Associations between Minority Health Social Vulnerability Index Scores, Rurality, and Histoplasmosis Incidence, 8 US States.

To explore associations between histoplasmosis and race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and rurality, we conducted an in-depth analysis of social determinants of health and histoplasmosis in 8 US states. Using the Minority Health Social Vulnerability Index (MH SVI), we analyzed county-level histoplasmosis incidence (cases/100,000 population) from the 8 states by applying generalized linear mixed hurdle models. We found that histoplasmosis incidence was higher in counties with limited healthcare infrastructure and access as measured by the MH SVI and in more rural counties. Other social determinants of health measured by the MH SVI tool either were not significantly or were inconsistently associated with histoplasmosis incidence. Increased awareness of histoplasmosis, more accessible diagnostic tests, and investment in rural health services could address histoplasmosis-related health disparities.

Bimodal distribution of azole susceptibility in Sporothrix brasiliensis isolates in Brazil.

Sporothrix brasiliensis is an emerging zoonotic fungal pathogen that can be difficult to treat. Antifungal susceptibility testing was performed on the mold phase of a convenience sample of 61 Sporothrix spp. isolates from human and cat sporotrichosis cases in Brazil using the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute standard M38. A bimodal distribution of azole susceptibility was observed with 50% (28/56) of S. brasiliensis isolates showing elevated itraconazole minimum inhibitory concentrations ≥16 µg/mL. Phylogenetic analysis found the in vitro resistant isolates were not clonal and were distributed across three different S. brasiliensis clades. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis was performed to identify potential mechanisms of in vitro resistance. Two of the 28 resistant isolates (MIC ≥16 mg/L) had a polymorphism in the cytochrome P450 gene, cyp51, corresponding to the well-known G448S substitution inducing azole resistance in Aspergillus fumigatus. SNPs corresponding to other known mechanisms of azole resistance were not identified in the remaining 26 in vitro resistant isolates.

Integrating contact tracing and whole-genome sequencing to track the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: An observational and genomic study.

Background: Dog-mediated rabies is endemic across Africa causing thousands of human deaths annually. A One Health approach to rabies is advocated, comprising emergency post-exposure vaccination of bite victims and mass dog vaccination to break the transmission cycle. However, the impacts and cost-effectiveness of these components are difficult to disentangle. Methods: We combined contact tracing with whole-genome sequencing to track rabies transmission in the animal reservoir and spillover risk to humans from 2010 to 2020, investigating how the components of a One Health approach reduced the disease burden and eliminated rabies from Pemba Island, Tanzania. With the resulting high-resolution spatiotemporal and genomic data, we inferred transmission chains and estimated case detection. Using a decision tree model, we quantified the public health burden and evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions over a 10-year time horizon. Results: We resolved five transmission chains co-circulating on Pemba from 2010 that were all eliminated by May 2014. During this period, rabid dogs, human rabies exposures and deaths all progressively declined following initiation and improved implementation of annual islandwide dog vaccination. We identified two introductions to Pemba in late 2016 that seeded re-emergence after dog vaccination had lapsed. The ensuing outbreak was eliminated in October 2018 through reinstated islandwide dog vaccination. While post-exposure vaccines were projected to be highly cost-effective ($256 per death averted), only dog vaccination interrupts transmission. A combined One Health approach of routine annual dog vaccination together with free post-exposure vaccines for bite victims, rapidly eliminates rabies, is highly cost-effective ($1657 per death averted) and by maintaining rabies freedom prevents over 30 families from suffering traumatic rabid dog bites annually on Pemba island. Conclusions: A One Health approach underpinned by dog vaccination is an efficient, cost-effective, equitable, and feasible approach to rabies elimination, but needs scaling up across connected populations to sustain the benefits of elimination, as seen on Pemba, and for similar progress to be achieved elsewhere. Funding: Wellcome [207569/Z/17/Z, 095787/Z/11/Z, 103270/Z/13/Z], the UBS Optimus Foundation, the Department of Health and Human Services of the National Institutes of Health [R01AI141712] and the DELTAS Africa Initiative [Afrique One-ASPIRE/DEL-15-008] comprising a donor consortium of the African Academy of Sciences (AAS), Alliance for Accelerating Excellence in Science in Africa (AESA), the New Partnership for Africa's Development Planning and Coordinating (NEPAD) Agency, Wellcome [107753/A/15/Z], Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Small Grant 2017 [GR000892] and the UK government. The rabies elimination demonstration project from 2010-2015 was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP49679]. Whole-genome sequencing was partially supported from APHA by funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Scottish government and Welsh government under projects SEV3500 and SE0421.

Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence.

How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.

Infectious disease in an era of global change.

The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.

How geographic access to care shapes disease burden: The current impact of post-exposure prophylaxis and potential for expanded access to prevent human rabies deaths in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is highly effective at preventing human rabies deaths, however access to PEP is limited in many rabies endemic countries. The 2018 decision by Gavi to add human rabies vaccine to its investment portfolio should expand PEP availability and reduce rabies deaths. We explore how geographic access to PEP impacts the rabies burden in Madagascar and the potential benefits of improved provisioning. METHODOLOGY & PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use spatially resolved data on numbers of bite patients seeking PEP across Madagascar and estimates of travel times to the closest clinic providing PEP (N = 31) in a Bayesian regression framework to estimate how geographic access predicts reported bite incidence. We find that travel times strongly predict reported bite incidence across the country. Using resulting estimates in an adapted decision tree, we extrapolate rabies deaths and reporting and find that geographic access to PEP shapes burden sub-nationally. We estimate 960 human rabies deaths annually (95% Prediction Intervals (PI): 790-1120), with PEP averting an additional 800 deaths (95% PI: 640-970) each year. Under these assumptions, we find that expanding PEP to one clinic per district (83 additional clinics) could reduce deaths by 19%, but even with all major primary clinics provisioning PEP (1733 additional clinics), we still expect substantial rabies mortality. Our quantitative estimates are most sensitive to assumptions of underlying rabies exposure incidence, but qualitative patterns of the impacts of travel times and expanded PEP access are robust. CONCLUSIONS & SIGNIFICANCE: PEP is effective at preventing rabies deaths, and in the absence of strong surveillance, targeting underserved populations may be the most equitable way to provision PEP. Given the potential for countries to use Gavi funding to expand access to PEP in the coming years, this framework could be used as a first step to guide expansion and improve targeting of interventions in similar endemic settings where PEP access is geographically restricted and baseline data on rabies risk is lacking. While better PEP access should save many lives, improved outreach, surveillance, and dog vaccination will be necessary, and if rolled out with Gavi investment, could catalyze progress towards achieving zero rabies deaths.

Monitoring for outbreak-associated excess mortality in an African city: Detection limits in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

OBJECTIVES: Quantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers. DESIGN: Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be for being detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak. RESULTS: The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 161% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detect anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in Antananarivo. CONCLUSIONS: Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information.

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa.

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (for example, warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis. We synthesized factors hypothesized to drive the pace and burden of this pandemic in SSA during the period from 25 February to 20 December 2020, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare capacity, intervention efforts and human mobility dimensions. Large diversity in the probable drivers indicates a need for caution in interpreting analyses that aggregate data across low- and middle-income settings. Our simulation shows that climatic variation between SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories; however, heterogeneity in connectivity, although rarely considered, is likely an important contributor to variance in the pace of viral spread across SSA. Our synthesis points to the potential benefits of context-specific adaptation of surveillance systems during the ongoing pandemic. In particular, characterizing patterns of severity over age will be a priority in settings with high comorbidity burdens and poor access to care. Understanding the spatial extent of outbreaks warrants emphasis in settings where low connectivity could drive prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks resulting in extended stress to health systems.

Lessons Learned and Paths Forward for Rabies Dog Vaccination in Madagascar: A Case Study of Pilot Vaccination Campaigns in Moramanga District.

Canine rabies causes an estimated 60,000 human deaths per year, but these deaths are preventable through post-exposure prophylaxis of people and vaccination of domestic dogs. Dog vaccination campaigns targeting 70% of the population are effective at interrupting transmission. Here, we report on lessons learned during pilot dog vaccination campaigns in the Moramanga District of Madagascar. We compare two different vaccination strategies: a volunteer-driven effort to vaccinate dogs in two communes using static point vaccination and continuous vaccination as part of routine veterinary services. We used dog age data from the campaigns to estimate key demographic parameters and to simulate different vaccination strategies. Overall, we found that dog vaccination was feasible and that most dogs were accessible to vaccination. The static-point campaign achieved higher coverage but required more resources and had a limited geographic scope compared to the continuous delivery campaign. Our modeling results suggest that targeting puppies through community-based vaccination efforts could improve coverage. We found that mass dog vaccination is feasible and can achieve high coverage in Madagascar; however, context-specific strategies and an investment in dog vaccination as a public good will be required to move the country towards elimination.

Detection and Characterization of Leptospira Infection and Exposure in Rats on the Caribbean Island of Saint Kitts.

In this study, we detected and characterized Leptospira infection and exposure in rats on the Caribbean island of Saint Kitts for the first time. We detected Leptospira infection in 17/29 (59%), 14/29 (48)%, and 11/29 (38)% of rats by RT-PCR, culture, and immunofluorescence assay, respectively. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) and analysis and serogrouping of 17 Leptospira strains isolated from rats revealed their close relationship with L. interrogans serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae (n = 10) and L. borgpetersenii serogroup Ballum (n = 7). WGS, serogrouping, and additional PCR tests on rat kidneys confirmed mixed infections with L. interrogans and L. borgpetersenii in the kidneys of three rats. Microscopic agglutination test (MAT) was positive for 25/29 (87%) of the rats tested, and the response was restricted to serovars Icterohaemorrhagiae {24/29(83%)}, Mankarso {4/29(14%)}, Copenhageni {4/29(14%)}, Grippotyphosa {2/29(7%)}, and Wolffi {1/29(3%)}. Interestingly, there was no agglutinating antibody response to serovar Ballum. We observed a similar pattern in the serologic response using Leptospira isolates obtained from this study with each of the rat sera, with strong response to L. interrogans isolates but minimal reactivity to L. borgpetersenii isolates. Our findings suggest the use of multiple complementary diagnostic tests for Leptospira surveillance and diagnosis to improve the accuracy of the data.

Enabling animal rabies diagnostic in low-access areas: Sensitivity and specificity of a molecular diagnostic test from cerebral tissue dried on filter paper.

Rabies is a lethal zoonotic encephalomyelitis that causes an estimated 59,000 human deaths yearly worldwide. Although developing countries of Asia and Africa bear the heaviest burden, surveillance and disease detection in these countries is often hampered by the absence of local laboratories able to diagnose rabies and/or the difficulties of sample shipment from low-access areas to national reference laboratories. Filter papers offer a convenient cost-effective alternative for the sampling, shipment, and storage of biological materials for the diagnosis of many pathogens including rabies virus, yet the properties of diagnostic tests using this support have not been evaluated thoroughly. Sensitivity and specificity of molecular diagnosis of rabies infection using a reverse transcription followed by a hemi-nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-hn-PCR) either directly on brain tissue or using brain tissue dried on filter paper were assessed on 113 suspected field animal samples in comparison to the direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT) recommended by the World Health Organization as one of the reference tests for rabies diagnosis. Impact of the duration of the storage was also evaluated. The sensitivity and the specificity of RT-hn-PCR i) on brain tissue were 96.6% (95% CI: [88.1-99.6]) and 92.7% (95% CI: [82.4-98.0]) respectively and ii) on brain tissue dried on filter paper 100% (95% CI: [93.8-100.0]) and 90.9% (95% CI: [80.0-97.0]) respectively. No loss of sensitivity of RT-hn-PCR on samples of brain tissue dried on filter paper left 7 days at ambient temperature was detected indicating that this method would enable analyzing impregnated filter papers sent to the national reference laboratory at ambient temperature within a 1-week shipment time. It could therefore be an effective alternative to facilitate storage and shipment of samples from low-access areas to enhance and expand rabies surveillance.

High variation expected in the pace and burden of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa.

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (e.g., warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis accounting for factors that may offset the effects of climate and demography. Here, we synthesize factors hypothesized to shape the pace of this pandemic and its burden as it moves across SSA, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare and intervention capacity, and human mobility dimensions of risk. We find large scale diversity in probable drivers, such that outcomes are likely to be highly variable among SSA countries. While simulation shows that extensive climatic variation among SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories, heterogeneity in connectivity is likely to play a large role in shaping the pace of viral spread. The prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks expected in weakly connected settings may result in extended stress to health systems. In addition, the observed variability in comorbidities and access to care will likely modulate the severity of infection: We show that even small shifts in the infection fatality ratio towards younger ages, which are likely in high risk settings, can eliminate the protective effect of younger populations. We highlight countries with elevated risk of 'slow pace', high burden outbreaks. Empirical data on the spatial extent of outbreaks within SSA countries, their patterns in severity over age, and the relationship between epidemic pace and health system disruptions are urgently needed to guide efforts to mitigate the high burden scenarios explored here.

Healthcare utilization, provisioning of post-exposure prophylaxis, and estimation of human rabies burden in Madagascar.

In Madagascar, dog-mediated rabies has been endemic for over a century, however there is little data on its incidence or impact. We collected data over a 16-month period on provisioning of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) at a focal clinic in the Moramanga District and determined the rabies status of biting animals using clinical and laboratory diagnosis. We find that animal rabies cases are widespread, and clinic-based triage and investigation are effective ways to increase detection of rabies exposures and to rule out non-cases. A high proportion of rabies-exposed persons from Moramanga sought (84%) and completed PEP (90% of those that initiated PEP), likely reflecting the access and free provisioning of PEP in the district. Current clinic vial sharing practices demonstrate the potential for intradermal administration of PEP in endemic African settings, reducing vaccine use by 50% in comparison to intramuscular administration. A high proportion of PEP demand was attributed to rabies cases, with approximately 20% of PEP administered to probable rabies exposures and an additional 20% to low-to-no risk contacts with confirmed/probable animal or human cases. Using a simplified decision tree and our data on rabies exposure status and health-seeking behavior, we estimated an annual incidence of 42-110 rabies exposures and 1-3 deaths per 100,000 persons annually. Extrapolating to Madagascar, we estimate an annual burden of 282-745 human rabies deaths with current PEP provisioning averting 1499-3958 deaths each year. Data from other clinics and districts are needed to improve these estimates, particularly given that PEP availability is currently limited to only 31 clinics in the country. A combined strategy of mass dog vaccination, enhanced surveillance, and expanded access to PEP along with more judicious guidelines for administration could effectively reduce and eventually eliminate the burden of rabies in Madagascar.

Pathogen Exposure in Cattle at the Livestock-Wildlife Interface.

Land use is an important driver of variation in human infectious disease risk, but less is known about how land use affects disease risk in livestock. To understand how land use is associated with disease risk in livestock, we examined patterns of pathogen exposure in cattle across two livestock ranching systems in rural Kenya: private ranches with low- to medium-intensity cattle production and high wildlife densities, and group ranches with high-intensity cattle production and low wildlife densities. We surveyed cattle from six ranches for three pathogens: Brucella spp., bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and Leptospira serovar Hardjo. We found that exposure risk for Leptospira was higher on private ranches than on group ranches, but there was no difference in exposure by ranch type for Brucella or BVDV. We hypothesize that variation in livestock and wildlife contact patterns between ranch types may be driving the pattern observed for Leptospira exposure and that the different relationships we found between exposure risk and ranch type by pathogen may be explained by differences in transmission mode. Overall, our results suggest that wildlife-livestock contact patterns may play a key role in shaping pathogen transmission to livestock and that the magnitude of such effects likely depend on characteristics of the pathogen in question.

Neospora caninum is the leading cause of bovine fetal loss in British Columbia, Canada.

The protozoan pathogen Neospora caninum is recognized as a leading cause of infectious abortions in cattle worldwide. To evaluate the impact of neosporosis on dairy and beef herd production, a retrospective, longitudinal study was performed to identify the impact of neosporosis alongside other causes of fetal abortion in British Columbia, Canada. Retrospective analysis of pathology records of bovine fetal submissions submitted to the Animal Health Centre, Abbotsford, British Columbia, a provincial veterinary diagnostic laboratory, from January 2007 to July 2013 identified 182 abortion cases (passive surveillance). From July 2013 to May 2014, an active surveillance program identified a further 54 abortion cases from dairy farmers in the Upper Fraser Valley, British Columbia. Of the total 236 fetal submissions analyzed, N. caninum was diagnosed in 18.2% of cases, making it the most commonly identified infectious agent associated with fetal loss. During active surveillance, N. caninum was associated with 41% of fetuses submitted compared to 13.3% during passive surveillance (p<0.001). Breed of dam was significantly associated with N. caninum diagnosis, with a higher prevalence in dairy versus beef breeds, and fetuses of 3-6 months gestational age had the highest prevalence of N. caninum. There was no significant association with dam parity. N. caninum was diagnosed in every year except 2009 and cases were geographically widespread throughout the province. Furthermore, the active surveillance program demonstrates that N. caninum is highly prevalent in the Upper Fraser Valley and is a major causal agent of production losses in this dairy intensive region.