). Early recurrences were those occurring within 12 months of LT. To evaluate the adjusted treatment effect for HCC recurrence, a propensity score matching analysis was performed to assess the probability of having received any specific treatment for recurrence. RESULTS: From a total of 1085 transplanted HCC patients, the cumulative incidence of recurrence was 16.6% (CI 13.5-20.3), with median time to recurrence of 13.0 months (IQR 6.0-26.0). Factors independently associated with PRS were early recurrence (47.6%), treatment with sorafenib and surgery/trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE). Patients who underwent any treatment presented "early recurrences" less frequently, and more extrahepatic metastasis. This unbalanced distribution was included in the propensity score matching, with correct calibration and discrimination (receiving operator curve of 0.81 [CI 0.72;0.88]). After matching, the adjusted effect on PRS for any treatment was HR of 0.2 (0.10;0.33); P < .0001, for sorafenib therapy HR of 0.4 (0.27;0.77); P = .003, and for surgery/TACE HR of 0.4 (0.18;0.78); P = .009. CONCLUSION: Although early recurrence was associated with worse outcome, even in this population, systemic or locoregional treatments were associated with better PRS.