Low applicability of the ''Six-and-twelve score" in hepatocellular carcinoma treated with Drug-Eluting Beads Transarterial Chemoembolization.

OBJECTIVE: The effectiveness of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends on the selection of suitable patients. The ''Six-and-twelve score" distinguishes three groups of ideal patients with different overall survival, based on the sum of the number and size of tumors. This may impact on clinical practice and trial design. The aim of this study was to assess the reproducibility and prognostic value of the model in western patients treated with Drug-Eluting Beads (DEB)-TACE. METHODS: Observational, retrospective, unicentric study with consecutive compensated patients treated with DEB-TACE from October 2008 to October 2017. Exclusion criteria were Child-Pugh ≥ 8 and DEB-TACE used as a bridge to liver transplantation. RESULTS: 225 HCC consecutive patients were included; BCLC-0/A n=131 (single nodules > 5, n=29) and BCLC-B n=94. The median overall survival (OS) was 27 months (95% CI 23.8-30.2). OS was different between BCLC-0/A vs BCLC-B: 30 vs 24 months (p= 0.03), Child-Pugh A5 vs A6-B7: 30 vs 27 months (p= 0.003). ''Six-and-twelve score" groups discriminated OS: group 1, n=123, 32 months (95% CI 27.5-63.5), group 2, n=101, 24 months (95% CI 19.6-28.4) and group 3, n=1, 27 months (p=0.024). When comparing the three scores, the ''Six-and-twelve score" showed the best discrimination power: C-index 0.603, Akaike's information criterion (AIC) 1.642, likelihood ratio test (LRT) 16.21. CONCLUSION: The ''Six-and-twelve score" is a prognostic tool for patients with HCC treated with DEB-TACE. However, few patients were included in the third group (score >12) and no differences were observed with BCLC, therefore its applicability is limited. .

Investigating regional excess mortality during 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in selected Latin American countries.

In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.