Introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) primary testing in the age of HPV vaccination: projected impact on colposcopy services in Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the demand for colposcopy in the Cervical Screening Wales programme after the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening, which coincided with the start of screening of women vaccinated against HPV types 16/18. DESIGN: The study used a computational model that assigns screening and screening-related colposcopy events to birth cohorts in individual calendar years. SETTING: Cervical Screening Wales. POPULATION: Women aged 25-64 years from birth cohorts 1953-2007. METHODS AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated the numbers of colposcopies and high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesions (CIN2+) within Cervical Screening Wales in 2018-32, using official population projections for Wales and published estimates of the effects of HPV screening and vaccination. RESULTS: Vaccination will reduce the number of colposcopies by 10% within the first 3-4 years after the national roll-out of HPV screening, and by about 20% thereafter. The number of screening colposcopies is estimated to increase from 6100 in 2018 and peak at 8000 (+31%) in 2021, assuming current screening intervals are maintained. The numbers of CIN2+ lesions follow similar patterns, stabilising at around 1000 diagnoses per year by 2026, approximately 60% lower than at present. Extending the screening intervals to 5 years for all women shows similar trends but introduces peaks and troughs over the years. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination will not fully prevent an increase in colposcopies and detected CIN2+ lesions during the first 2-3 years of HPV-based screening but the numbers are expected to decrease substantially after 5-6 years. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: HPV-based cervical screening will initially increase colposcopy referral. In 6 years, this increase will be reversed, partly by HPV vaccination.

High-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in human papillomavirus self-sampling of screening non-attenders.

BACKGROUND: Self-sampling for human papillomavirus (HPV) offered to women who do not participate in cervical cancer screening is an increasingly popular method to increase screening coverage. The rationale behind self-sampling is that unscreened women harbour a high proportion of undetected precancer lesions. Here, we compare the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (⩾CIN2) detection rate between non-attenders who participated in self-sampling and women attending routine screening. METHODS: A total of 23 632 women who were qualified as non-attenders in the Copenhagen Region were invited for HPV-based self-sampling. Of these, 4824 women returned a self-sample, and HPV-positive women were referred for cytology and HPV co-testing as follow-up. The entire cohort and a reference cohort (3347 routinely screened women) were followed for histopathology confirmed ⩾CIN2. Odds ratio (OR) and the relative positive predictive value of ⩾CIN2 detection between the two populations were estimated. RESULTS: Women participating in self-sampling had a higher ⩾CIN2 detection than women undergoing routine cytology-based screening (OR=1.83, 95% CI: 1.21-2.77) and a similar detection as routinely screened women tested with cytology and HPV testing (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.75-1.40). The positive predictive value for ⩾CIN2 was higher in screening non-attenders than in routinely HPV- and cytology-screened screened women (36.5% vs 25.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Self-sampling offered to non-attenders showed higher detection rates for ⩾CIN2 than routine cytology-based screening, and similar detection rates as HPV and cytology co-testing. This reinforces the importance of self-sampling for screening non-attenders in organised cervical cancer screening.

Prevalence of Human Papillomavirus in Self-Taken Samples from Screening Nonattenders.

The Copenhagen Self-Sampling Initiative (CSi) has shown how human papillomavirus (HPV)-based self-sampling can be used to increase screening participation among 23,632 nonattenders in the Capital Region of Denmark. In this study, we describe HPV prevalence and genotype frequency in 4,824 self-samples as determined by three HPV assays (the CLART, Onclarity, and Hybrid Capture 2 [HC2] assays) and compare the results with those for physician-taken follow-up samples. The HPV self-sample findings were also compared to the findings for a reference population of 3,347 routinely screened women from the Horizon study, which had been undertaken in the same screening laboratory. Nonattenders had an HPV prevalence of 11.3% as determined by the CLART assay, which was lower than that for women from the Horizon study (18.5%). One-third of the CSi women who tested HPV positive by self-sampling tested HPV negative on the physician-taken follow-up sample. The CLART and Onclarity assays agreed on 64% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60 to 68%) of the HPV-positive self-taken samples. When the HC2 assay results were added into a three-way comparison, the level of agreement decreased to 27% (95% CI, 24 to 29%). Our findings suggest that further validation of HPV assays on self-taken samples is needed for optimal HPV detection and correct clinical management of HPV-positive women.

Referral population studies underestimate differences between human papillomavirus assays in primary cervical screening.

OBJECTIVE: We studied how representative cytologically abnormal women ("referral populations") are with respect to uncovering differences between human papillomavirus (HPV) assays in the primary screening where most women are cytologically normal. METHODS: A total of 4997 women were tested with SurePath® cytology, and Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2), cobas, CLART and APTIMA HPV assays. Women with positive test results were offered a follow-up. For all detected HPV infections and HPV-positive high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (≥CIN2), we studied the distributions of assay-specific signal strengths in the baseline samples as documented by the assays' automatically generated reports. We calculated the likelihood of test result discordance as the proportion of HPV-positive samples that were not confirmed by all four assays. RESULTS: Median signal strengths for HPV infections were weaker in normal than abnormal cytology (P<.001, adjusted for women's age, multiple infections and the reason for taking the sample). For HC2, they were RLU/CO 11.0 (interquartile range, IQR: 3.3-52.8) vs 124.2 (IQR: 22.8-506.9), respectively; for cobas, Ct 33.5 (IQR: 29.6-37.5) vs 26.9 (IQR: 23.7-31.3), respectively; for APTIMA, S/CO 10.2 (IQR: 5.8-11.3) vs 11.1 (IQR: 9.4-15.5), respectively. Similar patterns were observed for HPV-positive ≥CIN2. The four HPV assays more frequently returned discordant test results in normal than in abnormal cytology. Relative frequency of discordance in detecting HPV infections was 0.39 (95% confidence interval: 0.33-0.48) for abnormal vs normal cytology. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that referral population studies, by not including sufficient numbers of cytology normal women, underestimate the differences between HPV assays that would become apparent in primary screening.

Hybrid Capture 2 and cobas human papillomavirus assays perform similarly on SurePath samples from women with abnormalities.

OBJECTIVE: In two laboratories (Departments of Pathology, Copenhagen University Hospitals of Herlev and Hvidovre), we compared cobas and Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) human papillomavirus (HPV) assays using SurePath® samples from women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) at ≥30 years and women after treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). METHODS: Samples from 566 women with ASCUS and 411 women after treatment were routinely tested with HC2 and, thereafter, with cobas. Histological outcomes were retrieved from the Danish Pathology Data Base. We calculated the overall agreement between the assays, and compared their sensitivity and specificity for ≥CIN2. RESULTS: In women with ASCUS, HC2 and cobas testing results were similar in the two laboratories. The overall agreement was 91% (95% CI, 88-93). After CIN treatment, the overall agreement was 87% (95% CI, 82-91) at Herlev and 88% (95% CI, 82-92) at Hvidovre. There were no significant differences in the sensitivity for ≥CIN2 between the two tests [Herlev, 98% (95% CI, 89-100) for HC2 versus 94% (95% CI, 82-99) for cobas; Hvidovre, 97% (95% CI, 83-100) for HC2 versus 100% (95% CI, 88-100) for cobas]. The differences were also not significant for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: In women with the studied well-defined clinical indications for HPV testing, cobas and HC2 performed similarly in terms of the detection of HPV and ≥CIN2.

Impact of technology on cytology outcome in cervical cancer screening of young and older women.

Little is known about age-dependent variation in outcomes of cervical cytology with modern technologies. This population-based study evaluated age-dependent changes after routine implementation of ThinPrep and SurePath technology in two independent laboratories, and controlled for time trends in a third laboratory using manually read conventional cytology continually. Data were collected from the Danish National Health Care Registers. For each laboratory, we compared proportions of abnormal cytology defined as atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse (ASCUS+) by age and technology phase. The study included 489,960 cytological samples with no recent abnormality from women aged 23-59 years, routinely screened between 1998 and 2007. Implementation of SurePath liquid-based cytology (LBC) was followed by an increase in abnormal cytology in women aged 23-29 years from 4.6 to 6.1%, relative proportion (RP): 1.31 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.61], and a decrease in women aged 45-59 years from 2.9 to 2.0%, RP: 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60-0.83). Implementation of ThinPrep LBC was followed by a decrease in abnormal cytology both in women aged 23-29 years from 7.7 to 6.8%, RP: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.78-1.02) and in women aged 45-59 years from 3.4 to 1.0%, RP: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.24-0.37). With implementation of imaging-assisted reading, regardless of the brand of technology, the proportion of abnormality increased by around 30% in all age groups (range from 19 to 41%). In the laboratory with unchanged technology no trends in abnormality proportions were observed. The impact of LBC implementation on cytological abnormality proportions varied considerably across age groups.

What women want. Women's preferences for the management of low-grade abnormal cervical screening tests: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: If human papillomavirus (HPV) testing will replace cytology in primary cervical screening, the frequency of low-grade abnormal screening tests will double. Several available alternatives for the follow-up of low-grade abnormal screening tests have similar outcomes. In this situation, women's preferences have been proposed as a guide for management decisions. OBJECTIVES: To determine women's preferences for the follow-up of low-grade cervical screening abnormalities. SEARCH STRATEGY: Using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms, PubMed was searched for articles published up to December 2010. The reference lists of the retrieved studies were consulted. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies asking women to state a preference between active follow-up and observation for the management of low-grade abnormalities on screening cytology or HPV tests. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Information on study design, participants and outcomes was retrieved using a prespecified form. Studies were sorted by design. MAIN RESULTS: Thirteen studies were included in the review. In all five studies that surveyed women with abnormal tests before any management had started, two-thirds preferred active follow-up, predominantly as immediate colposcopy, to observation, predominantly as repeated Pap smears. In all but two studies testing other situations, women more often expressed a preference for active follow-up than for observation; however, women appeared to be somewhat more willing to accept observation if reassured of the low risk of cervical cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Even for low-grade abnormal cervical tests, women tend to prefer active management strategies. It may be a challenge to meet their expectations of optimal follow-up when HPV testing is used in primary screening.

Incomplete follow-up of positive HPV tests: overview of randomised controlled trials on primary cervical screening.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that adjustment for incomplete compliance with follow-up in women with positive human papillomavirus (HPV) tests would be appropriate for estimating the true sensitivity of cervical screening with HPV testing. We assessed the compliance and its impact on > or =CIN3 detection in all eight randomised controlled trials (RCT) with published baseline-round data. METHODS: We extracted data on recommended follow-up procedures, follow-up compliance, and > or =CIN3 detection for both arms of each RCT, and assessed their correlation. RESULTS: Compliance with a direct referral for colposcopy was around 90% in all RCTs, whereas compliance with repeated testing among HPV-positive/cytology-negative women was around 60% in three RCTs and 73% in one RCT. Detection of > or =CIN3 was significantly increased in two out of six RCTs with reported data. The correlation between compliance with follow-up in HPV-positive women and relative > or =CIN3 detection was 0.48 (P=0.33). CONCLUSION: There is at present scant evidence to support the view that the measured sensitivity of HPV screening is a simple reflection of compliance with follow-up. Adjustment of measured cervical intraepithelial neoplasia detection on the basis of compliance data may not always be justifiable, and if adjustment is made, it should be used very judiciously.

The impact of healthcare costs in the last year of life and in all life years gained on the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening.

It is under debate whether healthcare costs related to death and in life years gained (LysG) due to life saving interventions should be included in economic evaluations. We estimated the impact of including these costs on cost-effectiveness of cancer screening. We obtained health insurance, home care, nursing homes, and mortality data for 2.1 million inhabitants in the Netherlands in 1998-1999. Costs related to death were approximated by the healthcare costs in the last year of life (LastYL), by cause and age of death. Costs in LYsG were estimated by calculating the healthcare costs in any life year. We calculated the change in cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) if unrelated healthcare costs in the LastYL or in LYsG would be included. Costs in the LastYL were on average 33% higher for persons dying from cancer than from any cause. Including costs in LysG increased the CER by 4040 euro in women, and by 4100 euro in men. Of these, 660 euro in women, and 890 euro in men, were costs in the LastYL. Including unrelated healthcare costs in the LastYL or in LYsG will change the comparative cost-effectiveness of healthcare programmes. The CERs of cancer screening programmes will clearly increase, with approximately 4000 euro. However, because of the favourable CER's, including unrelated healthcare costs will in general have limited policy implications.

Concordant testing results between various human papillomavirus assays in primary cervical cancer screening: systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) assays are increasingly used for primary cervical screening and HPV-vaccination-effect monitoring. We undertook a systematic literature review to determine the concordance in positive test results (i.e. detection of HPV infections) between Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and other assays. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase and Scopus for studies of primary screening with HC2 and one or more assays, with cross-tabulated testing results for the assays. Two authors applied inclusion criteria and three authors extracted data from included studies. For each inter-assay comparison, we calculated the concordance by comparing the number of concordant samples with the number of samples that tested positive on at least one assay. RESULTS: Sixteen studies fulfilled inclusion criteria, comparing nine assays to HC2, and including 392 to 9451 patients each. The calculated concordance varied between 48% and 69% for HC2 and APTIMA, Cobas, Abbott RealTime, Cervista, GP5+/6+, CLART, BD HPV test, Amplicor and Linear Array, i.e. 31%-52% of all positive tests on any pair of compared assays were discordant. Although modest variation in the degree of concordance with HC2 was suggested for particular assays, the numbers of studies per assay were generally low. No pronounced systematic patterns were observed by study (e.g. liquid medium) or population characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The ten commercially available assays do not detect the same HPV infections. Even in the most favourable case, the two assays provided discordant test results in 31% of all detected infections.

[The 1996 revision of the Dutch cervical cancer screening programme: increased coverage, fewer repeat smears and less opportunistic screening]. / Herziening bevolkingsonderzoek op baarmoederhalskanker 1996: hogere dekkingsgraad, minder herhalingsuitstrijkjes en minder opportunistische screening.

OBJECTIVE: Comparison of the indicators of effectiveness and efficiency of the Dutch national cervical cancerscreening programme in 2003 and 1994, the last year before implementation of important changes in the medical and organisational guidelines. DESIGN: Descriptive. METHOD: Data on all Pap smears made in 1994 and 2003 were retrieved from the Pathologic Anatomical National Automated Archive (PALGA), together with the matching cytological and histological follow-up until April 2004. In order to calculate the 5-year coverage, the number of women that had had a smear taken was placed in the numerator and divided by the number of women that had been invited for the screening programme during those 5 years. RESULTS: The 5-year coverage in the age range 30-64 years increased from 69 in 1994 to 77% in 2003. The percentage of smears resulting in a recommendation for a repeat smear decreased from 10 to 2. The percentage of timely compliance with recommendations for a repeat smear increased from 47 to 86, while that of smears with an immediate referral recommendation remained the same (about go). There was a sharp decrease in screening outside of the target-age range and screening with too short an interval. As a consequence, despite the higher coverage, the total number of smears decreased. CONCLUSION: The changes in the Dutch cervical cancerscreening programme in 1996 with regard to participation, the number of and compliance with recommendations for repeat smears, and screening activity outside of the target group were accompanied by significant improvements in agreement with the goals of the revision. The potential consequences for the effectiveness of the screening programme (reduction of cervical cancer mortality) will become apparent in the years to come.

Quality of life and treatment costs in schizophrenic outpatients, treated with depot neuroleptics.

Study aim was 1) to find out the influences on quality of life (QoL) of chronic outpatients with schizophrenia; 2) to calculate Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY); and 3) to estimate direct 1-year treatment costs. In a 20% sample (100 males, 100 females) of schizophrenic outpatients from the Outpatients Clinic in Ljubljana, Slovenia receiving depot neuroleptics demographic, clinical, and treatment data were collected for the year 1996. The Krawiecka Scale, Global Assessment Scale (GAS), Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale, Rating Scale for Drug-Induced Akathisia, Rating Scale for Extrapyramidal Side Effects, Quality of Life Scale (QLS), EQ-5D and QALY were used. Multivariate linear regression was used with the QLS score as dependent variable. The patients were on average 44 years old and had been treated for 14 years. The average GAS score was 70. GAS was positively related to the QLS score while the parkinsonism score was inversely correlated with QLS. The patients can expect to live for 10. 20 more QALY on average. The QoL on the EQ-5D scale was 0.73. The annual direct treatment costs amounted to $216,216 in 1996 prices. In well-adjusted chronic patients with schizophrenia the QoL seems to depend mostly on their psychosocial performance and side effects. Although rare, re-hospitalisations accounted for one-half of all treatment expenses.