Ecologically implausible carbon response?

Magnani et al. present a very strong correlation between mean lifetime net ecosystem production (NEP, defined as the net rate of carbon (C) accumulation in ecosystems) and wet nitrogen (N) deposition. For their data in the range 4.9-9.8 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), on which the correlation largely depends, the response is approximately 725 kg C per kg N in wet deposition. According to the authors, the maximum N wet deposition level of 9.8 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) is equivalent to a total deposition of 15 kg N ha(-1 )yr(-1), implying a net sequestration near 470 kg C per kg N of total deposition. We question the ecological plausibility of the relationship and show, from a multi-factor analysis of European forest measurements, how interactions with site productivity and environment imply a much smaller NEP response to N deposition.

Assessing the impacts of long-range sulfur and nitrogen deposition on arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems.

For more than a decade, anthropogenic sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition has been identified as a key pollutant in the Arctic. In this study new critical loads of acidity (S and N) were estimated for terrestrial ecosystems north of 60 degrees latitude by applying the Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model using two critical chemical criteria (Al/Bc = 1 and ANCle = 0). Critical loads were exceeded in large areas of northern Europe and the Norilsk region in western Siberia during the 1990s, with the more stringent criterion (ANCle = 0) showing the larger area of exceedance. However, modeled deposition estimates indicate that mean concentrations of sulfur oxides and total S deposition within the Arctic almost halved between 1990 and 2000. The modeled exceeded area is much reduced when currently agreed emission reductions are applied, and almost disappears under the implementation of maximum technically feasible reductions by 2020. In northern North America there was no exceedance under any of the deposition scenarios applied. Modeled N deposition was less than 5 kg ha(-1) y(-1) almost across the entire study area for all scenarios; and therefore empirical critical loads for the eutrophying impact of nitrogen are unlikely to be exceeded. The reduction in critical load exceedances is supported by observed improvements in surface water quality, whereas the observed extensive damage of terrestrial vegetation around the mining and smelter complexes in the area is mainly caused by direct impacts of air pollution and metals.

Modelling long-term impacts of changes in climate, nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on carbon sequestration of European forest ecosystems.

We modelled the effects of past and expected future changes in climate (temperature, precipitation), CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition (N) and ozone (O3) exposure (phytotoxic ozone dose, POD) on carbon (C) sequestration by European forest ecosystems for the period 1900-2050. Tree C sequestration was assessed by using empirical response functions, while soil C sequestration was simulated with the process-based model VSD, combined with the RothC model. We evaluated two empirical growth responses to N deposition (linear and non-linear) and two O3 exposure relationships (linear function with total biomass or net annual increment). We further investigated an 'interactive model' with interactions between drivers and a 'multiplicative model', in which the combined effect is the product of individual drivers. A single deposition and climate scenario was used for the period 1900-2050. Contrary to expectations, growth observations at European level for the period 1950-2010 compared better with predictions by the multiplicative model than with the interactive model. This coincides with the fact that carbon responses in kgCha-1yr-1 per unit change in drivers, i.e. per °C, ppm CO2, kgNha-1yr-1 and mmolm-2yr-1 POD, are more in line with literature data when using the multiplicative model. Compared to 1900, the estimated European average total C sequestration in both forests and forest soils between 1950 and 2000 increased by 21% in the interactive model and by 41% in the multiplicative model, but observed changes were even higher. This growth increase is expected to decline between 2000 and 2050. The simulated changes between 1950 and 2000 were mainly due to the increase in both N deposition and CO2, while the predicted increases between 2000 and 2050 were mainly caused by the increase in CO2 and temperature, and to lesser extent a decrease in POD, counteracted by reduced N deposition.

Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

Uncertainties in critical loads and target loads of sulphur and nitrogen for European forests: analysis and quantification.

An analysis of the uncertainties in critical loads and target loads of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) for 182 European forest soils was carried out using the Very Simple Dynamic (VSD) model. The VSD model was calibrated with a Bayesian approach using prior probability functions for model parameters based on literature data, data from 200 Dutch forest sites and from simulated denitrification rates from a detailed ecosystem model. The calibration strongly improved the fit of the model to observed soil and soil solution concentrations, especially for pH and base saturation. Calibration also narrowed down the ranges in input parameters. The uncertainty analysis showed which parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in the critical loads and target loads. Base cation weathering and deposition and the parameters describing the H-Al equilibrium in the soil solution determine the uncertainty in the maximum critical loads for S, CL(max)(S), when based on the aluminium to base cation (Al/Bc) criterion. Uncertainty in CL(max)(S) based on an acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) criterion is completely determined by base cation inputs alone. The denitrification fraction is the most important source of uncertainty for the maximum critical loads of N, CL(max)(N). N uptake and N immobilisation determine the uncertainties in the critical load for N as a nutrient, CL(nut)(N). Calibration of VSD reduced the uncertainty: the coefficient of variation (CV) was reduced for all critical loads and criteria. After calibration, the CV for CL(max)(S) was below 0.4 for almost all plots; however for CL(max)(N) high values occurred for plots with high denitrification rates. Model calibration also improved the robustness of target load estimates: after calibration, no target loads were needed in any of the simulations for 40% of the plots, with the uncalibrated model there was a positive probability for the need of a target load for almost all plots.

Modelling the long-term soil response to atmospheric deposition at intensively monitored forest plots in Europe.

The dynamic soil chemistry model SMART was applied to 121 intensive forest monitoring plots (mainly located in western and northern Europe) for which both element input (deposition) and element concentrations in the soil solution were available. After calibration of poorly known parameters, the model accurately simulated soil solution concentrations for most plots as indicated by goodness-of-fit measures, although some of the intra-annual variation especially in nitrate and aluminium concentrations could not be reproduced. Model evaluations of two emission-deposition scenarios (current legislation and maximum feasible reductions) for the period 1970-2030 show a strong reduction in sulphate concentrations between 1980 and 2000 in the soil due to the high reductions in sulphur emissions. However, current legislation hardly reduces future nitrogen concentrations, whereas maximum feasible reductions reduces them by more than half. Maximum feasible reductions are also more effective in increasing pH and reducing aluminium concentrations, mostly below 'critical' values.

Modelling recovery from soil acidification in European forests under climate change.

A simple soil acidification model was applied to evaluate the effects of sulphur and nitrogen emission reductions on the recovery of acidified European forest soils. In addition we included the effects of climate change on soil solution chemistry, by modelling temperature effects on soil chemical processes and including temperature and precipitation effects on nitrogen uptake and on leaching. Model results showed a strong effect of the emission reduction scenarios on soil solution chemistry. Using the Current Legislation (CLE) scenario, the forest area in Europe with soil solution Al/Bc >1 mol mol(-1) (a widely used critical limit) decreased from about 4% in 1990 to about 1.7% in 2050. Under Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFR), the exceeded area will be <1% in 2050. In addition, the area where limits for the nitrate concentration in soils are violated is predicted to be smaller under MFR than under CLE. Using the most stringent criterion for nitrate ([NO(3)] <0.3mg l(-1)), the area with nitrate concentrations in excess of the critical limit is about 33% in 2050 under CLE, but only 12% under MFR. Recovery, i.e. attaining non-violation of the criterion, is also much faster under MFR than under CLE. Climate change leads to higher weathering rates and nitrogen uptake in the model, but positive effects on recovery from acidification are limited compared to current climate, and differences between the A1 and B2 climate change scenarios were small. Target loads for 2050 exist for 4% of the area for Al/Bc=1 and for 12% of the area when using a criterion of ANC=0 for the soil solution. In about 30% of the area where meaningful target loads exists, the computed target load is lower than the deposition under MFR, and thus cannot be attained with current emission abatement technologies.

Time horizon dependent characterization factors for acidification in life-cycle assessment based on forest plant species occurrence in Europe.

This paper describes a new approach in life-cycle impact assessment to derive characterization factors for acidification in European forests. Time horizon dependent characterization factors for acidification were calculated, whereas before only steady-state factors were available. The characterization factors indicate the change in the potential occurrence of plant species due to a change in emission, and they consist of a fate and an effect factor. The fate factor combines the results of an atmospheric deposition model and a dynamic soil acidification model. The change in base saturation in soil due to an atmospheric emission change was derived for 20, 50, 100, and 500 year time horizons. The effect factor was based on a dose-response curve of the potential occurrence of plant species, derived from multiple regression equations per plant species. The results showed that characterization factors for acidification increase up to a factor of 13 from a 20 years to a 500 years time horizon. Characterization factors for ammonia are 4.0-4.3 times greater than those for nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and characterization factors for sulfur dioxide are 1.4-2.0 times greater than those for NO(x). Aggregation of damage due to acidification with other impact categories on the European scale becomes feasible with the applied approach.