RESUMO
Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models were generated for ten major groundnut growing locations of the India to predict the number of generations of Spodoptera litura (Fab.) using Growing Degree Days approach during three future climate viz., Near (NF), Distant (DF) and Very Distant (VDF) periods and were compared over 1976-2005 baseline period (BL). Projections indicate significant increase in Tmax (0.7-4.7 °C) and Tmin (0.7-5.1 °C) in NF, DF and VDF periods under the four RCP scenarios at the ten groundnut growing locations. Higher percent increase of the number of generations of S. litura was predicted to occur in VDF (6-38%) over baseline, followed by DF (5-22%) and NF (4-9%) periods with reduction of generation time (5-26%) across the four RCP scenarios. Reduction of crop duration was higher (12-22 days) in long duration groundnut than in medium and short duration groundnut. Decrease in crop duration was higher in VDF (12.1-20.8 days) than DF (8.26-13.15 days) and NF (4.46-6.15 days) climate change periods under RCP 8.5 scenario. Increase in number of generations of S. litura was predicted even with altered crop duration of groundnut. Among locations, more number of generations of S. litura with reduced generation time are likely at Vridhachalam and Tirupathi locations. Geographical location (74-77%) and climate period (15-19%), together explained over 90 percent of the total variation in the number of generations and generation time of S. litura. These findings suggest that the incidence of S. litura on groundnut could be higher in future.