A Dynamic Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Part 1 - Model Framework.

A mechanistic, multistate, mathematical model of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was developed by including key biological mechanisms in blood and gut, including cell differentiation, cytokine production, and clinical biomarkers. The model structure is consistent between healthy volunteers and IBD disease phenotype, with 24 parameters changed between diseases. Modular nature of the model allows for easy incorporation of new mechanisms or modification of existing interactions. Model simulations for steady-state levels of proteins and cells in the blood and gut using a population approach are consistent with published data. By simulating the response of two clinical biomarkers, C-reactive protein and fecal calprotectin, to parameter perturbations, the model explores hypotheses for possible treatment mechanisms. With additional experimental validation and addition of drug treatments, the model provides a platform to test hypothesis on treatment effects in IBD.

A Dynamic Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Part 2 - Application to Current Therapies in Crohn's Disease.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a heterogeneic disease with a variety of treatments targeting different mechanisms. A multistate, mechanistic, mathematical model of IBD was developed in part 1 of this two-part article series. In this paper, application of the model to predict response of key clinical biomarkers following different treatment options for Crohn's disease was explored. Five therapies, representing four different mechanisms of action, were simulated in the model and longitudinal profiles of key clinical markers, C-reactive protein and fecal calprotectin were compared with clinical observations. Model simulations provided an accurate match with both central tendency and variability observed in biomarker profiles. We also applied the model to predict biomarker and clinical response in an experimental, combination therapy of existing therapeutic options and provide possible mechanistic basis for the increased response. Overall, we present a validated, modular, mechanistic model construct, which can be applied to explore key biomarkers and clinical outcomes in IBD.

An Effective Model of the Retinoic Acid Induced HL-60 Differentiation Program.

In this study, we present an effective model All-Trans Retinoic Acid (ATRA)-induced differentiation of HL-60 cells. The model describes reinforcing feedback between an ATRA-inducible signalsome complex involving many proteins including Vav1, a guanine nucleotide exchange factor, and the activation of the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade. We decomposed the effective model into three modules; a signal initiation module that sensed and transformed an ATRA signal into program activation signals; a signal integration module that controlled the expression of upstream transcription factors; and a phenotype module which encoded the expression of functional differentiation markers from the ATRA-inducible transcription factors. We identified an ensemble of effective model parameters using measurements taken from ATRA-induced HL-60 cells. Using these parameters, model analysis predicted that MAPK activation was bistable as a function of ATRA exposure. Conformational experiments supported ATRA-induced bistability. Additionally, the model captured intermediate and phenotypic gene expression data. Knockout analysis suggested Gfi-1 and PPARg were critical to the ATRAinduced differentiation program. These findings, combined with other literature evidence, suggested that reinforcing feedback is central to hyperactive signaling in a diversity of cell fate programs.