Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission.

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing its introduction and transmission in wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemiological model to investigate the spillover risk and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in wild and captive white-tailed deer populations across various simulated scenarios. We found that captive scenarios pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 introduction from humans into deer herds and subsequent transmission among deer, compared to wild herds. However, even in wild herds, the transmission risk is often substantial enough to sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of introduction from humans influences outbreak characteristics only to a certain extent. Transmission among deer was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks in deer populations, regardless of the initial level of introduction. We also explore the potential for fence line interactions between captive and wild deer to elevate outbreak metrics in wild herds that have the lowest risk of introduction and sustained transmission. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 could be introduced and maintained in deer herds across a range of circumstances based on testing a range of introduction and transmission risks in various captive and wild scenarios. Our approach and findings will aid One Health strategies that mitigate persistent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in white-tailed deer populations and potential spillback to humans.

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis.

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Replanteamiento del manejo de problemas por enfermedades de fauna mediante el análisis de decisiones Resumen El manejo actual de las enfermedades de la fauna es complejo debido a que los gestores necesitan responder a una amplia gama de actores, varias incertidumbres y compensaciones difíciles que caracterizan los retos interconectados del día de hoy. A pesar de que en general se reconocen estas complejidades, el manejo de las enfermedades tiende a plantearse como un problema científico en el que el principal obstáculo es la falta de conocimiento. El proceso complejo y multifactorial de la toma decisiones está colapsado dentro de un esfuerzo científico para reducir la incertidumbre. Como resultado de esto, las decisiones contemporáneas pueden estar simplificadas en exceso, depender de métodos heurísticos simples y no considerar el contexto legal, social y económico más amplio en el que se toman las decisiones. De manera paralela, las investigaciones científicas sobre las enfermedades de la fauna pueden estar lejos de este contexto de decisiones, lo que deriva en información que puede no ser directamente relevante para las preguntas pertinentes de manejo. Proponemos replantear los obstáculos para el manejo de enfermedades de fauna como problemas de decisión y abordarlos con herramientas analíticas de decisión para dividir los problemas complejos en elementos más manejables de manera cognitiva. En particular, las decisiones estructuradas tienen el potencial de mejorar la calidad, el rigor y la transparencia de las decisiones sobre las enfermedades de la fauna en una variedad de sistemas. Ejemplos como el manejo del coronavirus del síndrome de respiración agudo tipo 2, el síndrome de nariz blanca, la influenza aviar y la quitridiomicosis ilustran los impedimentos más comunes para la toma de decisiones, incluyendo los objetivos en competencia, riesgos, incertidumbre en las predicciones y recursos limitados.

Response of lion demography and dynamics to the loss of preferred larger prey.

Large carnivores are experiencing range contraction and population declines globally. Prey depletion due to illegal offtake is considered a major contributor, but the effects of prey depletion on large carnivore demography are rarely tested. We measured African lion density and tested the factors that affect survival using mark-recapture models fit to six years of data from known individuals in Kafue National Park (KNP), Zambia. KNP is affected by prey depletion, particularly for large herbivores that were preferred prey for KNP lions a half-century ago. This provides a unique opportunity to test whether variables that explain local prey density also affect lion survival. Average lion density within our study area was 3.43 individuals/100 km2 (95% CI, 2.79-4.23), which was much lower than lion density reported for another miombo ecosystem with similar vegetation structure and rainfall that was less affected by prey depletion. Despite this, comparison to other lion populations showed that age- and sex-specific survival rates for KNP lions were generally good, and factors known to correlate with local prey density had small effects on lion survival. In contrast, recruitment of cubs was poor and average pride size was small. In particular, the proportion of the population comprised of second-year cubs was low, indicating that few cubs are recruited into the subadult age class. Our findings suggest that low recruitment might be a better signal of low prey density than survival. Thus, describing a lion population's age structure in addition to average pride size may be a simple and effective method of initially evaluating whether a lion population is affected by prey depletion. These dynamics should be evaluated for other lion populations and other large carnivore species. Increased resource protection and reducing the underlying drivers of prey depletion are urgent conservation needs for lions and other large carnivores as their conservation is increasingly threatened by range contraction and population declines.

One Health collaboration is more effective than single-sector actions at mitigating SARS-CoV-2 in deer.

One Health aims to achieve optimal health outcomes for people, animals, plants, and shared environments. We describe a multisector effort to understand and mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk to humans via the spread among and between captive and wild white-tailed deer. We first framed a One Health problem with three governance sectors that manage captive deer, wild deer populations, and public health. The problem framing included identifying fundamental objectives, causal chains for transmission, and management actions. We then developed a dynamic model that linked deer herds and simulated SARS-CoV-2. Next, we evaluated management alternatives for their ability to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread in white-tailed deer. We found that single-sector alternatives reduced transmission, but that the best-performing alternative required collaborative actions among wildlife management, agricultural management, and public health agencies. Here, we show quantitative support that One Health actions outperform single-sector responses, but may depend on coordination to track changes in this evolving system.

Advances in wildlife abundance estimation using pedigree reconstruction.

The conservation and management of wildlife populations, particularly for threatened and endangered species are greatly aided with abundance, growth rate, and density measures. Traditional methods of estimating abundance and related metrics represent trade-offs in effort and precision of estimates. Pedigree reconstruction is an emerging, attractive alternate approach because its use of one-time, noninvasive sampling of individuals to infer the existence of unsampled individuals. However, advances in pedigree reconstruction could improve its utility, including forming a measure of precision for the method, establishing required spatial sampling effort for accurate estimates, ascertaining the spatial extent of abundance estimates derived from pedigree reconstruction, and assessing how population density affects the estimator's performance. Using established relationships for a stochastic, spatially explicit simulated moose (Alces americanus) population, pedigree reconstruction provided accurate estimates of the adult moose population size and trend. Novel bootstrapped confidence intervals performed as expected with intensive sampling but underperformed with moderate sampling efforts that could produce abundance estimates with low bias. Adult population estimates more closely reflected the total number of adults in the extant population, rather than number of adults inhabiting the area where sampling occurred. Increasing sampling effort, measured as the proportion of individuals sampled and as the proportion of a hypothetical study area, yielded similar asymptotic patterns over time. Simulations indicated a positive relationship between animal density and sampling effort required for unbiased estimates. These results indicate that pedigree reconstruction can produce accurate abundance estimates and may be particularly valuable for surveying smaller areas and low-density populations.

Surveillance of Vermont wildlife in 2021-2022 reveals no detected SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA.

Previous studies have documented natural infections of SARS-CoV-2 in various domestic and wild animals. More recently, studies have been published noting the susceptibility of members of the Cervidae family, and infections in both wild and captive cervid populations. In this study, we investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in mammalian wildlife within the state of Vermont. 739 nasal or throat samples were collected from wildlife throughout the state during the 2021 and 2022 harvest season. Data was collected from red and gray foxes (Vulpes vulples and Urocyon cineroargentus, respectively), fishers (Martes pennati), river otters (Lutra canadensis), coyotes (Canis lantrans), bobcats (Lynx rufus rufus), black bears (Ursus americanus), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Samples were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 via quantitative RT-qPCR using the CDC N1/N2 primer set and/or the WHO-E gene primer set. Surprisingly, we initially detected a number of N1 and/or N2 positive samples with high cycle threshold values, though after conducting environmental swabbing of the laboratory and verifying with a second independent primer set (WHO-E) and PCR without reverse transcriptase, we showed that these were false positives due to plasmid contamination from a construct expressing the N gene in the general laboratory environment. Our final results indicate that no sampled wildlife were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and highlight the importance of physically separate locations for the processing of samples for surveillance and experiments that require the use of plasmid DNA containing the target RNA sequence. These negative findings are surprising, given that most published North America studies have found SARS-CoV-2 within their deer populations. The absence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in populations sampled here may provide insights in to the various environmental and anthropogenic factors that reduce spillover and spread in North American's wildlife populations.

Surveillance of Vermont wildlife in 2021-2022 reveals no detected SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA.

Previous studies have documented natural infections of SARS-CoV-2 in various domestic and wild animals. More recently, studies have been published noting the susceptibility of members of the Cervidae family, and infections in both wild and captive cervid populations. In this study, we investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in mammalian wildlife within the state of Vermont. 739 nasal or throat samples were collected from wildlife throughout the state during the 2021 and 2022 harvest season. Data was collected from red and gray foxes ( Vulpes vulples and Urocyon cineroargentus , respectively), fishers ( Martes pennati ), river otters ( Lutra canadensis ), coyotes ( Canis lantrans ), bobcats ( Lynx rufus rufus ), black bears ( Ursus americanus ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). Samples were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 via quantitative RT-qPCR using the CDC N1/N2 primer set and/or the WHO-E gene primer set. Our results indicate that no sampled wildlife were positive for SARS-CoV-2. This finding is surprising, given that most published North America studies have found SARS-CoV-2 within their deer populations. The absence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in populations sampled here may provide insights in to the various environmental and anthropogenic factors that reduce spillover and spread in North American's wildlife populations.

Juvenile moose stress and nutrition dynamics related to winter ticks, landscape characteristics, climate-mediated factors and survival.

Moose populations in the northeastern United States have declined over the past 15 years, primarily due to the impacts of winter ticks. Research efforts have focused on the effects of winter tick infestation on moose survival and reproduction, but stress and nutritional responses to ticks and other stressors remain understudied. We examined the influence of several environmental factors on moose calf stress hormone metabolite concentrations and nutritional restriction in Vermont, USA. We collected 407 fecal and 461 snow urine samples from 84 radio-collared moose calves in the winters of 2017-2019 (January-April) to measure fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCM) concentrations and urea nitrogen:creatinine (UN:C) ratios. We used generalized mixed-effects models to evaluate the influence of individual condition, winter ticks, habitat, climate and human development on stress and nutrition in calf moose. We then used these physiological data to build generalized linear models to predict calf winter survival. Calf fGCM concentrations increased with nutritional restriction and snow depth during adult winter tick engorgement. Calf UN:C ratios increased in calves with lighter weights and higher tick loads in early winter. Calf UN:C ratios also increased in individuals with home ranges composed of little deciduous forests during adult winter tick engorgement. Our predictive models estimated that winter survival was negatively related to UN:C ratios and positively related to fGCM concentrations, particularly in early winter. By late March, as winter ticks are having their greatest toll and endogenous resources become depleted, we estimated a curvilinear relationship between fGCM concentrations and survival. Our results provide novel evidence linking moose calf stress and nutrition, a problematic parasite and challenging environment and winter survival. Our findings provide a baseline to support the development of non-invasive physiological monitoring for assessing environmental impacts on moose populations.

Do protection gradients explain patterns in herbivore densities? An example with ungulates in Zambia's Luangwa Valley.

Ungulate populations face declines across the globe, and populations are commonly conserved by using protected areas. However, assessing the effectiveness of protected areas in conserving ungulate populations has remained difficult. Using herd size data from four years of line transect surveys and distance sampling models, we modeled population densities of four important herbivore species across a gradient of protection on the edge of Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) while accounting for the role of various ecological and anthropogenic variables. Our goal was to test whether protection was responsible for density dynamics in this protection gradient, and whether a hunting moratorium impacted herbivore densities during the studies. For all four species, we estimated lower densities in partially protected buffer areas adjacent to SLNP (ranging from 4.5-fold to 13.2-fold lower) compared to protected parklands. Density trends through the study period were species-specific, with some species increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable in all or some regions of the protection gradient. Surprisingly, when controlling for other covariates, we found that these observed differences were not always detectably related to the level of protection or year. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for variables beyond strata of interest in evaluating the effectiveness of a protected area. This study highlights the importance of comprehensively modeling ungulate population density across protection gradients, identifies lands within an important protection gradient for targeted conservation and monitoring, documents prey depletion and expands our understanding on the drivers in a critical buffer area in Zambia.

Quantifying lion (Panthera leo) demographic response following a three-year moratorium on trophy hunting.

Factors that limit African lion populations are manifold and well-recognized, but their relative demographic effects remain poorly understood, particularly trophy hunting near protected areas. We identified and monitored 386 individual lions within and around South Luangwa National Park, Zambia, for five years (2008-2012) with trophy hunting and for three additional years (2013-2015) during a hunting moratorium. We used these data with mark-resight models to estimate the effects of hunting on lion survival, recruitment, and abundance. The best survival models, accounting for imperfect detection, revealed strong positive effects of the moratorium, with survival increasing by 17.1 and 14.0 percentage points in subadult and adult males, respectively. Smaller effects on adult female survival and positive effects on cub survival were also detected. The sex-ratio of cubs shifted from unbiased during trophy-hunting to female-biased during the moratorium. Closed mark-recapture models revealed a large increase in lion abundance during the hunting moratorium, from 116 lions in 2012 immediately preceding the moratorium to 209 lions in the last year of the moratorium. More cubs were produced each year of the moratorium than in any year with trophy hunting. Lion demographics shifted from a male-depleted population consisting mostly of adult (≥4 years) females to a younger population with more (>29%) adult males. These data show that the three-year moratorium was effective at growing the Luangwa lion population and increasing the number of adult males. The results suggest that moratoria may be an effective tool for improving the sustainability of lion trophy hunting, particularly where systematic monitoring, conservative quotas, and age-based harvesting are difficult to enforce.

Effects of a protection gradient on carnivore density and survival: an example with leopards in the Luangwa valley, Zambia.

Human activities on the periphery of protected areas can limit carnivore populations, but measurements of the strength of such effects are limited, largely due to difficulties of obtaining precise data on population density and survival. We measured how density and survival rates of a previously unstudied leopard population varied across a gradient of protection and evaluated which anthropogenic activities accounted for observed patterns. Insights into this generalist's response to human encroachment are likely to identify limiting factors for other sympatric carnivore species. Motion-sensitive cameras were deployed systematically in adjacent, similarly sized, and ecologically similar study areas inside and outside Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) from 2012 to 2014. The sites differed primarily in the degree of human impacts: SLNP is strictly protected, but the adjacent area was subject to human encroachment and bushmeat poaching throughout the study, and trophy hunting of leopards prior to 2012. We used photographic capture histories with robust design capture-recapture models to estimate population size and sex-specific survival rates for the two areas. Leopard density within SLNP was 67% greater than in the adjacent area, but annual survival rates and sex ratios did not detectably differ between the sites. Prior research indicated that wire-snare occurrence was 5.2 times greater in the areas adjacent to the park. These results suggest that the low density of leopards on the periphery of SLNP is better explained by prey depletion, rather than by direct anthropogenic mortality. Long-term spatial data from concurrent lion studies suggested that interspecific competition did not produce the observed patterns. Large carnivore populations are often limited by human activities, but science-based management policies depend on methods to rigorously and quantitatively assess threats to populations of concern. Using noninvasive robust design capture-recapture methods, we systematically assessed leopard density and survival across a protection gradient and identified bushmeat poaching as the likely limiting factor. This approach is of broad value to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on carnivore populations that are distributed across gradients of protection.

Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks.

Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2-21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size.