Integration of fruit fly and firefly optimization algorithm with support vector regression in estimating daily pan evaporation.

The purpose of the present study was to predict the pan evaporation values at four stations including Urmia, Makou, Mahabad, and Khoy, located in West Azerbaijan, Iran, using support vector regression (SVR), SVR coupled by fruit fly algorithm (SVR-FOA), and SVR coupled with firefly algorithm (SVR-FFA). Therefore, for the first time, this research has used the combined SVR-FOA to predict pan evaporation. For this purpose, meteorological parameters in the period of 1990-2020 were gathered and then using the Pearson's correlation coefficient, significant inputs for pan evaporation estimation were determined. The correlation evaluation of the parameters showed that the two parameters of wind speed and sunshine hours had the highest correlation with the pan evaporation values, and in addition, these parameters, as input to the models, improved the results and increased the accuracy of the models. The obtained results indicated that at Urmia station, SVR-FFA with the lowest error was the best model. The SVR-FOA also had better performance than the SVR model. Additionally, the result showed that SVR-FOA with the lowest errors had the best capability in pan evaporation estimation at other studied stations. Therefore, it was concluded that FOA with advantages such as simplicity, fewer parameters, easy adjustment, and less calculation can significantly increase the capability of independent SVR models. Hence, based on the overall results, SVR-FOA may be recommended as the most accurate method for pan evaporation estimation.

Explainable diabetes classification using hybrid Bayesian-optimized TabNet architecture.

Diabetes is a deadly chronic disease that occurs when the pancreas is not able to produce ample insulin or when the body cannot use insulin effectively. If undetected, it may lead to a host of health complications. Hence, accurate and explainable early-stage detection of diabetes is essential for the proper administration of treatment options in leading a healthy and productive life. For this, we developed an interpretable TabNet model tuned via Bayesian optimization (BO). To achieve model-specific interpretability, the attention mechanism of TabNet architecture was used, which offered the local and global model explanations on the influence of the attributes on the outcomes. The model was further explained locally and globally using more robust model-agnostic LIME and SHAP eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) tools. The proposed model outperformed all benchmarked models by obtaining high accuracy of 92.2% and 99.4% using the Pima Indians diabetes dataset (PIDD) and the early-stage diabetes risk prediction dataset (ESDRPD), respectively. Based on the XAI results, it was clear that the most influential attribute for diabetes classification using PIDD and ESDRPD were Insulin and Polyuria, respectively. The feature importance values registered for insulin was 0.301 (PIDD) and for polyuria 0.206 was registered (ESDRPD). The high accuracy and ancillary interpretability of our objective model is expected to increase end-users trust and confidence in early-stage detection of diabetes.

Coupled online sequential extreme learning machine model with ant colony optimization algorithm for wheat yield prediction.

Inadequate agricultural planning compounded by inaccurate predictions results in an inflated local market rate and prompts higher importation of wheat. To tackle this problem, this research has designed two-phase universal machine learning (ML) model to predict wheat yield (Wpred), utilizing 27 agricultural counties' data within the Agro-ecological zone. The universal model, online sequential extreme learning machines coupled with ant colony optimization (ACO-OSELM) is developed, by incorporating the significant annual yield data lagged at (t - 1) as the model's predictor to generate future yield at 6 test stations. In the first phase, ACO is adopted to search for suitable, statistically relevant data stations for model training, and the corresponding test station by virtue of a feature selection strategy. An annual wheat yield time-series input dataset is constructed utilizing data from each selected training station (1981-2013) and applied against 6 test stations (with each case modelled with 26 station data as the input) to evaluate the hybrid ACO-OSELM model. The partial autocorrelation function is implemented to deduce statistically significant lagged data, and OSELM is applied to generate Wpred. The two-phase hybrid ACO-OSELM model is tested within the 6 agricultural districts (represented as stations) of Punjab province, Pakistan and the results are benchmarked with extreme learning machine (ELM) and random forest (RF) integrated with ACO (i.e., hybrid ACO-ELM and hybrid ACO-RF models, respectively). The performance of the ACO-OSELM model was proven to be good in comparison to ACO-ELM and ACO-RF models. The hybrid ACO-OSELM model revealed its potential to be implemented as a decision-making system for crop yield prediction in areas where a significant association with the historical agricultural crop is well-established.

A hybrid air quality early-warning framework: An hourly forecasting model with online sequential extreme learning machines and empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

Modelling air quality with a practical tool that produces real-time forecasts to mitigate risk to public health continues to face significant challenges considering the chaotic, non-linear and high dimensional nature of air quality predictor variables. The novelty of this research is to propose a hybrid early-warning artificial intelligence (AI) framework that can emulate hourly air quality variables (i.e., Particulate Matter 2.5, PM2.5; Particulate Matter 10, PM10 and lower atmospheric visibility, VIS), the atmospheric variables associated with increased respiratory induced mortality and recurrent health-care cost. Firstly, hourly air quality data series (January-2015 to December-2017) are demarcated into their respective intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual sub-series that reveal patterns and resolve data complexity characteristics, followed by partial autocorrelation function applied to each IMF and residual sub-series to unveil historical changes in air quality. To design the prescribed hybrid model, the data is partitioned into training (70%), validation (15%) and testing (15%) sub-sets. The online sequential-extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) algorithm integrated with improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) is designed as a data pre-processing system to robustly extract predictive patterns and fine-tune the model generalization to a near-optimal global solution, which represents modelled air quality at hourly forecast horizons. The resulting early warning AI-based framework denoted as ICEEMDAN-OS-ELM model, is individually constructed by forecasting each IMF and residual sub-series, with hourly PM2.5, PM10, and VIS obtained by the aggregated sum of forecasted IMFs and residual sub-series. The results are benchmarked with many competing predictive approaches; e.g., hybrid ICEEMDAN-multiple-linear regression (MLR), ICEEMDAN-M5 model tree and standalone versions: OS-ELM, MLR, M5 model tree. Statistical metrics including the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Willmott's Index (WI), Legates & McCabe's Index (ELM) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (ENS) are used to evaluate the model's accuracy. Both visual and statistical results show that the proposed ICEEMDAN-OS-ELM model registers superior results, outperforming alternative comparison approaches. For instance, for PM2.5,ELM values ranged from 0.65-0.82 vs. 0.59-0.77 for ICEEMDAN-M5 tree, 0.59-0.74 for ICEEMDAN-MLR, 0.28-0.54 for OS-ELM, 0.27-0.54 for M5 tree and 0.25-0.53 for the MLR model. For remaining air quality variables (i.e., PM10 & VIS), the objective model (ICEEMDAN-OS-ELM) outperformed the comparative models. In particular, ICEEMDAN-OS-ELM registered relatively low RMSE/MAE, ranging from approximately 0.7-1.03 µg/m3(MAE), 1.01-1.47 µg/m3(RMSE) for PM2.5 whereas for PM10, these metrics registered a value of 1.29-3.84 µg/m3(MAE), 3.01-7.04 µg/m3(RMSE) and for Visibility, they were 0.01-3.72 µg/m3 (MAE (Mm-1)), 0.04-5.98 µg/m3 (RMSE (Mm-1)). Visual analysis of forecasted and observed air quality through a Taylor diagram illustrates the objective model's preciseness, confirming the versatility of early warning AI-model in generating air quality forecasts. The excellent performance ascertains the hybrid model's potential utility for air quality monitoring and subsequent public health risk mitigation.