Multi-polygenic score prediction of mathematics, reading, and language abilities independent of general cognitive ability.

Specific cognitive abilities (SCA) correlate genetically about 0.50, which underpins general cognitive ability (g), but it also means that there is considerable genetic specificity. If g is not controlled, then genomic prediction of specific cognitive abilities is not truly specific because they are all perfused with g. Here, we investigated the heritability of mathematics, reading, and language ability independent of g (SCA.g) using twins and DNA, and the extent to which multiple genome-wide polygenic scores (multi-PGS) can jointly predict these SCA.g as compared to SCA uncorrected for g. We created SCA and SCA.g composites from a battery of 14 cognitive tests administered at age 12 to 5,000 twin pairs in the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS). Univariate twin analyses yielded an average heritability estimate of 40% for SCA.g, compared to 53% for uncorrected SCA. Using genome-wide SNP genotypes, average SNP-based heritabilities were 26% for SCA.g and 35% for SCA. We then created multi-PGS from at least 50 PGS to predict each SCA and SCA.g using elastic net penalised regression models. Multi-PGS predicted 4.4% of the variance of SCA.g on average, compared to 11.1% for SCA uncorrected for g. The twin, SNP and PGS heritability estimates for SCA.g provide further evidence that the heritabilities of SCA are not merely a reflection of g. Although the relative reduction in heritability from SCA to SCA.g was greater for PGS heritability than for twin or SNP heritability, this decrease is likely due to the paucity of PGS for SCA. We hope that these results encourage researchers to conduct genome-wide association studies of SCA, and especially SCA.g, that can be used to predict PGS profiles of SCA strengths and weaknesses independent of g.

Gene-environment correlation: the role of family environment in academic development.

Academic achievement is partly heritable and highly polygenic. However, genetic effects on academic achievement are not independent of environmental processes. We investigated whether aspects of the family environment mediated genetic effects on academic achievement across development. Our sample included 5151 children who participated in the Twins Early Development Study, as well as their parents and teachers. Data on academic achievement and family environments (parenting, home environments, and geocoded indices of neighbourhood characteristics) were available at ages 7, 9, 12 and 16. We computed educational attainment polygenic scores (PGS) and further separated genetic effects into cognitive and noncognitive PGS. Three core findings emerged. First, aspects of the family environment, but not the wider neighbourhood context, consistently mediated the PGS effects on achievement across development-accounting for up to 34.3% of the total effect. Family characteristics mattered beyond socio-economic status. Second, family environments were more robustly linked to noncognitive PGS effects on academic achievement than cognitive PGS effects. Third, when we investigated whether environmental mediation effects could also be observed when considering differences between siblings, adjusting for family fixed effects, we found that environmental mediation was nearly exclusively observed between families. This is consistent with the proposition that family environmental contexts contribute to academic development via passive gene-environment correlation processes or genetic nurture. Our results show how parents tend to shape environments that foster their children's academic development partly based on their own genetic disposition, particularly towards noncognitive skills, rather than responding to each child's genetic disposition.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of dizygotic twinning illuminates genetic regulation of female fecundity.

STUDY QUESTION: Which genetic factors regulate female propensity for giving birth to spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified four new loci, GNRH1, FSHR, ZFPM1, and IPO8, in addition to previously identified loci, FSHB and SMAD3. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The propensity to give birth to DZ twins runs in families. Earlier, we reported that FSHB and SMAD3 as associated with DZ twinning and female fertility measures. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of mothers of spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins (8265 cases, 264 567 controls) and of independent DZ twin offspring (26 252 cases, 417 433 controls). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Over 700 000 mothers of DZ twins, twin individuals and singletons from large cohorts in Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and the USA were carefully screened to exclude twins born after use of ARTs. Genetic association analyses by cohort were followed by meta-analysis, phenome wide association studies (PheWAS), in silico and in vivo annotations, and Zebrafish functional validation. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: This study enlarges the sample size considerably from previous efforts, finding four genome-wide significant loci, including two novel signals and a further two novel genes that are implicated by gene level enrichment analyses. The novel loci, GNRH1 and FSHR, have well-established roles in female reproduction whereas ZFPM1 and IPO8 have not previously been implicated in female fertility. We found significant genetic correlations with multiple aspects of female reproduction and body size as well as evidence for significant selection against DZ twinning during human evolution. The 26 top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from our GWAMA in European-origin participants weakly predicted the crude twinning rates in 47 non-European populations (r = 0.23 between risk score and population prevalence, s.e. 0.11, 1-tail P = 0.058) indicating that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are needed in African and Asian populations to explore the causes of their respectively high and low DZ twinning rates. In vivo functional tests in zebrafish for IPO8 validated its essential role in female, but not male, fertility. In most regions, risk SNPs linked to known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). Top SNPs were associated with in vivo reproductive hormone levels with the top pathways including hormone ligand binding receptors and the ovulation cycle. LARGE SCALE DATA: The full DZT GWAS summary statistics will made available after publication through the GWAS catalog (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study only included European ancestry cohorts. Inclusion of data from Africa (with the highest twining rate) and Asia (with the lowest rate) would illuminate further the biology of twinning and female fertility. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: About one in 40 babies born in the world is a twin and there is much speculation on why twinning runs in families. We hope our results will inform investigations of ovarian response in new and existing ARTs and the causes of female infertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Support for the Netherlands Twin Register came from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants, 904-61-193, 480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 911-09-032, Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI.NL, 184.021.007), Royal Netherlands Academy of Science Professor Award (PAH/6635) to DIB, European Research Council (ERC-230374), Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1) and the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health and Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951. The QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR) study was supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 443036, 442915, 442981, 496610, 496739, 552485, 552498, 1050208, 1075175). L.Y. is funded by Australian Research Council (Grant number DE200100425). The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) was supported in part by USPHS Grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA09367 and AA11886) and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA05147, DA13240, and DA024417). The Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS) was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL043851 and HL080467) and the National Cancer Institute (CA047988 and UM1CA182913), with support for genotyping provided by Amgen. Data collection in the Finnish Twin Registry has been supported by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, the Broad Institute, ENGAGE-European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology, FP7-HEALTH-F4-2007, grant agreement number 201413, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (grants AA-12502, AA-00145, AA-09203, AA15416, and K02AA018755) and the Academy of Finland (grants 100499, 205585, 118555, 141054, 264146, 308248, 312073 and 336823 to J. Kaprio). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. For NESDA, funding was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (Geestkracht program grant 10000-1002), the Center for Medical Systems Biology (CSMB, NVVO Genomics), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), VU University's Institutes for Health and Care Research (EMGO+) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, University Medical Center Groningen, Leiden University Medical Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH, ROI D0042157-01A, MH081802, Grand Opportunity grants 1 RC2 Ml-1089951 and IRC2 MH089995). Part of the genotyping and analyses were funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health. Computing was supported by BiG Grid, the Dutch e-Science Grid, which is financially supported by NWO. Work in the Del Bene lab was supported by the Programme Investissements d'Avenir IHU FOReSIGHT (ANR-18-IAHU-01). C.R. was supported by an EU Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2014 #661527). H.S. and K.S. are employees of deCODE Genetics/Amgen. The other authors declare no competing financial interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The new genetics of intelligence.

Intelligence - the ability to learn, reason and solve problems - is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.

Evaluation of polygenic prediction methodology within a reference-standardized framework.

The predictive utility of polygenic scores is increasing, and many polygenic scoring methods are available, but it is unclear which method performs best. This study evaluates the predictive utility of polygenic scoring methods within a reference-standardized framework, which uses a common set of variants and reference-based estimates of linkage disequilibrium and allele frequencies to construct scores. Eight polygenic score methods were tested: p-value thresholding and clumping (pT+clump), SBLUP, lassosum, LDpred1, LDpred2, PRScs, DBSLMM and SBayesR, evaluating their performance to predict outcomes in UK Biobank and the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS). Strategies to identify optimal p-value thresholds and shrinkage parameters were compared, including 10-fold cross validation, pseudovalidation and infinitesimal models (with no validation sample), and multi-polygenic score elastic net models. LDpred2, lassosum and PRScs performed strongly using 10-fold cross-validation to identify the most predictive p-value threshold or shrinkage parameter, giving a relative improvement of 16-18% over pT+clump in the correlation between observed and predicted outcome values. Using pseudovalidation, the best methods were PRScs, DBSLMM and SBayesR. PRScs pseudovalidation was only 3% worse than the best polygenic score identified by 10-fold cross validation. Elastic net models containing polygenic scores based on a range of parameters consistently improved prediction over any single polygenic score. Within a reference-standardized framework, the best polygenic prediction was achieved using LDpred2, lassosum and PRScs, modeling multiple polygenic scores derived using multiple parameters. This study will help researchers performing polygenic score studies to select the most powerful and predictive analysis methods.

Genetic meta-analysis of twin birth weight shows high genetic correlation with singleton birth weight.

Birth weight (BW) is an important predictor of newborn survival and health and has associations with many adult health outcomes, including cardiometabolic disorders, autoimmune diseases and mental health. On average, twins have a lower BW than singletons as a result of a different pattern of fetal growth and shorter gestational duration. Therefore, investigations into the genetics of BW often exclude data from twins, leading to a reduction in sample size and remaining ambiguities concerning the genetic contribution to BW in twins. In this study, we carried out a genome-wide association meta-analysis of BW in 42 212 twin individuals and found a positive correlation of beta values (Pearson's r = 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.77) with 150 previously reported genome-wide significant variants for singleton BW. We identified strong positive genetic correlations between BW in twins and numerous anthropometric traits, most notably with BW in singletons (genetic correlation [rg] = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.66-1.18). Genetic correlations of BW in twins with a series of health-related traits closely resembled those previously observed for BW in singletons. Polygenic scores constructed from a genome-wide association study on BW in the UK Biobank demonstrated strong predictive power in a target sample of Dutch twins and singletons. Together, our results indicate that a similar genetic architecture underlies BW in twins and singletons and that future genome-wide studies might benefit from including data from large twin registers.

Celebrating a Century of Research in Behavioral Genetics.

A century after the first twin and adoption studies of behavior in the 1920s, this review looks back on the journey and celebrates milestones in behavioral genetic research. After a whistle-stop tour of early quantitative genetic research and the parallel journey of molecular genetics, the travelogue focuses on the last fifty years. Just as quantitative genetic discoveries were beginning to slow down in the 1990s, molecular genetics made it possible to assess DNA variation directly. From a rocky start with candidate gene association research, by 2005 the technological advance of DNA microarrays enabled genome-wide association studies, which have successfully identified some of the DNA variants that contribute to the ubiquitous heritability of behavioral traits. The ability to aggregate the effects of thousands of DNA variants in polygenic scores has created a DNA revolution in the behavioral sciences by making it possible to use DNA to predict individual differences in behavior from early in life.

Polygenic scores: prediction versus explanation.

During the past decade, polygenic scores have become a fast-growing area of research in the behavioural sciences. The ability to directly assess people's genetic propensities has transformed research by making it possible to add genetic predictors of traits to any study. The value of polygenic scores in the behavioural sciences rests on using inherited DNA differences to predict, from birth, common disorders and complex traits in unrelated individuals in the population. This predictive power of polygenic scores does not require knowing anything about the processes that lie between genes and behaviour. It also does not mandate disentangling the extent to which the prediction is due to assortative mating, genotype-environment correlation, or even population stratification. Although bottom-up explanation from genes to brain to behaviour will remain the long-term goal of the behavioural sciences, prediction is also a worthy achievement because it has immediate practical utility for identifying individuals at risk and is the necessary first step towards explanation. A high priority for research must be to increase the predictive power of polygenic scores to be able to use them as an early warning system to prevent problems.

Polygenic risk for mental disorder reveals distinct association profiles across social behaviour in the general population.

Many mental health conditions present a spectrum of social difficulties that overlaps with social behaviour in the general population including shared but little characterised genetic links. Here, we systematically investigate heterogeneity in shared genetic liabilities with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorders (ASD), bipolar disorder (BP), major depression (MD) and schizophrenia across a spectrum of different social symptoms. Longitudinally assessed low-prosociality and peer-problem scores in two UK population-based cohorts (4-17 years; parent- and teacher-reports; Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children(ALSPAC): N ≤ 6,174; Twins Early Development Study(TEDS): N ≤ 7,112) were regressed on polygenic risk scores for disorder, as informed by genome-wide summary statistics from large consortia, using negative binomial regression models. Across ALSPAC and TEDS, we replicated univariate polygenic associations between social behaviour and risk for ADHD, MD and schizophrenia. Modelling variation in univariate genetic effects jointly using random-effect meta-regression revealed evidence for polygenic links between social behaviour and ADHD, ASD, MD, and schizophrenia risk, but not BP. Differences in age, reporter and social trait captured 45-88% in univariate effect variation. Cross-disorder adjusted analyses demonstrated that age-related heterogeneity in univariate effects is shared across mental health conditions, while reporter- and social trait-specific heterogeneity captures disorder-specific profiles. In particular, ADHD, MD, and ASD polygenic risk were more strongly linked to peer problems than low prosociality, while schizophrenia was associated with low prosociality only. The identified association profiles suggest differences in the social genetic architecture across mental disorders when investigating polygenic overlap with population-based social symptoms spanning 13 years of child and adolescent development.

Explaining the influence of non-shared environment (NSE) on symptoms of behaviour problems from preschool to adulthood: mind the missing NSE gap.

BACKGROUND: Individual differences in symptoms of behaviour problems in childhood and adolescence are not primarily due to nature or nurture - another substantial source of variance is non-shared environment (NSE). However, few specific environmental factors have been found to account for these NSE estimates. This creates a 'missing NSE' gap analogous to the 'missing heritability' gap, which refers to the shortfall in identifying DNA differences responsible for heritability. We assessed the extent to which variance in behaviour problem symptoms during the first two decades of life can be accounted for by measured NSE effects after controlling for genetics and shared environment. METHODS: The sample included 4,039 pairs of twins in the Twins Early Development Study whose environments and symptoms of behaviour problems were assessed in preschool, childhood, adolescence and early adulthood via parent, teacher and self-reports. Twin-specific environments were assessed via parent-reports, including early life adversity, parental feelings, parental discipline and classroom environment. Multivariate longitudinal twin model-fitting was employed to estimate the variance in behaviour problem symptoms at each age that could be predicted by environmental measures at the previous age. RESULTS: On average across childhood, adolescence and adulthood, parent-rated NSE composite measures accounted for 3.4% of the reliable NSE variance (1.0% of the total variance) in parent-rated, symptoms of behaviour problems, 0.5% (0.1%) in teacher-rated symptoms and 0.9% (0.5%) in self-rated symptoms after controlling for genetics, shared environment and error of measurement. Cumulatively across development, our parent-rated NSE measures in preschool, childhood and adolescence predicted 4.7% of the NSE variance (2.0% of the total variance) in parent-rated and 0.3% (0.2%) in self-rated behaviour problem symptoms in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: The missing NSE gap between variance explained by measured environments and total NSE variance is large. Home and classroom environments are more likely to influence behaviour problem symptoms via genetics than via NSE.

Multivariable G-E interplay in the prediction of educational achievement.

Polygenic scores are increasingly powerful predictors of educational achievement. It is unclear, however, how sets of polygenic scores, which partly capture environmental effects, perform jointly with sets of environmental measures, which are themselves heritable, in prediction models of educational achievement. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigate gene-environment correlation (rGE) and interaction (GxE) in the joint analysis of multiple genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) and multiple environmental measures as they predict tested educational achievement (EA). We predict EA in a representative sample of 7,026 16-year-olds, with 20 GPS for psychiatric, cognitive and anthropometric traits, and 13 environments (including life events, home environment, and SES) measured earlier in life. Environmental and GPS predictors were modelled, separately and jointly, in penalized regression models with out-of-sample comparisons of prediction accuracy, considering the implications that their interplay had on model performance. Jointly modelling multiple GPS and environmental factors significantly improved prediction of EA, with cognitive-related GPS adding unique independent information beyond SES, home environment and life events. We found evidence for rGE underlying variation in EA (rGE = .38; 95% CIs = .30, .45). We estimated that 40% (95% CIs = 31%, 50%) of the polygenic scores effects on EA were mediated by environmental effects, and in turn that 18% (95% CIs = 12%, 25%) of environmental effects were accounted for by the polygenic model, indicating genetic confounding. Lastly, we did not find evidence that GxE effects significantly contributed to multivariable prediction. Our multivariable polygenic and environmental prediction model suggests widespread rGE and unsystematic GxE contributions to EA in adolescence.

Multivariate analyses of molecular genetic associations between childhood psychopathology and adult mood disorders and related traits.

Ubiquitous associations have been detected between different types of childhood psychopathology and polygenic risk scores based on adult psychiatric disorders and related adult outcomes, indicating that genetic factors partly explain the association between childhood psychopathology and adult outcomes. However, these analyses in general do not take into account the correlations between the adult trait and disorder polygenic risk scores. This study aimed to further clarify the influence of genetic factors on associations between childhood psychopathology and adult outcomes by accounting for these correlations. Using a multivariate multivariable regression, we analyzed associations of childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), internalizing, and social problems, with polygenic scores (PGS) of adult disorders and traits including major depression, bipolar disorder, subjective well-being, neuroticism, insomnia, educational attainment, and body mass index (BMI), derived for 20,539 children aged 8.5-10.5 years. After correcting for correlations between the adult phenotypes, major depression PGS were associated with all three childhood traits, that is, ADHD, internalizing, and social problems. In addition, BMI PGS were associated with ADHD symptoms and social problems, while neuroticism PGS were only associated with internalizing problems and educational attainment PGS were only associated with ADHD symptoms. PGS of bipolar disorder, subjective well-being, and insomnia were not associated with any childhood traits. Our findings suggest that associations between childhood psychopathology and adult traits like insomnia and subjective well-being may be primarily driven by genetic factors that influence adult major depression. Additionally, specific childhood phenotypes are genetically associated with educational attainment, BMI and neuroticism.

Comparing Within- and Between-Family Polygenic Score Prediction.

Polygenic scores are a popular tool for prediction of complex traits. However, prediction estimates in samples of unrelated participants can include effects of population stratification, assortative mating, and environmentally mediated parental genetic effects, a form of genotype-environment correlation (rGE). Comparing genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) predictions in unrelated individuals with predictions between siblings in a within-family design is a powerful approach to identify these different sources of prediction. Here, we compared within- to between-family GPS predictions of eight outcomes (anthropometric, cognitive, personality, and health) for eight corresponding GPSs. The outcomes were assessed in up to 2,366 dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs from the Twins Early Development Study from age 12 to age 21. To account for family clustering, we used mixed-effects modeling, simultaneously estimating within- and between-family effects for target- and cross-trait GPS prediction of the outcomes. There were three main findings: (1) DZ twin GPS differences predicted DZ differences in height, BMI, intelligence, educational achievement, and ADHD symptoms; (2) target and cross-trait analyses indicated that GPS prediction estimates for cognitive traits (intelligence and educational achievement) were on average 60% greater between families than within families, but this was not the case for non-cognitive traits; and (3) much of this within- and between-family difference for cognitive traits disappeared after controlling for family socio-economic status (SES), suggesting that SES is a major source of between-family prediction through rGE mechanisms. These results provide insights into the patterns by which rGE contributes to GPS prediction, while ruling out confounding due to population stratification and assortative mating.

Changing genetic architecture of body mass index from infancy to early adulthood: an individual based pooled analysis of 25 twin cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) shows strong continuity over childhood and adolescence and high childhood BMI is the strongest predictor of adult obesity. Genetic factors strongly contribute to this continuity, but it is still poorly known how their contribution changes over childhood and adolescence. Thus, we used the genetic twin design to estimate the genetic correlations of BMI from infancy to adulthood and compared them to the genetic correlations of height. METHODS: We pooled individual level data from 25 longitudinal twin cohorts including 38,530 complete twin pairs and having 283,766 longitudinal height and weight measures. The data were analyzed using Cholesky decomposition offering genetic and environmental correlations of BMI and height between all age combinations from 1 to 19 years of age. RESULTS: The genetic correlations of BMI and height were stronger than the trait correlations. For BMI, we found that genetic correlations decreased as the age between the assessments increased, a trend that was especially visible from early to middle childhood. In contrast, for height, the genetic correlations were strong between all ages. Age-to-age correlations between environmental factors shared by co-twins were found for BMI in early childhood but disappeared altogether by middle childhood. For height, shared environmental correlations persisted from infancy to adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the genes affecting BMI change over childhood and adolescence leading to decreasing age-to-age genetic correlations. This change is especially visible from early to middle childhood indicating that new genetic factors start to affect BMI in middle childhood. Identifying mediating pathways of these genetic factors can open possibilities for interventions, especially for those children with high genetic predisposition to adult obesity.

Predicting Alcohol Use From Genome-Wide Polygenic Scores, Environmental Factors, and Their Interactions in Young Adulthood.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol use during emerging adulthood is associated with adverse life outcomes, but its risk factors are not well known. Here, we predicted alcohol use in 3153 young adults aged 22 years from a) genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) based on genome-wide association studies for the target phenotypes number of drinks per week and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test scores, b) 30 environmental factors, and c) their interactions (i.e., G × E effects). METHODS: Data were collected from 1994 to 2018 as a part of the UK Twins Early Development Study. RESULTS: GPS accounted for up to 1.9% of the variance in alcohol use (i.e., Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score), whereas the 30 measures of environmental factors together accounted for 21.1%. The 30 GPS by environment interactions did not explain any additional variance, and none of the interaction terms exceeded the significance threshold after correcting for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: GPS and some environmental factors significantly predicted alcohol use in young adulthood, but we observed no GPS by environment interactions in our study.

Pathfinder: a gamified measure to integrate general cognitive ability into the biological, medical, and behavioural sciences.

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have uncovered DNA variants associated with individual differences in general cognitive ability (g), but these are far from capturing heritability estimates obtained from twin studies. A major barrier to finding more of this 'missing heritability' is assessment--the use of diverse measures across GWA studies as well as time and the cost of assessment. In a series of four studies, we created a 15-min (40-item), online, gamified measure of g that is highly reliable (alpha = 0.78; two-week test-retest reliability = 0.88), psychometrically valid and scalable; we called this new measure Pathfinder. In a fifth study, we administered this measure to 4,751 young adults from the Twins Early Development Study. This novel g measure, which also yields reliable verbal and nonverbal scores, correlated substantially with standard measures of g collected at previous ages (r ranging from 0.42 at age 7 to 0.57 at age 16). Pathfinder showed substantial twin heritability (0.57, 95% CIs = 0.43, 0.68) and SNP heritability (0.37, 95% CIs = 0.04, 0.70). A polygenic score computed from GWA studies of five cognitive and educational traits accounted for 12% of the variation in g, the strongest DNA-based prediction of g to date. Widespread use of this engaging new measure will advance research not only in genomics but throughout the biological, medical, and behavioural sciences.

Commentary: The origins of intellectual disability.

Despite the importance and prevalence of intellectual disability (ID), its origins have not been well understood until now. Lichtenstein et al. report in this issue findings from a population-based sample four times larger than all previous family studies of ID put together (Lichtenstein et al., 2022). From more than four million people, 37,787 individuals were identified with ID. Relative risks (RRs) are reported for relatives of ID probands (55,000 first-degree, 55,000 second-degree, and 170,000 third-degree) as compared with matched relatives of individuals without ID. These relatives plus 400 pairs of twins in which at least one twin was diagnosed with ID yield an astonishing estimate of 95% heritability with no evidence for shared environmental influence in their model. Another important finding is that maternal half-siblings of ID individuals were at greater risk than paternal half-siblings, a maternal effect that could indicate X-chromosome linkage. Finally, profound and severe ID is etiologically distinct from the normal distribution, due in part to noninherited (de novo) genetic mutations and chromosomal abnormalities. However, 90% of individuals with ID are moderate or mild, and these represent the low end of the normal distribution of genetic influence on cognitive ability, which has important implications for DNA research on ID.

Commentary: Will genomics revolutionise research on gene-environment interplay?

The synthesis of quantitative genetics and molecular genetics is transforming research in the behavioural sciences. The ability to measure inherited DNA differences directly has led to polygenic scores and to new methods to estimate heritability and genetic correlations. This issue provides examples of how these advances can be appllied to research on gene-environment interplay in developmental psychopathology.

Using DNA to predict behaviour problems from preschool to adulthood.

BACKGROUND: One goal of the DNA revolution is to predict problems in order to prevent them. We tested here if the prediction of behaviour problems from genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) can be improved by creating composites across ages and across raters and by using a multi-GPS approach that includes GPS for adult psychiatric disorders as well as for childhood behaviour problems. METHOD: Our sample included 3,065 genotyped unrelated individuals from the Twins Early Development Study who were assessed longitudinally for hyperactivity, conduct, emotional problems, and peer problems as rated by parents, teachers, and children themselves. GPS created from 15 genome-wide association studies were used separately and jointly to test the prediction of behaviour problems composites (general behaviour problems, externalising, and internalising) across ages (from age 2 to 21) and across raters in penalised regression models. Based on the regression weights, we created multi-trait GPS reflecting the best prediction of behaviour problems. We compared GPS prediction to twin heritability using the same sample and measures. RESULTS: Multi-GPS prediction of behaviour problems increased from <2% of the variance for observed traits to up to 6% for cross-age and cross-rater composites. Twin study estimates of heritability, although to a lesser extent, mirrored patterns of multi-GPS prediction as they increased from <40% to 83%. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of GPS to predict behaviour problems can be improved by using multiple GPS, cross-age composites and cross-rater composites, although the effect sizes remain modest, up to 6%. Our approach can be used in any genotyped sample to create multi-trait GPS predictors of behaviour problems that will be more predictive than polygenic scores based on a single age, rater, or GPS.

Gene-environment interaction using polygenic scores: Do polygenic scores for psychopathology moderate predictions from environmental risk to behavior problems?

The DNA revolution has energized research on interactions between genes and environments (GxE) by creating indices of G (polygenic scores) that are powerful predictors of behavioral traits. Here, we test the extent to which polygenic scores for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and neuroticism moderate associations between parent reports of their children's environmental risk (E) at ages 3 and 4 and teacher ratings of behavior problems (hyperactivity/inattention, conduct problems, emotional symptoms, and peer relationship problems) at ages 7, 9 and 12. The sampling frame included up to 6687 twins from the Twins Early Development Study. Our analyses focused on relative effect sizes of G, E and GxE in predicting behavior problems. G, E and GxE predicted up to 2%, 2% and 0.4%, respectively, of the variance in externalizing behavior problems (hyperactivity/inattention and conduct problems) across ages 7, 9 and 12, with no clear developmental trends. G and E predictions of emotional symptoms and peer relationship problems were weaker. A quarter (12 of 48) of our tests of GxE were nominally significant (p = .05). Increasing the predictive power of G and E would enhance the search for GxE.