A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19.

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

Large numbers cause magnitude neglect: The case of government expenditures.

Four studies demonstrate that the public's understanding of government budgetary expenditures is hampered by difficulty in representing large numerical magnitudes. Despite orders of magnitude difference between millions and billions, study participants struggle with the budgetary magnitudes of government programs. When numerical values are rescaled as smaller magnitudes (in the thousands or lower), lay understanding improves, as indicated by greater sensitivity to numerical ratios and more accurate rank ordering of expenses. A robust benefit of numerical rescaling is demonstrated across a variety of experimental designs, including policy relevant choices and incentive-compatible accuracy measures. This improved sensitivity ultimately impacts funding choices and public perception of respective budgets, indicating the importance of numerical cognition for good citizenship.

Clearing the air: evaluating institutions' social media health messaging on wildfire and smoke risks in the US Pacific Northwest.

BACKGROUND: Wildfire smoke contributes substantially to the global disease burden and is a major cause of air pollution in the US states of Oregon and Washington. Climate change is expected to bring more wildfires to this region. Social media is a popular platform for health promotion and a need exists for effective communication about smoke risks and mitigation measures to educate citizens and safeguard public health. METHODS: Using a sample of 1,287 Tweets from 2022, we aimed to analyze temporal Tweeting patterns in relation to potential smoke exposure and evaluate and compare institutions' use of social media communication best practices which include (i) encouraging adoption of smoke-protective actions; (ii) leveraging numeric, verbal, and Air Quality Index risk information; and (iii) promoting community-building. Tweets were characterized using keyword searches and the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software. Descriptive and inferential statistics were carried out. RESULTS: 44% of Tweets in our sample were authored between January-August 2022, prior to peak wildfire smoke levels, whereas 54% of Tweets were authored during the two-month peak in smoke (September-October). Institutional accounts used Twitter (or X) to encourage the adoption of smoke-related protective actions (82% of Tweets), more than they used it to disseminate wildfire smoke risk information (25%) or promote community-building (47%). Only 10% of Tweets discussed populations vulnerable to wildfire smoke health effects, and 14% mentioned smoke mitigation measures. Tweets from Washington-based accounts used significantly more verbal and numeric risk information to discuss wildfire smoke than Oregon-based accounts (p = 0.042 and p = 0.003, respectively); however, Tweets from Oregon-based accounts on average contained a higher percentage of words associated with community-building language (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This research provides practical recommendations for public health practitioners and researchers communicating wildfire smoke risks on social media. As exposures to wildfire smoke rise due to climate change, reducing the environmental disease burden requires health officials to leverage popular communication platforms, distribute necessary health-related messaging rapidly, and get the message right. Timely, evidence-based, and theory-driven messaging is critical for educating and empowering individuals to make informed decisions about protecting themselves from harmful exposures. Thus, proactive and sustained communications about wildfire smoke should be prioritized even during wildfire "off-seasons."

Polyurethane Implants in Revisional Breast Augmentation: A Prospective 5-Year Study.

BACKGROUND: Revisional surgery for aesthetic breast augmentation remains a challenging procedure. Polyurethane (PU) implants have been found to avoid capsular contracture recurrence as well as to prevent implant displacement by bio-integrating with the pocket. OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to assess the use of PU implants in breast revisional surgery and to provide an algorithm. METHODS: Over a 5-year period, a prospective study was conducted involving consecutive patients undergoing implant revision. Patient demographics, previous breast procedures, and specific surgical details were documented. Postoperative outcomes were followed up. RESULTS: Out of 92 patients (184 breasts), 78 (156 breasts) were included in the analysis. The average age was 47.5, with a BMI of 22.3 and a mean follow-up of 5 years. A majority (63%) represented secondary revisional cases, while 37% were tertiary cases. Implant size averaged 296 cc, with 53% placed in retropectoral position and 47% prepectoral. Significantly more implants in secondary cases were changed from prepectoral to retropectoral (P = .005), and in tertiary changed from retropectoral to prepectoral (P = .002). Complete capsulectomy was performed in 61.5% and partial in 25.6%. Additional lipofilling was performed in 32%, and concurrent mastopexy in 40%. Revisional surgery in our series had a 1.9% acute complication rate, 4.5% longer-term reoperation rate for corrections, 0.6% implant exchange rate, and no recurrent capsular contracture. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to provide data on outcomes of revisional breast augmentation surgery with PU implants. It shows that polyurethane implants offer consistent stability and have low rates of recurrent capsular contracture in revisional surgery.

Motivations to learn genomic information are not exceptional: Lessons from behavioral science.

Whether to undergo genome sequencing in a clinical or research context is generally a voluntary choice. Individuals are often motivated to learn genomic information even when clinical utility-the possibility that the test could inform medical recommendations or health outcomes-is low or absent. Motivations to seek one's genomic information can be cognitive, affective, social, or mixed (e.g., cognitive and affective) in nature. These motivations are based on the perceived value of the information, specifically, its clinical utility and personal utility. We suggest that motivations to learn genomic information are no different from motivations to learn other types of personal information, including one's health status and disease risk. Here, we review behavioral science relevant to motivations that may drive engagement with genome sequencing, both in the presence of varying degrees of clinical utility and in the absence of clinical utility. Specifically, we elucidate 10 motivations that are expected to underlie decisions to undergo genome sequencing. Recognizing these motivations to learn genomic information will guide future research and ultimately help clinicians to facilitate informed decision making among individuals as genome sequencing becomes increasingly available.

Using an Elastomeric Skin Protectant to Manage Donor Site Wounds of Split-thickness Skin Grafts: A Case Series.

ABSTRACT: Split-thickness skin grafting (STSG) is a common surgical procedure to manage acute and chronic wounds. A plethora of dressings exists to treat STSG donor site wounds (DSWs). Recently, a new elastomeric skin protectant was adopted (Cavilon Advanced Skin Protectant; 3M) in the treatment of incontinence-associated dermatitis. In this report, the authors assess the effects of this elastomeric skin protectant as an alternative wound dressing for STSG donor sites.The authors report a single-center prospective case series that was performed to establish a treatment protocol. Nine consecutive patients with different indications for treatment with an STSG from May to September 2018 were included. Collected data included general patient information, comorbidities, complications, blood loss, pain during dressing change, and the duration of DSW healing.This case series showed promising results in terms of duration of DSW healing when applying the elastomeric skin protectant. The authors also observed less blood loss and less pain during dressing changes. No infections were seen during the trial.

Despite high objective numeracy, lower numeric confidence relates to worse financial and medical outcomes.

People often laugh about being "no good at math." Unrecognized, however, is that about one-third of American adults are likely too innumerate to operate effectively in financial and health environments. Two numeric competencies conceivably matter-objective numeracy (ability to "run the numbers" correctly; like literacy but with numbers) and numeric self-efficacy (confidence that provides engagement and persistence in numeric tasks). We reasoned, however, that attaining objective numeracy's benefits should depend on numeric confidence. Specifically, among the more objectively numerate, having more numeric confidence (vs. less) should lead to better outcomes because they persist in numeric tasks and have the skills to support numeric success. Among the less objectively numerate, however, having more (vs. less) numeric confidence should hurt outcomes, as they also persist, but make unrecognized mistakes. Two studies were designed to test the generalizability of this hypothesized interaction. We report secondary analysis of financial outcomes in a diverse US dataset and primary analysis of disease activity among systemic lupus erythematosus patients. In both domains, best outcomes appeared to require numeric calculation skills and the persistence of numeric confidence. "Mismatched" individuals (high ability/low confidence or low ability/high confidence) experienced the worst outcomes. For example, among the most numerate patients, only 7% of the more numerically confident had predicted disease activity indicative of needing further treatment compared with 31% of high-numeracy/low-confidence patients and 44% of low-numeracy/high-confidence patients. Our work underscores that having 1 of these competencies (objective numeracy or numeric self-efficacy) does not guarantee superior outcomes.

Ability-related political polarization in the COVID-19 pandemic.

In two large-scale longitudinal datasets (combined N = 5761), we investigated ability-related political polarization in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed more polarization with greater ability in emotional responses, risk perceptions, and product-purchase intentions across five waves of data collection with a diverse, convenience sample from February 2020 through July 2020 (Study 1, N = 1267). Specifically, more liberal participants had more negative emotional responses and greater risk perceptions of COVID-19 than conservative participants. Compared to conservatives, liberal participants also interpreted quantitative information as indicating higher COVID-19 risk and sought COVID-related news more from liberal than conservative news media. Of key importance, we also compared verbal and numeric cognitive abilities for their independent capacity to predict greater polarization. Although measures of numeric ability, such as objective numeracy, are often used to index ability-related polarization, ideological differences were more pronounced among those higher in verbal ability specifically. Similar results emerged in secondary analysis of risk perceptions in a nationally representative longitudinal dataset (Study 2, N = 4494; emotions and purchase intentions were not included in this dataset). We further confirmed verbal-ability-related polarization findings on non-COVID policy attitudes (i.e., weapons bans and Medicare-for-all) measured cross-sectionally. The present Study 2 documented ability-related polarization emerging over time for the first time (rather than simply measuring polarization in existing beliefs). Both studies demonstrated verbal ability measures as the most robust predictors of ability-related polarization. Together, these results suggest that polarization may be a function of the amount and/or application of verbal knowledge rather than selective application of quantitative reasoning skills.

Measuring Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions.

Risk perception is an important construct in many health behavior theories. Smoking risk perceptions are thoughts and feelings about the harms associated with cigarette smoking. Wide variation in the terminology, definition, and assessment of this construct makes it difficult to draw conclusions about the associations of risk perceptions with smoking behaviors. To understand optimal methods of assessing adults' cigarette smoking risk perceptions (among both smokers and nonsmokers), we reviewed best practices from the tobacco control literature, and where gaps were identified, we looked more broadly to the research on risk perceptions in other health domains. Based on this review, we suggest assessments of risk perceptions (1) about multiple smoking-related health harms, (2) about harms over a specific timeframe, and (3) for the person affected by the harm. For the measurement of perceived likelihood in particular (ie, the perceived chance of harm from smoking based largely on deliberative thought), we suggest including (4) unconditional and conditional items (stipulating smoking behavior) and (5) absolute and comparative items and including (6) comparisons to specific populations through (7) direct and indirect assessments. We also suggest including (8) experiential (ostensibly automatic, somatic perceptions of vulnerability to a harm) and affective (emotional reactions to a potential harm) risk perception items. We also offer suggestions for (9) response options and (10) the assessment of risk perception at multiple time points. Researchers can use this resource to inform the selection, use, and future development of smoking risk perception measures. IMPLICATIONS: Incorporating the measurement suggestions for cigarette smoking risk perceptions that are presented will help researchers select items most appropriate for their research questions and will contribute to greater consistency in the assessment of smoking risk perceptions among adults.

Communicating about chemicals in cigarette smoke: impact on knowledge and misunderstanding.

BACKGROUND: The USA must publicly share information about harmful and potentially harmful constituents (chemicals) in tobacco products. We sought to understand whether webpages with chemical information are "understandable and not misleading to a lay person." METHODS: Participants were a national probability sample of US adults and adolescents (n=1441, 18% smokers). In an online experiment, we randomly assigned participants to view one of the developed webpages (chemical names only, names with quantity ranges, names with visual risk indicators) or no webpage in phase one (between subjects). Participants completed a survey assessing knowledge, misunderstanding, perceived likelihood, perceived severity of health effects from smoking and quit intentions (smokers only). In phase two (within subjects), participants viewed all three webpage formats and reported webpage perceptions (clarity, usability, usefulness) and perceived impact (affect, elaboration, perceived effectiveness). RESULTS: In phase one, viewing any webpage led to more knowledge of chemicals (48%-54% vs 28% no webpage, ps<0.001) and health harms (77% vs 67% no webpage, ps<0.001). When exposed to any webpage, 5%-23% endorsed misunderstandings that some cigarettes are safer than others. Webpage format did not affect knowledge or reduce misunderstandings. Viewing any webpage led to higher perceived likelihood of experiencing health effects from smoking (p<0.001) and, among smokers, greater intentions to quit smoking (p=0.04). In phase two, where participants viewed all formats, a visual risk indicator led to the highest perceived impact. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of chemicals and health effects can increase after viewing a website. Yet, websites may not correct the misunderstanding that some cigarettes are safer.

Pictorial Warning Labels and Memory for Cigarette Health-risk Information Over Time.

BACKGROUND: Pictorial cigarette warning labels are thought to increase risk knowledge, but experimental research has not examined longer-term effects on memory for health risks named in text. PURPOSE: To investigate memory-consolidation predictions that high- versus low-emotion warnings would support better long-term memory for named cigarette health risks and to test a mediational model of warning-label effects through memory on risk perceptions and quit intentions. METHODS: A combined sample of U.S.-representative adult smokers, U.S.-representative teen smokers/vulnerable smokers, and Appalachian-representative adult smokers were randomly assigned to a warning-label condition (High-emotion pictorial, Low-emotion pictorial, Text-only) in which they were exposed four times to nine warning labels and reported emotional reactions and elaboration. Memory of warning-label risk information, smoking risk perceptions, and quit intentions were assessed immediately after exposures or 6 weeks later. RESULTS: Recall of warning-label text was low across the samples and supported memory-consolidation predictions. Specifically, immediate recall was highest for Low-emotion warnings that elicited the least emotion, but recall also declined the most over time in this condition, leaving its 6-week recall lowest; 6-week recall was similar for High-emotion and Text-only warnings. Greater recall was associated with higher risk perceptions and greater quit intentions and mediated part of warning-label effects on these important smoking outcomes. High-emotion warnings had additional non-memory-related effects on risk perceptions and quit intentions that were superior to text-only warnings. CONCLUSIONS: High- but not Low-emotion pictorial warning labels may support the Food and Drug Administration's primary goal to "effectively convey the negative health consequences of smoking." CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT03375840.

The Influence of Health Numeracy and Health Warning Label Type on Smoking Myths and Quit-Related Reactions.

INTRODUCTION: Health numeracy helps individuals understand risk information, but limited data exist concerning numeracy's role in reactions to varying types of health warning labels (HWLs) for cigarettes. METHODS: A nationally representative online panel of adult current smokers received two exposures (1 week apart) to nine HWLs with either text-only or pictorial images with identical mandated text. Following the second exposure, participants (n = 594) rated their beliefs in smoking myths (eg, health-promoting behaviors can undo the risks of smoking) and how much the warnings made them want to quit smoking. Generalized estimating equation regression examined the relation of objective health numeracy and its interaction with HWL type to smoking-myth beliefs and quit-related reactions. RESULTS: Health numeracy was not significantly associated with smoking-myth beliefs; the interaction with HWL type was also nonsignificant. Adult smokers with lower health numeracy had higher quit-related reactions than those with higher numeracy following exposure to HWLs. The type of HWL significantly modified numeracy's associations with quit-related reactions; no significant association existed between text-only HWLs and quit-related reactions, whereas among those who viewed the pictorial warnings, lower numeracy was associated with greater quit-related reactions (ß = -.23; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Lower as compared to higher health numeracy was significantly associated with higher quit-related reactions to HWLs and especially with pictorial HWLs. Health numeracy and HWL type were not associated with the endorsement of smoking myths. The role of health numeracy in effectively communicating risks to smokers warrants thoughtful consideration in the development of tobacco HWLs. IMPLICATIONS: Health numeracy plays an important role in an individual's ability to understand and respond to health risks. Smokers with lower health numeracy had greater quit-related reactions to pictorial health warnings than those who viewed text-only warning labels. Development and testing of health warning labels should consider health numeracy to most effectively communicate risk to US smokers.

Advancing Tobacco Product Warning Labels Research Methods and Theory: A Summary of a Grantee Meeting Held by the US National Cancer Institute.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control recommends prominent pictorial health warnings on tobacco products. To advance research methods, theory and understanding of how tobacco product warning labels (TPWLs) work, the US National Cancer Institute convened a grantee meeting. Our article describes the key insights that emerged from the meeting, situated within the context of the scientific literature. RESULTS & RECOMMENDATIONS: First, presentations confirmed that large, pictorial TPWLs motivate people to try to quit and encourage smoking cessation. Second, pictorial TPWLs increase attention, knowledge, negative affect, and thinking about the warning. Third, TPWL studies have primarily used brief-exposure laboratory studies and observational studies of sustained exposure through national policy implementation, with a few randomized trials involving several weeks of exposure-with generally consistent results found across study designs. Fourth, novel assessment methods include brain imaging, eye tracking and "best-worst" discrete choice experiments. To make TPWL even more effective, research is needed to confirm the mechanisms of their influence, their impact across vulnerable populations, and their effect on social media posts about tobacco products. Research is also needed on the effect of trial design choices, the predictive validity of new measurement approaches, and warning labels for non-cigarette tobacco products. IMPLICATIONS: To improve scientific understanding of TPWL effects, this grantee meeting summary describes emerging research methods, theory and study results. Directions for future research include examination of the mechanisms of how warning labels work across diverse tobacco products and across different populations and contexts.

Website Designs for Communicating About Chemicals in Cigarette Smoke.

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act requires the US government to inform the public about the quantities of toxic chemicals in cigarette smoke. A website can accomplish this task efficiently, but the site's user interface must be usable to benefit the general public. We conducted online experiments with national convenience samples of 1,451 US adult smokers and nonsmokers to examine the impact of four interface display elements: the chemicals, their associated health effects, quantity information, and a visual risk indicator. Outcomes were perceptions of user experience (perceived clarity and usability), motivation (willingness to use), and potential impact (elaboration about the harms of smoking). We found displaying health effects as text with icons, providing quantity information for chemicals (e.g., ranges), and showing a visual risk indicator all improved the user experience of a webpage about chemicals in cigarette smoke (all p < .05). Displaying a combination of familiar and unfamiliar chemicals, providing quantity information for chemicals, and showing a visual risk indicator all improved motivation to use the webpage (all p < .05). Displaying health effects or quantity information increased the potential impact of the webpage (all p < .05). Overall, interface designs displaying health effects of chemicals in cigarette smoke as text with icons and with a visual risk indicator had the greatest impact on the user experience, motivation, and potential impact of the website. Our findings provide guidance for accessible website designs that can inform consumers about the toxic chemicals in cigarette smoke.

Health Warning Labels for Smokeless Tobacco: The Impact of Graphic Images on Attention, Recall, and Craving.

INTRODUCTION: Little research has examined the impacts of graphic health warnings on the users of smokeless tobacco products. METHODS: A convenience sample of past-month, male smokeless tobacco users (n = 142; 100% male) was randomly assigned to view a smokeless tobacco advertisement with a graphic health warning (GHW) or a text-only warning. Eye-tracking equipment measured viewing time, or dwell time, in milliseconds. Following the advertisement exposure, participants self-reported smokeless tobacco craving and recalled any content in the health warning message (unaided recall). Linear and logistic regression analyses evaluated the proportion of time viewing the GHW, craving, and GHW recall. RESULTS: Participants who viewed a GHW spent a significantly greater proportion of their ad viewing time on GHWs (2.87 seconds or 30%), compared to those viewing a text-only warning (2.05 seconds or 24%). Although there were no significant differences by condition in total advertisement viewing duration, those participants viewing a GHW had increased recall of health warning messages compared to the text-only warning (76% had any warning message recall compared to 53%; p < .05). Self-reported craving after advertisement exposure was lower in the GHW compared to text-only condition, but the difference was not statistically significant (a rating of 4.4 vs. 5.3 on a 10-point scale; p = .08). CONCLUSIONS: GHWs attracted greater attention and greater recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings among rural male smokeless tobacco users. IMPLICATIONS: Among a sample of rural smokeless tobacco users, GHWs attracted more attention and recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings when viewed within smokeless tobacco advertising. These findings provide additional empirical support that GHWs are an effective tobacco control tool for all tobacco products and advertisements.

Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels Are Not Created Equal: They Can Increase or Decrease Smokers' Quit Intentions Relative to Text-Only Warnings.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette graphic-warning labels elicit negative emotion. Research suggests negative emotion drives greater risk perceptions and quit intentions through multiple processes. The present research compares text-only warning effectiveness to that of graphic warnings eliciting more or less negative emotion. METHODS: Nationally representative online panels of 736 adult smokers and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers were randomly assigned to view one of three warning types (text-only, text with low-emotion images, or text with high-emotion images) four times over 2 weeks. Participants recorded their emotional reaction to the warnings (measured as arousal), smoking risk perceptions, and quit intentions. Primary analyses used structural equation modeling. RESULTS: Participants in the high-emotion condition reported greater emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = 0.21; bTeen = 0.27, p's < .004); those in the low-emotion condition reported lower emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = -0.18; bTeen = -0.22, p's < .018). Stronger emotional reaction was associated with increased risk perceptions in both samples (bAdult = 0.66; bTeen = 0.85, p's < .001) and greater quit intentions among adults (bAdult = 1.00, p < .001). Compared to text-only warnings, low-emotion warnings were associated with reduced risk perceptions and quit intentions whereas high-emotion warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions. CONCLUSION: Warning labels with images that elicit more negative emotional reaction are associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions in adults and teens relative to text-only warnings. However, graphic warnings containing images which evoke little emotional reaction can backfire and reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. IMPLICATIONS: This research is the first to directly manipulate two emotion levels in sets of nine cigarette graphic warning images and compare them with text-only warnings. Among adult and teen smokers, high-emotion graphic warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Low-emotion graphic warnings backfired and tended to reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Policy makers should be aware that merely placing images on cigarette packaging is insufficient to increase smokers' risk perceptions and quit intentions. Low-emotion graphic warnings will not necessarily produce desired population-level benefits relative to text-only or high-emotion warnings.

Icons for health effects of cigarette smoke: a test of semiotic type.

We sought to identify icons to effectively communicate health harms of chemicals in cigarette smoke. Participants were a convenience sample of 701 U.S. adults. A within-subjects online experiment explored the effects of icon semiotic type: symbolic (arbitrary, most abstract), indexical, and iconic (representative, most concrete). Outcomes were perceived representation, affect toward smoking, elaboration, perceived severity, and perceived effectiveness. For not-easy-to-visualize harms of cancer and addiction, symbolic icons received the highest ratings (all p < .001). For easy-to-visualize symptoms of heart attack/stroke, indexical icons received the highest ratings (all p < .001). For easy-to-visualize harm of reproductive organ damage, the iconic image did best (all p < .001). Icon type often had a larger impact among participants with higher health literacy. Symbolic icons may be most effective for health effects not easily visualized. Iconic or indexical icons may be more effective for health effects attributable to specific body parts or symptoms.

Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning.

In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.

Communicating Tobacco Product Information to the Public.

The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (TCA) requires tobacco companies to disclose information about the harmful chemicals in their products to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The law requires the FDA, in turn, to communicate this information to the public "in a format that is understandable and not misleading to a lay person." But how should the FDA comply with this requirement? What does it mean for information about complex chemicals to be "understandable and not misleading to a lay person"? These questions are not easy ones to answer. Disclosures about the amount of harmful chemicals (constituents) in different tobacco products may help to inform consumers, but may also conversely prompt consumers to reach incorrect or unsupported conclusions about products' relative health risks. This paper first analyzes the FDA's legal obligation to publish tobacco constituent information so that it is "understandable and not misleading to a layperson." Second, it discusses how that legal analysis has guided scientific research examining how members of the public interpret messages regarding tobacco constituents. Lastly, this paper concludes with policy recommendations for the FDA as it considers how to comply with the law's constituent disclosure requirement while still furthering its overall objective of promoting public health.