Trial of an Intervention to Improve Acute Heart Failure Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute heart failure are frequently or systematically hospitalized, often because the risk of adverse events is uncertain and the options for rapid follow-up are inadequate. Whether the use of a strategy to support clinicians in making decisions about discharging or admitting patients, coupled with rapid follow-up in an outpatient clinic, would affect outcomes remains uncertain. METHODS: In a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial conducted in Ontario, Canada, we randomly assigned 10 hospitals to staggered start dates for one-way crossover from the control phase (usual care) to the intervention phase, which involved the use of a point-of-care algorithm to stratify patients with acute heart failure according to the risk of death. During the intervention phase, low-risk patients were discharged early (in ≤3 days) and received standardized outpatient care, and high-risk patients were admitted to the hospital. The coprimary outcomes were a composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes within 30 days after presentation and the composite outcome within 20 months. RESULTS: A total of 5452 patients were enrolled in the trial (2972 during the control phase and 2480 during the intervention phase). Within 30 days, death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes occurred in 301 patients (12.1%) who were enrolled during the intervention phase and in 430 patients (14.5%) who were enrolled during the control phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.99; P = 0.04). Within 20 months, the cumulative incidence of primary-outcome events was 54.4% (95% CI, 48.6 to 59.9) among patients who were enrolled during the intervention phase and 56.2% (95% CI, 54.2 to 58.1) among patients who were enrolled during the control phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92 to 0.99). Fewer than six deaths or hospitalizations for any cause occurred in low- or intermediate-risk patients before the first outpatient visit within 30 days after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with acute heart failure who were seeking emergency care, the use of a hospital-based strategy to support clinical decision making and rapid follow-up led to a lower risk of the composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes within 30 days than usual care. (Funded by the Ontario SPOR Support Unit and others; COACH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02674438.).

Ambulatory Cardiology or General Internal Medicine Assessment Prior to Scheduled Major Vascular Surgery is Associated with Improved Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association between ambulatory cardiology or general internal medicine (GIM) assessment prior to surgery and outcomes following scheduled major vascular surgery. BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk assessment and management prior to high-risk surgery remains an evolving area of care. METHODS: This is population-based retrospective cohort study of all adults who underwent scheduled major vascular surgery in Ontario, Canada, April 1, 2004-March 31, 2019. Patients who had an ambulatory cardiology and/or GIM assessment within 6 months prior to surgery were compared to those who did not. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included: composite of 30-day mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke; 30-day cardiovascular death; 1-year mortality; composite of 1-year mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke; and 1-year cardiovascular death. Cox proportional hazard regression using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to mitigate confounding by indication. RESULTS: Among 50,228 patients, 20,484 (40.8%) underwent an ambulatory assessment prior to surgery: 11,074 (54.1%) with cardiology, 8,071 (39.4%) with GIM and 1,339 (6.5%) with both. Compared to patients who did not, those who underwent an assessment had a higher Revised Cardiac Risk Index (N with Index over 2= 4,989[24.4%] vs. 4,587[15.4%], P<0.001) and more frequent pre-operative cardiac testing (N=7,772[37.9%] vs. 6,113[20.6%], P<0.001) but, lower 30-day mortality (N=551[2.7%] vs. 970[3.3%], P<0.001). After application of IPTW, cardiology or GIM assessment prior to surgery remained associated with a lower 30-day mortality (weighted Hazard Ratio [95%CI] = 0.73 [0.65-0.82]) and a lower rate of all secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Major vascular surgery patients assessed by a cardiology or GIM physician prior to surgery have better outcomes than those who are not. Further research is needed to better understand potential mechanisms of benefit.

DIETARY SODIUM INTAKE AND OUTCOMES: A SECONDARY ANALYSIS FROM SODIUM-HF: Sodium Intake and Outcomes in Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: This post-hoc analysis of SODIUM-HF assessed the association between baseline dietary sodium intake and change at 6 months with a composite of cardiovascular (CV) hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and all-cause death at 12 and 24 months. BACKGROUND: Dietary sodium restriction is common advice for patients with heart failure (HF). Randomized clinical trials have not shown a beneficial effect of dietary sodium restriction on clinical outcomes. METHODS: Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess the association of dietary sodium intake measured at randomization with primary and secondary endpoints. RESULTS: 792 participants were included. Baseline sodium intake was ≤1500 mg/day in 19.9% (n=158), 1501-3000 mg/day in 56.5% (n=448), and >3000 mg/day in 23.4% (n=186) of participants. The factors associated with higher baseline sodium intake were higher calorie consumption, higher body mass index and recruitment from Canada. Multivariable analyses showed no association between baseline sodium intake nor magnitude of 6 months change and 12 or 24-month outcomes. In a responder analysis, participants achieving a sodium intake <1500 mg at 6 months showed an association with a decreased risk for the composite outcome (adjusted HR 0.52 [95% CI 0.25, 1.07] P=0.08) and CV hospitalization (adjusted HR 0.51 [95% CI 0.24, 1.09] P=0.08) at 12 months. CONCLUSION: There was no association between dietary sodium intake and clinical outcomes over 24 months in patients with HF. Responder analyses suggest the need for further investigation of the effects of sodium reduction in those who achieve the targeted dietary sodium reduction level.

Prevalence of post-liver transplant complications and NASH-related cirrhosis in postmenopausal women.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Compared to premenopausal women, postmenopausal women are at greater risk of developing NAFLD and NASH, two common indications for liver transplantation (LT). We aim to determine the prevalence of NASH-related cirrhosis in postmenopausal women from a cohort of LT patients and investigate their post-LT complications. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Chart review of 1200 LT patients from 2002-2020 was performed. Postmenopausal women were defined as women over 51 and compared to a control group of men over 51. Prevalence of LT indications was determined. Subgroup analysis assessed cardiovascular disease risk. BMI and ASCVD risk scores were calculated at the time of LT and after 1 year. RESULTS: 510 patients met the inclusion criteria: 189 (37.1%) women and 321 (62.9%) men. The most common indication was NASH for women (26.5%, p<0.001) and alcohol-related cirrhosis for men (23.1%). 53 men and 46 women underwent subgroup analysis. There was no significant difference in BMI or ASCVD 10-year risk post-LT between sexes. MI occurred more in men (n=9.17%) than women (n=1, 2%, p=0.015), with no significant differences in CAD, CHF, or stroke. LT complications occurred less in men (n=5.9%) than women (n=20, 43%, p=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Postmenopausal women were significantly more likely to have NASH as an indication for LT than men. Postmenopausal women had greater weight gain and more noncardiac complications than men. Women did not have increased cardiovascular outcomes, ASCVD risk, or mortality. Diet education and weight control in postmenopausal women with existing risk factors for NASH should be encouraged to modulate health outcomes.

Dementia and mild cognitive impairment screening in an emergency homeless shelter.

INTRODUCTION: Older adults represent the fastest growing segment of the homeless community. Little is known about the prevalence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in this population. METHODS: Dementia and MCI screening using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) was incorporated into the standard senior evaluation for adult clients aged ≥ 55 in a large emergency homeless shelter. RESULTS: In a 6-week period, 104 of 112 (92.9%) assessments were positive for dementia or MCI using a standard cutoff of 26, and 81 (72.3%) were positive using a conservative cutoff of 23. There was no significant difference in MoCA scores based on sex or education level, and no significant correlation between age and MoCA score. DISCUSSION: Older adults experiencing homelessness may have a high likelihood of dementia or MCI. Routine MoCA screening in older adults experiencing homelessness is feasible and can help to identify services needed to successfully exit homelessness.

Reduction of dietary sodium to less than 100 mmol in heart failure (SODIUM-HF): an international, open-label, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Dietary restriction of sodium has been suggested to prevent fluid overload and adverse outcomes for patients with heart failure. We designed the Study of Dietary Intervention under 100 mmol in Heart Failure (SODIUM-HF) to test whether or not a reduction in dietary sodium reduces the incidence of future clinical events. METHODS: SODIUM-HF is an international, open-label, randomised, controlled trial that enrolled patients at 26 sites in six countries (Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and New Zealand). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, with chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class 2-3), and receiving optimally tolerated guideline-directed medical treatment. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), using a standard number generator and varying block sizes of two, four, or six, stratified by site, to either usual care according to local guidelines or a low sodium diet of less than 100 mmol (ie, <1500 mg/day). The primary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular-related admission to hospital, cardiovascular-related emergency department visit, or all-cause death within 12 months in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (ie, all randomly assigned patients). Safety was assessed in the ITT population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012179, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between March 24, 2014, and Dec 9, 2020, 806 patients were randomly assigned to a low sodium diet (n=397) or usual care (n=409). Median age was 67 years (IQR 58-74) and 268 (33%) were women and 538 (66%) were men. Between baseline and 12 months, the median sodium intake decreased from 2286 mg/day (IQR 1653-3005) to 1658 mg/day (1301-2189) in the low sodium group and from 2119 mg/day (1673-2804) to 2073 mg/day (1541-2900) in the usual care group. By 12 months, events comprising the primary outcome had occurred in 60 (15%) of 397 patients in the low sodium diet group and 70 (17%) of 409 in the usual care group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·89 [95% CI 0·63-1·26]; p=0·53). All-cause death occurred in 22 (6%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 17 (4%) in the usual care group (HR 1·38 [0·73-2·60]; p=0·32), cardiovascular-related hospitalisation occurred in 40 (10%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 51 (12%) patients in the usual care group (HR 0·82 [0·54-1·24]; p=0·36), and cardiovascular-related emergency department visits occurred in 17 (4%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 15 (4%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·21 [0·60-2·41]; p=0·60). No safety events related to the study treatment were reported in either group. INTERPRETATION: In ambulatory patients with heart failure, a dietary intervention to reduce sodium intake did not reduce clinical events. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the University Hospital Foundation, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Graft Dysfunction Early After Heart Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a prevailing option for the management of severe early graft dysfunction. This systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aims to evaluate (1) mortality, (2) rates of major complications, (3) prognostic factors, and (4) the effect of different VA-ECMO strategies on outcomes in adult heart transplant (HT) recipients supported with VA-ECMO. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic search and included studies of adults (≥18 years) who received VA-ECMO during their index hospitalization after HT and reported on mortality at any timepoint. We pooled data using random effects models. To identify prognostic factors, we analysed IPD using mixed effects logistic regression. We assessed the certainty in the evidence using the GRADE framework. We included 49 observational studies of 1477 patients who received VA-ECMO after HT, of which 15 studies provided IPD for 448 patients. There were no differences in mortality estimates between IPD and non-IPD studies. The short-term (30-day/in-hospital) mortality estimate was 33% (moderate certainty, 95% confidence interval [CI] 28%-39%) and 1-year mortality estimate 50% (moderate certainty, 95% CI 43%-57%). Recipient age (odds ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) and prior sternotomy (OR 1.57, 95% CI 0.99-2.49) are associated with increased short-term mortality. There is low certainty evidence that early intraoperative cannulation and peripheral cannulation reduce the risk of short-term death. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients who receive VA-ECMO for early graft dysfunction do not survive 30 days or to hospital discharge, and one-half do not survive to 1 year after HT. Improving outcomes will require ongoing research focused on optimizing VA-ECMO strategies and care in the first year after HT.

Patients with fulminant myocarditis supported with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of short-term mortality and impact of risk factors.

Fulminant myocarditis (FM) may lead to cardiogenic shock requiring veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). Results of effectiveness studies of VA-ECMO have been contradictory. We evaluated the aggregate short-term mortality after VA-ECMO and predictive factors in patients with FM. We systematically searched in electronic databases (February 2022) to identify studies evaluating short-term mortality (defined as mortality at 30 days or in-hospital) after VA-ECMO support for FM. We included studies with 5 or more patients published after 2009. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the QUIPS and GRADE tools. Mortality was pooled using random effect models. We performed meta-regression to explore heterogeneity based on a priori defined factors. We included 54 observational studies encompassing 2388 FM patients supported with VA-ECMO. Median age was 41 years (25th to 75th percentile 37-47), and 50% were female. The pooled short-term mortality was 35% (95% CI 29-40%, I2 = 69%; moderate certainty). By meta-regression, studies with younger populations showed lower mortality. Female sex, receiving a biopsy, cardiac arrest, left ventricular unloading, and earlier recruitment time frame, did not explain heterogeneity. These results remained consistent regardless of continent and the risk of bias category. In individual studies, low pH value, high lactate, absence of functional cardiac recovery on ECMO, increased burden of malignant arrhythmia, high peak coronary markers, and IVIG use were identified as independent predictors of mortality. When conventional therapies have failed, especially in younger patients, cardiopulmonary support with VA-ECMO should be considered in the treatment of severe FM.

Monitoring Cardiac Biomarkers with Aptamer-Based Molecular Pendulum Sensors.

Reagent-free electronic biosensors capable of analyzing disease markers directly in unprocessed body fluids will enable the development of simple & affordable devices for personalized healthcare monitoring. Here we report a powerful and versatile nucleic acid-based reagent-free electronic sensing system. The signal transduction is based on the kinetics of an electrode-tethered molecular pendulum-a rigid double stranded DNA with one of the strands displaying an analyte-binding aptamer and the other featuring a redox probe-that exhibits field-induced transport modulated by receptor occupancy. Using chronoamperometry, which enables the sensor to circumvent the conventional Debye length limitation, the binding of an analyte can be monitored as these species increase the hydrodynamic drag. The sensing platform demonstrates a low femtomolar quantification limit and minimal cross-reactivity in analyzing cardiac biomarkers in whole blood collected from patients with chronic heart failure.

Clonal hematopoiesis confers an increased mortality risk in orthotopic heart transplant recipients.

Novel risk stratification and non-invasive surveillance methods are needed in orthotopic heart transplant (OHT) to reduce morbidity and mortality post-transplant. Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) refers to the acquisition of specific gene mutations in hematopoietic stem cells linked to enhanced inflammation and worse cardiovascular outcomes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between CH and OHT. Blood samples were collected from 127 OHT recipients. Error-corrected sequencing was used to detect CH-associated mutations. We evaluated the association between CH and acute cellular rejection, CMV infection, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), malignancies, and survival. CH mutations were detected in 26 (20.5%) patients, mostly in DNMT3A, ASXL1, and TET2. Patients with CH showed a higher frequency of CAV grade 2 or 3 (0% vs. 18%, p < .001). Moreover, a higher mortality rate was observed in patients with CH (11 [42%] vs. 15 [15%], p = .008) with an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.9 (95% CI, 1.4-6.3; p = .003). CH was not associated with acute cellular rejection, CMV infection or malignancies. The prevalence of CH in OHT recipients is higher than previously reported for the general population of the same age group, with an associated higher prevalence of CAV and mortality.

Prognostic value of natriuretic peptides in heart failure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Risk models, informing optimal long-term medical management, seldom use natriuretic peptides (NP) in ascertaining the absolute risk of outcomes for HF patients. Individual studies evaluating the prognostic value of NPs in HF patients have reported varying effects, arriving at best estimates requires a systematic review. We systematically summarized the best evidence regarding the prognostic value of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and NT-proBNP in predicting mortality and hospitalizations in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients. We searched bibliographic databases from 2005 to 2018 and included studies evaluating the association of BNP or NT-proBNP with mortality or hospitalization using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. We pooled hazard ratios using random-effect models, explored heterogeneity using pre-specified subgroup analyses, and evaluated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations and Development Evaluation framework. We identified 67 eligible studies reporting on 76,178 ambulatory HF patients with a median BNP of 407 pg/mL (261-574 pg/mL). Moderate to high-quality evidence showed that a 100-pg/mL increase in BNP was associated with a 14% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22); a 1-log-unit increase was associated with a 51% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.41-1.61) and 48% increased hazard of mortality or hospitalization (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.29-1.69). With moderate to high certainty, we observed a 14% independent relative increase in mortality, translating to a clinically meaningful increase in absolute risk even for low-risk patients. The observed associations may help in developing more accurate risk models that incorporate NPs and accurately prognosticate HF patients.

Prognostic value of blood pressure in ambulatory heart failure: a meta-analysis and systematic review. Ambulatory blood pressure predicts heart failure prognosis.

Previous primary studies have explored the association between blood pressure (BP) and mortality in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients reporting varying and contrasting associations. The aim is to determine the pooled BP prognostic value and explore potential reasons for between-study inconsistency. We searched Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE and CINAHL from January 2005 to October 2018 for studies with ≥ 50 events (mortality and/or hospitalization) and included BP in a multivariable model in ambulatory HF patients. We pooled hazard ratios (random effects model) for systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP) effect on mortality and/or hospitalization risk. We used a priori defined sub-group analyses to explore heterogeneity and GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. Seventy-one eligible articles (239,467 screened) at low to moderate risk of bias included 235,752 participants. Higher SBP was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.93, 95%CI 0.91-0.95, I2 = 87.13%, moderate certainty), all-cause hospitalization events (HR 0.91, 95%CI 0.88-0.93, I2 = 44.4%, high certainty) and their composite endpoint (HR 0.93 per 10 mmHg, 95%CI 0.91-0.94, I2 = 86.3%, high certainty). DBP did not demonstrate a statistically significant effect for all outcomes. The association strength was significantly weaker in studies following patients with either LVEF > 40%, higher average SBP (> 130 mmHg), increasing age and diabetes. All other a priori subgroup hypotheses did not explain between study differences. Higher ambulatory SBP is associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization. Patients with lower BP and reduced LVEF are in a high-risk group of developing adverse events with moderate certainty of evidence.

Accuracy of Case-Based Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Maricopa County, Arizona.

We conducted a community seroprevalence survey in Arizona, from September 12 to October 1, 2020, to determine the presence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We used the seroprevalence estimate to predict SARS-CoV-2 infections in the jurisdiction by applying the adjusted seroprevalence to the county's population. The estimated community seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 4.3 times greater (95% confidence interval = 2.2, 7.5) than the number of reported cases. Field surveys with representative sampling provide data that may help fill in gaps in traditional public health reporting. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):38-42. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306568).

Impact of serial measurements of tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion on mortality and morbidity after heart transplantation.

The impact of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction on long-term post-HTx outcomes remains uncertain. We assessed the impact of serial measurements of Tricuspid Annular Plane Systolic Excursion (TAPSE) on post-HTx mortality and morbidity. This two-center retrospective cohort study included consecutive adult HTx recipients (2000-2017). We used multivariable extended hazard regression models to evaluate the association between TAPSE and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), entered as time-dependent variables, and all-cause mortality, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), acute cellular rejection (ACR), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). TAPSE was modelled using cubic splines. We included 485 HTx recipients (9461 TAPSE measurements), median (25th- 75th percentile) 19 (10-27) mm; median age was 52 (41-59) years, and 71.3% were male. During a follow-up of 6.7 (3.0-10.8) years, 92 patients died, 225 had ACR >2R, 234 CAV, and 91 CKD. By multivariable analysis, for each 1-mm decrease in patients with a TAPSE value <15mm, mortality increased by 22% (P<.001). For the average HTx recipient with a TAPSE of 15mm, 10mm, and 6mm, 1-year mortality was 3%, 7%, and 17%, and 5-year mortality was 8%, 20%, and 43%, respectively. Reduced TAPSE was significantly associated with increased CAV but notACR and CKD. A decrease in TAPSE below 15mm represents clinically significant graft dysfunction, warranting close monitoring.

Predicted heart mass for size matching in obese heart transplant donors and recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Predicted heart mass (PHM) was neither derived nor evaluated in an obese population. Our objective was to evaluate size mismatch using actual body weight or ideal body weight (IBW)-adjusted PHM on mortality and risk assessment. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult recipients with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 or recipients of donors with BMI≥30 kg/m2 from the ISHLT registry. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate 30-day and 1-year mortality. The two models were compared using net reclassification index. RESULTS: 10,817 HT recipients, age 55 (IQR 46-62) years, 23% female, BMI 31 kg/m2 (IQR 28-33) were included. Donors were age 34 (IQR 24-44) years, 31% female, and BMI 31 kg/m2 (IQR 26-34). There was a significant nonlinear association between mortality and actual PHM but not IBW-adjusted PHM. Undersizing using actual PHM was associated with higher 30-day and 1-year mortality (p < .01), not seen with IBW-adjusted PHM. Actual PHM better risk classified .6% (95% CI .3-.8) patients compared to IBW-adjusted PHM. CONCLUSION: Actual PHM can be used for size matching when assessing mortality risk in obese recipients or recipients of obese donors. There is no advantage to re-calculating PHM using IBW to define candidate risk at the time of organ allocation.

The risk of death or unplanned readmission after discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalization in Alberta and Ontario.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of readmissions after COVID-19 hospitalizations is uncertain, as is whether current readmission prediction equations are useful for discharge risk stratification of COVID-19 survivors or for comparing among hospitals. We sought to determine the frequency and predictors of death or unplanned readmission after a COVID-19 hospital discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults (≥ 18 yr) who were discharged alive from hospital after a nonpsychiatric, nonobstetric, acute care admission for COVID-19 between Jan. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021, in Alberta and Ontario. RESULTS: Of 843 737 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction during the study period, 46 412 (5.5%) were adults admitted to hospital within 14 days of their positive test. Of these, 8496 died in hospital and 34 846 were discharged alive (30 336 discharged after an index admission of ≤ 30 d and 4510 discharged after an admission > 30 d). One in 9 discharged patients died or were readmitted within 30 days after discharge (3173 [10.5%] of those with stay ≤ 30 d and 579 [12.8%] of those with stay > 30 d). The LACE score (length of stay, acuity, Charlson Comorbidity Index and number of emergency visits in previous 6 months) for predicting urgent readmission or death within 30 days had a c-statistic of 0.60 in Alberta and 0.61 in Ontario; inclusion of sex, discharge locale, deprivation index and teaching hospital status in the model improved the c-statistic to 0.73. INTERPRETATION: Death or readmission after discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalization is common and had a similar frequency in Alberta and Ontario. Risk stratification and interinstitutional comparisons of outcomes after hospital admission for COVID-19 should include sex, discharge locale and socioeconomic measures, in addition to the LACE variables.

Correlated Product Distributions in the Photodissociation of à State NO-CH4 and NO-N2 van der Waals Complexes.

This paper reports correlated product distributions for dissociation of the van der Waals complexes NO-CH4 and NO-N2 on their à state surfaces, providing detailed data sets against which calculations can be benchmarked. NO-CH4 dissociation strongly favors small changes in the CH4 angular momentum, with ΔJ = 0 and 1 providing the bulk of the products. Conversely, the associated NO products show little constraint in terms of the rotational angular momentum transfer, with the full range of energetically accessible angular momentum states populated, although the distributions show minima. The lack of angular momentum transfer to methane accompanied by broad, structured, angular momentum transfer to NO gives the NO-CH4 dissociation some qualitative similarities to NO-Rg complex dissociation. In contrast, for NO-N2, the cluster of highest probability products corresponds to high N2 angular momentum and low NO angular momentum, with a sharp drop in the probability for populating the highest energetically accessible J states. For both the NO and N2 products, there appears to be a constraint limiting angular momentum transfer at the highest energetically accessible rotational states. Both complexes show product distributions that include a component attributed to excitation from warm complexes, which provides insight into their internal energies. Interestingly, for NO-N2, the 44,475 cm-1 photolysis translational energy release distribution for N = 8 extends to energies beyond those accessible from the highest bound X̃ states. This indicates either that there are long-lived (>100 µs) states above the X̃ state binding energy or that there is another mechanism that also contributes to this distribution.

Relationship of frailty with excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-level study in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of the literature on the relationship between frailty and excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The entire community-dwelling adult population of Ontario, Canada, as of January 1st, 2018, was identified using the Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team (CANHEART) cohort. Residents of long-term care facilities were excluded. Frailty was categorized through the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG® System) frailty indicator. Follow-up was until December 31st, 2020, with March 11th, 2020, indicating the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using multivariable Cox models with patient age as the timescale, we determined the relationship between frailty status and pandemic period on all-cause mortality. We evaluated the modifier effect of frailty using both stratified models as well as incorporating an interaction between frailty and the pandemic period. RESULTS: We identified 11,481,391 persons in our cohort, of whom 3.2% were frail based on the ACG indicator. Crude mortality increased from 0.75 to 0.87% per 100 person years from the pre- to post-pandemic period, translating to ~ 13,800 excess deaths among the community-dwelling adult population of Ontario (HR 1.11 95% CI 1.09-1.11). Frailty was associated with a statistically significant increase in all-cause mortality (HR 3.02, 95% CI 2.99-3.06). However, all-cause mortality increased similarly during the pandemic in frail (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.16) and non-frail (aHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.13-1.17) persons. CONCLUSION: Although frailty was associated with greater mortality, frailty did not modify the excess mortality associated with the pandemic.

Challenges of Telemonitoring Programs for Complex Chronic Conditions: Randomized Controlled Trial With an Embedded Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing prevalence of people with complex conditions and evidence of the positive impact of telemonitoring for single conditions, little research exists on telemonitoring for this population. OBJECTIVE: This randomized controlled trial and embedded qualitative study aims to evaluate the impact on and experiences of patients and health care providers (HCPs) using a telemonitoring system with decision support to manage patients with complex conditions, including those with multiple chronic conditions, compared with the standard of care. METHODS: A pragmatic, unblinded, 6-month randomized controlled trial sought to recruit 146 patients with ≥1 diagnosis of heart failure (HF), uncontrolled hypertension (HT), and insulin-requiring diabetes mellitus (DM) from outpatient specialty settings in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Participants were randomized into the control and telemonitoring groups, with the latter being instructed to take readings relevant to their conditions. The telemonitoring system contained an algorithm that generated decision support in the form of actionable self-care directives to patients and alerts to HCPs. The primary outcome was health status (36-Item Short Form Health Survey questionnaire). Secondary outcomes included anxiety and depression, self-efficacy in chronic disease management, and self-reported health service use. HF-related quality of life and self-care measures were also collected from patients followed for HF. Within- and between-group change scores were analyzed for statistical significance (P<.05). A convenience sample of HCPs and patients in the intervention group was interviewed about their experiences. RESULTS: A total of 96 patients were recruited and randomized. Recruitment was terminated early because of implementation challenges and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. No significant within- and between-group differences were found for the main primary and secondary outcomes. However, a within-group analysis of patients with HF found improvements in self-care maintenance (P=.04) and physical quality of life (P=.046). Opinions expressed by the 5 HCPs and 13 patients who were interviewed differed based on the monitored conditions. Although patients with HF reported benefitting from actionable self-care guidance and meaningful interactions with their HCPs, patient and HCP users of the DM and HT modules did not think telemonitoring improved the clinical management of those conditions to the same degree. These differing experiences were largely attributed to the siloed nature of specialty care and the design of the decision support, whereby fluctuations in the status of HT and DM typically required less urgent interventions compared with patients with HF. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that future research conceive telemonitoring as a program and that self-management and clinical decision support are necessary but not sufficient components of such programs for patients with complex conditions and lower acuity. We conclude that telemonitoring for patients with complex conditions or within multidisciplinary care settings may be best operationalized through nurse-led models of care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03127852; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03127852. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.2196/resprot.8367.

Early invasive coronary angiography and acute ischaemic heart failure outcomes.

AIMS: While myocardial ischaemia plays a major role in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF), the indications for coronary angiography during acute HF are not established. We determined the association of early coronary angiography during acute HF hospitalization with 2-year mortality, cardiovascular death, HF readmissions, and coronary revascularization. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a two-stage sampling process, we identified acute HF patients who presented to 70 emergency departments in Ontario (April 2010 to March 2013) and determined whether they underwent early coronary angiography within 14 days after presentation using administrative databases. After clinical record review, we defined a cohort with acute ischaemic HF as patients with at least one factor suggesting underlying ischaemic heart disease, including previous myocardial infarction, troponin elevation, or angina on presentation. We oversampled patients undergoing angiography. We used inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) to adjust for baseline differences. Of 7239 patients with acute HF, 2994 met inclusion criteria [median age 75 (interquartile range 65-83) years; 40.9% women]. Early angiography was performed in 1567 patients (52.3%) and was associated with lower all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.90, P = 0.002], cardiovascular death (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.93, P = 0.012), and HF readmissions (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.71-0.99, P = 0.042) after IPTW. Those undergoing early angiography experienced higher rates of percutaneous coronary intervention (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.73-3.86, P < 0.001) and coronary artery bypass grafting (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.75-4.93, P < 0.001) within 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Early coronary angiography was associated with lower all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, HF readmissions, and higher rates of coronary revascularization in acute HF patients with possible ischaemia.