Alarming predictions for obesity and non-communicable diseases in the Middle East.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens. DESIGN: A regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age- and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %. SETTING: Statistical modelling of obesity trends was carried out in nine Middle East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey). SUBJECTS: BMI data along with disease incidence, mortality and survival data from national and sub-national data sets were used for the modelling process. RESULTS: High rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. The burden of incident type 2 diabetes, CHD and stroke would be moderated with even small reductions in obesity levels. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity. The present results are important for policy makers to know the effectiveness of obesity interventions on future disease burden.

Obesity prevalence in Mexico: impact on health and economic burden.

OBJECTIVE: Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs. DESIGN: Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMI-related diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the population. SETTING: Mexican Health and Nutrition Surveys 1999 and 2000, and Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006. SUBJECTS: Mexican adults. RESULTS: In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050 there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806 million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1·2 billion and $US 1·7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.

Health and economic burden of obesity in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs. METHOD: A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2)), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population. CONCLUSION: Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.

High rates of obesity and non-communicable diseases predicted across Latin America.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease and stroke are a major public health concern across Latin America. A key modifiable risk factor for NCDs is overweight and obesity highlighting the need for policy to reduce prevalence rates and ameliorate rising levels of NCDs. A cross-sectional regression analysis was used to project BMI and related disease trends to 2050. We tested the extent to which interventions that decrease body mass index (BMI) have an effect upon the number of incidence cases avoided for each disease. Without intervention obesity trends will continue to rise across much of Latin America. Effective interventions are necessary if rates of obesity and related diseases are to be reduced.