Incidence of primary hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs during 2012-2020 in Athens, Greece.

One of the World Health Organization's targets for the 2030 viral hepatitis elimination strategy is to reduce new hepatitis C (HCV) infections. In Athens, Greece, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high HCV prevalence, with increasing trends since the 2000s. This analysis aims to assess primary HCV incidence among PWID during 2012-2020. Two community-based interventions were implemented in 2012-2013 and 2018-2020 with repeated sero-behavioural surveys in each period. Participants enrolled in multiple surveys were identified through linkage. To assess trends in HCV transmission, three indicators were estimated: (i) anti-HCV prevalence among 'new' injectors (those injecting ≤2 years), (ii) indirect HCV incidence among 'new' injectors, assuming infection occurred at the midpoint between initiating injection and the first positive test, and (iii) HCV incidence from repeat participants. There were 431 and 125 'new' injectors, respectively, in 2012-2013 and 2018-2020. Αnti-HCV prevalence [95% CI] declined from 53.6% [48.8%, 58.3%] in 2012-2013 to 40.0% [31.3, 49.1%] in 2018-2020 (25.4% reduction, p = .007). The indirect estimate [95% CI] of HCV incidence among 'new' injectors decreased from 56.1 [49.3, 63.8] to 39.0/100 person-years (PYs) [29.6, 51.5] (30.5% reduction, p = .020). HCV incidence [95% CI] based on seroconversions in repeat participants (16/63 in 2012-2013 and 9/55 in 2018-2020) declined from 64.6 [39.6105.4] to 13.8/100 PYs [7.2, 26.5], respectively (78.6% reduction, p < .001). Primary HCV incidence remains high among PWID in Athens. Consistent implementation of combined interventions, including high-coverage harm reduction programs and initiatives tailored to increase access to HCV treatment, is essential to sustain the declining trends documented during 2012-2020.

Estimating the number of people who inject drugs using repeated respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in a community-based program: implications for the burden of hepatitis C and HIV infections and harm reduction coverage.

Estimates of the population size of people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential for efficient program planning and for monitoring key targets. Existing estimates in Greece are based on the capture-recapture method applied to drug treatment sources. We aimed to obtain estimates based on data collected from a community-based program addressing PWID in Athens, Greece. The program was implemented in 2012-2013 to increase diagnosis and treatment for HIV among PWID during an HIV outbreak. Five Responden-Driven Sampling (RDS) rounds were used to recruit participants. A unique code was used to identify participants among rounds. Capture-recapture was applied to estimate the population size in 2013 (PWID with injection in the past 12 months; active PWID with injection in the past 30 days). Log-linear models were applied. In 2013, the estimated number of active PWID in Athens was 4,117 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3,728-4,507] (vs. 1,956 [95% CI: 1,525-2,565] the existing population size estimate). Based on this estimate, the coverage of needle and syringe programs in 2013 was 103 syringes/PWID/year (vs. 216 based on the existing estimate). The population prevalence of injecting drug use in Athens (past 12 months) was 0.222% (95% CI: 0.200-0.245). The inclusion of data from community-based programs in the estimation of the PWID population size resulted in 2.1-fold higher estimates, compared to the official estimates obtained from drug treatment data, and indicates the need for re-evaluation of necessary resources for harm reduction and elimination of HIV and hepatitis C in PWID.

Assessment of mRNA Vaccine Immunogenicity in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients.

Background and Objectives: Solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients have a higher risk of suffering from severe Coronavirus (COVID-19) compared to the general population. Studies have shown impaired immunogenicity of mRNA vaccines in this high-risk population; thus, SOT recipients have been prioritized globally for primary and booster doses. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 144 SOT recipients who had previously received two doses of BNT162b2 or mRNA1273 vaccine, and who were subsequently vaccinated with a booster dose of the mRNA1273 vaccine. Humoral and cellular immune responses were measured 1 and 3 months after the second dose, and 1 month after the third dose. Results: One month after the second dose, 33.6% (45/134) of patients displayed a positive antibody response with a median (25th, 75th) antibody titer of 9 (7, 161) AU/mL. Three months after the second dose, 41.8% (56/134) tested positive with a median (25th, 75th) antibody titer of 18 (7, 251) AU/mL. After the booster dose, the seropositivity rate increased to 69.4% (93/134), with a median (25th, 75th) titer of 966 (10, 8027) AU/mL. The specific SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response was assessed in 44 randomly selected recipients 3 months after the second dose, and 11.4% (5/44) of them had a positive response. Following the third dose, 42% (21/50) tested positive. Side effects after the third dose were mild, with pain at the injection site being the most frequent adverse effect, reported by 73.4% of the recipients. Conclusion: Our study shows a mild delayed increase in antibody titer, three months after primary vaccination compared to one month after. It also shows a robust augmentation of humoral and specific T-cell responses after the booster dose, as well as the safety and tolerability of the mRNA vaccines in SOT recipients.

Predictive score for patients with carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales colonization upon admission in a tertiary care hospital in an endemic area.

OBJECTIVES: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) comprise important nosocomial pathogens worldwide. Colonized patients are the source of further dissemination in healthcare settings. Considering that timely detection of CPE carriers is pivotal but universal screening is unfeasible, we aimed to develop and validate a prediction score to detect patients harbouring CPE on hospital admission. METHODS: The study was conducted in a tertiary care hospital located in a CPE endemic area. Rectal swabs were obtained from 2303 patients, screened shortly after hospital admission. The Enterobacterales isolated in cultures were examined for the presence of blaVIM, KPC, NDM, OXA-48 by PCR. Demographic data and patient history of the previous 6 months were recorded. Risk factors for CPE carriage were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model and a points-system risk score was developed. The discriminative ability of the risk score was assessed using the AUC and its predictive performance was validated in a second dataset of 1391 patients in a different time period. RESULTS: Seven predictors were identified: previous CPE colonization or infection, prior hospitalization, stay in a long-term health care facility, history of ≥2 interventions, renal replacement therapy, diabetes with end-organ damage and Karnofsky score. The developed risk score in the derivation dataset ranged between 0 and 79 points, with an AUC of 0.84 in the derivation and 0.85 in the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction tool may assist in identifying patients who are at risk of harbouring CPE on hospital admission in an endemic area and guide clinicians to implement prompt and appropriate infection control measures.

A Network Approach to Determine Optimization of PrEP Uptake in Athens, Greece.

Although the HIV epidemic in Athens, Greece has reemerged and spread in men who have sex with men (MSM), state-supported PrEP programs have not been instituted. A PrEP intervention was implemented building upon an existing network cohort of MSM (308 participants; 1212 network members). A PrEP intervention cohort of 106 participants was selected based upon sex behaviors. Individual, partner, and network characteristics were compared between the cohorts. The PrEP cohort members were more highly connected and in more influential positions in the network than their peers. Further, their sexual network connections' behaviors increased their vulnerability to HIV infection relative to the rest of the network's sex partners. This included greater stimulant use (24.2% vs 7.0%; χ2 = 28.2; p < 0.001), greater rates of at least weekly condomless sex (OR = 2.7; 95% CI 2.1-3.5; χ2 = 59.2; p < 0.001) and at least weekly use of drugs or alcohol during sex (OR = 3.4; 95% CI 2.6-4.3; χ2 = 89.7; p < 0.001). Finally the PrEP cohort's social networks showed similarly increased vulnerability to seroconversion, including greater rates of injection drug use (4.1% vs 0.5%; χ2 = 3.9; p = 0.04), greater stimulant use (33.6% vs 14.6%; χ2 = 16.9, p < 0.001), and higher rates of recent STIs (21.6% vs 13.1%; χ2 = 4.4; p = 0.04). Thus, this PrEP intervention engaged individuals in vulnerable positions with vulnerable connections within an MSM community.

Effects of Social Distancing Measures during the First Epidemic Wave of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Infection, Greece.

Greece imposed a nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to mitigate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during the first epidemic wave. We conducted a survey on age-specific social contact patterns to assess effects of physical distancing measures and used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to simulate the epidemic. Because multiple distancing measures were implemented simultaneously, we assessed their overall effects and the contribution of each measure. Before measures were implemented, the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) was 2.38 (95% CI 2.01-2.80). During lockdown, daily contacts decreased by 86.9% and R0 decreased by 81.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71.8%-86.0%); each distancing measure decreased R0 by 10%-24%. By April 26, the attack rate in Greece was 0.12% (95% CrI 0.06%-0.26%), one of the lowest in Europe, and the infection fatality ratio was 1.12% (95% CrI 0.55%-2.31%). Multiple social distancing measures contained the first epidemic wave in Greece.

Food insecurity among people who inject drugs in Athens, Greece: a study in the context of ARISTOTLE programme.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the prevalence of food insecurity and explore related characteristics and behaviours among people who inject drugs (PWID). DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of a community-based programme for HIV infection among PWID (ARISTOTLE programme). Food insecurity was measured by the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale. Computer-assisted interviews and blood samples were also collected. SETTING: A fixed location in Athens Metropolitan Area, Greece, during 2012-2013. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 2834 unique participants with history of injecting drug use in the past 12 months were recruited over four respondent-driven sampling rounds (approximately 1400/round). RESULTS: More than 50 % of PWID were severely or moderately food insecure across all rounds. PWID were more likely to be severely food insecure if they were older than 40 years [adjusted OR (aOR): 1·71, 95 % CI: 1·33-2·19], were women (aOR: 1·49, 95 % CI: 1·17-1·89), from Middle East countries (aOR v. from Greece: 1·80, 95 % CI: 1·04-3·11), had a lower educational level (primary or secondary school v. higher education; aOR: 1·54, 95 % CI: 1·29-1·84), had no current health insurance (aOR: 1·45, 95 % CI: 1·21-1·73), were homeless (aOR: 17·1, 95 % CI: 12·3-23·8) or were living with another drug user (aOR: 1·55, 95 % CI: 1·26-1·91) as compared with those living alone or with family/friends. HIV-infected PWID were more likely to be severely food insecure compared with uninfected (59·0 % v. 51·0 %, respectively, P = 0·002); however, this difference was attributed to the confounding effect of homelessness. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate/severe food insecurity was a significant problem, reaching > 50 % in this sample of PWID and closely related to socio-demographic characteristics and especially homelessness.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV among people who inject drugs after the HIV-outbreak in Athens, Greece: Evidence for a 'slow burn' outbreak.

BACKGROUND: New diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece, saw a significant increase in 2011 and a subsequent decline after 2013. Despite this, ongoing HIV-1 transmission persisted from 2014 to 2020 within this population. Our objective was to estimate the time of infection for PWID in Athens following the HIV-1 outbreak, explore the patterns of HIV-1 dispersal over time, and determine the duration from infection to diagnosis. METHODS: Time from HIV-1 infection to diagnosis was estimated for 844 individuals infected within 4 PWID-specific clusters and for 8 PWID infected with sub-subtype A6 diagnosed during 2010-2019. Phylogeny reconstruction was performed using the maximum-likelihood method. HIV-1 infection dates were based on molecular clock calculations. RESULTS: In total 86 of 92 (93.5%) sequences from PWID diagnosed during 2016-2019 were either related to the previously identified PWID-specific clusters (n = 81) or belonged to a new A6 cluster (n = 5). The median time between infection and diagnosis was 0.42 years during the outbreak period and 0.70 years during 2016-2019 (p < 0.001). The proportion of clustered sequences from PWID was very low at 5.3% during the pre-outbreak period (1998-2009), saw an increase to 41.7% one year before the outbreak in 2010, and consistently remained high during the whole period after 2011, spanning the post-outbreak period (2016-2019) with a range from 92.9% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial proportion of clustered infections (93.5%) during 2016-2019 implies a persistent 'slow burn' HIV outbreak among PWID in Athens, suggesting that the outbreak was not successfully eliminated. The consistently high proportion of clustered sequences since the onset of the outbreak suggests the persistence of ongoing HIV-1 transmission attributed to injection practices. Our findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions among PWID, considering the ongoing transmission rate and prolonged time from infection to diagnosis.

High levels of all-cause mortality among people who inject drugs from 2018 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among people who inject drugs (PWID) is high, with overdose and HIV infection being the main causes of death. In Greece, there have been no data on mortality, and two HIV outbreaks have been recorded in this population in the past decade. In this study, we aim to estimate the all-cause crude mortality rate and the standardised mortality ratio in this population during 2018-2022. METHODS: PWID recruited from two community-based programs in Athens and Thessaloniki during 2018-2021 were interviewed and tested for HIV/HCV. Data on vital status (deceased/alive) and date of death were obtained from death registries through December 31, 2022. All-cause crude mortality rates (CMR) and standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were estimated. Determinants of mortality were assessed using Cox proportional-hazards model. RESULTS: Of 2,530 participants, 301 died over 8,543 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. The CMR (95 % CI) was 3.52 (3.15-3.94) deaths per 100 PYs; 3.10 per 100 PYs (2.68-3.58) in Athens and 4.48 per 100 PYs (3.74-5.37) in Thessaloniki. An increasing trend in CMR was identified over 2018-2022 in Athens (from 2.90 to 4.11 per 100 PYs, 41.5 % increase, p = 0.018). The pooled SMR (95 % CI) was 15.86 (14.17-17.76) for both cities and was particularly increased in younger individuals, females, those injecting daily, not enrolled to opioid agonist treatment and HIV-infected individuals. Older age, living in Thessaloniki, Greek origin, homelessness, history of injection in the past 12 months, and HIV infection were independently associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSION: Mortality among PWID in the two largest cities (Athens and Thessaloniki) in Greece in 2018-2022 was high, with the population in Thessaloniki being particularly affected. The increasing trend in mortality in Athens may reflect the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Preventive programs such as take-home naloxone, screening and treatment for HIV, are urgently needed.

A new outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece.

BACKGROUND: Multiple HIV outbreaks have been recorded among people who inject drugs (PWID) since 2010. During an intervention for PWID in 2019-2021 in Thessaloniki, Greece, an increasing number of HIV cases was documented. Here, we provide an analysis of this new outbreak. METHODS: ALEXANDROS was a community-based program and participation included interviewing, rapid HIV/HCV tests, counselling and linkage to care. PWID were recruited through Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) in five sampling rounds. Crude and RDS-weighted HIV prevalence estimates were obtained. HIV incidence was estimated from data on 380 initially seronegative PWID with at least two tests. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess risk factors for HIV seroconversion. RESULTS: In total, 1,101 PWID were recruited. At first participation, 53.7% were current PWID, 20.1% homeless, 20.3% on opioid substitution treatment and 4.8% had received syringes in the past 12 months. HIV prevalence (95% CI) was 7.0% (5.6-8.7%) and an increasing trend was observed over 2019-2021 (p = 0.002). Two-thirds of the cases (67.5%) were new diagnoses. HIV incidence was 7.0 new infections/100 person-years (95% CI:4.8-10.2). Homelessness in the past 12 months (HR:2.68; 95% CI:1.24-5.81) and receptive syringe sharing (HR:3.86; 95% CI:1.75-8.51) were independently associated with increased risk of seroconversion. By the end of the program, 67.3% of the newly diagnosed cases initiated antiretroviral treatment. CONCLUSIONS: A new HIV outbreak among PWID was documented in Greece during the COVID-19 pandemic with homelessness and syringe sharing being associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition. Peer-driven programs targeting the population of high-risk underserved PWID can be used to early identify emerging outbreaks and to improve linkage to HIV care.

Sudden cardiac death in childhood RASopathy-associated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Validation of the HCM risk-kids model and predictors of events.

BACKGROUND: RASopathies account for nearly 20% of cases of childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurs in patients with RASopathy-associated HCM, but the risk factors for SCD have not been systematically evaluated. AIM: To validate the HCM Risk-Kids SCD risk prediction model in children with RASopathy-associated HCM and investigate potential specific SCD predictors in this population. METHODS: Validation of HCM Risk-Kids was performed in a retrospective cohort of 169 patients with a RASopathy-associated HCM from 15 international paediatric cardiology centres. Multiple imputation by chained equations was used for missing values related to the HCM Risk-Kids parameters. RESULTS: Eleven patients (6.5%) experienced a SCD or equivalent event at a median age of 12.5 months (IQR 7.7-28.64). The calculated SCD/equivalent event incidence was 0.78 (95% CI 0.43-1.41) per 100 patient years. Six patients (54.54%) with an event were in the low-risk category according to the HCM Risk-Kids model. Harrell's C index was 0.60, with a sensitivity of 9.09%, specificity of 63.92%, positive predictive value of 1.72%, and negative predictive value of 91%; with a poor distinction between the different risk groups. Unexplained syncope (HR 42.17, 95% CI 10.49-169.56, p < 0.001) and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (HR 5.48, 95% CI 1.58-19.03, p < 0.007) were predictors of SCD on univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Unexplained syncope and the presence of NSVT emerge as predictors for SCD in children with RASopathy-associated HCM. The HCM Risk-Kids model may not be appropriate to use in this population, but larger multicentre collaborative studies are required to investigate this further.

Age-dependent effects on infectivity and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from nationwide contact tracing data in Greece.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the factors that affect the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 remains important to keep transmission low and maximize the health benefits of vaccination. We assessed the factors associated with the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 based on contact tracing data. METHODS: From 1 October to 9 December 2020, 29,385 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases (index cases, i.e. the first identified laboratory-confirmed cases or with the earliest symptom onset in a setting) and 64,608 traced contacts were identified in Greece. We assessed the prevalence of symptoms in cases, calculated secondary attack rates and assessed factors associated with infectivity and susceptibility to infection. RESULTS: There were 11,232 contacts secondarily infected (secondary attack rate: 17.4%, 95% CI:17.0-17.8). Contacts aged 0-11 and 12-17 years were less susceptible to infection than adults 65 years or older (odds ratio (OR) [95% CI]: 0.28 [0.26-0.32] and 0.44 [0.40-0.49], respectively). Index cases aged 65 years or older were more likely to infect their contacts than other adults or children/adolescents. The odds of infection [95% CI] were higher in contacts exposed within the household (1.71 [1.59-1.85] vs. other) and in cases with cough (1.17 [1.11-1.25] vs. no cough). There was an interaction between the age of the index and the age of the contact with contacts 65 years or older having a higher probability of infection when exposed to cases of similar age than to children. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the role of age and age mixing in infectivity and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Precautions are necessary for individuals 65 or older as they have higher infectivity and susceptibility in contact with their peers.

Trends in COVID-19 Vaccination Intent, Determinants and Reasons for Vaccine Hesitancy: Results from Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys in the Adult General Population of Greece during November 2020-June 2021.

Vaccine hesitancy is a major barrier to achieving large-scale COVID-19 vaccination. We report trends in vaccination intention and associated determinants from surveys in the adult general population in Greece. Four cross-sectional phone surveys were conducted in November 2020 and February, April and May 2021 on nationally representative samples of adults in Greece. Multinomial logistic regression was used on the combined data of the surveys to evaluate independent predictors of vaccination unwillingness/uncertainty. Vaccination intention increased from 67.6% in November 2020 to 84.8% in May 2021. Individuals aged 65 years or older were more willing to be vaccinated (May 2021: 92.9% vs. 79.5% in 18−39 years, p < 0.001) but between age-groups differences decreased over time. Vaccination intention increased substantially in both men and women, though earlier among men, and was higher in individuals with prograduate education (May 2021: 91.3% vs. 84.0% up to junior high). From multivariable analysis, unwillingness and/or uncertainty to be vaccinated was associated with younger age, female gender (in particular in the April 2021 survey), lower educational level and living with a child ≤12 years old. Among those with vaccine hesitancy, concerns about vaccine effectiveness declined over time (21.6% in November 2020 vs. 9.6% in May 2021, p = 0.014) and were reported more often by men; safety concerns remained stable over time (66.3% in November 2020 vs. 62.1% in May 2021, p = 0.658) and were reported more often by women. In conclusion, vaccination intention increased substantially over time. Tailored communication is needed to address vaccine hesitancy and concerns regarding vaccine safety.

Immunogenicity of the Two mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines in a Large Cohort of Dialysis Patients.

Chronic kidney disease patients, especially those on hemodialysis, are at the highest risk of a severe course and death from COVID-19. Moreover, they appear to have suboptimal response in both cellular and humoral immunity after vaccination. The present study investigated humoral and cellular response and safety after two doses of either of the two authorized mRNA vaccines in a cohort of 310 patients on maintenance dialysis. The antibody response rate was 94.5%, with a median (25th, 75th) antibody titer of 3478 (1236, 8141) AU/mL. Only mild adverse effects were observed. Only vaccine type was independently associated with immunogenicity. Α statistically significant difference in favor of mRNA1273 versus BNT162b2 vaccine was observed. Antibody positivity (100% vs. 94.3%, p < 0.001), median (25th, 75th) antibody levels: 9499 (6118, 20,780) AU/mL vs. 3269 (1220, 7807) AU/mL (p < 0.001). Among the 65 patients tested for T-cell response, 27 (41.5%) had a positive one with a median (25th, 75th) antibody titer of 6007 (3405, 12,068) AU/mL, while 38 with no T-cell response presented a lower median (25th, 75th) antibody titer of 1744 (850, 4176) AU/mL (p < 0.001). Both mRNA vaccines are safe for dialysis patients and can trigger humoral and cellular responses, although with lower titers than those that have been reported to healthy individuals.

Head-to-Head Comparison of Response Rates to the Two mRNA SARS-CοV-2 Vaccines in a Large Cohort of Solid Organ Transplant (SOT) Recipients.

Due to their higher risk of developing life-threatening COVID-19 disease, solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients have been prioritized in the vaccination programs of many countries. However, there is increasing evidence of reduced immunogenicity to SARS-CοV-2 vaccination. The present study investigated humoral response, safety, and effectiveness after the two mRNA vaccines in 455 SOT recipients. Overall, the antibody response rate was low, at 39.6%. Higher immunogenicity was detected among individuals vaccinated with the mRNA1273 compared to those with the BNT162b2 vaccine (47% vs. 36%, respectively, p = 0.025) as well as higher median antibody levels of 31 (7, 372) (AU/mL) vs. 11 (7, 215) AU/mL, respectively. Among the covariates assessed, vaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine, antimetabolite- and steroid-containing immunosuppression, female gender, the type of transplanted organ and older age were factors that negatively influenced immune response. Only mild adverse effects were observed. Our findings confirm poor immunogenicity after vaccination, implicating a reevaluation of vaccination policy in SOT recipients.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 Binding Antibody Waning 8 Months after BNT162b2 Vaccination.

Several lines of evidence suggest that binding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies such as anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG (anti-RBD) and neutralising antibodies (NA) are correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2, and the correlation of anti-RBD and NA is very high. The effectiveness (VE) of BNT162b2 in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection wanes over time, and this reduction is mainly associated with waning immunity, suggesting that the kinetics of antibodies reduction might be of interest to predict VE. In a study of 97 health care workers (HCWs) vaccinated with the BNT162b2 vaccine, we assessed the kinetics of anti-RBD 30-250 days after vaccination using 388 individually matched plasma samples. Anti-RBD levels declined by 85%, 92%, and 95% at the 4th, 6th, and 8th month from the peak, respectively. The kinetics were estimated using the trajectories of anti-RBD by various models. The restricted cubic splines model had a better fit to the observed data. The trajectories of anti-RBD declines were statistically significantly lower for risk factors of severe COVID-19 and the absence of vaccination side effects. Moreover, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with divergent trajectories consistent with a slower anti-RBD decline over time. These results suggest that anti-RBD may serve as a harbinger for vaccine effectiveness (VE), and it should be explored as a predictor of breakthrough infections and VE.

Ongoing HIV transmission following a large outbreak among people who inject drugs in Athens, Greece (2014-20).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece in 2011-13 was the largest recent epidemic in Europe and North America. We aimed to assess trends in HIV prevalence, drug use and access to prevention among PWID in Athens to estimate HIV incidence and identify risk factors and to explore HIV-1 dispersal using molecular methods during 2014-20. METHODS: Two community-based HIV/hepatitis C programmes on PWID were implemented in 2012-13 (n = 3320) and 2018-20 (n = 1635) through consecutive respondent-driven sampling (RDS) rounds. PWID were uniquely identified among rounds/programmes. We obtained RDS-weighted HIV prevalence estimates per round for 2018-20 and compared them to 2012-13. We assessed changes in HIV status, behaviours and access to prevention in PWID participating in both periods. We estimated HIV incidence in a cohort of seronegative PWID as the number of HIV seroconversions/100 person-years during 2014-20 and used Cox regression to identify associated risk factors. Molecular sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed in HIV seroconverters. RESULTS: HIV prevalence per round ranged between 12.0 and 16.2% in 2012-13 and 10.7 and 11.3% in 2018-20 with overlapping 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Among PWID participating in both programmes, HIV prevalence (95% CI) increased from 14.2% (11.7-17.1%) in 2012-13 to 22.0% (19.0-25.3%) in 2018-20 (P < 0.001). There was a deterioration in socio-economic characteristics such as homelessness [from 16.2% (95% CI = 13.5-19.2%) to 25.6% (22.3-29.0%)], a shift in cocaine use [16.6% (13.9-19.6%) versus 28.1% (24.7-31.7%], reduced access to free syringes [51.8% (48.0-55.7%) versus 44.5% (40.7-48.3%)] and a decrease in daily injecting [36.2% (32.6-39.9%) versus 28.5% (25.2-32.1%)]. HIV incidence (95% CI) in 2014-20 was 1.94 (1.50-2.52) new cases/100 person-years and younger age, lower educational level, larger injection network and daily injecting were risk factors. Almost 9% of HIV seroconversions occurred within a newly expanding phylogenetic cluster. CONCLUSIONS: In Athens, Greece, compared with the period 2012-13, in the period 2018-20 there was a deterioration in socio-economic conditions among people who inject drugs, an increase in the use of cocaine, reduced access to needle and syringe programmes and stable low levels of human immunodeficiency virus testing. Ongoing human immunodeficiency virus transmission was documented during 2014-20 in existing as well as new transmission clusters.

Tracking the risk factors associated with high-risk cSCC: A 10-year, Two-Institution, Greek study.

PURPOSE: We sought to identify independent risk factors for positive sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), local recurrence (LR), metastasis (M) and death caused by cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) (DCS) in high-risk cSCC patients. Moreover, we compared the Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) system with the previous used in Greece (based on tumor size) and proposed a new classification system. METHODS: 1,524 cSCC patients were enrolled between January 2004 and December 2014, from two medical institutions. Potential risk factors for SLNB (local recurrence/LR, metastasis/M, death caused by SCC/DCS) were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the included patients with a median follow-up of 60 months 107 developed local recurrence (7%) while 84 developed metastases (5.5%). Among 36 patients undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), 25% showed a positive SLNB with a false-negative result (11%). On multivariate analysis, key prognostic factors for LR were tumor diameter ≥2 cm, poor differentiation, incomplete excision and perineural invasion and for M were high-risk tumor site, tumor diameter ≥2 cm, poor differentiation, invasion beyond subcutaneous tissue, incomplete excision, perineural invasion and recurrence. DCS seems to be affected by tumor diameter ≥ 2 cm, poor differentiation, invasion beyond subcutaneous tissue, incomplete excision, perineural invasion and recurrence independently. CONCLUSIONS: These suggest the determined role of tumor diameter of cSCCs. Harnessing knowledge and collecting the up-to-date data along the clinical journey of high-risk cSCC, the future looks bright (development of new clinical trials, adjuvant therapies and tumor staging with SLNB).

Validation of molecular clock inferred HIV infection ages: Evidence for accurate estimation of infection dates.

BACKGROUND: Improving HIV diagnosis, access to care and effective antiretroviral treatment provides our global strategy to reduce HIV incidence. To reach this goal we need to increase our knowledge about local epidemics. HIV infection dates would be an important information towards this goal, but they are largely unknown. To date, methods to estimate the dates of HIV infection are based mainly on laboratory or molecular methods. Our aim was to validate molecular clock inferred infection dates that were estimated by analysing sequences from 145 people living with HIV (PLHIV) with known transmission dates (clinically estimated infection dates). METHODS: All HIV sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing and were previously found to belong to well-established molecular transmission clusters (MTCs). RESULTS: Our analysis showed that the molecular clock inferred infection dates were correlated with the clinically estimated ones (Spearman's Correlation coefficient = 0.93, p < 0.001) and that there was an agreement between them (Lin's concordance correlation coefficient = 0.92, p < 0.001). For the 61.4% of cases the molecular clock inferred preceded the clinically estimated infection dates. The median difference between clinically and molecularly estimated dates of infection was of 0.18 (IQR: -0.21, 0.89) years. The lowest differences were identified in people who inject drugs of our study population. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated time to more recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of nodes within clusters provides a reliable approximation of HIV infections for PLHIV infected within MTCs. Next-generation sequencing data and molecular clock estimates based on heterochronous sequences provide, probably, more reliable methods for inferring infection dates. However, since these data are not available in most of the HIV clinical laboratories, our approach, under specific conditions, can provide a reliable estimation of HIV infection dates and can be used for HIV public health interventions.