Evidence that a national REDD+ program reduces tree cover loss and carbon emissions in a high forest cover, low deforestation country.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is a climate change mitigation policy in which rich countries provide payments to developing countries for protecting their forests. In 2009, the countries of Norway and Guyana entered into one of the first bilateral REDD+ programs, with Norway offering to pay US$250 million to Guyana if annual deforestation rates remained below 0.056% from 2010 to 2015. To quantify the impact of this national REDD+ program, we construct a counterfactual times-series trajectory of annual tree cover loss using synthetic matching. This analytical approach allows us to quantify tree cover loss that would have occurred in the absence of the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program. We found that the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program reduced tree cover loss by 35% during the implementation period (2010 to 2015), equivalent to 12.8 million tons of avoided CO2 emissions. Our analysis indicates that national REDD+ payments attenuated the effect of increases in gold prices, an internationally traded commodity that is the primary deforestation driver in Guyana. Overall, we found strong evidence that the program met the additionality criteria of REDD+. However, we found that tree cover loss increased after the payments ended, and therefore, our results suggest that without continued payments, forest protection is not guaranteed. On the issue of leakage, which is complex and difficult to quantify, a multinational REDD+ program for a region could address leakage that results from differences in forest policies between neighboring countries.

Effects of ecotourism on forest loss in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot based on counterfactual analyses.

Ecotourism is developing rapidly in biodiversity hotspots worldwide, but there is limited and mixed empirical evidence that ecotourism achieves positive biodiversity outcomes. We assessed whether ecotourism influenced forest loss rates and trajectories from 2000 to 2017 in Himalayan temperate forests. We compared forest loss in 15 ecotourism hubs with nonecotourism areas in 4 Himalayan countries. We used matching statistics to control for local-level determinants of forest loss, for example, population density, market access, and topography. None of the ecotourism hubs was free of forest loss, and we found limited evidence that forest-loss trajectories in ecotourism hubs were different from those in nonecotourism areas. In Nepal and Bhutan, differences in forest loss rates between ecotourism hubs and matched nonecotourism areas did not differ significantly, and the magnitude of the estimated effect was small. In India, where overall forest loss rates were the lowest of any country in our analysis, forest loss rates were higher in ecotourism hubs than in matched nonecotourism areas. In contrast, in China, where overall forest loss rates were highest, forest loss rates were lower in ecotourism hubs than where there was no ecotourism. Our results suggest that the success of ecotourism as a forest conservation strategy, as it is currently practiced in the Himalaya, is context dependent. In a region with high deforestation pressures, ecotourism may be a relatively environmentally friendly form of economic development relative to other development strategies. However, ecotourism may stimulate forest loss in regions where deforestation rates are low.

Efectos del Ecoturismo sobre la Pérdida de Bosques en el Punto Caliente de Biodiversidad en el Himalaya con base en Análisis Contrafactuales Resumen El ecoturismo está desarrollándose rápidamente en los puntos calientes de biodiversidad en todo el mundo, pero existe evidencia empírica mixta y limitada de los resultados positivos que se logran con el ecoturismo. Valoramos si el ecoturismo influyó sobre las tasas de pérdida forestal y sus trayectorias entre el 2000 y el 2017 en los bosques templados del Himalaya. Comparamos la pérdida forestal en quince focos ecoturísticos con la pérdida forestal en las áreas sin ecoturismo de cuatro países del Himalaya. Utilizamos estadística correspondiente para controlar las determinantes a nivel local de la pérdida del bosque, por ejemplo, la densidad poblacional, el acceso al mercado y la topografía. Ninguno de los focos ecoturísticos estaba libre de pérdida forestal, además de que encontramos evidencia limitada de que las trayectorias de la pérdida forestal en los focos ecoturísticos eran diferentes a las trayectorias en las áreas sin ecoturismo. En Nepal y en Bután, las diferencias en la pérdida forestal entre los focos ecoturísticos y las áreas sin ecoturismo correspondidas no difirieron significativamente y la magnitud del efecto estimado fue menor. En la India, donde las tasas generales de pérdida forestal fueron las más bajas de cualquier país en nuestro análisis, las tasas de pérdida forestal fueron más altas en los focos ecoturísticos que en las áreas sin ecoturismo correspondidas. Como contraste, en China, donde las tasas generales de pérdida forestal fueron más altas, las tasas de pérdida forestal fueron más bajas en los focos ecoturísticos que en donde no existe el ecoturismo. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el éxito del ecoturismo como estrategia de conservación del bosque, a como se práctica actualmente en el Himalaya, depende del contexto. En una región con presiones altas de deforestación, el ecoturismo puede ser una forma de desarrollo económico relativamente amigable con el ambiente comparado con otras estrategias de desarrollo. Sin embargo, el ecoturismo puede estimular la pérdida forestal en regiones en las que las tasas de deforestación son bajas.

Trade-offs between carbon stocks and timber recovery in tropical forests are mediated by logging intensity.

Forest degradation accounts for ~70% of total carbon losses from tropical forests. Substantial emissions are from selective logging, a land-use activity that decreases forest carbon density. To maintain carbon values in selectively logged forests, climate change mitigation policies and government agencies promote the adoption of reduced-impact logging (RIL) practices. However, whether RIL will maintain both carbon and timber values in managed tropical forests over time remains uncertain. In this study, we quantify the recovery of timber stocks and aboveground carbon at an experimental site where forests were subjected to different intensities of RIL (4, 8, and 16 trees/ha). Our census data span 20 years postlogging and 17 years after the liberation of future crop trees from competition in a tropical forest on the Guiana Shield, a globally important forest carbon reservoir. We model recovery of timber and carbon with a breakpoint regression that allowed us to capture elevated tree mortality immediately after logging. Recovery rates of timber and carbon were governed by the presence of residual trees (i.e., trees that persisted through the first harvest). The liberation treatment stimulated faster recovery of timber albeit at a carbon cost. Model results suggest a threshold logging intensity beyond which forests managed for timber and carbon derive few benefits from RIL, with recruitment and residual growth not sufficient to offset losses. Inclusion of the breakpoint at which carbon and timber gains outpaced postlogging mortality led to high predictive accuracy, including out-of-sample R2 values >90%, and enabled inference on demographic changes postlogging. Our modeling framework is broadly applicable to studies that aim to quantify impacts of logging on forest recovery. Overall, we demonstrate that initial mortality drives variation in recovery rates, that the second harvest depends on old growth wood, and that timber intensification lowers carbon stocks.

Detecting gold mining impacts on insect biodiversity in a tropical mining frontier with SmallSat imagery.

Gold mining is a major driver of Amazonian forest loss and degradation. As mining activity encroaches on primary forest in remote and inaccessible areas, satellite imagery provides crucial data for monitoring mining-related deforestation. High-resolution imagery, in particular, has shown promise for detecting artisanal gold mining at the forest frontier. An important next step will be to establish relationships between satellite-derived land cover change and biodiversity impacts of gold mining. In this study, we set out to detect artisanal gold mining using high-resolution imagery and relate mining land cover to insects, a taxonomic group that accounts for the majority of faunal biodiversity in tropical forests. We applied an object-based image analysis (OBIA) to classify mined areas in an Indigenous territory in Guyana, using PlanetScope imagery with ~3.7 m resolution. We complemented our OBIA with field surveys of insect family presence or absence in field plots (n = 105) that captured a wide range of mining disturbances. Our OBIA was able to identify mined objects with high accuracy (>90% balanced accuracy). Field plots with a higher proportion of OBIA-derived mine cover had significantly lower insect family richness. The effects of mine cover on individual insect taxa were highly variable. Insect groups that respond strongly to mining disturbance could potentially serve as bioindicators for monitoring ecosystem health during and after gold mining. With the advent of global partnerships that provide universal access to PlanetScope imagery for tropical forest monitoring, our approach represents a low-cost and rapid way to assess the biodiversity impacts of gold mining in remote landscapes.

Removing climbers more than doubles tree growth and biomass in degraded tropical forests.

Huge areas of tropical forests are degraded, reducing their biodiversity, carbon, and timber value. The recovery of these degraded forests can be significantly inhibited by climbing plants such as lianas. Removal of super-abundant climbers thus represents a restoration action with huge potential for application across the tropics. While experimental studies largely report positive impacts of climber removal on tree growth and biomass accumulation, the efficacy of climber removal varies widely, with high uncertainty as to where and how to apply the technique. Using meta-analytic techniques, we synthesize results from 26 studies to quantify the efficacy of climber removal for promoting tree growth and biomass accumulation. We find that climber removal increases tree growth by 156% and biomass accumulation by 209% compared to untreated forest, and that efficacy remains for at least 19 years. Extrapolating from these results, climber removal could sequester an additional 32 Gigatons of CO2 over 10 years, at low cost, across regrowth, and production forests. Our analysis also revealed that climber removal studies are concentrated in the Neotropics (N = 22), relative to Africa (N = 2) and Asia (N = 2), preventing our study from assessing the influence of region on removal efficacy. While we found some evidence that enhancement of tree growth and AGB accumulation varies across disturbance context and removal method, but not across climate, the number and geographical distribution of studies limits the strength of these conclusions. Climber removal could contribute significantly to reducing global carbon emissions and enhancing the timber and biomass stocks of degraded forests, ultimately protecting them from conversion. However, we urgently need to assess the efficacy of removal outside the Neotropics, and consider the potential negative consequences of climber removal under drought conditions and for biodiversity.

Sustained timber yield claims, considerations, and tradeoffs for selectively logged forests.

What is meant by sustainability depends on what is sustained and at what level. Sustainable forest management, for example, requires maintenance of a variety of values not the least of which is sustained timber yields (STYs). For the 1 Bha of the world's forests subjected to selective or partial logging, failure to maintain yields can be hidden by regulatory requirements and questionable auditing practices such as increasing the number of commercial species with each harvest, reducing the minimum size at which trees can be harvested and accepting logs of lower quality. For assertions of STY to be credible, clarity is needed about all these issues, as well as about the associated ecological and economic tradeoffs. Lack of clarity about sustainability heightens risks of unsubstantiated claims and unseen losses. STY is possible but often requires cutting cycles that are longer and logging intensities that are lower than prescribed by law, as well as effective use of low-impact logging practices and application of silvicultural treatments to promote timber stock recovery. These departures from business-as-usual practices will lower profit margins but generally benefit biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Rapid tree carbon stock recovery in managed Amazonian forests.

While around 20% of the Amazonian forest has been cleared for pastures and agriculture, one fourth of the remaining forest is dedicated to wood production. Most of these production forests have been or will be selectively harvested for commercial timber, but recent studies show that even soon after logging, harvested stands retain much of their tree-biomass carbon and biodiversity. Comparing species richness of various animal taxa among logged and unlogged forests across the tropics, Burivalova et al. found that despite some variability among taxa, biodiversity loss was generally explained by logging intensity (the number of trees extracted). Here, we use a network of 79 permanent sample plots (376 ha total) located at 10 sites across the Amazon Basin to assess the main drivers of time-to-recovery of post-logging tree carbon (Table S1). Recovery time is of direct relevance to policies governing management practices (i.e., allowable volumes cut and cutting cycle lengths), and indirectly to forest-based climate change mitigation interventions.