Epidemic disease risks and implications for Veterinary Services.

Growth in the livestock sector is associated with heightened risk for epidemic diseases. The increasing spillover of new diseases from wildlife is being driven by wide-scale anthropogenic changes allowing for more frequent and closer wildlife-human and wildlife-livestock contacts. An increasing number of epidemics in livestock are associated with rapid transition of livestock systems from extensive to intensive, and local to global movement of livestock and their products through value chain networks with weak biosecurity. Major livestock epidemics in the past two decades have had substantial economic impacts, and the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the devastating socio-economic consequences that spillovers can have when not identified and controlled early in the process of emergence. This highlights the importance of Veterinary Services to integrated, whole-of-society efforts to control infectious diseases in animals. Emphasis within Veterinary Services must be placed on prevention and preparedness. The authors suggest four areas for continued improvement in Veterinary Services to meet this challenge. These are a) continued development of staff capacity for risk assessment and value chain analysis, together with improved policies and communication, b) appropriate adaptation of approaches to prevention and control in resource-poor settings, c) improved multi-sectoral and transboundary cooperation, which enables the sharing of resources and expertise, and d) systematic approaches that enable Veterinary Services to influence decisionmaking for trade, markets, business, public health, and livelihood development at the national and regional levels.

La croissance du secteur de l'élevage est associée à un risque accru de maladies épidémiques. Les changements anthropiques à grande échelle sont à l'origine du nombre croissant de maladies émergentes atteignant de nouvelles espèces réceptives (spillover) à partir de réservoirs sauvages, à la faveur de contacts plus fréquents et plus rapprochés entre la faune sauvage et les humains, d'une part, et entre la faune sauvage et les animaux domestiques, d'autre part. On considère qu'un nombre croissant d'épidémies affectant le bétail sont dues à la transition rapide des systèmes d'élevage extensif vers des systèmes intensifs, et aux mouvements du bétail et des produits de l'élevage de l'échelle locale à l'échelle mondiale par le biais de réseaux de chaînes de valeur dotés d'un faible niveau de biosécurité. Au cours des deux dernières décennies, d'importantes épidémies affectant le bétail ont eu un impact économique considérable ; en outre, la pandémie de COVID-19 a mis en évidence les conséquences socio-économiques dévastatrices des atteintes de nouvelles espèces réceptives par des agents pathogènes, lorsque ces maladies ne sont pas détectées et maîtrisées dès le processus d'émergence. Cela souligne l'importance cruciale des Services vétérinaires dans les efforts de lutte contre les maladies infectieuses chez les animaux, qui doivent être intégrés et mobiliser la société entière. Les Services vétérinaires doivent mettre un accent particulier sur la prévention et la préparation. Les auteurs proposent quatre aspects d'amélioration continue pour que les Services vétérinaires puissent relever ce défi. Il s'agit : a) du développement permanent des compétences des personnels vétérinaires en matière d'évaluation du risque et d'analyse des chaînes de valeur, et leur articulation avec de meilleures politiques et une communication plus performante ; b) une adaptation adéquate des méthodes de prévention et de contrôle dans les configurations faiblement dotées en ressources ; c) une meilleure coopération multisectorielle et transfrontalière afin de partager les ressources et les compétences ; d) des dispositifs systémiques permettant aux Services vétérinaires d'influencer les prises de décision en matière d'échanges internationaux, de marchés, de commerce, de santé publique et de développement des moyens de subsistance, à l'échelle nationale et régionale.

El crecimiento del sector pecuario está condicionado por la existencia de un mayor riesgo de enfermedades epidémicas. La creciente diseminación de nuevas enfermedades a partir de animales silvestres es consecuencia de transformaciones antrópicas a gran escala que posibilitan un contacto más frecuente y estrecho de la fauna silvestre con el ser humano y el ganado. Cada vez son más las epidemias del ganado que tienen que ver con la rápida transición de los sistemas pecuarios de un régimen de producción extensiva a otro de producción intensiva y con el paso de la dimensión local a la mundial de la circulación de animales y sus derivados a través de redes de cadenas de valor que presentan una endeble seguridad biológica. En los últimos dos decenios ha habido grandes epidemias que han afectado al ganado y tenido importantes consecuencias económicas. La pandemia de COVID-19 es un elocuente ejemplo de los devastadores efectos socioeconómicos que puede tener la extensión de un patógeno cuando no se detecta y controla en un momento lo bastante precoz del proceso de emergencia. Ello pone de relieve la importancia que revisten los Servicios Veterinarios para que toda la sociedad pueda reaccionar de forma integrada a la hora de combatir las enfermedades infecciosas de los animales. Dentro de los Servicios Veterinarios, conviene poner el acento en la prevención y la preparación. Para lograr este objetivo los autores señalan cuatro ámbitos que exigen una constante mejora: a) el desarrollo continuo de la capacidad del personal en materia de determinación de riesgos y análisis de cadenas de valor, ligado a la mejora de las políticas y la comunicación; b) la adecuada adaptación de los métodos de prevención y control en contextos de escasos recursos; c) una mejor cooperación multisectorial y transfronteriza, que permita poner en común recursos y competencias técnicas; y d) enfoques sistemáticos que hagan posible que los Servicios Veterinarios influyan en los procesos decisorios relativos al desarrollo del comercio, los mercados, las empresas, la salud pública y los medios de sustento a escala tanto nacional como regional.

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses.

BACKGROUND: Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it. RESULTS: Poultry trading practices varied according to the size of the LBMs and to the type of poultry traded. Industrial broiler chickens, the most commonly traded poultry, were generally sold in LBMs close to their production areas, whereas ducks and backyard chickens were moved over longer distances, and their transport involved several intermediates. The poultry trading network composed of 445 nodes (73.2% were LBMs) was highly connected and disassortative. However, the removal of only 5.6% of the nodes (25 LBMs with the highest betweenness scores), reduced the network's connectedness, and the maximum size of output and input domains by more than 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Poultry types need to be discriminated in order to understand the way in which poultry trading networks are shaped, and the level of risk of disease spread that these networks may promote. Knowledge of the network structure could be used to target control and surveillance interventions to a small number of LBMs.

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel.

Various foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non-FMD-free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD-free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10-7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst-case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10-5 , which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.

Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations.

In this globalized world, the spread of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases has become one of the most important threats to animal production and public health. This systematic review analyses conventional and novel early detection methods applied to surveillance. In all, 125 scientific documents were considered for this study. Exotic (n = 49) and re-emerging (n = 27) diseases constituted the most frequently represented health threats. In addition, the majority of studies were related to zoonoses (n = 66). The approaches found in the review could be divided in surveillance modalities, both active (n = 23) and passive (n = 5); and tools and methodologies that support surveillance activities (n = 57). Combinations of surveillance modalities and tools (n = 40) were also found. Risk-based approaches were very common (n = 60), especially in the papers describing tools and methodologies (n = 50). The main applications, benefits and limitations of each approach were extracted from the papers. This information will be very useful for informing the development of tools to facilitate the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies. Thus, the current literature review provides key information about the advantages, disadvantages, limitations and potential application of methodologies for the early detection of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases.

H9N2 avian influenza virus dispersal along Bangladeshi poultry trading networks.

Avian influenza virus subtype H9N2 is endemic in Bangladesh's poultry population. The subtype affects poultry production and poses a potential zoonotic risk. Insufficient understanding of how the poultry trading network shapes the dissemination of avian influenza viruses has hindered the design of targeted interventions to reduce their spread. Here, we use phylodynamic analyses of haemagglutinin sequences to investigate the spatial spread and dispersal patterns of H9N2 viruses in Bangladesh's poultry population, focusing on its two largest cities (Dhaka and Chattogram) and their poultry production and distribution networks. Our analyses suggest that H9N2 subtype avian influenza virus lineage movement occurs relatively less frequently between Bangladesh's two largest cities than within each city. H9N2 viruses detected in single markets are often more closely related to viruses from other markets in the same city than to each other, consistent with close epidemiological connectivity between markets. Our analyses also suggest that H9N2 viruses may spread more frequently between chickens of the three most commonly sold types (sunali-a cross-bred of Fayoumi hen and Rhode Island Red cock, deshi-local indigenous, and exotic broiler) in Dhaka than in Chattogram. Overall, this study improves our understanding of how Bangladesh's poultry trading system impacts avian influenza virus spread and should contribute to the design of tailored surveillance that accommodates local heterogeneity in virus dispersal patterns.

Prevalence of and risk factors for MRSA carriage in companion animals: a survey of dogs, cats and horses.

We investigated the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage in a convenience sample of purposely selected populations of dogs, cats and horses in the Greater London area. Swabs from carriage sites were pooled, enriched and processed by standard bacteriological methods. The presence of nuc and mecA was confirmed for MRSA. Risk factors were investigated among veterinary treatment group animals using exact logistic regression analysis. Twenty-six (1.53%) MRSA carriers were identified in the 1692 animals (15/704 dogs, 8/540 cats, 3/152 horses). Animals presenting for veterinary treatment more frequently carried MRSA than healthy animals (OR 7.27, 95% CI 2.18-24.31, P<0.001). Concurrent carriage of non-MRSA coagulase-positive staphylococci was associated with MRSA carriage (OR 0.088, 95% CI 0.016-0.31, P<0.001); none of the other 13 putative risk factors was significant. MRSA carriage was rare in the selected companion animal populations. The absence of typical risk factors indicates that companion animals act as contaminated vectors rather than as true reservoirs.

Herd contact structure based on shared use of water points and grazing points in the Highlands of Ethiopia.

The use of shared common water points (WPs) and grazing points (GPs) at two different levels of administrative aggregation (village and kebelle) in a region of the Highlands of Ethiopia was explored by means of a questionnaire survey and social network analysis. Despite GPs being more abundant than WPs (208 and 154, respectively), individual GPs provide more contact opportunities for animals. There was great variability in the contact structure of the selected villages within kebelles for both networks, with this variability being higher in the GP networks for each kebelle. Contrary to the commonly held view that WPs are critical for the potential transmission of infectious diseases, intervention at GPs in the Ethiopian Highlands may have greater impact on contacts and thereby opportunities for transmission of infectious diseases between flocks. Some villages appear naturally at much lower risk of introducing disease. These findings could help the design of surveillance and control activities for directly transmitted infectious diseases.

An assessment of the feasibility of a poultry tracing scheme for smallholders in Vietnam.

Tracing movements could assist the implementation of bio-containment measures during a disease outbreak. To evaluate the potential for implementing a tracing system for a poultry supply chain in northern Vietnam, a four-month longitudinal study was conducted to identify marketing practices associated with poultry traceability. Poultry sold in batches were traced between farms and markets, and their traceability was assessed upon market arrival. A total of 315 batches were released from the farms; 37% arrived at a market, from which 57.3% were 'traceable'. The results of the multivariable analysis showed that traceability was associated with farms operating through no more than two traders (Odds ratio [OR] = 5.97, 95% CI 1.15-30.92) and batches brought to the market on the day of purchase (OR = 4.05, 95% CI 1.23-13.27). No specific incentives were provided to farmers or traders. Results suggest that there is potential for implementing a poultry traceability scheme, although the tracing methodology should be refined.

Integration of participatory approaches into surveillance systems.

Animal health surveillance is essential for protecting public health, enhancing access to international markets for animals and their products, and improving animal health, production and welfare. It is of vital importance for protecting and improving the livelihoods of diverse groups of livestock keepers and stakeholders in livestock value chains. Surveillance systems consist of sets of complementary components which generate information to inform risk assessment, decision-making and policy formulation for both national programmes and international trade. Participatory approaches have the potential to add value to surveillance systems by enhancing their performance, especially their sensitivity and timeliness, and encouraging the inclusion of marginalised groups. This paper summarises key considerations in the assessment and design of animal health surveillance and discusses how participatory approaches can be integrated into comprehensive surveillance systems, leading to a more effective overall outcome for both domestic and international purposes.

Invited review: modeling within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in dairy cattle: a review.

Epidemiological models have been developed to test hypotheses on Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (Map) transmission in a herd, and to compare different paratuberculosis control strategies and alternatives for certification-and-surveillance schemes. The models are simplified representations of existing biological processes tailored to the questions they are intended to answer. Such models depend on available knowledge about the underlying processes, notably in relation to pathogen transmission. All decisions relating to integration of specific aspects of the herd structure and transmission mechanisms as well as modeling objective will influence model behavior and simulation results. This paper examines assumptions on pathogen transmission and risk mitigation represented in 8 epidemiological models of within-herd Map transmission in dairy cattle. We describe available models' structure and examine them in the context of current knowledge about host infection and pathogen transmission pathways. We investigate how population structure and herd management are modeled with regard to their influence on contact structure and pathogen transmission. We show that assumptions about routes of transmission and their contribution within a herd vary greatly among models. Gaps of knowledge that are pivotal to defining transmission equations and parameters, such as variation of susceptibility with age and variability of pattern of shedding, are identified. Quantitative estimates of this incomplete information should be targeted by future research. Existing models could be improved by considering indirect transmission via the environment taking account of Map survival and contact structure between animals in a herd, and by including calf-to-calf transmission, which has recently been proven as being important.

Non-ambulatory dogs with cervical intervertebral disc herniation: single versus multiple ventral slot decompression.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the proportion of non-ambulatory dogs with cervical intervertebral disc herniation (IVDH) in a private clinic and to compare signalment and outcome between those that underwent single or multiple ventral slot decompression (VSD). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: After screening 43,378 medical records (January 2010-September 2016), those of 185 dogs with non-ambulatory tetraparesis or tetraplegia along with cervical IVDH that had undergone single (123) or multiple (62) VSD were included in this study. Data on signalment, preoperative neurological status, location of affected intervertebral disc(s), time to ambulation and short-term outcome were compared between single and multiple VSD groups. RESULTS: The proportion of non-ambulatory dogs with IVDH was 35.3%. The prevalence of non-ambulation was higher in male dogs (0.56%) than in female dogs (0.26%; P < 0.001) and in neutered dogs than in unneutered dogs (0.51% and 0.27%, respectively, P < 0.001). After surgery, 96.2% of the dogs reached ambulatory status. Dogs with multiple IVDH were older than those with single IVDH. Sex, neutering status or size did not affect the outcome or ambulation status postsurgery. The Pekingese was the most commonly affected breed in both groups. There was no difference in the time to reach ambulation and the presence of neurological deficits after surgery between dogs that underwent single and multiple VSD. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, dogs undergoing multiple VSD had a good postoperative outcome, and their short-term functional recovery was equal to that of dogs undergoing single ventral slot compression.

Bone biomarkers and risk of fracture in two- and three-year-old Thoroughbreds.

The aim of this study was to determine whether bone biomarkers (osteocalcin, PICP, ICTP and CTX-I) could be used to identify 2- and 3-year-olds at increased risk of fracture in the subsequent flat racing season. It was concluded that these bone biomarkers cannot be used to identify 2- and 3-year-olds that sustain a fracture. Whether bone biomarkers have better predictive value in older horses or when measured serially in the same animal remains to be determined.

Effect of left-sided valvular regurgitation on mortality and causes of death among a population of middle-aged and older horses.

The effect of left-sided valvular regurgitation (LSVR) on the mortality of middle-aged and older horses was investigated in a prospective cohort study involving 19 yards and 1153 horses. The horses were examined to determine whether they had a cardiac murmur and its type, and their age, sex, breed type and occupation were recorded. They were followed up at intervals of two years by postal questionnaire, and after four years information on 773 horses was available. There was no significant difference in the mortality of the horses with and without LSVR, but small horses had a significantly higher risk of having LSVR than small ponies (odds ratio [OR] 2.33), and older horses were slightly more likely to have LSVR than young horses (OR 1.07). Twenty-nine per cent of the deaths reported by the owners were due to orthopaedic problems, 23.3 per cent to gastrointestinal problems, and only 7.9 per cent to cardiovascular problems. Orthopaedic problems were the main cause of death in the horses, and gastrointestinal problems were the main cause of death in the ponies.

Factors affecting the success of rehoming dogs in the UK during 2005.

In the UK, welfare organisations care for several thousand dogs each year. The successful rehoming of these dogs is a difficult process resulting in some of them being returned to rehoming centres. There have been very few studies examining the underlying mechanisms in the UK. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine those factors which affect the success of rehoming dogs. A prospective cohort study was conducted using a sample of 5750 dogs rehomed by Dogs Trust, a UK based dog welfare charity, during 2005. Dogs were followed up for a period of 6 months after adoption to determine if these dogs were still in their placement home. There was a 78% response rate to the follow-up postal questionnaires sent to the new owners, giving information on 4500 owners. Fourteen percent of adoptions failed. The results showed that behavioural problems are an important factor in the success of adoption such that if dogs had shown aggression towards people and the owners had not sought advice, they had 11.1 times the odds (95% CI: 6.6, 18.8) of being returned compared to those dogs without behavioural problems. Attending training classes significantly decreased the chance that the adoption would be unsuccessful (OR 0.3, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.4). It was shown that those owners who found that the effort and work involved in looking after their dog to be more than they had expected, had 9.9 (95% CI: 4.1, 24.6) times the odds of returning their dog than those who found the effort required to be less than they had expected. The results of this study show that there are many factors involved in a successful adoption and it is important that the new owners are informed of what to expect are encouraged to attend training classes and are prepared to work at any behavioural problems that their dog may have.

Days lost from training by two- and three-year-old Thoroughbred horses: a survey of seven UK training yards.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: The first major epidemiological study of injury incidence in the UK flat racing Thoroughbred (TB), published in 1985, found lameness to be the single largest reason for days when horses failed to train. It was considered advisable to ascertain if progress has been made in reducing the problem of musculoskeletal injuries in the intervening period. OBJECTIVE: To quantify injury incidence and days lost from training by 2- and 3-year-old TBs in UK training yards during 2002 and 2003. METHODS: One-hundred-and-eighty-two yearling TBs were recruited at the end of 2001 and daily training and injury records maintained over the following 2 training and racing seasons. Days were defined as lost from training when a horse failed to train at a slow canter speed or faster, and could be assigned to one of 4 categories: lameness, medical, traumatic and unknown. The incidence and number of days lost due to specific injuries and medical conditions was determined by further subdividing the lameness and medical categories. RESULTS: The study period provided a total of 52,601 2-year-old and 29,369 3-year-old days available for training, with 2-year-olds failing to train on a significantly greater proportion of days available than 3-year-olds. Lameness was the most important condition causing horses to miss training, with stress fractures being the most important cause of lameness. Medical conditions were a relatively minor cause of days lost from training, accounting for approximately 5% of untrained days in the 2 age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In UK flat racehorses there has been little change in the proportion of days lost from training due to lameness over the last 20 years. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: This study highlights the need for further efforts to reduce the problem of lameness in the racing TB.

Calf mortality as a welfare indicator on British cattle farms.

The objective of this study was to test calf mortality as an indicator of on-farm welfare and its use for welfare targeted surveillance. Calf mortality data were retrieved for three UK counties to estimate calf mortality rates at holding and county level. A selection criterion based on upper quartiles of calf mortality for the county of concern was defined. Its predictive ability was tested in a field study. The death risk of calves less than 6 months of age in 2002 was 1.76% in Inverness, 5.83% in Cheshire and 4.8% in Norfolk. Fifty-two welfare inspections matched by parish were conducted between October 2004 and January 2005. The positive predictive value was 26.92% and the negative predictive value was 65.38%. The addition of herd type, county and membership to an assurance scheme improved the predictive value. This study shows that calf mortality can be the starting point to design targeted welfare inspections in countries with centralized animal data recording systems.

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation.

Mortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7-2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5-8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8-9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.

The applicability of animal health surveillance systems for post-market monitoring of potential adverse effects of genetically modified (GM) feed.

A facultative post market monitoring of potential health impacts of genetically modified (GM) feedstuffs on livestock consuming these feeds after pre-market risk assessment is under ongoing consideration. Within the IPAFEED database, scientific studies on health effects beyond performance in livestock and the results of a systematic search for evidence of outcome effects due to GM feed are consolidated. These outcomes were reviewed and checked for consistency in order to identify plausible syndromes suitable for conducting surveillance. The 24 selected studies showed no consistent changes in any health parameter. There were no repeated studies in any species by GM crop type and animal species. As such, there is insufficient evidence to inform the design of surveillance systems for detecting known adverse effects. Animal health surveillance systems have been proposed for the post market monitoring of potential adverse effects in animals. Such systems were evaluated for their applicability to the detection of hypothetical adverse effects and their strengths and weaknesses to detect syndromes of concern are presented. For known adverse effects, applied controlled post-market studies may yield conclusive and high-quality evidence. For detecting unknown adverse effects, the use of existing surveillance systems may still be of interest. A simulation tool developed within the project can be adapted and applied to existing surveillance systems to explore their applicability to the detection of potential adverse effects of GM feed.