Primary Care Telemedicine and Care Continuity: Implications for Timeliness and Short-term Follow-up Healthcare.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of telemedicine by a patient's own primary care provider (PCP) versus another available PCP is understudied. OBJECTIVE: Examine the association between primary care visit modality with timeliness and follow-up in-person healthcare, including variation by visits with the patient's own PCP versus another PCP. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study including primary care visits in a large, integrated delivery system in 2022. MEASURES: Outcomes included timeliness (visit completed within 7 days of scheduling) and in-person follow-up (PCP visits, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations) within 7 days of the index PCP visit. Logistic regression measured the association between visit modality (in-person, video, and audio-only telemedicine) with the patient's own PCP or another PCP and outcomes, adjusting for characteristics. KEY RESULTS: Among 4,817,317 primary care visits, 59% were in-person, 27% audio-only, and 14% video telemedicine. Most (71.3%) were with the patient's own PCP. Telemedicine visits were timelier, with modality having a larger association for visits with patient's own PCP versus another PCP (P < 0.001). For visits with patient's own PCPs, return office visit rates were 1.2% for in-person, 5.3% for video, and 6.1% for audio-only. For another PCP, rates were 2.2% for in-person, 7.3% for video, and 8.1% for audio. Follow-up ED visits ranged from 1.4% (in-person) to 1.6% (audio-only) with own PCP, compared to 1.9% (in-person) to 2.3% (audio-only) with another PCP. Differences in return office and ED visits between in-person and telemedicine were larger for visits with another PCP compared to their own PCP (P < 0.001). Follow-up hospitalizations were rare, ranging from 0.19% (in-person with own PCP) to 0.32% (video with another PCP). CONCLUSION: Differences in return office and ED visits between in-person and telemedicine were larger when patients saw a less familiar PCP compared to their own PCP, reinforcing the importance of care continuity.

Downstream Emergency Department and Hospital Utilization Comparably Low Following In-Person Versus Telemedicine Primary Care for High-Risk Conditions.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine use expanded greatly during the COVID-19 pandemic. More data is needed to understand how this shift may impact other venues of acute care delivery. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the association of visit modality (telephone, video, or office) and downstream emergency department (ED) and hospital visits among primary care visits for acute, time-sensitive conditions. DESIGN: Observational study of patient-scheduled primary care telemedicine and office visits for acute conditions (cardiac, gastrointestinal, neurologic, musculoskeletal, and head and neck) in a large, integrated healthcare delivery system. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with a new self-booked primary care appointment for an eligible acute condition from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022 (with no primary care, ED, or hospital visits in prior 30 days). INTERVENTIONS: Visit modality, including office, video, or telephone. MAIN MEASURES: Seven-day ED and hospital utilization, adjusted for patient and visit characteristics. KEY RESULTS: Among 258,958 primary care visits by 239,240 adult patients, 57.7% were telemedicine visits; of these, 72.4% were telephone and 27.6% were video. Telephone visits were the timeliest, with over 70% of visits scheduled within 1 day of booking. Rates of 7-day ED utilization were low, and varied by condition group, with cardiac visits having the highest rates (4.8%) and musculoskeletal visits having the lowest (0.8%). There was less than a 1% absolute difference in ED use by visit modality for all condition types; however, telephone visits were associated with slightly higher rates than video visits. The 7-day hospitalization rate was less than 1% and observed between visit type differences varied by clinical condition. CONCLUSIONS: Among office, telephone, and video visits in primary care for potentially high-risk, time-sensitive conditions, downstream ED and hospital use were uncommon. ED utilization was lower for video visits than telephone visits, although telephone visits were timelier and may offer a safe and accessible option for acute care.

An all-inclusive model for predicting invasive bacterial infection in febrile infants age 7-60 days.

BACKGROUND: Invasive bacterial infections (IBIs) in febrile infants are rare but potentially devastating. We aimed to derive and validate a predictive model for IBI among febrile infants age 7-60 days. METHODS: Data were abstracted retrospectively from electronic records of 37 emergency departments (EDs) for infants with a measured temperature >=100.4 F who underwent an ED evaluation with blood and urine cultures. Models to predict IBI were developed and validated respectively using a random 80/20 dataset split, including 10-fold cross-validation. We used precision recall curves as the classification metric. RESULTS: Of 4411 eligible infants with a mean age of 37 days, 29% had characteristics that would likely have excluded them from existing risk stratification protocols. There were 196 patients with IBI (4.4%), including 43 (1.0%) with bacterial meningitis. Analytic approaches varied in performance characteristics (precision recall range 0.04-0.29, area under the curve range 0.5-0.84), with the XGBoost model demonstrating the best performance (0.29, 0.84). The five most important variables were serum white blood count, maximum temperature, absolute neutrophil count, absolute band count, and age in days. CONCLUSION: A machine learning model (XGBoost) demonstrated the best performance in predicting a rare outcome among febrile infants, including those excluded from existing algorithms. IMPACT: Several models for the risk stratification of febrile infants have been developed. There is a need for a preferred comprehensive model free from limitations and algorithm exclusions that accurately predicts IBIs. This is the first study to derive an all-inclusive predictive model for febrile infants aged 7-60 days in a community ED sample with IBI as a primary outcome. This machine learning model demonstrates potential for clinical utility in predicting IBI.

Cross-Sectional Association of Patient Language and Patient-Provider Language Concordance with Video Telemedicine Use Among Patients with Limited English Proficiency.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine's dramatic increase during the COVID-19 pandemic elevates the importance of addressing patient-care gaps in telemedicine, especially for patients with limited English proficiency. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of patient language and patient-provider language concordance with telemedicine visit type (video versus telephone visit). DESIGN: Cross-sectional automated data study of patient-scheduled primary care telemedicine appointments from March 16, 2020, to October 31, 2020. SETTING: Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. PARTICIPANTS: All 22,427 completed primary care telemedicine visits scheduled by 13,764 patients with limited English proficiency via the patient portal. MEASUREMENTS: Cross-sectional association of electronic health record-documented patient language (Spanish as referent) and patient-provider language concordance with patients' choice of a video (versus telephone) visit, accounting for patient sociodemographics, technology access, and technology familiarity factors. RESULTS: Of all patient-scheduled visits, 34.5% (n = 7747) were video visits. The top three patient languages were Spanish (42.4%), Cantonese (16.9%), and Mandarin (10.3%). Adjusting for sociodemographic and technology access and familiarity factors and compared to patients speaking Spanish, video visit use was higher among patients speaking Cantonese (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.18-1.52), Mandarin (OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.16-1.52), or Vietnamese (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.09-1.47), but lower among patients speaking Punjabi (OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.62-0.91). Language concordance was associated with lower video visit use (OR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.80-0.93) and moderated associations of speaking Spanish, Cantonese, and Korean with video visit use. In addition, for all language groups, those with prior video visit use were more likely to re-use video visits compared to those with no prior use (p < .05 for all languages except Hindi with p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Among linguistically diverse patients with limited English proficiency, video telemedicine use differed by specific language. Disaggregating patient subpopulation data is necessary for identifying those at greatest risk of being negatively impacted by the digital divide.

Bilateral Emboli and Highest Heart Rate Predict Hospitalization of Emergency Department Patients With Acute, Low-Risk Pulmonary Embolism.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Some patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) will suffer adverse clinical outcomes despite being low risk by clinical decision rules. Emergency physician decisionmaking processes regarding which low-risk patients require hospitalization are unclear. Higher heart rate (HR) or embolic burden may increase short-term mortality risk, and we hypothesized that these variables would be associated with an increased likelihood of hospitalization for patients designated as low risk by the PE Severity Index. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 461 adult emergency department (ED) patients with a PE Severity Index score of fewer than 86 points. Primary exposures were the highest observed ED HR, most proximal embolus location (proximal vs distal), and embolism laterality (bilateral vs unilateral PE). The primary outcome was hospitalization. RESULTS: Of 461 patients meeting inclusion criteria, most (57.5%) were hospitalized, 2 patients (0.4%) died within 30 days, and 142 (30.8%) patients were at elevated risk by other criteria (Hestia criteria or biochemical/radiographic right ventricular dysfunction). Variablesassociated with an increased likelihood of admission were highest observed ED HR of ≥110 beats/minute (vs HR <90 beats/min) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07 to 9.57), highest ED HR 90 to 109 (aOR 2.03; 95% CI 1.18-3.50) and bilateral PE (aOR 1.92; 95% CI 1.13 to 3.27). Proximal embolus location was not associated with the likelihood of hospitalization (aOR 1.19; 95% CI 0.71 to 2.00). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients were hospitalized, often with recognizable high-risk characteristics not accounted for by the PE Severity Index. Highest ED HR of ≥90 beats/min and bilateral PE were associated with a physician's decision for hospitalization.

CT Use Reduction In Ostensive Ureteral Stone (CURIOUS).

INTRODUCTION: Computed tomography (CT) is performed in over 90% of patients diagnosed with ureteral stones, but only 10% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute flank pain are hospitalized for a clinically important stone or non-stone diagnosis. Hydronephrosis can be accurately detected using point-of-care ultrasound and is a key predictor of ureteral stone and risk of subsequent complications. The absence of hydronephrosis is insufficient to exclude a stone. We created a sensitive clinical decision rule to predict clinically important ureteral stones. We hypothesized that this rule could identify patients at low risk for this outcome. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a random sample of 4000 adults who presented to one of 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California EDs and underwent a CT for suspected ureteral stone from 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2020. The primary outcome was clinically important stone, defined as stone resulting in hospitalization or urologic procedure within 60 days. We used recursive partition analysis to generate a clinical decision rule predicting the outcome. We estimated the C-statistic (area under the curve), plotted the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the model, and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the model based on a risk threshold of 2%. RESULTS: Among 4000 patients, 354 (8.9%) had a clinically important stone. Our partition model resulted in four terminal nodes with risks ranging from 0.4% to 21.8%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI 0.80, 0.83). Using a 2% risk cut point, a clinical decision tree including hydronephrosis, hematuria, and a history of prior stones predicted complicated stones with sensitivity 95.5% (95% CI 92.8%-97.4%), specificity 59.9% (95% CI 58.3%-61.5%), positive predictive value 18.8% (95% CI 18.1%-19.5%), and negative predictive value 99.3% (95% CI 98.8%-99.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Application of this clinical decision rule to imaging decisions would have led to 63% fewer CT scans with a miss rate of 0.4%. A limitation was the application of our decision rule only to patients who underwent CT for suspected ureteral stone. Thus, this rule would not apply to patients who were thought to have ureteral colic but did not receive a CT because ultrasound or history were sufficient for diagnosis. These results could inform future prospective validation studies.

Mortality Following Diagnosis of Nontraumatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage Within an Integrated "Hub-and-Spoke" Neuroscience Care Model: Is Spoke Presentation Noninferior to Hub Presentation?

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines recommend that patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) be treated in units with acute neuroscience care experience. However, most hospitals in the United States lack this degree of specialization. We sought to examine outcome differences for patients with nontraumatic ICH presenting to centers with and without advanced neuroscience care specialization. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of adult patients presenting with nontraumatic ICH between 1/1/2011 and 9/30/2020 across 21 medical centers within Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated care system that employs a "hub-and-spoke" model of neuroscience care in which two centers service as neuroscience "hubs" and the remaining 19 centers service as referral "spokes." Patients presenting to spokes can receive remote consultation (including image review) by neurosurgical or neurointensive care specialists located at hubs. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. We used hierarchical logistic regression, adjusting for ICH score components, comorbidities, and demographics, to test a hypothesis that initial presentation to a spoke medical center was noninferior to hub presentation [defined as an odds ratio (OR) with an upper 95% confidence interval (CI) limit of 1.24 or less]. RESULTS: A total of 6978 patients were included, with 6170 (88%) initially presenting to spoke medical centers. The unadjusted 90-day mortality for patients initially presenting to spoke versus hub medical centers was 32.2% and 32.7%, respectively. In adjusted analysis, presentation to a spoke medical center was neither noninferior nor inferior for 90-day mortality risk (OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.84-1.74). Sensitivity analysis excluding patients admitted to general wards or lacking continuous health plan insurance during the follow-up period trended closer to a noninferior result (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.69-1.44). CONCLUSIONS: Within an integrated "hub-and-spoke" neuroscience care model, the risk of 90-day mortality following initial presentation with nontraumatic ICH to a spoke medical center was not conclusively noninferior compared with initial presentation to a hub medical center. However, there was also no indication that care for selected patients with nontraumatic ICH within medical centers lacking advanced neuroscience specialization resulted in significantly inferior outcomes. This finding may support the safety and efficiency of a "hub-and-spoke" care model for patients with nontraumatic ICH, although additional investigations are warranted.

Current Emergency Department Disposition of Patients With Acute Heart Failure: An Opportunity for Improvement.

Emergency department (ED) providers play a critical role in the stabilization and diagnostic evaluation of patients presenting with acute heart failure (AHF), and EDs are key areas for establishing current best practices and future considerations for the disposition of and decision making for patients with AHF. These elements include accurate risk assessment; response to initial treatment and shared decision making concerning optimal venue of care; reframing of physicians' risk perceptions for patients presenting with AHF; exploration of alternative venues of care beyond hospitalization; population-level changes in demographics, management and outcomes of HF patients; development and testing of data-driven pathways to assist with disposition decisions in the ED; and suggested outcomes for measuring success.

Management and Outcomes of Adults Diagnosed with Acute Pulmonary Embolism in Primary Care: Community-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The management and outcomes of patients diagnosed with acute pulmonary embolism in primary care have not been characterized. OBJECTIVE: To describe 30-day outcomes stratified by initial site-of-care decisions DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective cohort study PARTICIPANTS: Adults diagnosed with acute pulmonary embolism in primary care in a large, diverse community-based US health system (2013-2019) MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of 30-day serious adverse events (recurrent venous thromboembolism, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality). The secondary outcome was 7-day pulmonary embolism-related hospitalization, either initial or delayed. KEY RESULTS: Among 652 patient encounters (from 646 patients), median age was 64 years; 51.5% were male and 70.7% identified as non-Hispanic white. Overall, 134 cases (20.6%) were sent home from primary care and 518 cases (79.4%) were initially referred to the emergency department (ED) or hospital. Among the referred, 196 (37.8%) were discharged home from the ED without events. Eight patients (1.2%; 95% CI 0.5-2.4%) experienced a 30-day serious adverse event: 4 venous thromboemboli (0.6%), 1 major bleed (0.2%), and 3 deaths (0.5%). Seven of these patients were initially hospitalized, and 1 had been sent home from primary care. All 3 deaths occurred in patients with known metastatic cancer initially referred to the ED, hospitalized, then enrolled in hospice following discharge. Overall, 328 patients (50.3%) were hospitalized within 7 days: 322 at the time of the index diagnosis and 6 following initial outpatient management (4 clinic-only and 2 clinic-plus-ED patients). CONCLUSIONS: Patients diagnosed with acute pulmonary embolism in this primary care setting uncommonly experienced 30-day adverse events, regardless of initial site-of-care decisions. Over 20% were managed comprehensively by primary care. Delayed 7-day pulmonary embolism-related hospitalization was rare among the 51% treated as outpatients. Primary care management of acute pulmonary embolism appears to be safe and could have implications for cost-effectiveness and patient care experience.

Primary Care Visits Are Timelier When Patients Choose Telemedicine: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

Introduction: Telemedicine could increase timely access to primary care-a key dimension of care quality. Methods: Among patient-scheduled appointments with their own primary care providers using the online portal in a large integrated health care delivery system, we measured the association between visit type (telemedicine or in-person) and appointment timeliness. We calculated the calendar days between the scheduling date and the actual appointment time. Results: Overall, 2,178,440 primary care visits were scheduled and 14% were done through telemedicine. The mean calendar days between the scheduling and the appointment time were 1.80 for telephone visits, 2.29 for video visits, and 3.52 for in-person visits. After multivariate adjustment, 66.61% (confidence interval [95% CI]: 66.44-66.79) of telephone visits, 56.58% (95% CI: 55.90-57.27) of video visits, and 46.49% (95% CI: 46.42-46.57) of in-person visits were scheduled to occur within 1 day of making the appointment. Conclusions: In a setting with comparable in-person and telemedicine scheduling availability, choosing telemedicine was associated with more timely access to primary care.

Use of Machine Learning to Develop a Risk-Stratification Tool for Emergency Department Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We use variables from a recently derived acute heart failure risk-stratification rule (STRATIFY) as a basis to develop and optimize risk prediction using additional patient clinical data from electronic health records and machine-learning models. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort design, we identified all emergency department (ED) visits for acute heart failure between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018, among adult health plan members of a large system with 21 EDs. The primary outcome was any 30-day serious adverse event, including death, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, balloon-pump insertion, intubation, new dialysis, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Starting with the 13 variables from the STRATIFY rule (base model), we tested whether predictive accuracy in a different population could be enhanced with additional electronic health record-based variables or machine-learning approaches (compared with logistic regression). We calculated our derived model area under the curve (AUC), calculated test characteristics, and assessed admission rates across risk categories. RESULTS: Among 26,189 total ED encounters, mean patient age was 74 years, 51.7% were women, and 60.7% were white. The overall 30-day serious adverse event rate was 18.8%. The base model had an AUC of 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.77). Incorporating additional variables led to improved accuracy with logistic regression (AUC 0.80; 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.82) and machine learning (AUC 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 0.86). We found that 11.1%, 25.7%, and 48.9% of the study population had predicted serious adverse event risk of less than or equal to 3%, less than or equal to 5%, and less than or equal to 10%, respectively, and 28% of those with less than or equal to 3% risk were admitted. CONCLUSION: Use of a machine-learning model with additional variables improved 30-day risk prediction compared with conventional approaches.

60-day major adverse cardiac events in emergency department patients with non-low modified HEART scores.

BACKGROUND: A low (0-3) History, Electrocardiogram, Age, Risk factors and Troponin (HEART) score reliably identifies ED chest pain patients who are low risk for near-term major adverse cardiac events (MACE). To optimize sensitivity, many clinicians employ a modified HEART score by repeating troponin measurements and excluding patients with abnormal troponin values or ischemic electrocardiograms (ECGs). The residual MACE risk among patients with otherwise non-low (≥4) modified HEART scores is thus likely much lower than with non-low original HEART scores. OBJECTIVE: To explore residual 60-day MACE risks among patients with non-low modified HEART scores. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort of ED patients presenting with chest pain to an integrated healthcare system between 2013 and 2015. Patients with serial troponin measurements within 6 h of ED arrival were considered for inclusion. Exclusions included an ischemic ECG, troponin values above the 99th percentile or a lack of continuous health plan coverage through the 60-day follow-up period. MACE was defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, cardiogenic shock or death. RESULTS: There were 22,976 study eligible patients encounters, 13,521 (59%) of which had non-low (≥4) modified HEART scores. The observed 60-day MACE risk among non-low HEART score patients was 2.0% (95% CI 1.8-2.3). When including all coronary revascularizations (MACE-R), the risk was 4.4% (95% CI 4.1-4.4). CONCLUSION: Risk of near-term MACE among patients with non-low modified HEART scores (excluding those with abnormal troponin or ischemic ECGs) appears to be much lower than in the original HEART score validation studies.

Red blood cell transfusions for emergency department patients with gastrointestinal bleeding within an integrated health system.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess trends over time in red blood cell (RBC) transfusion practice among emergency department (ED) patients with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding within an integrated healthcare system, inclusive of 21 EDs. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of ED patients diagnosed with GI bleeding between July 1st, 2012 and September 30th, 2016. The primary outcome was receipt of an RBC transfusion in the ED. Secondary outcomes included 90-day rates of RBC transfusion, repeat ED visits, rehospitalization, and all-cause mortality. Logistic regression was used to obtain confounder-adjusted outcome rates. RESULTS: A total of 24,868 unique patient encounters were used for the primary analysis. The median hemoglobin level in the ED prior to RBC transfusion decreased from 7.5 g/dl to 6.9 g/dl in the first versus last twelve months of the study period (p < 0.0001). A small trend was observed in the overall adjusted rate of ED RBC transfusion (absolute quarterly change of -0.1%, R2 = 0.18, p = 0.0001) largely attributable to the subgroup of patients with hemoglobin nadirs between 7.0 and 9.9 g/dl (absolute quarterly change of -0.4%, R2 = 0.38, p < 0.0001). Rates of RBC transfusions through 90 days likewise decreased (absolute quarterly change of -0.4%, R2 = 0.85, p < 0.0001) with stable to decreased corresponding rates of repeat ED visits, rehospitalizations and mortality. CONCLUSION: Rates of ED RBC transfusion decreased over time among patients with GI bleeding, particularly in those with hemoglobin nadirs between 7.0 and 9.9 g/dl. These findings suggest that ED providers are willing to adopt evidence-based restrictive RBC transfusion recommendations for patients with GI bleeding.

Portal Use Among Patients With Chronic Conditions: Patient-reported Care Experiences.

BACKGROUND: Personal health records offer patients access to view their own health information and to manage their care online through secure patient portal tools. Little is known about the patient-reported experience in using health portals to manage chronic conditions. OBJECTIVE: In a patient-centered research study, we examined how using portal tools affects patient health care experiences among patients with chronic conditions. We also examined barriers among nonportal users. RESEARCH DESIGN: A cross-sectional patient survey. SUBJECTS: Patients with a chronic condition in an integrated delivery system offering a patient portal. MEASURES: Respondents reported barriers, preferences, and experiences in using the patient portal, and whether using the portal changed their overall health. RESULTS: Among all the 1824 respondents (70% response rate), portal nonusers reported preferring in-person health care (54%) or experiencing internet access barriers (41%). Portal users reported that using the portal was convenient (90%), the information available was useful (92%), and that it integrated well with other health care (92%). Among users, 31% reported that using the portal had improved their overall health. After adjustment, patients were significantly more likely to report that portal use improved their health if they had also reported convenience, information usefulness, or integration with other care (P<0.05). Reassuringly, patient-reported impacts on overall health did not vary by patient characteristics (including age, race, sex, education, income, complex conditions). CONCLUSION: Patients with chronic conditions using the portal reported convenience, information usefulness, and integration of the patient portal with their health care; these may act as potential pathways improving health.

Validation of the Pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC) in a Community Emergency Department Setting.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC) is a validated clinical tool for assessing a child's probability of appendicitis. Our objective was to assess the performance of the pARC in community emergency departments (EDs) and to compare its performance with that of the Pediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS). METHODS: We conducted a prospective validation study from October 1, 2016, to April 30, 2018, in 11 community EDs serving general populations. Patients aged 5 to 20.9 years and with a chief complaint of abdominal pain and less than or equal to 5 days of right-sided or diffuse abdominal pain were eligible for study enrollment. Our primary outcome was the presence or absence of appendicitis within 7 days of the index visit. We reported performance characteristics and secondary outcomes by pARC risk strata and compared the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of the PAS and pARC. RESULTS: We enrolled 2,089 patients with a mean age of 12.4 years, 46% of whom were male patients. Appendicitis was confirmed in 353 patients (16.9%), of whom 55 (15.6%) had perforated appendixes. Fifty-four percent of patients had very low (<5%) or low (5% to 14%) predicted risk, 43% had intermediate risk (15% to 84%), and 4% had high risk (≥85%). In the very-low- and low-risk groups, 1.4% and 3.0% of patients had appendicitis, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 0.92) for the pARC compared with 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.82) for the PAS. CONCLUSION: The pARC accurately assessed appendicitis risk for children aged 5 years and older in community EDs and the pARC outperformed the PAS.

Increasing Safe Outpatient Management of Emergency Department Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: A Controlled Pragmatic Trial.

Background: Many low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) are eligible for outpatient care but are hospitalized nonetheless. One impediment to home discharge is the difficulty of identifying which patients can safely forgo hospitalization. Objective: To evaluate the effect of an integrated electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to facilitate risk stratification and decision making at the site of care for patients with acute PE. Design: Controlled pragmatic trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03601676). Setting: All 21 community EDs of an integrated health care delivery system (Kaiser Permanente Northern California). Patients: Adult ED patients with acute PE. Intervention: Ten intervention sites selected by convenience received a multidimensional technology and education intervention at month 9 of a 16-month study period (January 2014 to April 2015); the remaining 11 sites served as concurrent controls. Measurements: The primary outcome was discharge to home from either the ED or a short-term (<24-hour) outpatient observation unit based in the ED. Adverse outcomes included return visits for PE-related symptoms within 5 days and recurrent venous thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, and all-cause mortality within 30 days. A difference-in-differences approach was used to compare pre-post changes at intervention versus control sites, with adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics. Results: Among 881 eligible patients diagnosed with PE at intervention sites and 822 at control sites, adjusted home discharge increased at intervention sites (17.4% pre- to 28.0% postintervention) without a concurrent increase at control sites (15.1% pre- and 14.5% postintervention). The difference-in-differences comparison was 11.3 percentage points (95% CI, 3.0 to 19.5 percentage points; P = 0.007). No increases were seen in 5-day return visits related to PE or in 30-day major adverse outcomes associated with CDSS implementation. Limitation: Lack of random allocation. Conclusion: Implementation and structured promotion of a CDSS to aid physicians in site-of-care decision making for ED patients with acute PE safely increased outpatient management. Primary Funding Source: Garfield Memorial National Research Fund and The Permanente Medical Group Delivery Science and Physician Researcher Programs.

Ibutilide Effectiveness and Safety in the Cardioversion of Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter in the Community Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the use of ibutilide for cardioversion in atrial fibrillation and flutter outside of clinical trials. We seek to describe patient characteristics, ibutilide administration patterns, cardioversion rates, and adverse outcomes in the community emergency department (ED) setting. We also evaluate potential predictors of cardioversion success. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort of adults who received ibutilide in 21 community EDs between January 2009 and June 2015, we gathered demographic and clinical variables from electronic health records and structured manual chart review. We calculated rates of cardioversion and frequency of ventricular tachycardia within 4 hours and estimated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) in a multivariate regression model for potential predictors of cardioversion. RESULTS: Among 361 patients, the median age was 61 years (interquartile range 53 to 71 years) and most had recent-onset atrial fibrillation and flutter (98.1%). Five percent of the cohort had a history of heart failure. The initial QTc interval was prolonged (>480 ms) in 29.4% of patients, and 3.1% were hypokalemic (<3.5 mEq/L). The mean ibutilide dose was 1.5 mg (SD 0.5 mg) and the rate of ibutilide-related cardioversion within 4 hours was 54.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 49.6% to 60.1%), 50.5% for atrial fibrillation and 75.0% for atrial flutter. Two patients experienced ventricular tachycardia (0.6%), both during their second ibutilide infusion. Age (in decades) (aOR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1 to 1.5), atrial flutter (versus atrial fibrillation) (aOR 2.7; 95% CI 1.4 to 5.1), and no history of atrial fibrillation and flutter (aOR 2.0; 95% CI 1.2 to 3.1) were associated with cardioversion. CONCLUSION: The effectiveness and safety of ibutilide in this community ED setting were consistent with clinical trial results despite less stringent patient selection criteria.

Outpatient Management of Emergency Department Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Variation, Patient Characteristics, and Outcomes.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Outpatient management of emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism is uncommon. We seek to evaluate the facility-level variation of outpatient pulmonary embolism management and to describe patient characteristics and outcomes associated with home discharge. METHODS: The Management of Acute Pulmonary Embolism (MAPLE) study is a retrospective cohort study of patients with acute pulmonary embolism undertaken in 21 community EDs from January 2013 to April 2015. We gathered demographic and clinical variables from comprehensive electronic health records and structured manual chart review. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the association between patient characteristics and home discharge. We report ED length of stay, consultations, 5-day pulmonary embolism-related return visits and 30-day major hemorrhage, recurrent venous thromboembolism, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Of 2,387 patients, 179 were discharged home (7.5%). Home discharge varied significantly between EDs, from 0% to 14.3% (median 7.0%; interquartile range 4.2% to 10.9%). Median length of stay for home discharge patients (excluding those who arrived with a new pulmonary embolism diagnosis) was 6.0 hours (interquartile range 4.6 to 7.2 hours) and 81% received consultations. On adjusted analysis, ambulance arrival, abnormal vital signs, syncope or presyncope, deep venous thrombosis, elevated cardiac biomarker levels, and more proximal emboli were inversely associated with home discharge. Thirteen patients (7.2%) who were discharged home had a 5-day pulmonary embolism-related return visit. Thirty-day major hemorrhage and recurrent venous thromboembolism were uncommon and similar between patients hospitalized and those discharged home. All-cause 30-day mortality was lower in the home discharge group (1.1% versus 4.4%). CONCLUSION: Home discharge of ED patients with acute pulmonary embolism was uncommon and varied significantly between facilities. Patients selected for outpatient management had a low incidence of adverse outcomes.