[Risk factors for clinical deterioration in patients admitted for COVID-19: A case-control study]. / Factores de riesgo de deterioro clínico en pacientes ingresados por COVID-19: estudio caso-control.

INTRODUCTION: There is controversy regarding the best predictors of clinical deterioration in COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: This work aims to identify predictors of risk factors for deterioration in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. METHODS DESIGN: Nested case-control study within a cohort. Setting: 13 acute care centers of the Osakidetza-Basque Health Service. Participants: Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with clinical deterioration-defined as onset of severe ARDS, ICU admission, or death-were considered cases. Two controls were matched to each case based on age. Sociodemographic data; comorbidities; baseline treatment; symptoms; date of onset; previous consultations; and clinical, analytical, and radiological variables were collected. An explanatory model of clinical deterioration was created by means of conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 99 cases and 198 controls were included. According to the logistic regression analysis, the independent variables associated with clinical deterioration were: emergency department O2 saturation ≤90% (OR 16.6; 95%CI 4-68), pathological chest X-ray (OR 5.6; 95%CI 1.7-18.4), CRP >100 mg/dL (OR 3.62; 95%CI 1.62-8), thrombocytopenia with < 150,000 platelets (OR 4; 95%CI 1.84-8.6); and a medical history of acute myocardial infarction (OR 15.7; 95%CI, 3.29-75.09), COPD (OR 3.05; 95%CI 1.43-6.5), or HT (OR 2.21; 95%CI 1.11-4.4). The model's AUC was 0.86. On the univariate analysis, female sex and presence of dry cough and sore throat were associated with better clinical progress, but were not found to be significant on the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: The variables identified could be useful in clinical practice for the detection of patients at high risk of poor outcomes.

Impact of age on the use of adjuvant treatments in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer: patients with stage III colon or stage II/III rectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Many older patients don't receive appropriate oncological treatment. Our aim was to analyse whether there are age differences in the use of adjuvant chemotherapy and preoperative radiotherapy in patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 22 hospitals including 1157 patients with stage III colon or stage II/III rectal cancer who underwent surgery. Primary outcomes were the use of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer and preoperative radiotherapy for stage II/III rectal cancer. Generalised estimating equations were used to adjust for education, living arrangements, area deprivation, comorbidity and clinical tumour characteristics. RESULTS: In colon cancer 92% of patients aged under 65 years, 77% of those aged 65 to 80 years and 27% of those aged over 80 years received adjuvant chemotherapy (χ2trends < 0.001). In rectal cancer preoperative radiotherapy was used in 68% of patients aged under 65 years, 60% of those aged 65 to 80 years, and 42% of those aged over 80 years (χ2trends < 0.001). Adjusting by comorbidity level, tumour characteristics and socioeconomic level, the odds ratio of use of chemotherapy compared with those under age 65, was 0.3 (0.1-0.6) and 0.04 (0.02-0.09) for those aged 65 to 80 and those aged over 80, respectively; similarly, the odds ratio of use of preoperative radiotherapy was 0.9 (0.6-1.4) and 0.5 (0.3-0.8) compared with those under 65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of older patients with colorectal cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy and preoperative radiotherapy is lower than that of younger patients; many of them are not receiving the treatments recommended by clinical practice guidelines. Differences in comorbidity, tumour characteristics, curative resection, and socioeconomic factors do not explain this lower probability of treatment. Research is needed to identify the role of physical and cognitive functional status, doctors' attitudes, and preferences of patients and their relatives, in the use of adjuvant therapies.

CCR-CARESS score for predicting operative mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess factors associated with outcomes after surgery for colorectal cancer and to design and internally validate a simple score for predicting perioperative mortality. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancer in 22 centres in Spain between June 2010 and December 2012 were included. Clinical variables up to 30 days were collected prospectively. Multiple logistic regression techniques were applied and a risk score was developed. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was applied and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC, with 95 per cent c.i.) was estimated. RESULTS: A total of 2749 patients with a median age of 68·5 (range 24-97) years were included; the male : female ratio was approximately 2 : 1. Stage III tumours were diagnosed in 32·6 per cent and stage IV in 9·5 per cent. Open surgery was used in 39·3 per cent, and 3·6 per cent of interventions were urgent. Complications were most commonly infectious or surgical, and 25·5 per cent of patients had a transfusion during the hospital stay. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 1·9 (95 per cent c.i. 1·4 to 2·4) per cent. Predictive factors independently associated with mortality were: age 80 years or above (odds ratio (OR) 2·76), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR 3·62) and palliative surgery (OR 10·46). According to the categorical risk score, a patient aged 80 years or more, with COPD, and who underwent palliative surgery would have a 23·5 per cent risk of death within 30 days of the intervention. CONCLUSION: Elderly patients with co-morbidity and palliative intention of surgery have an unacceptably high risk of death.

Predictors of 1- and 2-year mortality in patients with rectal cancer.

AIM: Tools are needed to aid in the assessment of the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer regarding the risk of medium-term mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate clinical prediction rules for 1- and 2-year mortality in patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer. METHOD: A prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with rectal cancer who underwent surgery was carried out. The main outcomes were mortality at 1 and 2 years after surgery. Background, clinical parameters and diagnostic test findings were evaluated as possible predictors. Multivariable survival models were used in the statistical analyses. RESULTS: Predictors of 1-year mortality were being a current smoker [hazard ratio (HR) 4.98], having a Charlson index adjusted by age > 5 (HR 2.61), the presence of vascular, perineural or lymphatic invasion (HR 3.30), the presence of residual tumour at the operation (R-stage) (HR 8.64) and TNM stage (HR for TNM IV 5.10) [concordance index (C-index) 0.799 (95% CI: 0.71-0.89)]. Age greater than 80 years (HR 2.19), being a current smoker (HR 2.20), the pre-intervention haemoglobin level (HR 2.02), need for blood transfusion (HR 2.12), vascular, perineural or lymphatic invasion (HR 2.59), R-stage of the operation (HR 6.13) and TNM stage (HR for TNM IV 4.43) were predictors of 2-year mortality [C-index 0.779 (0.718-0.840)]. Adjuvant chemotherapy was an additional predictor at both outcome durations. CONCLUSION: These clinical parameters show good predictive values and are easy and quick-to-use tools to help in clinical decision making.

Association between social support, functional status, and change in health-related quality of life and changes in anxiety and depression in colorectal cancer patients.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the association between baseline social support, functional status, and change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in colorectal cancer patients and change in anxiety and depression measured by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at 1 year after surgery. METHODS: Consecutive patients who were due to undergo therapeutic surgery for the first time for colon or rectal cancer in 9 hospitals in Spain were eligible for the study. Patients completed the following questionnaires before surgery and 12 months afterward: 1 HRQoL instrument, the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire; a social support questionnaire, the Duke-UNC Functional Social Support Questionnaire; the Barthel Index, to assess functional status; the HADS, to assess anxiety and depression; and questions about sociodemographic information. General linear models were built to explore the association between social support, functional status, and change in HRQoL and changes in anxiety and depression 12 months after surgery. RESULTS: A total of 947 colorectal cancer patients took part in the study. Patients' functional status, social support, and change in HRQoL were associated with changes in anxiety and depression. Greater social support and improvements in physical, cognitive, and social functioning and in insomnia resulted in improvements in anxiety and depression. No functionally independent patients were associated with lesser improvements in anxiety and depression. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal cancer patients who have more social support, are functionally independent and have higher improvements in HRQoL may have better results in anxiety and depression at 1 year after surgery, adjusting for age, gender, location, occupation, and baseline HADS scores.

Prospective study of predictive factors of changes in pain and hip function after hip fracture among the elderly.

UNLABELLED: Our study identified pre-fracture variables, such as home status or function, that are directly or indirectly associated with frailty status before fracture. The prevention in the deterioration of those variables would improve the prognosis of those hip fractured, being this an important issue for the societies with increasingly aging population. INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to identify predictors of pain and declines in function among elderly patients following a fall-related hip fracture. METHODS: Patients aged 65 or older with a fall-related hip fracture retrospectively completed pre-fracture status questionnaires (T0; n = 740) and were then prospectively followed for 6 months (T1; n = 546). Of these, 474 were randomly selected to complete an additional 18 months of follow-up (T2; n = 356). Primary outcome measures were changes in the pain and function dimensions of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index questionnaire's short form (WOMAC-SF). Potential predictors included sociodemographic variables, in-hospital and clinical pre- and post-fracture data, and activities of daily living at baseline and follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression was used for analysis. RESULTS: Predictors of worsening pain at T1 and/or T2 included living in a home care situation or nursing home before the fracture (OR at T1, 1.515; OR at T2, 2.749), and low pre-fracture pain (OR at T1, 1.028; OR at T2, 1.027). Predictors of deterioration in function at T1 and/or T2 included age ≥85 years (OR at T1, 2.714; OR at T2, 4.762), lower income (OR at T1, 1.755), high pre-fracture hip function (OR at T1, 1.029; OR at T2, 1.028), referral to rehabilitation upon discharge (OR at T1, 2.378; OR at T2, 2.881), and longer delay between fall and surgery (OR at T1, 1.133; OR at T2, 1.124). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty before hip fracture is a predictor of greater post-fracture pain and deterioration in function. Given that exercise programs help prevent frailty, promoting exercise in elderly may improve the prognosis of hip fracture.

Association of social support, functional status, and psychological variables with changes in health-related quality of life outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the association of social support received, and functional and psychological status of colorectal cancer patients before surgery with changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes measured by EORTC QLQ-C30 at 1-year post-intervention. METHODS: Consecutive patients that were because of undergo therapeutic surgery for the first time for colon or rectum cancer in nine hospitals in Spain were eligible for the study. Patients completed questionnaires before surgery and 12 months afterwards: one HRQoL instrument, the EORTC QLQ-C30; a social network and social support questionnaire, the Duke-UNC Functional Social Support Questionnaire; the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, to assess anxiety and depression; and the Barthel Index, to assess functional status; as well as questions about sociodemographic information. General linear models were built to explore the association of social support, functional status, and psychological variables with changes in HRQoL 12 months after intervention. RESULTS: A total of 972 patients with colorectal cancer took part in the study. Patients' functional status, social support, and anxiety and depression were associated with changes in at least one HRQoL domain. The higher functional status, and the higher social support, the more they improved in HRQoL domains. Regarding anxiety and depression, the more anxiety and depression patients have at baseline, less they improve in HRQoL domains. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with colorectal cancer who have more social support and no psychological distress may have better results in HRQoL domains at 1 year after surgery. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Changes in health-related quality of life and activities of daily living after hip fracture because of a fall in elderly patients: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of hip fracture because of a fall on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and activities of daily living (ADL) have not been well established. AIM: To evaluate changes in HRQoL and the ability to conduct ADL among patients with hip fracture because of a fall and to compare these changes with patients who did not fall and break a hip, adjusting by gender and age. METHODS: Adults aged 65 or more who attended the emergency departments of seven public hospitals were recruited in a prospective double-cohort study (fracture cohort, n = 776; non-fracture cohort, n = 115). ADL and HRQoL were assessed at baseline (during the postfall hospitalisation or by telephone afterwards) and 6 months later using the Barthel Index and the Lawton Brody Index for ADL, and the Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index short form (WOMAC-SF) for HRQoL. RESULTS: Adjusting by gender, age and baseline status, a hip fracture was a strong predictor of decline in all outcomes measured except for mental quality of life among men (measured by SF-12). Hip fracture patients younger than 74 years reported significantly more pain (measured by WOMAC-SF) than the comparison group (p = 0.02), but this difference was not observed among older patients (p = 0.19 for 75-84 years; p = 0.39 for ≥ 85 years). DISCUSSION: Hip fractures have profound effects on HRQoL and ADL in both men and women, regardless of age. This indicates the need for special follow-up care of elderly hip fracture patients in the immediate and late postfracture periods.

Evaluation of the psychometric characteristics of the Spanish version of the Anorectic Behaviour Observation Scale.

AIMS: The Anorectic Behaviour Observation Scale (ABOS) was designed to obtain information from relatives about behaviours and attitudes of patients with eating disorders (ED). The aim of this study was to validate the ABOS into Spanish. METHODS: We evaluated the psychometric characteristics of the Spanish version of the ABOS in a clinical ED sample (239 caregivers of 143 ED patients). Instrument reliability (internal consistency), validity (construct, convergent and discriminant, known groups), responsiveness and goodness-of-fit were measured. RESULTS: Data from the Spanish population revealed a three-factor structure similar to that of the original ABOS, although the composition of subscales differed somewhat from the original. An ABOS cut-point of 21 was identified. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the total ABOS score was 0.81. Correlations with other instruments demonstrated convergent and divergent validity. Among caregivers, the total ABOS score and Factor scores significantly discriminated between anxiety, depression and health-related quality of life, while among ED patients they discriminated between diagnosis, severity and level of ED symptoms - evidence of known-groups validity. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the ABOS can be reliably and validly used in Spain in a number of different clinical contexts, by researchers and clinicians alike.

Impact of interdisciplinary treatment on physical and psychosocial parameters in patients with fibromyalgia: results of a randomised trial.

AIM: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a persistent disorder that can have a devastating effect on patients' lives. The purpose of the study was to assess the effects of an interdisciplinary treatment for FM on patients' physical and psychosocial parameters. METHODS: A randomised controlled clinical trial carried out among 153 patients. The control group (CG) received standard pharmacological therapy. The experimental group (EG) received an interdisciplinary treatment. At baseline and 6 months after the intervention, participants completed assessment for impact of FM in the quality of life, anxiety, depression, coping with pain, social support and satisfaction with the treatment. RESULTS: A total of 110 participants completed the trial. Six months after the intervention, statistically significant improvements in quality of life (p = 0.04), pain (p = 0.03), self-assertiveness (p = 0.01), mental self-control (p = 0.05), social support (p = 0.02) and satisfaction (p = 0.0001) were observed in the EG. Randomisation to the EG was identified as a predictor for improvement. CONCLUSION: An interdisciplinary intervention may be appropriate for patients referred to a hospital pain management unit.

Validity of criteria for hospital admission in exacerbations of COPD.

AIMS: To validate a previously developed set of explicit criteria for the appropriateness of hospital admission among these patients using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology (RAM). METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients experiencing symptoms of COPD exacerbation seen in the emergency departments (ED) of 16 hospitals belonging to the Spanish National Health Service. Sociodemographic and clinical variables needed to assess appropriateness were recorded. Main outcomes were mortality, severe COPD evolution, complications at follow up, and three patient-reported measures: dyspnoea level, capacity for physical activity and perceived health status. RESULTS: Appropriately admitted patients were more likely to die (6.70% vs. 2.68%, p = 0.0102) than inappropriately admitted patients, and were more likely to develop severe evolution (27.09% vs. 6.08%, p < 0.0001) and complications (18.72% vs. 11.92%, p = 0.0244). Among discharged patients, no significant differences were observed in clinical outcomes. All patients exhibited worse dyspnoea and capacity for physical activity after exacerbation, but changes among appropriately admitted patients were less than among appropriately discharged patients. CONCLUSION: Our appropriateness criteria identified patients in worse condition at ED arrival who were more likely to benefit from admission in terms of mortality and COPD evolution.

Health-related quality of life and functionality in elderly men and women before and after a fall-related wrist fracture.

AIMS: To evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and functionality among older men and women who suffered a wrist fracture because of a fall and to identify postfracture consequences. METHODS: Observational, prospective cohort study of patients recruited in the emergency departments (ED) of six public hospitals of the Basque Health Service and one of the Catalan Health Service. Two groups of adults aged 65 or older were recruited: 960 with wrist fractures because of falls (fracture cohort) and 119 without fall-related wrist fractures in the previous year (non-fracture cohort). We collected sociodemographical and clinical data; general and specific HRQoL data measured by the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) and a short version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand instrument (QuickDASH); and data about basic (BADL) and instrumental (IADL) activities of daily living, measured by the Barthel Index and the Lawton and Brody Index (LBI). RESULTS: Women with wrist fractures exhibited greater declines than men 6 months after the fall in all questionnaires except the LBI, and greater declines than those in the non-fracture cohort independent of gender. Patients aged 80 years and older presented with worse baseline scores in all the outcome measures and lost more HRQoL and functionality after wrist fractures. DISCUSSION: Women and older individuals experienced the greatest reductions in HRQoL and functionality after a fall-related wrist facture, suggesting that they might merit special attention in clinical care and public health policy. CONCLUSIONS: Specific prevention strategies may be needed to avoid or reduce the consequences of fall-related wrist fractures.

Total knee replacement; minimal clinically important differences and responders.

OBJECTIVE: To provide new data on minimally clinical important difference (MCID) and percentages of responders on pain and functional dimensions of Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) in patients who have undergone total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: 1-year prospective multicentre study with two different cohorts. Consecutive patients on the waiting list were recruited. There were 415 and 497 patients included. Pain and function were collected by the reverse scoring option of the WOMAC (0-100, worst to best). Transition items (five point scale) were collected at 1-year and MCID was calculated through mean change in patients somewhat better, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and two other questions about satisfaction. Analysis was performed in the whole sample and by tertiles of baseline severity. Likewise were calculated the percentages of patients who attained cut-off values. RESULTS: Global MCID for pain were about 30 in both cohorts and 32 for. By ROC these values were about 20 and 24 respectively. According to the other two transitional questions these values were for pain 27 and 20 for function. By tertiles the worst the baseline score the higher the cut-off values. Percentage of responders does not change when comparing responders to the global MCID with their own tertile MCID and were about 61% for pain and 50% for function. CONCLUSION: Due to the wide variations, MCID estimates should be calculated and used according to the baseline severity score.

Impact of outdoor air pollution on severity and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia.

The relationship between exposure to air pollution and the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia and other outcomes is poorly understood. Beyond age and comorbidity, risk factors for adverse outcomes including death have been poorly studied. The main objective of our study was to examine the relationship between exposure to outdoor air pollution and the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia using individual-level data. The secondary objective was to investigate the impact of air pollutants on gas exchange and systemic inflammation in this disease. This cohort study included 1548 patients hospitalised for COVID-19 pneumonia between February and May 2020 in one of four hospitals. Local agencies supplied daily data on environmental air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, O3, NO2, NO and NOX) and meteorological conditions (temperature and humidity) in the year before hospital admission (from January 2019 to December 2019). Daily exposure to pollution and meteorological conditions by individual postcode of residence was estimated using geospatial Bayesian generalised additive models. The influence of air pollution on pneumonia severity was studied using generalised additive models which included: age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, hospital, average income, air temperature and humidity, and exposure to each pollutant. Additionally, generalised additive models were generated for exploring the effect of air pollution on C-reactive protein (CRP) level and SpO2/FiO2 at admission. According to our results, both risk of COVID-19 death and CRP level increased significantly with median exposure to PM10, NO2, NO and NOX, while higher exposure to NO2, NO and NOX was associated with lower SpO2/FiO2 ratios. In conclusion, after controlling for socioeconomic, demographic and health-related variables, we found evidence of a significant positive relationship between air pollution and mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 pneumonia. Additionally, inflammation (CRP) and gas exchange (SpO2/FiO2) in these patients were significantly related to exposure to air pollution.

Patient acceptable symptom state and OMERACT-OARSI set of responder criteria in joint replacement. Identification of cut-off values.

OBJECTIVE: To identify new cut-off values beyond which patients can be considered as satisfied or as responders through patient acceptable symptom state (PASS) and OMERACT-OARSI (Outcome Measures in Rheumatology-Osteoarthritis Research Society International) set of responder criteria in total joint replacement. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a 1-year prospective multicenter study of 861 patients, 510 with total knee replacement (TKR) and 351 with total hip prosthesis (THR). Pain and function data were collected by the reverse scoring option of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). PASS values were identified with the 25th centile estimation using an anchoring question about satisfaction with actual symptoms. OMERACT-OARSI set of responder criteria was based on a combination of absolute and relative change of pain, function and global patient's assessment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used as a complementary approach. RESULTS: The values for PASS were about 80 and 69 for pain and function in THR, while these values were 80 and 68 when using OMERACT-OARSI criteria. Regarding TKR, PASS values were about 75 and 67 in pain and function with both criteria. ROC values were slightly lower in all cases. PASS and OMERACT-OARSI values varied moderately across tertiles of baseline severity. CONCLUSION: With the provided data we can establish when a patient can be considered as satisfied/responder in joint replacement. The scores achieved at 1 year were very similar according to both criteria.

Utility of two biomarkers for directing care among patients with non-severe community-acquired pneumonia.

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the usefulness of two biomarkers-procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP)-in addition to the CURB-65 score for assessing the site of care and the etiology of non-severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We conducted a prospective observational study from April 1, 2006, to June 30, 2007, in a single teaching hospital in northern Spain among patients with non-severe CAP. In addition to collecting data needed to determine the CURB-65 score, microbial cultures were taken and levels of PCT and CRP were measured. We compared the prognostic accuracy of these biomarkers with the CURB-65 score to predict hospitalization and microbial etiology using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. A total of 344 patients with non-severe CAP were enrolled; 73 were admitted to the hospital and 271 were treated on an outpatient basis. An etiologic diagnostic was made for 44 %, with atypical pathogens predominating. Levels of PCT and CRP increased with increasing CURB-65 scores. Patients admitted to the hospital had higher PCT and CRP levels than outpatients (p < 0.001). For predicting hospitalization, PCT had a better area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.81) than the CURB-65 score alone (0.77). For PCT plus the CURB-65 score, the AUC increased significantly from 0.77 to 0.83. In patients with bacterial CAP, the biomarker levels were significantly higher than among patients with atypical or viral etiology (p < 0.001). PCT with a cut-off point of 0.15 ng/mL was the best predictor for bacterial etiology and for select patients eligible for outpatient care. In conclusion, levels of PCT and CRP positively correlate with increasing severity of CAP and may have a role in predicting both patients who can safely receive outpatient care and the microbial etiology in patients with low CURB-65 scores.

Score to identify the severity of adult patients with influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection at hospital admission.

The objective of this paper was to develop a prognostic index for severe complications among hospitalized patients with influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of 618 inpatients with 2009 H1N1 virus infection admitted to 36 Spanish hospitals between July 2009 and February 2010. Risk factors evaluated included host-related factors and clinical data at admission. We developed a composite index of severe in-hospital complications (SIHC), which included: mortality, mechanical ventilation, septic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and requirement for resuscitation maneuvers. Six factors were independently associated with SIHC: age >45 years, male sex, number of comorbidities, pneumonia, dyspnea, and confusion. From the ß parameter obtained in the multivariate model, a weight was assigned to each factor to compute the individual influenza risk score. The score shows an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.77. The SIHC rate was 1.9 % in the low-risk group, 10.3 % in the intermediate-risk group, and 29.6 % in the high-risk group. The odds ratio for complications was 21.8 for the high-risk group compared with the low-risk group. This easy-to-score influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection risk index accurately stratifies patients hospitalized for H1N1 virus infection into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups for SIHC.

Risk factors for clinical deterioration in patients admitted for COVID-19: A case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: There is controversy regarding the best predictors of clinical deterioration in COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: This work aims to identify predictors of risk factors for deterioration in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. METHODS DESIGN: Nested case-control study within a cohort. SETTING: 13 acute care centers of the Osakidetza-Basque Health Service. PARTICIPANTS: patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with clinical deterioration-defined as onset of severe ARDS, ICU admission, or death-were considered cases. Two controls were matched to each case based on age. Sociodemographic data; comorbidities; baseline treatment; symptoms; date of onset; previous consultations; and clinical, analytical, and radiological variables were collected. An explanatory model of clinical deterioration was created by means of conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 99 cases and 198 controls were included. According to the logistic regression analysis, the independent variables associated with clinical deterioration were: emergency department O2 saturation ≤90% (OR 16.6; 95%CI 4-68), pathological chest X-ray (OR 5.6; 95%CI 1.7-18.4), CRP > 100 mg/dL (OR 3.62; 95%CI 1.62-8), thrombocytopenia with <150,000 platelets (OR 4; 95%CI 1.84-8.6); and a medical history of acute myocardial infarction (OR 15.7; 95%CI, 3.29-75.09), COPD (OR 3.05; 95%CI 1.43-6.5), or HT (OR 2.21; 95%CI 1.11-4.4). The model's AUC was 0.86. On the univariate analysis, female sex and presence of dry cough and sore throat were associated with better clinical progress, but were not found to be significant on the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: The variables identified could be useful in clinical practice for the detection of patients at high risk of poor outcomes.

Development of a decision tree to assess the severity and prognosis of stable COPD.

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new method: a classification and regression tree (CART) based on easily accessible measures to predict mortality in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This was a prospective study of two independent prospective cohorts: a derivation cohort with 611 recruited patients and a validation cohort with 348 patients, all followed for 5 yrs. CART analysis was used to predict 5-yr mortality risk using the following covariates from the derivation cohort: age, % predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)), dyspnoea, physical activity, general health and number of hospital admissions for COPD exacerbations in the previous 2 yrs. Age (≥ 75 or <75 yrs) provided the first branch of the COPD-CART. The highest mortality risk (0.74) was seen in patients >75 yrs of age with higher levels of dyspnoea and FEV(1) <50% pred. Patients with the lowest risk of 5-yr mortality (0.04) were <55 yrs of age with FEV(1) >35% pred and one or no recent hospitalisations for COPD exacerbations. A simple decision tree that uses variables commonly gathered by physicians can provide a quick assessment of the severity of the disease, as measured by the risk of 5-yr mortality.

Impact of changes in physical activity on health-related quality of life among patients with COPD.

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether changes in regular physical activity (PA) affect health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 611 patients (mean age 67.2+/-8.4 yrs; forced expiratory volume in 1 s 49.7+/-14.6) completed the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) and the Medical Outcomes Short Form (SF-36) questionnaire. PA, defined as patients' self-reported regular walking times, was classified as low, moderate and high. After 5 yrs, 391 survivors completed these instruments again. After adjustment for relevant confounders, patients who reported low PA at baseline and who increased their PA over the study period improved their SGRQ and CRQ scores by 15.9 and 8.7 points, respectively. Patients who moved from moderate to high PA improved their SGRQ scores by 18.4 and their CRQ scores by 14.8. Slightly smaller increases were observed for patients who maintained a high level of PA throughout the study period. Maintaining a low level of PA or decreasing PA over the study period was associated with a significant HRQoL decline. Among COPD patients, a reduction in time spent engaging in PA or maintaining a low level may impair HRQoL, whereas an increase in PA can improve HRQoL parameters.