Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.

BACKGROUND: New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample). RESULTS: With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3-10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC. CONCLUSIONS: In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.

Mumps vaccine effectiveness of a 3rd dose of measles, mumps, rubella vaccine in school settings during a mumps outbreak -- Arkansas, 2016-2017.

Objectives: The largest mumps outbreak in the United States since 2006 occurred in Arkansas during the 2016-17 school year. An additional dose (third dose) of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR3) was offered to school children. We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of MMR3 compared with two doses of MMR for preventing mumps among school-aged children during the outbreak. Study design: A generalized linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE) of a third dose of MMR compared with two doses of MMR for preventing mumps. Methods: We obtained school enrollment, immunization status and mumps case status from school registries, Arkansas's immunization registry, and Arkansas's mumps surveillance system, respectively. We included students who previously received 2 doses of MMR in schools with ≥1 mumps case after the MMR3 clinic. We used a generalized linear mixed model to estimate VE of MMR3 compared with two doses of MMR. Results: Sixteen schools with 9272 students were included in the analysis. Incremental VE of MMR3 versus a two-dose MMR regimen was 52.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.6%‒78.4%) overall and in 8 schools with high mumps transmission it was 64.0% (95% CI: 1.2%‒86.9%). MMR3 VE was higher among middle compared with elementary school students (68.5% [95% CI: -30.2%‒92.4%] vs 37.6% [95% CI: -62.5%‒76.1%]); these differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Our findings suggest MMR3 provided additional protection from mumps compared with two MMR doses in elementary and middle school settings during a mumps outbreak.