Relative abundance of Mycobacterium bovis molecular types in cattle: a simulation study of potential epidemiological drivers.

BACKGROUND: The patterns of relative species abundance are commonly studied in ecology and epidemiology to provide insights into underlying dynamical processes. Molecular types (MVLA-types) of Mycobacterium bovis, the causal agent of bovine tuberculosis, are now routinely recorded in culture-confirmed bovine tuberculosis cases in Northern Ireland. In this study, we use ecological approaches and simulation modelling to investigate the distribution of relative abundances of MVLA-types and its potential drivers. We explore four biologically plausible hypotheses regarding the processes driving molecular type relative abundances: sampling and speciation; structuring of the pathogen population; historical changes in population size; and transmission heterogeneity (superspreading). RESULTS: Northern Irish herd-level MVLA-type surveillance shows a right-skewed distribution of MVLA-types, with a small number of types present at very high frequencies and the majority of types very rare. We demonstrate that this skew is too extreme to be accounted for by simple neutral ecological processes. Simulation results indicate that the process of MVLA-type speciation and the manner in which the MVLA-typing loci were chosen in Northern Ireland cannot account for the observed skew. Similarly, we find that pathogen population structure, assuming for example a reservoir of infection in a separate host, would drive the relative abundance distribution in the opposite direction to that observed, generating more even abundances of molecular types. However, we find that historical increases in bovine tuberculosis prevalence and/or transmission heterogeneity (superspreading) are both capable of generating the skewed MVLA-type distribution, consistent with findings of previous work examining the distribution of molecular types in human tuberculosis. CONCLUSION: Although the distribution of MVLA-type abundances does not fit classical neutral predictions, our simulations show that increases in pathogen population size and/or superspreading are consistent with the pattern observed, even in the absence of selective pressures acting on the system.

Whole-Genome sequencing in routine Mycobacterium bovis epidemiology - scoping the potential.

Mycobacterium bovis the main agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), presents as a series of spatially-localised micro-epidemics across landscapes. Classical molecular typing methods applied to these micro-epidemics, based on genotyping a few variable loci, have significantly improved our understanding of potential epidemiological links between outbreaks. However, they have limited utility owing to low resolution. Conversely, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provides the highest resolution data available for molecular epidemiology, producing richer outbreak tracing, insights into phylogeography and epidemic evolutionary history. We illustrate these advantages by focusing on a common single lineage of M. bovis (1.140) from Northern Ireland. Specifically, we investigate the spatial sub-structure of 20 years of herd-level multi locus VNTR analysis (MLVA) surveillance data and WGS data from a down sampled subset of isolates of this MLVA type over the same time frame. We mapped 2108 isolate locations of MLVA type 1.140 over the years 2000-2022. We also mapped the locations of 148 contemporary WGS isolates from this lineage, over a similar geographic range, stratifying by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) relatedness cut-offs of 15 SNPs. We determined a putative core range for the 1.140 MLVA type and SNP-defined sequence clusters using a 50 % kernel density estimate, using cattle movement data to inform on likely sources of WGS isolates found outside of core ranges. Finally, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic methods to investigate past population history and reproductive number of the 1.140 M. bovis lineage. We demonstrate that WGS SNP-defined clusters exhibit smaller core ranges than the established MLVA type - facilitating superior disease tracing. We also demonstrate the superior functionality of WGS data in determining how this lineage was disseminated across the landscape, likely via cattle movement and to infer how its effective population size and reproductive number has been in flux since its emergence. These initial findings highlight the potential of WGS data for routine monitoring of bTB outbreaks.

Genomic epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis infection in sympatric badger and cattle populations in Northern Ireland.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a costly, epidemiologically complex, multi-host, endemic disease. Lack of understanding of transmission dynamics may undermine eradication efforts. Pathogen whole-genome sequencing improves epidemiological inferences, providing a means to determine the relative importance of inter- and intra-species host transmission for disease persistence. We sequenced an exceptional data set of 619 Mycobacterium bovis isolates from badgers and cattle in a 100 km2 bTB 'hotspot' in Northern Ireland. Historical molecular subtyping data permitted the targeting of an endemic pathogen lineage, whose long-term persistence provided a unique opportunity to study disease transmission dynamics in unparalleled detail. Additionally, to assess whether badger population genetic structure was associated with the spatial distribution of pathogen genetic diversity, we microsatellite genotyped hair samples from 769 badgers trapped in this area. Birth death models and TransPhylo analyses indicated that cattle were likely driving the local epidemic, with transmission from cattle to badgers being more common than badger to cattle. Furthermore, the presence of significant badger population genetic structure in the landscape was not associated with the spatial distribution of M. bovis genetic diversity, suggesting that badger-to-badger transmission is not playing a major role in transmission dynamics. Our data were consistent with badgers playing a smaller role in transmission of M. bovis infection in this study site, compared to cattle. We hypothesize, however, that this minor role may still be important for persistence. Comparison to other areas suggests that M. bovis transmission dynamics are likely to be context dependent, with the role of wildlife being difficult to generalize.

Mycobacterium bovis Population Structure in Cattle and Local Badgers: Co-Localisation and Variation by Farm Type.

Bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Northern Ireland includes Multiple-Locus Variable number tandem repeat Analysis (MLVA) to determine the Mycobacterium bovis genetic type present in both cattle and the predominant wildlife host, the European badger (Meles meles). These data are useful for investigating clusters of infection and understanding the scale at which interspecific transmission may occur. We utilised a comprehensive dataset of routinely sampled isolates from infected cattle and from badgers killed in road-traffic accidents to investigate the spatial co-location of MLVA types in, and between, the badger and cattle populations. Furthermore, we investigated the hypothesis that the type of farming enterprise might explain some variation in this relationship. MLVA types were spatially co-localised in cattle and road-traffic accident (RTA) badger hosts, indicative of a shared epidemic. Dairy herds were more likely to have at least one MLVA type in common with nearby RTA badgers, compared to non-dairy herd types. Marginally more MLVA spatial clustering was observed in non-dairy herds, which may be a consequence of relatively more between-herd movements. For the cattle population, local transmission mechanisms such as infection from contiguous herds, infectious wildlife and short-range between-herd cattle movements appear primarily to drive the epidemic: there appears to be a more limited role for long-range movements. Animal management practices are likely to be the driving force behind this observation, as beef rearing is associated with elevated numbers of animal movements compared to dairy herds.

Bovine tuberculosis breakdown duration in cattle herds: an investigation of herd, host, pathogen and wildlife risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Despite rigorous controls placed on herds which disclose ante-mortem test positive cattle to bovine tuberculosis, caused by the infection of Mycobacterium bovis, many herds in Northern Ireland (NI) experience prolonged breakdowns. These herds represent a considerable administrative and financial burden to the State and farming community. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted to better understand the factors associated with breakdown duration, which was modelled using both negative binomial and ordinal regression approaches. RESULTS: Six explanatory variables were important predictors of breakdown length in both models; herd size, the number of reactors testing positive in the initial SICCT test, the presence of a lesioned animal at routine slaughter (LRS), the count of M. bovis genotypes during the breakdown (MLVA richness), the local herd-level bTB prevalence, and the presence of herds linked via management factors (associated herds). We report that between 2008 and 2014, mean breakdown duration in NI was 226 days (approx. seven months; median: 188 days). In the same period, however, more than 6% of herds in the region remained under movement restriction for more than 420 days (13 months); almost twice as long as the mean. The MLVA richness variable was a particularly important predictor of breakdown duration. We contend that this variable primarily represents a proxy for beef fattening herds, which can operate by purchasing cattle and selling animals straight to slaughter, despite prolonged trading restrictions. For other herd types, the model supports the hypothesis that prolonged breakdowns are a function of both residual infection within the herd, and infection from the environment (e.g. infected wildlife, contiguous herds and/or a contaminated environment). The impact of badger density on breakdown duration was assessed by including data on main sett (burrow) density. Whilst a positive association was observed in the univariate analysis, confounding with other variables means that the contribution of badgers to prolonged breakdowns was not clear from our study. We do not fully reject the hypothesis that badgers are implicated in prolonging bTB breakdowns via spillback infection, but given our results, we posit that increased disease risk from badgers is unlikely to simply be a function of increasing badger density measured using sett metrics.

Genomic epizootiology of a Brucella abortus outbreak in Northern Ireland (1997-2012).

BACKGROUND: In the recent past (1997-2012), Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom suffered an outbreak of Brucella abortus, which at its height affected over 200 cattle herds. Initially, isolates were characterized using multi-locus variable number tandem repeats analysis (MLVA). While informative in this setting, hyper-variability in some loci limited the resolution necessary to infer fine-scale disease transmission networks. Consequently, we applied whole-genome sequencing to isolates from this outbreak to evaluate higher resolution markers for disease epizootiology. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the B. abortus outbreak in Northern Ireland was caused by two distinct pathogen lineages. One contained isolates consistent with the 1997-2012 outbreak being linked to a previous endemic infection thought eradicated. The dominant second lineage exhibited little genetic diversity throughout the recrudescent outbreak, with limited population sub-structure evident. This finding was inconsistent with prior MLVA molecular characterizations that suggested the presence of seven clonal complexes. Spatio-temporal modeling revealed a significant association of pairwise SNP differences between isolates and geographic distances. However, effect sizes were very small due to reduced pathogen diversity. CONCLUSIONS: Genome sequence data suggested that hyper-variability in some MLVA loci contributed to an overestimate of pathogen diversity in the most recent outbreak. The low diversity observed in our genomic dataset made it inappropriate to apply phylodynamic methods to these data. We conclude that maintaining data repositories of genome sequence data will be invaluable for source attribution/epizootiological inference should recrudescence ever re-occur. However genomic epizootiological methods may have limited utility in some settings, such as when applied to recrudescent/re-emergent infections of slowly-evolving bacterial pathogens.

Genetic evidence further elucidates the history and extent of badger introductions from Great Britain into Ireland.

The colonization of Ireland by mammals has been the subject of extensive study using genetic methods and forms a central problem in understanding the phylogeography of European mammals after the Last Glacial Maximum. Ireland exhibits a depauperate mammal fauna relative to Great Britain and continental Europe, and a range of natural and anthropogenic processes have given rise to its modern fauna. Previous Europe-wide surveys of the European badger (Meles meles) have found conflicting microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA evidence in Irish populations, suggesting Irish badgers have arisen from admixture between human imported British and Scandinavian animals. The extent and history of contact between British and Irish badger populations remains unclear. We use comprehensive genetic data from Great Britain and Ireland to demonstrate that badgers in Ireland's northeastern and southeastern counties are genetically similar to contemporary British populations. Simulation analyses suggest this admixed population arose in Ireland 600-700 (CI 100-2600) years before present most likely through introduction of British badgers by people. These findings add to our knowledge of the complex colonization history of Ireland by mammals and the central role of humans in facilitating it.

Characteristics of Northern Irish cattle herds without bovine tuberculosis infection.

BACKGROUND: Despite ongoing eradication efforts, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is endemic in cattle herds in Northern Ireland (NI). This disease has serious implications for the economy, farming and animal welfare. Previous research identified a population of herds which have remained free from bTB infection for 10 years (2004-2014). Understanding the characteristics of these herds may have important implications for eradication efforts, such as spatially targeted interventions. METHODS: A cluster analysis and a retrospective case-control analysis was conducted to compare bTB- free herds with herds which experienced prolonged infection (ie, bTB breakdowns lasting more than ≥ 365 days). RESULTS: Only small, localised clusters of herds which have remained free from bTB were revealed, thus limiting the potential for spatially targeted interventions. The results illustrated the importance of herd size to disease status; over 27 per cent of the bTB-free herds had up to 10 animals. However, the data also showed that there were no inward movements in the year before the bTB skin test in those herds which remained free from bTB. CONCLUSIONS: Attention should therefore be given to the cattle movement network in NI to better understand the risk associated with cattle purchasing.

Combining genomics and epidemiology to analyse bi-directional transmission of Mycobacterium bovis in a multi-host system.

Quantifying pathogen transmission in multi-host systems is difficult, as exemplified in bovine tuberculosis (bTB) systems, but is crucial for control. The agent of bTB, Mycobacterium bovis, persists in cattle populations worldwide, often where potential wildlife reservoirs exist. However, the relative contribution of different host species to bTB persistence is generally unknown. In Britain, the role of badgers in infection persistence in cattle is highly contentious, despite decades of research and control efforts. We applied Bayesian phylogenetic and machine-learning approaches to bacterial genome data to quantify the roles of badgers and cattle in M. bovis infection dynamics in the presence of data biases. Our results suggest that transmission occurs more frequently from badgers to cattle than vice versa (10.4x in the most likely model) and that within-species transmission occurs at higher rates than between-species transmission for both. If representative, our results suggest that control operations should target both cattle and badgers.

The population and landscape genetics of the European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland.

The population genetic structure of free-ranging species is expected to reflect landscape-level effects. Quantifying the role of these factors and their relative contribution often has important implications for wildlife management. The population genetics of the European badger (Meles meles) have received considerable attention, not least because the species acts as a potential wildlife reservoir for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Britain and Ireland. Herein, we detail the most comprehensive population and landscape genetic study of the badger in Ireland to date-comprised of 454 Irish badger samples, genotyped at 14 microsatellite loci. Bayesian and multivariate clustering methods demonstrated continuous clinal variation across the island, with potentially distinct differentiation observed in Northern Ireland. Landscape genetic analyses identified geographic distance and elevation as the primary drivers of genetic differentiation, in keeping with badgers exhibiting high levels of philopatry. Other factors hypothesized to affect gene flow, including earth worm habitat suitability, land cover type, and the River Shannon, had little to no detectable effect. By providing a more accurate picture of badger population structure and the factors effecting it, these data can guide current efforts to manage the species in Ireland and to better understand its role in bTB.