Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise.

Coastal wetlands (mangrove, tidal marsh and seagrass) sustain the highest rates of carbon sequestration per unit area of all natural systems1,2, primarily because of their comparatively high productivity and preservation of organic carbon within sedimentary substrates3. Climate change and associated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) have been proposed to increase the rate of organic-carbon burial in coastal wetlands in the first half of the twenty-first century4, but these carbon-climate feedback effects have been modelled to diminish over time as wetlands are increasingly submerged and carbon stores become compromised by erosion4,5. Here we show that tidal marshes on coastlines that experienced rapid RSLR over the past few millennia (in the late Holocene, from about 4,200 years ago to the present) have on average 1.7 to 3.7 times higher soil carbon concentrations within 20 centimetres of the surface than those subject to a long period of sea-level stability. This disparity increases with depth, with soil carbon concentrations reduced by a factor of 4.9 to 9.1 at depths of 50 to 100 centimetres. We analyse the response of a wetland exposed to recent rapid RSLR following subsidence associated with pillar collapse in an underlying mine and demonstrate that the gain in carbon accumulation and elevation is proportional to the accommodation space (that is, the space available for mineral and organic material accumulation) created by RSLR. Our results suggest that coastal wetlands characteristic of tectonically stable coastlines have lower carbon storage owing to a lack of accommodation space and that carbon sequestration increases according to the vertical and lateral accommodation space6 created by RSLR. Such wetlands will provide long-term mitigating feedback effects that are relevant to global climate-carbon modelling.

Ecotourism and mangrove conservation in Southeast Asia: Current trends and perspectives.

Mangroves in Southeast Asia provide numerous supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that are crucial to the environment and local livelihoods since they support biodiversity conservation and climate change resilience. However, Southeast Asia mangroves face deforestation threats from the expansion of commercial aquaculture, agriculture, and urban development, along with climate change-related natural processes. Ecotourism has gained prominence as a financial incentive tool to support mangrove conservation and restoration. Through a systematic literature review approach, we examined the relationships between ecotourism and mangrove conservation in Southeast Asia based on scientific papers published from 2010 to 2022. Most of the studies were reported in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, respectively, which were associated with the highest number of vibrant mangrove ecotourism sites and largest mangrove areas compared to the other countries of Southeast Asia. Mangrove-related ecotourism activities in the above countries mainly include boat tours, bird and wildlife watching, mangrove planting, kayaking, eating seafood, and snorkeling. The economic benefits, such as an increase in income associated with mangrove ecotourism, have stimulated infrastructural development in ecotourism destinations. Local communities benefited from increased access to social amenities such as clean water, electricity, transportation networks, schools, and health services that are intended to make destinations more attractive to tourists. Economic benefits from mangrove ecotourism motivated the implementation of several community-based mangrove conservation and restoration initiatives, which attracted international financial incentives and public-private partnerships. Since mangroves are mostly located on the land occupied by indigenous people and local communities, ensuring respect for their land rights and equity in economic benefit sharing may increase their intrinsic motivation and participation in mangrove restoration and conservation initiatives. Remote sensing tools for mangrove monitoring, evaluation, and reporting, and integrated education and awareness campaigns can ensure the long-term conservation of mangroves while sustaining ecotourism's economic infrastructure and social amenities benefits.

Mangrove expansion on the low wooded islands of the Great Barrier Reef.

Mangrove forests are the dominant vegetation growing on low wooded islands, which occur in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans. In the northern Great Barrier Reef, we map remarkable, undocumented mangrove forest extension on 10 low wooded islands in the Howick Group that collectively equates to an area of 667 000 m2 (66.7 ha). We combine extensive field survey with canopy height models derived from RPA imagery and allometric scaling to quantify above ground biomass in both old (pre-1973) and new (post-1973) forest areas. Forest expansion added approximately 10 233 tonnes of new biomass since the early 1970s. We suggest that such substantial expansion of mangrove forest has occurred within a short time span in response to changing environmental controls. These may include sea-level rise, sediment transport and deposition, cyclone impact and the development of associated reef flat sedimentary landforms including unconsolidated and lithified shingle ridges, which influence reef flat hydrodynamics. Our observations highlight the globally dynamic response of mangrove distribution and forest structure to environmental change and provide timely new estimates from understudied reef island settings.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Mangrove dynamics and blue carbon sequestration.

We monitored coastal wetland vertical accretion, elevation gain and surface carbon (C) at Homebush Bay, Australia over 18 years (2000-2017) in three settings initially characterized by saltmarsh, mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone and mangrove-dominated zones. During this time, the saltmarsh transitioned to mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone, and the mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone transitioned to mangrove, consistent with vegetation transitions observed across the east Australian continent in recent decades. In spite of mangrove recruitment and thickening in the former saltmarsh zone, and the dominance of mangrove root material as a contributing C source, the rate of C accumulation in the former saltmarsh zone did not change over the study period, and there was no significant increase in surface elevation. This contrasted with the response of sites with a longer history of mangrove colonization, which showed strong accretion and C accumulation over the period. The result suggests that the C accumulation and surface elevation gains made as a result of mangrove colonization may not be observable over initial decades, but will be significant in the longer term as forests reach maturity.

Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes.

Salt marsh and mangrove have been recognized as being among the most valuable ecosystem types globally in terms of their supply of ecosystem services and support for human livelihoods. These coastal ecosystems are also susceptible to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, with evidence of global shifts in the distribution of mangroves, including encroachment into salt marshes. The encroachment of woody mangrove shrubs and trees into herbaceous salt marshes may represent a substantial change in ecosystem structure, although resulting impacts on ecosystem functions and service provisions are largely unknown. In this review, we assess changes in ecosystem services associated with mangrove encroachment. While there is quantitative evidence to suggest that mangrove encroachment may enhance carbon storage and the capacity of a wetland to increase surface elevation in response to sea-level rise, for most services there has been no direct assessment of encroachment impact. On the basis of current understanding of ecosystem structure and function, we theorize that mangrove encroachment may increase nutrient storage and improve storm protection, but cause declines in habitat availability for fauna requiring open vegetation structure (such as migratory birds and foraging bats) as well as the recreational and cultural activities associated with this fauna (e.g., birdwatching and/or hunting). Changes to provisional services such as fisheries productivity and cultural services are likely to be site specific and dependent on the species involved. We discuss the need for explicit experimental testing of the effects of encroachment on ecosystem services in order to address key knowledge gaps, and present an overview of the options available to coastal resource managers during a time of environmental change.

Woody plant encroachment of grasslands: a comparison of terrestrial and wetland settings.

A global trend of woody plant encroachment of terrestrial grasslands is co-incident with woody plant encroachment of wetland in freshwater and saline intertidal settings. There are several arguments for considering tree encroachment of wetlands in the context of woody shrub encroachment of grassland biomes. In both cases, delimitation of woody shrubs at regional scales is set by temperature thresholds for poleward extent, and by aridity within temperature limits. Latitudinal expansion has been observed for terrestrial woody shrubs and mangroves, following recent warming, but most expansion and thickening has been due to the occupation of previously water-limited grassland/saltmarsh environments. Increases in atmospheric CO2, may facilitate the recruitment of trees in terrestrial and wetland settings. Improved water relations, a mechanism that would predict higher soil moisture in grasslands and saltmarshes, and also an enhanced capacity to survive arid conditions, reinforces local mechanisms of change. The expansion of woody shrubs and mangroves provides a negative feedback on elevated atmospheric CO2 by increasing carbon sequestration in grassland and saltmarsh, and is a significant carbon sink globally. These broad-scale vegetation shifts may represent a new stable state, reinforced by positive feedbacks between global change drivers and endogenic mechanisms of persistence in the landscape.

Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits.

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Foundation Species.

Marine foundation species are the biotic basis for many of the world's coastal ecosystems, providing structural habitat, food, and protection for myriad plants and animals as well as many ecosystem services. However, climate change poses a significant threat to foundation species and the ecosystems they support. We review the impacts of climate change on common marine foundation species, including corals, kelps, seagrasses, salt marsh plants, mangroves, and bivalves. It is evident that marine foundation species have already been severely impacted by several climate change drivers, often through interactive effects with other human stressors, such as pollution, overfishing, and coastal development. Despite considerable variation in geographical, environmental, and ecological contexts, direct and indirect effects of gradual warming and subsequent heatwaves have emerged as the most pervasive drivers of observed impact and potent threat across all marine foundation species, but effects from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and increased storminess are expected to increase. Documented impacts include changes in the genetic structures, physiology, abundance, and distribution of the foundation species themselves and changes to their interactions with other species, with flow-on effects to associated communities, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. We discuss strategies to support marine foundation species into the Anthropocene, in order to increase their resilience and ensure the persistence of the ecosystem services they provide.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions.

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Remote sensing-based mangrove blue carbon assessment in the Asia-Pacific: A systematic review.

Accurate measuring, mapping, and monitoring of mangrove forests support the sustainable management of mangrove blue carbon in the Asia-Pacific. Remote sensing coupled with modeling can efficiently and accurately estimate mangrove blue carbon stocks at larger spatiotemporal extents. This study aimed to identify trends in remote sensing/modeling employed in estimating mangrove blue carbon, attributes/variations in mangrove carbon sequestration estimated using remote sensing, and to compile research gaps and opportunities, followed by providing recommendations for future research. Using a systematic literature review approach, we reviewed 105 remote sensing-based peer-reviewed articles (1990 - June 2023). Despite their high mangrove extent, there was a paucity of studies from Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Papua New Guinea. The most frequently used sensor was Sentinel-2 MSI, accounting for 14.5 % of overall usage, followed by Landsat 8 OLI (11.5 %), ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 (7.3 %), ALOS PALSAR (7.2 %), Landsat 7 ETM+ (6.1 %), Sentinel-1 (6.7 %), Landsat 5 TM (5.5 %), SRTM DEM (5.5 %), and UAV-LiDAR (4.8 %). Although parametric methods like linear regression remain the most widely used, machine learning regression models such as Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boost (XGB) have become popular in recent years and have shown good accuracy. Among a variety of attributes estimated, below-ground mangrove blue carbon and the valuation of carbon stock were less studied. The variation in carbon sequestration potential as a result of location, species, and forest type was widely studied. To improve the accuracy of blue carbon measurements, standardized/coordinated and innovative methodologies accompanied by credible information and actionable data should be carried out. Technical monitoring (every 2-5 years) enhanced by remote sensing can provide accurate and precise data for sustainable mangrove management while opening ventures for voluntary carbon markets to benefit the environment and local livelihood in developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Application of thresholds of potential concern and limits of acceptable change in the condition assessment of a significant wetland.

We propose a framework in which thresholds of potential concern (TPCs) and limits of acceptable change (LACs) are used in concert in the assessment of wetland condition and vulnerability and apply the framework in a case study. The lower Murrumbidgee River floodplain (the 'Lowbidgee') is one of the most ecologically important wetlands in Australia and the focus of intense management intervention by State and Federal government agencies. We used a targeted management stakeholder workshop to identify key values that contribute to the ecological significance of the Lowbidgee floodplain, and identified LACs that, if crossed, would signify the loss of significance. We then used conceptual models linking the condition of these values (wetland vegetation communities, waterbirds, fish species and the endangered southern bell frog) to measurable threat indicators, for which we defined a management goal and a TPC. We applied this framework to data collected across 70 wetland storages', or eco-hydrological units, at the peak of a prolonged drought (2008) and following extensive re-flooding (2010). At the suggestion of water and wetland mangers, we neither aggregated nor integrated indices but reported separately in a series of chloropleth maps. The resulting assessment clearly identified the effect of rewetting in restoring indicators within TPC in most cases, for most storages. The scale of assessment was useful in informing the targeted and timely management intervention and provided a context for retaining and utilising monitoring information in an adaptive management context.

The lunar nodal cycle controls mangrove canopy cover on the Australian continent.

Long-phase (interannual) tidal cycles have been shown to influence coastal flooding and sedimentation, but their role in shaping the extent and condition of tidal wetlands has received little attention. Here, we show that the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle, popularly termed the "lunar wobble," is a dominant control over the expansion and contraction of mangrove canopy cover over much of the Australian continent. Furthermore, the contrasting phasing of the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal settings has mediated the severity of drought impacts in northern bioregions. Long-phase tidal cycles regulate maximum tide heights, are an important control over mangrove canopy cover, and may influence mangrove ecosystem services including forest productivity and carbon sequestration at regional scales.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Mangroves give cause for conservation optimism, for now.

Friess et al. discuss the results of conservation efforts for mangrove forests in recent years.

Impacts of land reclamation on tidal marsh 'blue carbon' stocks.

Tidal marsh ecosystems are among earth's most efficient natural organic carbon (C) sinks and provide myriad ecosystem services. However, approximately half have been 'reclaimed' - i.e. converted to other land uses - potentially turning them into sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we applied C stock measurements and paleoanalytical techniques to sediments from reclaimed and intact tidal marshes in southeast Australia. We aimed to assess the impacts of reclamation on: 1) the magnitude of existing sediment C stocks; 2) ongoing C sequestration and storage; and 3) C quality. Differences in sediment horizon depths (indicated by Itrax-XRF scanning) and ages (indicated by lead-210 and radiocarbon dating) suggest a physical loss of sediments following reclamation, as well as slowing of sediment accumulation rates. Sediments at one meter depth were between ~2000 and ~5300 years older in reclaimed cores compared to intact marsh cores. We estimate a 70% loss of sediment C in reclaimed sites (equal to 73 Mg C ha-1), relative to stocks in intact tidal marshes during a comparable time period. Following reclamation, sediment C was characterized by coarse particulate organic matter with lower alkyl-o-alkyl ratios and higher amounts of aromatic C, suggesting a lower extent of decomposition and therefore lower likelihood of being incorporated into long-term C stocks compared to that of intact tidal marshes. We conclude that reclamation of tidal marshes can diminish C stocks that have accumulated over millennial time scales, and these losses may go undetected if additional analyses are not employed in conjunction with C stock estimates.

Redating the earliest evidence of the mid-Holocene relative sea-level highstand in Australia and implications for global sea-level rise.

Reconstructing past sea levels can help constrain uncertainties surrounding the rate of change, magnitude, and impacts of the projected increase through the 21st century. Of significance is the mid-Holocene relative sea-level highstand in tectonically stable and remote (far-field) locations from major ice sheets. The east coast of Australia provides an excellent arena in which to investigate changes in relative sea level during the Holocene. Considerable debate surrounds both the peak level and timing of the east coast highstand. The southeast Australian site of Bulli Beach provides the earliest evidence for the establishment of a highstand in the Southern Hemisphere, although questions have been raised about the pretreatment and type of material that was radiocarbon dated for the development of the regional sea-level curve. Here we undertake a detailed morpho- and chronostratigraphic study at Bulli Beach to better constrain the timing of the Holocene highstand in eastern Australia. In contrast to wood and charcoal samples that may provide anomalously old ages, probably due to inbuilt age, we find that short-lived terrestrial plant macrofossils provide a robust chronological framework. Bayesian modelling of the ages provide improved dating of the earliest evidence for a highstand at 6,880±50 cal BP, approximately a millennium later than previously reported. Our results from Bulli now closely align with other sea-level reconstructions along the east coast of Australia, and provide evidence for a synchronous relative sea-level highstand that extends from the Gulf of Carpentaria to Tasmania. Our refined age appears to be coincident with major ice mass loss from Northern Hemisphere and Antarctic ice sheets, supporting previous studies that suggest these may have played a role in the relative sea-level highstand. Further work is now needed to investigate the environmental impacts of regional sea levels, and refine the timing of the subsequent sea-level fall in the Holocene and its influence on coastal evolution.

Validation and Comparison of a Model of the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands.

Models are used to project coastal wetland distribution under future sea-level rise scenarios to assist decision-making. Model validation and comparison was used to investigate error and uncertainty in the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, a readily available model with minimal validation, particularly for wetlands beyond North America. Accurate parameterisation is required to improve the performance of the model, and indeed any spatial model. Consideration of tidal attenuation further enhances model performance, particularly for coastal wetlands located within estuaries along wave-dominated coastlines. The model does not simulate vegetation changes that are known to occur, particularly when sedimentation exceeds rates of sea-level rise resulting in shoreline progradation. Model performance was reasonable over decadal timescales, decreasing as the time-scale of retrospection increased due to compounding of errors. Comparison with other deterministic models showed reasonable agreement by 2100. However, given the uncertainty of the future and the unpredictable nature of coastal wetlands, it is difficult to ascertain which model could be realistic enough to meet its intended purpose. Model validation and comparison are useful for assessing model efficacy and parameterisation, and should be applied before application of any spatially explicit model of coastal wetland response to sea-level rise.

The extent of mangrove change and potential for recovery following severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Hinchinbrook Island, Queensland, Australia.

Cyclones are significant drivers of change within mangrove ecosystems with the extent of initial damage determined by storm severity, location and distribution (exposure), and influenced by species composition and structure (e.g., height). The long-term recovery of mangroves is often dependent upon hydrological regimes, as well as the frequency of storm events. On February 3, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi (Category 5) made landfall on the coast of north Queensland Australia with its path crossing the extensive mangroves within and surrounding Hinchinbrook Island National Park. Based on a combination of Landsat-derived foliage projective cover (FPC), Queensland Globe aerial imagery, and RapidEye imagery, 16% of the 13,795 ha of mangroves experienced severe windthrow during the storm. The greatest damage from the cyclone was inflicted on mangrove forests dominated primarily by Rhizophora stylosa, whose large prop roots were unable to support them as wind speeds exceeded 280 km/hr. Classification of 2016 RapidEye data indicated that many areas of damage had experienced no or very limited recovery in the period following the cyclone, with this confirmed by a rapid decline in Landsat-derived FPC (from levels > 90% from 1986 to just prior to the cyclone to < 20% postcyclone) and no noticeable increase in subsequent years. Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS-1) Phased Arrayed L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) L-band HH backscatter also increased initially and rapidly to 5 ± 2 dB (2007-2011) due to the increase in woody debris but then decreased subsequently to -20 ± 2 dB (postcyclone), as this decomposed or was removed. The lack of recovery in affected areas was attributed to the inability of mangrove species, particularly R. stylosa, to resprout from remaining plant material and persistent inundation due to a decrease in sediment elevation thereby preventing propagule establishment. This study indicates that increases in storm intensity predicted with changes in global climate may lead to a reduction in the area, diversity, and abundance of mangroves surrounding Hinchinbrook Island.