Spatial variations in aromatic hydrocarbon emission in a dust-rich galaxy.

Dust grains absorb half of the radiation emitted by stars throughout the history of the universe, re-emitting this energy at infrared wavelengths1-3. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are large organic molecules that trace millimetre-size dust grains and regulate the cooling of interstellar gas within galaxies4,5. Observations of PAH features in very distant galaxies have been difficult owing to the limited sensitivity and wavelength coverage of previous infrared telescopes6,7. Here we present James Webb Space Telescope observations that detect the 3.3 µm PAH feature in a galaxy observed less than 1.5 billion years after the Big Bang. The high equivalent width of the PAH feature indicates that star formation, rather than black hole accretion, dominates infrared emission throughout the galaxy. The light from PAH molecules, hot dust and large dust grains and stars are spatially distinct from one another, leading to order-of-magnitude variations in PAH equivalent width and ratio of PAH to total infrared luminosity across the galaxy. The spatial variations we observe suggest either a physical offset between PAHs and large dust grains or wide variations in the local ultraviolet radiation field. Our observations demonstrate that differences in emission from PAH molecules and large dust grains are a complex result of localized processes within early galaxies.

Primary graft dysfunction after heart transplantation: Outcomes and resource utilization.

BACKGROUND: A unified definition of primary graft dysfunction (PGD) after heart transplantation was adopted in 2014, with moderate and severe PGD defined as a need for mechanical circulatory support. While risk factors for PGD are well identified, outcomes and resource utilization have not been well-studied. We examined the resource utilization and associated costs with PGD. METHODS: All adult heart transplantations (2001-2016) from a statewide Society of Thoracic Surgery database were analyzed by dividing them into two groups-with PGD (requiring mechanical circulatory support) and without PGD. RESULTS: Of the 718 heart transplants, 110 (15.3%) patients developed PGD. Prevalence of PGD for the study duration ranged from 3.7% to 22.7% with no significant trend. The most frequently used mechanical circulatory support device was intra-aortic balloon pump (88%), followed by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (17%), and catheter-based circulatory support devices (3%). There were no significant differences in demographics or preoperative variables between the two groups. Resource utilization such as total intensive care unit hours, ventilation hours, reoperation for bleeding, blood product transfusions, and length of stay were significantly higher in the PGD group. Postoperative complications were also higher in PGD group including operative mortality (31.8% vs 3.8%, P < .0001). The median cost of heart transplantation was significantly higher in the PGD group $229 482 ($126 044-$388 889) vs $101 788 ($72 638-$181 180) P < .0001. CONCLUSION: Primary graft dysfunction following heart transplantation developed in 15% of patients. Patients with PGD had significantly higher complications, resource utilization, and mortality. Preventive measures to address the development of PGD would reduce resource utilization and improve outcomes.

Variation in cost-effectiveness in coronary revascularization: a new paradigm for evaluation?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Cost-effectiveness has become an increasingly important tool in assessing the value of healthcare. The principles of cost-effectiveness and the need to standardize the methodology are discussed. Documented variation could be used to adjust reimbursement. RECENT FINDINGS: The US healthcare system continues to be under financial pressure. Although national health expenditures have slowed, growth rates continue to outpace gross domestic product. Spending in the coming years is expected to grow 7% annually. Treatment of cardiac disease, and in particular ischemic heart disease, is a significant portion of healthcare spending. A strategy to improve clinical and financial outcomes for revascularization procedures is essential. Recently, the SYNTAX trial and ASCERT have addressed cost-effectiveness as an outcome measure in revascularization for coronary artery disease. SUMMARY: Cost-effectiveness is becoming an important part of healthcare provider performance and patient outcomes. Difficulties in obtaining cost, resource use, and quality of life data are not insurmountable as recently documented in randomized and observational trials. Reimbursement has already been linked to costs and resource use in current regulation. As the payment systems move toward disease management, cost-effectiveness will be the measure of choice. The prevalence of cardiac disease in the US population will mandate its use in adjusting payments to these providers.

Grading Osteoarthritic Changes of the Zygapophyseal Joints from Radiographs: A Reliability Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study tested the reliability of a 5-point ordinal scale used to grade the severity of degenerative changes of zygapophyseal (Z) joints on standard radiographs. METHODS: Modifications were made to a Kellgren grading system to improve agreement for grading the severity of osteoarthritic changes in lumbar Z joints. These included adding 1 grade of no degeneration, multiple radiographic views, and structured examiner training. Thirty packets of radiographic files were obtained, which included representation of all 5 grades including no degeneration (0) and Kellgren's 4-point (1-4) joint degeneration classification criteria. Radiographs were digitized to create a radiographic atlas that was given to examiners for individual study and blinded evaluation sessions. Intrarater and interrater agreement was determined by weighted κ (κw) from the examination of 79 Z joints (25 packets). RESULTS: Using the modified scale and after training, examiners demonstrated a moderate-to-substantial level of interrater agreement (κw = 0.57, 0.60, and 0.68). Intrarater agreement was moderate (κw = 0.42 and 0.54). CONCLUSIONS: The modified Kellgren 5-point grading system provides acceptable intrarater and interrater reliability when examiners are adequately trained. This grading system may be a useful method for future investigations assessing radiographic osteoarthritis of the Z joints.

Effect of Socioeconomic Distress on Risk-Adjusted Mortality After Valve Surgery for Infective Endocarditis.

Infective endocarditis affects patients of all socioeconomic status. We hypothesized that the Distressed Communities Index (DCI), a comprehensive assessment of socioeconomic status, would be associated with risk-adjusted mortality for patients with endocarditis. All patients with endocarditis (2001-2017) in a regional Society of Thoracic Surgeons database were analyzed. DCI scores range from 0 (no socioeconomic distress) to 100 (severe distress) and account for unemployment, poverty rate, median income, housing vacancies, education level, and business growth by zip code. The most distressed patients (top quartile, DCI > 75) were compared to all other patients. Hierarchical logistic regression modeled the association between DCI and mortality. A total of 2,075 patients were included (median age 55 years, 65.2% urgent/emergent cases, 42.7% self-pay). Major morbidity was 32.8% and operative mortality was 9.5%. Tricuspid/pulmonic valve endocarditis was present in 12.5% of cases, with significantly worse mean DCI compared to patients with left-sided endocarditis (median 55.3, IQR 20.3-77.6 vs 46.8, IQR 17.3-74.2, P = 0.016). High socioeconomic distress (DCI > 75) was associated with higher rates of major morbidity, operative mortality, increased length of stay, and higher total cost. After risk-adjustment, DCI was independently predictive of higher operative mortality for patients with endocarditis (OR 1.24 per DCI quartile increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.45, P < 0.001). Increasing DCI, an indicator of poor socioeconomic status, independently predicts increased risk-adjusted mortality and resource utilization for patients with endocarditis. Accounting for socioeconomic status allows for more accurate risk prediction and resource allocation for patients with endocarditis.

Socioeconomic Distress Associated With Increased Use of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Over Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

BACKGROUND: The influence of socioeconomic determinants of health on choice of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) vs coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for coronary artery disease is unknown. We hypothesized that higher Distressed Communities Index (DCI) scores, a comprehensive socioeconomic ranking by zip code, would be associated with more frequent PCI. METHODS: All patients undergoing isolated CABG or PCI in a regional American College of Cardiology CathPCI registry and The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database (2018-2021) were assigned DCI scores (0 = no distress, 100 = severe distress) based on education level, poverty, unemployment, housing vacancies, median income, and business growth. Patients who presented with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or emergent procedures were excluded. The most distressed quintile (DCI ≥80) was compared with all other patients. Multivariable logistic regression analyzed the association between DCI and procedure type. RESULTS: A total of 23 223 patients underwent either PCI (n = 16 079) or CABG (n = 7144) for coronary artery disease across 28 centers during the study period. Before adjustment, high socioeconomic distress occurred more frequently among CABG patients (DCI ≥80, 12.4% vs 8.42%; P < .001). After multivariable adjustment, high socioeconomic distress was associated with greater odds of receiving PCI, relative to CABG (odds ratio 1.26; 95% CI, 1.07-1.49; P = .007). High socioeconomic distress was significantly associated with postprocedural mortality (odds ratio 1.52; 95% CI, 1.02-2.26; P = .039). CONCLUSIONS: High socioeconomic distress is associated with greater risk-adjusted odds of receiving PCI, relative to CABG, as well as higher postprocedural mortality. Targeted resource allocation in high DCI areas may help eliminate barriers to CABG.

Center case volume is associated with Society of Thoracic Surgeons-defined failure to rescue in cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Our understanding of the impact of a center's case volume on failure to rescue (FTR) after cardiac surgery is incomplete. We hypothesized that increasing center case volume would be associated with lower FTR. METHODS: Patients undergoing a Society of Thoracic Surgeons index operation in a regional collaborative (2011-2021) were included. After we excluded patients with missing Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality scores, patients were stratified by mean annual center case volume. The lowest quartile of case volume was compared with all other patients. Logistic regression analyzed the association between center case volume and FTR, adjusting for patient demographics, race, insurance, comorbidities, procedure type, and year. RESULTS: A total of 43,641 patients were included across 17 centers during the study period. Of these, 5315 (12.2%) developed an FTR complication, and 735 (13.8% of those who developed an FTR complication) experienced FTR. Median annual case volume was 226, with 25th and 75th percentile cutoffs of 136 and 284 cases, respectively. Increasing center-level case volume was associated with significantly greater center-level major complication rates but lower mortality and FTR rates (all P values < .01). Observed-to-expected FTR was significantly associated with case volume (P = .040). Increasing case volume was independently associated with decreasing FTR rate in the final multivariable model (odds ratio, 0.87 per quartile; confidence interval, 0.799-0.946, P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing center case volume is significantly associated with improved FTR rates. Assessment of low-volume centers' FTR performance represents an opportunity for quality improvement.

Isolated aortic valve replacement with bio-prostheses in patients age 50 to 65 years: a decade of statewide data on cost and patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for choice of replacement valve-mechanical versus bio-prosthetic, are well established for patients aged <50 and >65 years. We studied the trends and implications of aortic valve replacement (AVR) with mechanical versus bioprosthetic valve in patients aged 50 to 65 years. METHODS: STS and cost database of 17 centers for isolated AVR surgery were analyzed by dividing them into bioprosthetic valve (BV) or mechanical valve (MV) groups. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2011, 3,690 patients had AVR, 18.6% with MV and 81.4% with BV. Use of BV for all ages increased from 71.5% in 2002 to 87% in 2011. There were 1127 (30.5%) patients in the age group 50-65 years. Use of BV in this group almost doubled, 39.6% in 2002 to 76.8% in 2011. Mean age of patients in BV group was higher (59.2±4.2 years vs. 56.7±4.3 years, P≤0.0001). Preoperative renal failure, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease favored use of BV, whereas preoperative atrial fibrillation favored AVR with MV. Mortality (MV 2.2% vs. BV 2.36%) and other postoperative outcomes between the groups were similar. Cost of valve replacement increased for both groups (MV $26,191 in 2002 to $42,592 in 2011; BV $27,404 in 2002 to $44,257 in 2011). CONCLUSIONS: Use of bioprostheses for AVR has increased; this change is more pronounced in patients aged 50-65 years. Specific preoperative risk factors influence the choice of valve for AVR. Postoperative outcomes between the two groups were similar. Long-term implications of this changing practice, in particular, reoperation for bioprosthetic valve degeneration should be examined.

Development of the Elective Outpatient Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Episode-Based Cost Measure.

BACKGROUND: The Merit-Based Incentive Payment System adjusts clinician payments based on a performance score that includes cost measures. With the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, we developed a novel cost measure that compared interventional cardiologists on a targeted set of costs related to elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We describe the measure and compare it to a hypothetical version including all expenditures post-PCI. METHODS: Measure development was guided by 39 clinician experts. They identified services within 30 days of PCI that could be potentially affected by the interventional cardiologist. Expenditures for these PCI-related services were included as measure costs in a process termed service assignment. We used 1 year of Medicare claims to calculate clinician scores using the final measure that included only PCI-related costs (with service assignment) and a hypothetical version that included all costs post-PCI (without service assignment). We calculated reliability for both measures. This marker of precision breaks measure variance into signal (difference between clinicians) versus noise (difference between PCI episodes for a clinician). We also determined the change in clinician performance quintile between measures. RESULTS: We identified 100 992 elective outpatient PCI episodes from May 2, 2016, to May 1, 2017. Total Medicare expenditures within 30 days of PCI averaged $13 234. After excluding costs unrelated to PCI, average cost was $10 966. For individual clinicians, mean reliability for the hypothetical measure without service assignment was 0.36. After service assignment, final measure reliability increased to 0.53. When evaluated as clinician groups, reliability increased from 0.43 to 0.73 following service assignment. Approximately 66% (2340 of 3527) of clinicians were reclassified into a different performance quintile after excluding unrelated costs. CONCLUSIONS: The elective outpatient PCI cost measure had increased precision and reclassified clinician performance relative to a hypothetical version that included total expenditures.

Impact of transfer status on real-world outcomes in nonelective cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Transfer from hospital to hospital for cardiac surgery represents a large portion of some clinical practices. Previous literature in other surgical fields has shown worse outcomes for transferred patients. We hypothesized that transferred patients would be higher risk and demonstrate worse outcomes than those admitted through the emergency department. METHODS: All patients undergoing cardiac operations with a Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality were evaluated from a multicenter, statewide Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. Only patients requiring admission before surgery were included. Patients were stratified by admission through the emergency department or in transfer. Transfers were further stratified by the cardiothoracic surgery capabilities at the referring center. RESULTS: A total of 13,094 patients met the inclusion criteria of admission before surgery. This included 7582 (57.9%) transfers, of which 502 (6.6%) were referred from cardiac centers. Compared with emergency department admissions, transfers had increased hospital costs despite lower operative risk (Predicted Risk of Mortality 1.5% vs 1.6%, P < .01) and equivalent postoperative morbidity (15.6% vs 15.3% P = .63). In risk-adjusted analysis, transfer status was not independently associated with worse outcomes. Patients transferred from centers that perform cardiac surgery are higher risk than general transfers (Predicted Risk of Mortality 2.5% vs 1.5, P < .01), but specialized care results in excellent risk-adjusted outcomes (observed/expected: mortality 0.81; morbidity or mortality 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Transfer patients have similar rates of postoperative complications but increased resource use compared with patients admitted through the emergency department. Patients transferred from centers that perform cardiac surgery represent a particularly high-risk subgroup.

Examination of a Proposed 30-day Readmission Risk Score on Discharge Location and Cost.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions cost an estimated $41 billion in the United States each year. To address this, a single institution recently developed a new risk model predictive of 30-day readmission after adult cardiac surgery. The purpose of this study is to validate and refine this new readmission risk model using a statewide database. METHODS: A total of 19,964 patients were analyzed using a statewide Society of Thoracic Surgeons database (2014-2017). The aforementioned multivariate model was replicated (model 1): race, hospital length of stay, chronic lung disease, operation type, and renal failure. Model 2 also included discharge location. Thirty-day readmission risk scores and low-risk (0%-10%), moderate-risk (10%-13%), and high-risk (≥13%) categories were calculated. RESULTS: The overall 30-day readmission rate was 11.1% with both models 1 and 2 predicting readmission (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.11 vs odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.11). Statistically significant differences were observed across all risk categories in discharge location and total cost. For models 1 and 2, 86% of low-risk patients were discharged to home vs 66.9% and 42.9% of patients in high-risk groups, respectively (P < .001). The largest increases were observed with a hospice discharge location for both model 1 (from $37,930 to $89,285) and model 2 (from $37,930 to $89,230). CONCLUSIONS: Both risk models significantly predicted 30-day readmission in our multiinstitutional dataset, confirming the score is valid and a generalizable quality improvement tool. The addition of discharge location and total cost adds valuable information of the ongoing efforts to identify patients at high risk for readmission.

Risk Aversion in Cardiac Surgery: 15-Year Trends in a Statewide Analysis.

BACKGROUND: With a rising emphasis on public reporting, we hypothesized that select hospitals are becoming increasingly risk-averse by avoiding high-risk operations. Further, we evaluated the association between risk-averse practices, outcomes, and publicly reported quality measures. METHODS: Clinical data from 78,417 patients undergoing cardiac surgery (2002-2016) from a regional consortium was paired with publicly available reimbursement and quality data. High-risk surgery was defined as predicted risk of mortality ≥5%. Hospital risk aversion was defined as a significant decrease in both high-risk volume and proportion, with cases stratified by hospital risk aversion status for univariate analysis. RESULTS: The rate of high-risk cases decreased from 17.9% in 2002 to 12.6% in 2016. Significant risk aversion was seen in 39% of hospitals, which had a 59% decrease in high-risk volume vs a 16% decrease at non-risk-averse hospitals. In the last 5 years, declining high-risk cases at risk-averse hospitals were driven by fewer cases from transfers (19.2% vs 28.1%, P < .001) and the emergency department (17.6% vs 19.2%, P = .001). Only non-risk-averse hospitals had mortality rates lower than expected (risk-averse: 0.97 [95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.03], P = .30; non-risk-averse: 0.88 [95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.94], P = .001). There were no differences by risk aversion status in reported ratings or financial incentives (all P > .05). CONCLUSIONS: Over 60% of hospitals continue to operate on high-risk patients, with concentration of care driven by transfer patterns. These non-risk-averse hospitals are high-performing with better-than-expected outcomes, particularly in high-risk cases. Transparency and objectivity in reporting are essential to ensure continued access for these high-risk patients.

Implications of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Carriage on Cardiac Surgical Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus remains the most common cause of sternal surgical site infections (SSIs). Opinions on the postoperative implications of preoperative methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA) colonization currently differ. This study aimed to investigate whether MRSA carriage affects postoperative outcomes and safety of operation. METHODS: A total of 1,774,811 cardiac surgical patients from 2009 to 2014 were identified from the National Inpatient Sample database. Among these patients, 5798 (0.33%) were MRSA carriers. Propensity-score matching was used to determine the effect of MRSA colonization on outcomes. RESULTS: MRSA carriers did not differ in age or sex from noncarriers, but they more often presented for urgent surgery (P < .001). Among matched pairs, there was no difference in mortality (P = .76), stroke, SSIs, pneumonia, renal failure, cardiac complications, respiratory failure, or prolonged mechanical ventilation. MRSA infection (P < .001), MRSA septicemia (P = 0.03), and blood transfusion (P = .003) occurred more often among MRSA carriers. There was no increase in cost (P = .12), but the hospital length of stay was longer (P = .005). Predictors of MRSA infection among carriers included age older than 85 years, rural hospital location, and diabetes. Carriers with endocarditis and drug abuse were at highest risk for MRSA infection. CONCLUSIONS: MRSA carriers undergoing cardiac surgery are not at higher risk for mortality or SSIs and can expect outcomes similar to those of noncarriers. Higher rates of postoperative MRSA infection and septicemia among carriers, although still very low, support the need for selective preoperative screening and prophylaxis when possible.

Current quality reporting methods are not adequate for salvage cardiac operations.

OBJECTIVES: Outcomes in cardiac surgery are benchmarked against national Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) data and include patients undergoing elective, urgent, emergent, and salvage operations. This practice relies on accurate risk adjustment to avoid risk-averse behavior. We hypothesize that the STS risk calculator does not adequately characterize the risk of salvage operations because of their heterogeneity and infrequent occurrence. METHODS: Data on all cardiac surgery patients with an STS predicted risk score (2002-2017) were extracted from a regional database of 19 cardiac surgery centers. Patients were stratified according to operative status for univariate analysis. Observed-to-expected (O:E) ratios for mortality and composite morbidity/mortality were calculated and compared among elective, urgent, emergent, and salvage patients. RESULTS: A total of 76,498 patients met inclusion criteria. The O:E mortality ratios for elective, urgent, and emergent cases were 0.96, 0.98, and 0.93, respectively (all P values > .05). However, mortality rate was significantly higher than expected for salvage patients (O:E ratio, 1.41; P = .04). Composite morbidity/mortality rate was lower than expected in elective (O:E ratio, 0.81; P = .0001) and urgent (O:E ratio, 0.93; P = .0001) cases but higher for emergent (O:E ratio, 1.13; P = .0006) and salvage (O:E ratio, 1.24; P = .01). O:E ratios for salvage mortality were highly variable among each of the 19 centers. CONCLUSIONS: The current STS risk models do not adequately predict outcomes for salvage cardiac surgery patients. On the basis of these results, we recommend more detailed reporting of salvage outcomes to avoid risk aversion in these potentially life-saving operations.

Regional collaboration as a model for fostering accountability and transforming health care.

An era of increasing budgetary constraints, misaligned payers and providers, and a competitive system where United States health outcomes are outpaced by less well-funded nations is motivating policy-makers to seek more effective means for promoting cost-effective delivery and accountability. This article illustrates an effective working model of regional collaboration focused on improving health outcomes, containing costs, and making efficient use of resources in cardiovascular surgical care. The Virginia Cardiac Surgery Quality Initiative is a decade-old collaboration of cardiac surgeons and hospital providers in Virginia working to improve outcomes and contain costs by analyzing comparative data, identifying top performers, and replicating best clinical practices on a statewide basis. The group's goals and objectives, along with 2 generations of performance improvement initiatives, are examined. These involve attempts to improve postoperative outcomes and use of tools for decision support and modeling. This work has led the group to espouse a more integrated approach to performance improvement and to formulate principles of a quality-focused payment system. This is one in which collaboration promotes regional accountability to deliver quality care on a cost-effective basis. The Virginia Cardiac Surgery Quality Initiative has attempted to test a global pricing model and has implemented a pay-for-performance program where physicians and hospitals are aligned with common objectives. Although this collaborative approach is a work in progress, authors point out preconditions applicable to other regions and medical specialties. A road map of short-term next steps is needed to create an adaptive payment system tied to the national agenda for reforming the delivery system.

Incremental Risk of Annular Enlargement: A Multi-Institutional Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Annular enlargement (AE) is a critical technique to avoid patient-prosthesis mismatch and may help facilitate future valve-in-valve (ViV) transcatheter replacement. We hypothesized that the addition of annular enlargement would increase risk of morbidity and mortality and that the number of annular enlargement procedures is increasing to accommodate future ViV procedures. METHODS: Patients undergoing aortic valve replacement ± coronary surgery (2012 to 2017) were extracted from a regional Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. Patients were stratified by annular enlargement and era, pre-ViV (2012 to 2014) vs ViV (2015 to 2017) for univariate analysis. Risk-adjusted outcomes were assessed by hierarchical regression modeling adjusting for predicted risk of mortality. RESULTS: Of 6045 patients, the 300 (5.0%) who received an annular enlargement were younger and more commonly female. Patients receiving an annular enlargement had higher complication rates including operative mortality (4.7% vs 2.5%, P = .024). After risk adjustment, AE was independently associated with increased mortality (odds ratio, 2.06, P = .016) and major morbidity (odds ratio, 1.41, P = .042). The rate of enlargement increased from 3.9% pre-ViV to 6.3% ViV (P < .001). The use of ViV capable valves (bioprosthetic ≥23 mm) from 61% to 67% (P = .001), and more in AE patients (30% vs 11% non-AE). Alternatively, the rate of patient prosthesis mismatch declined from 23% to 16%. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing utilization of AE coincides with a decline in patient prosthesis mismatch and may facilitate future ViV transcatheter aortic valve replacement. However, AE was independently associated with increased morbidity and mortality. High variability in AE volume may be increasing risk and deserves further investigation.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Independently Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Although liver disease increases surgical risk, it is not considered in The Society for Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk calculator. This study assessed the impact of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) on outcomes after cardiac surgical procedures and the additional predictive value of MELD in the STS risk model. METHODS: Deidentified records of 21,272 patients were extracted from a regional STS database. Inclusion criteria were any cardiac operation with a risk score available (2011-2016). Exclusion criteria included missing MELD (n = 2,895) or preoperative anticoagulation (n = 144). Patients were stratified into three categories, MELD < 9 (low), MELD 9 to 15 (moderate), and MELD > 15 (high). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression assessed risk-adjusted associations between MELD and operative outcomes. RESULTS: Increasing MELD scores were associated with greater comorbid disease, mitral operation, prior cardiac operation, and higher STS-predicted risk of mortality (1.1%, 2.3%, and 6.0% by MELD category; p < 0.0001). The operative mortality rate increased with increasing MELD score (1.6%, 3.9%, and 8.4%; p < 0.0001). By logistic regression MELD score was an independent predictor of operative mortality (odds ratio, 1.03 per MELD score point; p < 0.0001) as were the components total bilirubin (odds ratio, 1.22 per mg/dL; p = 0.002) and international normalized ratio (odds ratio, 1.40 per unit; p < 0.0001). Finally, MELD score was independently associated with STS major morbidity and the component complications renal failure and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing MELD score, international normalized ratio, and bilirubin all independently increase risk of operative mortality. Because high rates of missing data currently limit utilization of MELD, efforts to simplify and improve data collection would help improve future risk models.

Is routine extubation overnight safe in cardiac surgery patients?

OBJECTIVES: Expedient extubation after cardiac surgery has been associated with improved outcomes, leading to postoperative extubation frequently during overnight hours. However, recent evidence in a mixed medical-surgical intensive care unit population demonstrated worse outcomes with overnight extubation. This study investigated the impact of overnight extubation in a statewide, multicenter Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. METHODS: Records from 39,812 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting or valve operations (2008-2016) and extubated within 24 hours were stratified according to extubation time between 06:00 and 18:00 (day) or between 18:00 and 6:00 (overnight). Outcomes including reintubation, mortality, and composite morbidity-mortality were evaluated using hierarchical regression models adjusted for Society of Thoracic Surgeons predictive risk scores. To further analyze extubation during the night, a subanalysis stratified patients into 3 groups: 06:00 to 18:00, 18:00 to 24:00, and 24:00 to 06:00. RESULTS: A total of 20,758 patients were extubated overnight (52.1%) and were slightly older (median age 66 vs 65 years, P < .001) with a longer duration of ventilation (4 vs 7 hours, P < .001). Day and overnight extubation were associated with equivalent operative mortality (1.7% vs 1.7%, P = .880), reintubation (3.7% vs 3.4%, P = .141), and composite morbidity-mortality (8.2% vs 8.0%, P = .314). After risk adjustment, overnight extubation was not associated with any difference in reintubation, mortality, or composite morbidity-mortality. On subanalysis, those extubated between 24:00 and 06:00 exhibited increased composite morbidity-mortality (odds ratio, 1.18; P = .001) but no difference in reintubation or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Extubation overnight was not associated with increased mortality or reintubation. These results suggest that in the appropriate clinical setting, it is safe to routinely extubate cardiac surgery patients overnight.

Socioeconomic Distressed Communities Index Predicts Risk-Adjusted Mortality After Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: The effects of socioeconomic factors other than insurance status and race on outcomes after cardiac operations are not well understood. We hypothesized that the Distressed Communities Index (DCI), a comprehensive socioeconomic ranking by zip code, would predict operative mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: All patients who underwent isolated CABG (2010 to 2017) in the Virginia Cardiac Services Quality Initiative database were analyzed. The DCI accounts for unemployment, education level, poverty rate, median income, business growth, and housing vacancies, with scores ranging from 0 (no distress) to 100 (severe distress). Patients were stratified by DCI quartiles (I: 0 to 24.9, II: 25 to 49.9, III: 50 to 74.9, IV: 75 to 100) and compared. Hierarchical linear regression modeled the association between the DCI and mortality. RESULTS: A total of 19,756 CABG patients were analyzed, with mean predicted risk of mortality of 2.0% ± 3.5%. Higher DCI scores were associated with increasing predicted risk of mortality. Overall operative mortality was 2.1% (n = 424) and increased with increasing DCI quartile (I: 1.6% [n = 95], II: 2.1% [n = 77], III: 2.4% [n = 114], IV: 2.6% [n = 138]; p = 0.0009). The observed-to-expected ratio for mortality increased as level of socioeconomic distress increased. After risk adjustment for The Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality, year of surgical procedure, and hospital, the DCI remained predictive of operative mortality after CABG (odds ratio, 1.14 for each 25-point increase in DCI; 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.26; p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: The DCI independently predicts risk-adjusted operative mortality after CABG. Socioeconomic status, although not part of traditional risk calculators, should be considered when building risk models, evaluating resource utilization, and comparing hospitals.

Maximize Reimbursement and Minimize Risk Under the Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (MACRA) and the Quality Payment Program (QPP).

The Congress recently passed legislation to repeal the Sustainable Growth Rate Formula and replace it with the Medicare Access and Children Health Plan Reauthorization Act's Quality Payment Program. The Quality Payment Program is designed to move physician payment from a volume-based to a value-based methodology. There are two pathways of payment that diverge and are differentiated by managing risks or managing rewards. The Merit-based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) is a competitive payment system that is budget neutral and results in defined winners and losers with potential losses/gains in payments from 4% in 2019 to 9% in 2022. Characteristically, this is not dissimilar to the Sustainable Growth Rate Formula of days past but with quality measures applied. The second pathway is that toward Alternative Payment Models (APMs) that allow clinicians to participate in payment models that that provide rewards for higher-quality, lower-cost care with entry bonuses as high as 5%. The Virginia Cardiac Services Quality Initiative, a well-known regional quality collaborative, was awarded a federal grant as a Support and Alignment Network 2.0 in September 2016. As an awardee, the Virginia Cardiac Services Quality Initiative is offering, free of charge, educational support to clinicians to understand the Medicare Access and Children Health Plan Reauthorization Act, MIPS, and APMs. These support services will include on-site education, continual evaluation, and guided transformation of practices to move from MIPS, a very competitive and possibly very difficult system for Society of Thoracic Surgeons members, toward Advanced APMs, where they can self-direct their measurement and rewards, allowing success financially under the Medicare Access and Children Health Plan Reauthorization Act.