Behavioural and environmental risk factors associated with primary schoolchildren's overweight and obesity in urban Indonesia.

OBJECTIVES: To aid the design of nutrition interventions in low- and middle-income countries undergoing a nutrition transition, this study examined behavioural and environmental risk factors associated with childhood overweight and obesity in urban Indonesia. DESIGN: Body height and weight of children were measured to determine BMI-for-age Z-scores and childhood overweight and obesity status. A self-administered parental survey measured socio-economic background, children's diet, physical activity, screen time and parental practices. Logistic and quantile regression models were used to assess the association between risk factors and the BMI-for-age Z-score distribution. SETTING: Public primary schools in Central Jakarta, sampled at random. PARTICIPANTS: Children (n 1674) aged 6-13 years from 18 public primary schools. RESULTS: Among the children, 31·0 % were overweight or obese. The prevalence of obesity was higher in boys (21·0 %) than in girls (12·0 %). Male sex and height (aOR = 1·67; 95 % CI 1·30, 2·14 and aOR = 1·16; 95 % CI 1·14, 1·18, respectively) increased the odds of being overweight or obese, while the odds reduced with every year of age (aOR = 0·43; 95 % CI 0·37, 0·50). Maternal education was positively associated with children's BMI at the median of the Z-score distribution (P = 0·026). Dietary and physical activity risk scores were not associated with children's BMI at any quantile. The obesogenic home food environment score was significantly and positively associated with the BMI-for-age Z-score at the 75th and 90th percentiles (P = 0·022 and 0·023, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrated the demographic, behavioural and environmental risk factors for overweight and obesity among primary schoolchildren in a middle-income country. To foster healthy behaviours in primary schoolchildren, parents need to ensure a positive home food environment. Future sex-responsive interventions should involve both parents and children, promote healthy diets and physical activity and improve food environments in homes and schools.

Projecting cardiovascular deaths averted due to trans fat policies in the Eurasian Economic Union.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the potential impact on population health if policies designed to reduce population trans fatty acid (TFA) intake are successfully implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in line with the WHO's guidelines to lower intake of TFA as a percentage of total energy intake to less than 1 %. DESIGN: A projection exercise was conducted to estimate reductions in CVD-related deaths in countries of the EAEU if TFA policies are implemented in the EAEU. Plausibly causal, annual effects (in %) of Denmark's TFA policy on the evolution of CVD mortality rates were applied to project the potential effects of recently announced TFA policies in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation under three TFA exposure scenarios. SETTINGS: Member States of the EAEU: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation. PARTICIPANTS: Data used for the projection exercise were based on estimates from natural experimental evidence from Denmark. National CVD mortality rates used were from WHO and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development datasets. RESULTS: In all countries and in all scenarios, deaths averted were ≤ 5 deaths/100,000 in year 1 and rose in years 2 and 3. The highest projected impacts in the high-exposure scenario were seen in Kyrgyzstan (39 deaths/100 000), with the lowest occurring in Armenia (24 deaths/100 000). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the potential population health gains that can be derived from effective policies to reduce TFA in line with WHO guidance. Monitoring and surveillance systems are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the TFA reduction policies in a national context.

Impact of Austria's 2009 trans fatty acids regulation on all-cause, cardiovascular and coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Unhealthy diet, especially consumption of trans fatty acids (TFAs), is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), a leading cause of death in Austria. In 2009, Austria introduced a law regulating the content of TFAs in foods. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the TFA regulation on CVD-related outcomes. Methods: The study evaluated the TFA regulation as an intervention in a natural experiment. Two study periods were assessed: pre-intervention (1995-2009) and post-intervention (2010-14). The study compared the age-standardized death rates per 100 000 population for CVD outcomes with those of a 'synthetic' international comparator population, created from data of OECD countries where TFA regulation has not been implemented, but where the population is otherwise comparable. Results: There was a continuous decrease in CVD-related mortality throughout the study period in both the synthetic international comparator population, as well as in the adult Austrian population, with no significant change in this trend observed as an effect of TFA regulation. Conclusions: Whilst the results are counterintuitive, given the established link between TFA consumption and an increased risk of CVD, there are many possible explanations: high prevalence of tobacco smoking, changes in TFA content in foods due to international guidance as opposed to formal regulation and a beneficial impact of TFA regulation on sub-groups of the population that might not be detected with nationally aggregated data. However, reduction in TFAs should still be considered an important part of risk factor reduction for CVD and other non-communicable diseases.

Age-Specific Correlates of Child Growth.

Growth faltering describes a widespread phenomenon that height- and weight-for-age of children in developing countries collapse rapidly in the first two years of life. We study age-specific correlates of child nutrition using Demographic and Health Surveys from 56 developing countries to shed light on the potential drivers of growth faltering. Applying nonparametric techniques and exploiting within-mother variation, we find that maternal and household factors predict best the observed shifts and bends in child nutrition age curves. The documented interaction between age and maternal characteristics further underlines the need not only to provide nutritional support during the first years of life but also to improve maternal conditions.

Willingness to take COVID-19 vaccination in low-income countries: Evidence from Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In low-income countries, vaccination campaigns are lagging, and evidence on vaccine acceptance, a crucial public health planning input, remains scant. This is the first study that reports willingness to take COVID-19 vaccines and its socio-demographic correlates in Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous country. METHODS: The analysis is based on a nationally representative survey data of 2,317 households conducted in the informal economy in November 2020. It employs two logistic regression models where the two outcome variables are (i) a household head's willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine or not, and (ii) if yes if they would also hypothetically pay (an unspecified amount) for it or not. Predictors include age, gender, education, marital status, income category, health insurance coverage, sickness due to COVID-19, chronic illness, trust in government, prior participation in voluntary activities, urban residence. RESULTS: Willingness to take the vaccine was high (88%) and significantly associated with COVID-19 cases in the family, trust in government and pro-social behavior. All other predictors such as gender, education, income, health insurance, chronic illness, urban residence did not significantly predict vaccine willingness at the 5% level. Among those willing to take the vaccine, 33% also answered that they would hypothetically pay (an unspecified amount) for it, an answer that is significantly associated with trust in government, health insurance coverage and income. CONCLUSION: The results highlight both opportunities and challenges. There is little evidence of vaccine hesitancy in Ethiopia among household heads operating in the informal economy. The role played by trust in government and pro-social behavior in motivating this outcome suggests that policy makers need to consider these factors in the planning of COVID-19 vaccine campaigns in order to foster vaccine uptake. At the same time, as the willingness to hypothetically pay for a COVID-19 vaccine seems to be small, fairly-priced vaccines along with financial support are also needed to ensure further uptake of COVID-19 vaccines.

Use of healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in urban Ethiopia: evidence from retrospective health facility survey data.

OBJECTIVES: In recent years, Ethiopia has made enormous strides in enhancing access to healthcare, especially, maternal and child healthcare. With the onset and spread of COVID-19, the attention of the healthcare system has pivoted to handling the disease, potentially at the cost of other healthcare needs. This paper explores whether this shift has come at the cost of non-Covid related healthcare, especially the use of maternal and child health (MCH) services. SETTING: Data covering a 24-month period are drawn from 59 health centres and 29 public hospitals located in urban Ethiopia. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES: The primary outcome measures are the use of MCH services including family planning, antenatal and postnatal care, abortion care, delivery and immunisation. The secondary outcome measures are the use of health services by adults including antiretroviral therapy (ART), tuberculosis (TB) and leprosy and dental services RESULTS: There is a sharp reduction in the use of both inpatient (20%-27%, p<0.001) and outpatient (27%-34%, p<0.001) care, particularly in Addis Ababa, which has been most acutely affected by the virus. This decline does not come at the cost of MCH services. The use of several MCH components (skilled birth attendant deliveries, immunisation, postnatal care) remains unaffected throughout the period while others (family planning services, antenatal care) experience a decline (8%-17%) in the immediate aftermath but recover soon after. CONCLUSION: Concerns about the crowding out of MCH services due to the focus on COVID-19 are unfounded. Proactive measures taken by the government and healthcare facilities to ring-fence the use of essential healthcare services have mitigated service disruptions. The results underline the resilience and agility displayed by one of the world's most resource-constrained healthcare systems. Further research on the approaches used to mitigate disruptions is needed.

Snacks, nudges and asymmetric peer influence: Evidence from food choice experiments with children in Indonesia.

Many children in low- and middle-income countries are growing up during a rapid nutrition transition. Experimental evidence on food choice in developing countries is scarce, while it is unclear to what extent evidence from high-income countries can be generalized. Children participated in a snack choice experiment. We expose some children to emoji labels encouraging healthy snacks, while others observe healthy or unhealthy snacking by peers. While emoji labels moderately promote healthy snacking, the adverse effect of observing a peer eating the unhealthy snack is very large. The effect associated with observing a healthy peer is insignificant. Additionally, cross-randomized blocks of children watched a nutrition video to study the interaction of information provision and nudging. The video independently improves healthy choices but does not aid the emoji nudge and cannot counter the strong negative peer effect. We compare our findings to studies conducted in developed countries and discuss policy implications.

Who is more likely to return for TB test results? A survey at three high-burden primary healthcare facilities in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries with a high burden of tuberculosis (TB), a large proportion of people who are tested for TB do not return to the health facility to collect their test results and initiate treatment, thus putting themselves at increased risk of adverse outcomes. METHODS: This prospective study aimed to identify predictors of returning to the primary health care (PHC) facility to collect TB test results. From 15 August to 15 December 2017, 1105 people who tested for pulmonary TB at three Cape Town PHC facilities were surveyed. Using multi-variate logistic regressions on an analysis sample of 1097 people, three groups of predictors were considered: (i) demographics, health and socio-economic status; (ii) costs and benefits; and (iii) behavioural factors. RESULTS: Forty-four percent of people tested returned to the PHC facility to collect their test results within the stipulated 2 days, and 68% returned before the end of the study period. Return was strongly and positively correlated with expecting a TB-positive result, cognitive avoidance and postponement behaviour. CONCLUSION: Interventions to improve pre-treatment loss to follow-up should target patients who think they do not have TB, and those with a history of postponement behaviour and cognitive avoidance.

Adolescent Nutrition-Developing a Research Agenda for the Second Window of Opportunity in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Recently, adolescence has been identified as a second window of opportunity for the correction of nutritional inadequacies. However, there is a lack of knowledge on evidence-based integrated nutrition strategies for adolescents in Indonesia. OBJECTIVE: To provide a research agenda and the prioritization of research actions to tackle outstanding knowledge gaps on adolescent nutrition in Indonesia. METHODS: A preliminary set of research topics was listed based on a desk study of the academic literature and policy documents. Second, a stakeholder meeting was held to further identify and discuss research topics related to adolescent nutrition in Indonesia. Third, an online survey was conducted in which respondents were asked to indicate priority research themes for the next 3 to 5 years and to rank a total of 23 research questions. RESULTS: Most (52%) of the respondents who returned the survey (n = 27) prioritize research on implementation and program evaluation, while 30% prefer descriptive and explanatory research, and 19% place priority with intervention and discovery research. However, when we followed up with specific topics for each of these broad research areas, a more nuanced picture emerged, with intervention and discovery research taking a more prominent standing. CONCLUSIONS: In order to support the design, implementation, and effectiveness of integrated nutrition programs for Indonesian adolescents, in-depth studies should question the best intervention strategies, modes of delivery, and long-term outcomes, while nationwide and disaggregated data should investigate associations and trends over time and identify vulnerable groups.

The impact of the Ethiopian health extension program and health development army on maternal mortality: A synthetic control approach.

The Ethiopian government has implemented nationwide strategies to improve access to basic health services and enhance health outcomes. The Health Extension Program (HEP) launched in 2003, expanded basic health infrastructure and local human resources. In 2011, the government introduced the Health Development Army (HDA). HDA is a women-centered community movement inspired by military structures and discipline. Its special objective is to improve maternal health outcomes. This paper uses a synthetic control approach to assess the effects of HEP and HDA on maternal mortality ratios (MMR). The MMR data are from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database. A pool of 42 Sub-Saharan African countries, covering the period 1990 to 2016, is used to construct a synthetic comparator which displays a mortality trajectory similar to Ethiopia prior to the interventions. On average, since 2004, maternal mortality in the control countries exhibits a moderate downward trend. In Ethiopia, the downward trend is considerably steeper as compared to its synthetic control. By 2016, maternal mortality in Ethiopia was lower by 171 (p-value 0.048) maternal deaths per 100,000 live births as compared to its synthetic control. Between 2003 and 2016, Ethiopia's maternal mortality ratio declined from 728 to 357. These estimates suggest that a substantial proportion of this decline may be attributed to HEP/HDA. The Ethiopian experience of enhancing nation-wide access to and use of maternal health services in a short time-span is remarkable. Whether such a model may be transplanted is an open question.

Temporal stability of child growth associations in Demographic and Health Surveys in 25 countries.

BACKGROUND: Socio-economic and demographic determinants of child growth at ages 0-5 years in developing countries are well documented. However, Precision Public Health interventions and population targeting require more finely grained knowledge about the existence and character of temporal changes in child growth associations. METHODS: We evaluated the temporal stability of associations between height-for-age z-score (HAZ) of children aged 0-59 months and child, parental, household, and community and infrastructure factors by following 25 countries over time (1991-2014) in repeated cross-sections of 91 Demographic and Health Surveys using random effect models and Wald tests. RESULTS: We found that child growth displayed relatively more time stable associations with child, parental, and household factors than with community and infrastructure factors. Among the unstable associations, there was no uniform geographical pattern in terms of where they consistently increased or decreased over time. There were differences between countries in the extent of temporal instability but there was no apparent regional grouping or geographic pattern. The instability was positively and significantly correlated with annual changes in HAZ. CONCLUSIONS: These findings inform about the generalizability of results stemming from cross-sectional studies that do not consider time variation - results regarding effects of child, parental, and household factors on HAZ do not necessarily need to be re-evaluated over time whereas results regarding the effects of infrastructure and community variables need to be monitored more frequently as they are expected to change. In addition, the study may improve the Precision Public Health population targeting of interventions in different regions and times - whereas the temporal dimension seems to be important for precision targeting of community and infrastructure factors, it is not the case for child, parental, and household factors. In general, the existence of temporal instability and the direction of change varies across countries with no apparent regional pattern.

Universal health coverage at the macro level: Synthetic control evidence from Thailand.

As more and more countries are moving towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC), it is important to understand the macro level or aggregate impacts of such a policy. We use synthetic control methods to study the impact of UHC, introduced in Thailand in 2001, on various macroeconomic and health outcomes. Thailand is compared to a weighted average of control countries in terms of aggregate health financing indicators, aggregate health outcomes and economic performance, over the period 1995 to 2012. Our results suggest that UHC helps alleviate the financial consequences of illnesses. The estimated treatment effect of UHC on out-of-pocket payments as a percentage of overall health expenditures is negative 13 percentage points and its effect on annual government per capita health spending is US$ 79. We detect a smaller effect of US$ 60.8 on total health spending per capita which appears with a lag. We document positive health effects as captured by reductions in infant and child mortality. We do not find any effect on GDP and the share of the government budget devoted to health. Overall, our results complement micro evidence based on within country variation. The counterfactual design implemented here may be used to inform other countries on the macro level repercussions of UHC.

Denmark's Policy on Artificial Trans Fat and Cardiovascular Disease.

INTRODUCTION: The consumption of trans fat is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). In January 2004, Denmark became the first country in the world to regulate the content of artificial trans fat in certain ingredients in food products, which nearly eliminated artificial trans fat from the Danish food supply. The goal of this study was to assess whether Denmark's trans fat policy reduced deaths caused by CVD. METHODS: Annual mortality rates in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1990 to 2012 were used to estimate the effect of Denmark's food policy on CVD mortality rates. Synthetic control methods were employed to simulate the CVD mortality trajectory that Denmark would have witnessed in the absence of the policy and to measure the policy's impact on CVD mortality rates. Analyses were conducted in 2015. RESULTS: Before the trans fat policy was implemented, CVD mortality rates in Denmark closely tracked those of a weighted average of other OECD countries (i.e., the synthetic control group). In the years before the policy, the annual mean was 441.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Denmark and 442.7 in the synthetic control group. In the 3 years after the policy was implemented, mortality attributable to CVD decreased on average by about 14.2 deaths per 100,000 people per year in Denmark relative to the synthetic control group. CONCLUSIONS: Denmark's food policy, which restricted the content of artificial trans fat in certain ingredients in its food supply, has been followed by a decrease in CVD mortality rates.

Trans fat and cardiovascular disease mortality: Evidence from bans in restaurants in New York.

This paper analyzes the impact of trans fat bans on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates. Several New York State jurisdictions have restricted the use of ingredients containing artificial trans fat in food service establishments. The resulting within-county variation over time and the differential timing of the policy's rollout is used in estimation. The results indicate that the policy caused a 4.5% reduction in CVD mortality rates, or 13 fewer CVD deaths per 100,000 persons per year. The averted deaths can be valued at about $3.9 million per 100,000 persons annually.

Risk aversion, time preference and health production: theory and empirical evidence from Cambodia.

This paper quantifies the relationship between risk aversion and discount rates on the one hand and height and weight on the other. It studies this link in the context of poor households in Cambodia. Evidence is based on an original dataset that contains both experimental measures of risk taking and impatience along with anthropometric measurements of children and adults. The aim of the paper is to (i) explore the importance of risk and time preferences in explaining undernutrition and (ii) compare the evidence stemming from poor households to strikingly similar findings from industrialized countries. It uses an inter-generational approach to explain observed correlations in adults and children that is inspired by the height premium on labor markets. Parents can invest in the health capital of their child to increase future earnings and their consumption when old: better nutrition during infancy translates into better human capital and better wages, and ultimately better financial means to take care of elderly parents. However this investment is subject to considerable uncertainty, since parents neither perfectly foresee economic conditions when the child starts earning nor fully observe the ability to transform nutritional investments into long-term health capital. As a result, risk taking households have taller and heavier children. Conversely, impatience does not affect child health. In the case of adults, only weight and the body mass index (BMI), but not height, are positively and moderately correlated with risk taking and impatience.

Child health, its dynamic interaction with nutrition and health memory--evidence from Senegal.

Child malnutrition is pervasive in developing countries and anthropometric measures such as weight-for-height and height-for-age have proven reliable indicators of short term malnutrition and stunting. Rather than studying these indicators separately, we look at their interaction and carve out child health dynamics. Considering height-for-age a child's health stock and weight-for-lagged height a proxy for nutritional inputs, we develop a child health production function that features self-productivity of past health stocks and contemporaneous nutritional inputs. We test the model on a Senegalese panel of 271 children between 0 and 5 years employing dynamic panel methods to control for endogeneity in the production function. In line with previous evidence, we find that children can partially catch-up from malnutrition spells. Yet, child health stocks also deplete quickly and need constant updating in the form of nutrition. This demonstrates the importance of health memory and that malnutrition cannot be fought with snapshot interventions. Consequently, sustainable nutrition interventions have to be long term and yield higher returns the earlier they reach children.

On the generality of age differences in social and nonsocial decision making.

OBJECTIVES: Empirical work with western populations suggests that aging is associated with changes in economic decision making, including, for example, increased prosocial tendencies. We investigated the generality of age effects in social and nonsocial domains by assessing various measures of economic decision making in a rural population from Morocco. METHOD: We measured age/cohort differences using a number of economic games (risk game, time preferences game, dictator game, trust game, and public goods game) in over 700 participants ranging from 17 to 92 years of age. RESULTS: The results suggest a negative relation between age and risk taking and a concave relation between age and contribution to a public good, but no significant age trends in time preferences, altruism, trust, or trustworthiness. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that the relationship between aging and decision making is not universal and is shaped by local culture and the type of task rather than biological factors alone. More research is needed to understand the unique age trends prevalent in specific populations and tasks.

Trust and trustworthiness in young and older adults.

In a series of 1-shot economic trust games in which participants could make real monetary profits, but also risked losing money, 2 studies compared young and older adults' trust (amount invested with trustees) and trustworthiness (amount returned to investors by trustees). In Study 1, young (n = 35) and older (n = 32) participants acted as investors, and the age of simulated trustees (young, older) was manipulated. In Study 2, young (n = 61) and older (n = 67) participants acted in real life as both investors and trustees. They completed 2 face-to-face trust games with same- and other-age partners, and 3 anonymous trust games with same-, other-, and unknown-age partners. Study 1 found that young and older participants rate older trustees as appearing more trustworthy than young trustees, but neither group invest more with older than young trustees. Rather, older participants were more likely than young participants to invest money averaged across trustee age. In Study 2, there were no age-related differences in trust, but older adults were more trustworthy than young adults in anonymous games with same- and unknown-age partners. It was also found that young adults demonstrate greater reputational concerns than older adults by reciprocating more trust when face-to-face than anonymous. We discuss the complex influences of age on trust game investing and reciprocation, as well as the implications for older adults' wellbeing and financial security.