The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn.

Front of pack nutritional labelling schemes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of recent evidence relating to objectively measured consumption and purchasing.

BACKGROUND: Front of pack labelling (FOPL) provides visible nutritional information and appears to influence knowledge and reformulation. However, a recent Cochrane review found limited and inconsistent evidence for behaviour change. The present review aimed to examine studies published subsequent the Cochrane review, focusing on prepackaged foods, examining the impact of FOPL on purchasing and consumption. METHODS: Controlled experimental/intervention and interrupted time series (ITS) studies were included, with no age/geography restrictions. Exposures were FOPL with objectively measured consumption/purchasing outcomes. Thirteen databases were searched (January 2017 to April 2019) and forward citation searching was undertaken on the included studies. Purchasing data from experimental studies were meta-analysed. Two series of meta-analyses were undertaken; combined FOPL versus no-FOPL and specific FOPL scheme versus no-FOPL. Outcomes were sugar (g 100 g-1 ), calories (kcal 100 g-1 ), saturated fat (g 100 g-1 ) and sodium (mg 100 g-1 ). RESULTS: We identified 14 studies, reporting consumption (experimental; n = 3) and purchasing (n = 8, experimental; n = 3, ITS). Meta-analysis of experimental studies showed sugar and sodium content of purchases was lower for combined FOPL versus no-FOPL (-0.40 g sugar 100 g-1 , P < 0.01; -24.482 mg sodium 100 g-1 , P = 0.012), with a trend for lower energy and saturated fat (-2.03 kcal 100 g-1 , P = 0.08; -0.154 g saturated fat 100 g-1 , P = 0.091). For specific FOPL, products purchased by 'high in' FOPL groups had lower sugar (-0.67 g sugar 100 g-1 , P ≤ 0.01), calories (-4.43 kcal 100 g-1 , P < 0.05), sodium (-33.78 mg 100 g-1 , P = 0.01) versus no-FOPL; Multiple Traffic Light had lower sodium (-34.94 mg 100 g-1 , P < 0.01) versus no-FOPL. Findings regarding consumption were limited and inconsistent. FOPL resulted in healthier purchasing in ITS studies. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides evidence from experimental and 'real-life' studies indicating that FOPL encourages healthier food purchasing. PROSPERO CRD42019135743.

Physical health complications in children and young people with avoidant restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID): a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Avoidant restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID) is a feeding and eating disorder with known acute and longstanding physical health complications in children and young people (CYP) and commonly presents to paediatricians. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the published literature on physical health complications in CYP with ARFID using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. METHODS: A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library was performed on 14 February 2024. Studies reporting physical health complications in CYP ≤25 years with ARFID were included. We pooled studies for meta-analysis comparing ARFID with healthy controls or anorexia nervosa (AN). RESULTS: Of 9058 studies found in searches, we included 132 studies. We found evidence for low weight, nutritional deficiencies and low bone mineral density. CYP with ARFID can present across the weight spectrum; however, the majority of CYP with ARFID were within the healthy weight to underweight range. Most studies reported normal range heart rates and blood pressures in ARFID, but some CYP with ARFID do experience bradycardia and hypotension. CYP with ARFID had higher heart rates than AN (weighted mean difference: 12.93 bpm; 95% CI: 8.65 to 17.21; n=685); heterogeneity was high (I2: 81.33%). CONCLUSION: There is a broad range of physical health complications associated with ARFID requiring clinical consideration. Many CYP with ARFID are not underweight yet still have complications. Less cardiovascular complications found in ARFID compared with AN may be related to chronicity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022376866.

Estimating the effects of preventive and weight-management interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in England: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of the systematic delivery of treatments for obesity are unknown. We aimed to estimate the potential effects on the prevalence of childhood obesity of systematically offering preventive and treatment interventions to eligible children in England, based on weight or health status. METHODS: For this modelling study, we developed a cross-sectional simulation model of the child and young adult population in England using data from multiple years of the Health Survey of England conducted between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019. Individuals were assessed for eligibility via age, BMI, and medical complications. Weight status was defined based on clinical criteria used by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Published systematic reviews were used to estimate effect sizes for treatments, uptake, and completion for each weight-management tier. We used all available evidence, including evidence from studies that showed an unfavourable effect. We estimated the effects of two systematic approaches: a staged approach, in which children and young people were simultaneously given the most intensive treatment for which they were eligible, and a stepped approach, in which each management tier was applied sequentially, with additive effects. The primary outcomes were estimated prevalence of clinical obesity, defined as a BMI ≥98th centile on the UK90 growth chart, and difference in comparison with the estimated baseline prevalence. FINDINGS: 18 080 children and young people were included in the analytical sample. Baseline prevalence of clinical obesity was estimated to be 11·2% (95% CI 10·5 to 11·8) for children and young people aged 2-18 years. In modelling, we estimated absolute decreases in the prevalence of obesity of 0·9% (95% CI 0·1 to 1·8) for universal, preventive interventions; 0·2% (0·1 to 0·4) for interventions within a primary-care setting; 1·0% (0·1 to 2·1) for community and lifestyle interventions; 0·2% (0·0 to 0·4) for pharmaceutical interventions; and 0·4% (0·1 to 0·7) for surgical interventions. Staged care was estimated to result in an absolute decrease in the prevalence of obesity of 1·3% (-0·3 to 2·4) and stepped care was estimated to lead to an absolute decrease of 2·4% (0·1 to 4·8). INTERPRETATION: Although individual effect sizes for prevention and treatment interventions were small, when delivered at scale across England, these interventions have the potential to meaningfully contribute to reducing the prevalence of childhood obesity. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Secondary Outcomes of a Front-of-Pack-Labelling Randomised Controlled Experiment in a Representative British Sample: Understanding, Ranking Speed and Perceptions.

Front-of-pack labels (FOPLs) provide simplified nutritional information that aims to inform consumer choice and encourage reformulation. We conducted an online randomised controlled experiment on a representative British sample to test the effectiveness of FOPLs across a range of outcomes. The primary outcomes have been published; here, we present the secondary outcomes: the ability to rank the healthiest product and the time to complete the rankings by comparing the FOPL groups and a no-label control, as well as a descriptive analysis of the perceptions. Participants from the NatCen panel were randomised to one of five experimental groups (Multiple Traffic Lights; Nutri-Score; Warning Label; Positive Choice tick; no-label control). Six food/drink categories were selected (pizza, drinks, cakes, crisps, yoghurts, breakfast cereals), and three products were created with varying healthiness. The participants (analytic sample = 4530) were asked to rank the products in order of healthiness twice (baseline: no label; follow-up: experimental group label). Compared to the control, the probability of correctly ranking the healthiest product at follow-up was significantly greater for the N-S, MTL and WL across all products. The time to correctly complete the ranking was fastest for the N-S, PC and no-label control. The descriptive analysis showed that the FOPLs were perceived favourably, and especially N-S and MTL. The findings were supportive of the primary analyses, with those results suggesting that N-S performed the best, and then MTL.

The impact on dietary outcomes of licensed and brand equity characters in marketing unhealthy foods to children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Licensed and brand equity characters are used to target children in the marketing of products high in fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS), but the impact of characters on dietary outcomes is unclear. The primary aim of this review was to quantify the impact of both licensed and brand equity characters on children's dietary outcomes given that existing regulations often differentiates between these character types. We systematically searched eight interdisciplinary databases and included studies from 2009 onwards until August 2021, including all countries and languages. Participants were children under 16 years, exposure was marketing for HFSS product with a character, and the outcomes were dietary consumption, preference, or purchasing behaviors of HFSS products. Data allowed for meta-analysis of taste preferences. A total of 16 articles (including 20 studies) met the inclusion criteria, of which five were included in the meta-analysis. Under experimental conditions, the use of characters on HFSS packaging compared with HFSS packaging with no character was found to result in significantly higher taste preference for HFSS products (standardized mean difference on a 5-point scale 0.273; p < 0.001). Narrative findings supported this, with studies reporting impact of both character types on product preferences including food liking and snack choice. There was limited evidence on the impact on purchase behaviors and consumption. These findings are supportive of policies that limit the exposure of HFSS food marketing using characters to children.

Is it possible to model the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity at a population level and across the range of deprivation: Evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).

BACKGROUND: Simulated interventions using observational data have the potential to inform policy and public health interventions where randomised controlled trials are not feasible. National childhood obesity policy is one such area. Overweight and obesity are primarily caused by energy-rich and low-nutrient diets that contribute to a positive net energy imbalance. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we investigated whether causal modelling techniques could be applied to simulate the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in obesity in childhood. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity at age 11 (UK90 cut offs) were estimated from logistic marginal structural models (MSM) accounting for observed calorie consumption at age 7 and confounding, overall and by maternal occupational social class. A series of population intervention scenarios were modelled to simulate daily calorie-reduction interventions that differed in effectiveness, targeting mechanism and programme uptake level. RESULTS: The estimated effect of maternal social class on obesity after accounting for confounding and observed calorie intake was provided by the controlled direct effect (CDE), in which, 18.3% of children were living with obesity at age 11 years,. A universal simulation to lower median intake to the estimated average requirement (EAR) (a 6.1% reduction in daily calories) with 75% uptake reduced overall obesity prevalence by 0.6%; there was little impact on inequalities. A targeted intervention to limit consumption to the EAR for children with above average intake reduced population obesity prevalence at 11 years by 1.5% but inequalities remained broadly unchanged. A targeted intervention for children of low-income families reduced prevalence by 0.7% and was found to slightly reduce inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: MSMs allow estimation of effects of simulated calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity prevalence and inequalities, although estimates are limited by the accuracy of reported calorie intake. Further work is needed to understand causal pathways and opportunities for intervention. Nevertheless, simulated intervention techniques have promise for informing national policy where experimental data are not available.

The Impact on Dietary Outcomes of Celebrities and Influencers in Marketing Unhealthy Foods to Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Celebrities, including influencers, are commonly used to market products that are high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) to children but the impact on dietary outcomes has been unclear. The primary aim of this study was to systematically review the literature and quantify the impact of celebrities in HFSS marketing on children's dietary outcomes. We searched eight databases and included studies from all countries and languages published from 2009 until August 2021. Participants were defined as under 16 years, exposure was marketing for HFSS products with a celebrity, and the outcomes were dietary preference, purchasing behaviors, and consumption of HFSS products. We were able to conduct a meta-analysis for consumption outcomes. Seven articles met the inclusion criteria, of which three were included in the meta-analysis. Under experimental conditions, the use of celebrities in HFSS marketing compared to non-food marketing was found to significantly increase consumption of the marketed HFSS product by 56.4 kcals (p = 0.021). There was limited evidence on the impact on preference or purchase intentions and on the comparisons between use and non-use of celebrities and influencers.

Advertising and Young People's Critical Reasoning Abilities: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Young people are exposed to an abundance of advertising for unhealthy products (eg, unhealthy foods, tobacco, alcohol). Because of their developing cognition, children may not be able to understand the intent of advertising. However, advertising restrictions often assume that adolescents have critical reasoning capacity and can resist the effects of advertising. This review seeks to assess whether the evidence supports this assumption. METHODS: Ten databases were searched in December 2020. Inclusion criteria were participants aged 6 to 17 years, any advertising exposure, objectively measured understanding or attitudinal outcome, a comparison, control, and between-group comparison. This study included all languages and excluded studies published pre-2010. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality. RESULTS: Thirty-eight articles were included. Meta-analysis of 9 studies with attitudinal outcomes indicated that unhealthy product advertising generated more positive brand or product attitudes compared with neutral or no advertising control in all ages. There were significant effects for digital and nondigital advertising formats. We found greater understanding did not protect against the impact of advertising on brand or product attitudes. Limitations include the inability to meta-analyze the impact of advertising on understanding or the influence of age. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence shows that the attitudes of young people were influenced by advertising. Critical reasoning abilities did not appear to be fully developed during adolescence and not found to be protective against the impact of advertising. Policymakers should ensure regulations to restrict marketing of unhealthy commodities protects adolescents as well as younger children.

Modeling the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in childhood obesity in the Southampton Women's Survey.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, rates of childhood obesity are high and inequalities in obesity have widened in recent years. Children with obesity face heightened risks of living with obesity as adults and suffering from associated morbidities. Addressing population prevalence and inequalities in childhood obesity is a key priority for public health policymakers in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Where randomized controlled trials are not possible, potential policy actions can be simulated using causal modeling techniques. OBJECTIVES: Using data from the Southampton Women's Survey (SWS), a cohort with high quality dietary and lifestyle data, the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities of childhood obesity was investigated. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity (using UK90 cut-offs) at age 6-7 years were estimated from logistic marginal structural models adjusting for observed calorie consumption at age 3 years (using food diaries) and confounding. A series of policy-relevant intervention scenarios were modeled to simulate reductions in energy intake (differing in effectiveness, the targeting mechanisms, and level of uptake). RESULTS: At age 6-7 years, 8.3% of children were living with obesity, after accounting for observed energy intake and confounding. A universal intervention to lower median energy intake to the estimated average requirement (a 13% decrease), with an uptake of 75%, reduced obesity prevalence by 1% but relative and absolute inequalities remained broadly unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Simulated interventions substantially reduced population prevalence of obesity, which may be useful in informing policymakers.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Front of Pack Labels: Findings from an Online Randomised-Controlled Experiment in a Representative British Sample.

Front of pack food labels (FOPLs) provide accessible nutritional information to guide consumer choice. Using an online experiment with a large representative British sample, we aimed to examine whether FOPLs improve participants' ability to identify the healthiness of foods and drinks. The primary aim was to compare ability to rank between FOPL groups and a no label control. Adults (≥18 years), recruited from the NatCen panel, were randomised to one of five experimental groups (Multiple Traffic Light, MTL; Nutri-Score, N-S; Warning Label, WL; Positive Choice tick, PC; no label control). Stratification variables were year of recruitment to panel, sex, age, government office region, and household income. Packaging images were created for three versions, varying in healthiness, of six food and drink products (pizza, drinks, cakes, crisps, yoghurts, breakfast cereals). Participants were asked to rank the three product images in order of healthiness. Ranking was completed on a single occasion and comprised a baseline measure (with no FOPL), and a follow-up measure including the FOPL as per each participant's experimental group. The primary outcome was the ability to accurately rank product healthiness (all products ranked correctly vs. any incorrect). In 2020, 4504 participants had complete data and were included in the analysis. The probability of correct ranking at follow-up, and improving between baseline and follow-up, was significantly greater across all products for the N-S, MTL and WL groups, compared to control. This was seen for only some of the products for the PC group. The largest effects were seen for N-S, followed by MTL. These analyses were adjusted for stratification variables, ethnicity, education, household composition, food shopping responsibility, and current FOPL use. Exploratory analyses showed a tendency for participants with higher compared to lower education to rank products more accurately. Conclusions: All FOPLs were effective at improving participants' ability to correctly rank products according to healthiness in this large representative British sample, with the largest effects seen for N-S, followed by MTL.

Obesity prevention in the early years: A mapping study of national policies in England from a behavioural science perspective.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that early life is critical for determining future obesity risk. A sharper policy focus on pregnancy and early childhood could help improve obesity prevention efforts. This study aimed to systematically identify and categorise policy levers used in England with potential to influence early life course (pregnancy, 0-5 years) and identify how these interface with energy balance behaviours. The objective is to identify gaps and where further policy actions could most effectively focus. METHODS: A behavioural science approach was taken using the Capability-Opportunity-Motivation-Behaviour (COM-B) model and Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) framework. The key determinants of energy balance in the early years were identified from the Foresight Systems Map. Policy actions were scoped systematically from available literature, including any health or non-health policies which could impact on energy balance behaviours. Foresight variables and policy actions were considered in terms of COM-B and the BCW to determine approaches likely to be effective for obesity prevention and treatment. Existing policies were overlaid across the map of key risk factors to identify gaps in obesity prevention and treatment provision. RESULTS: A wide range of policy actions were identified (n = 115) to address obesity-relevant risk factors. These were most commonly educational or guidelines relating to environmental restructuring (i.e. changing the physical or social context). Scope for strengthening policies relating to the food system (e.g. the market price of food) and psychological factors contributing to obesity were identified. Policies acted via all aspects of the COM-B model, but there was scope for improving policies to increase capability through skills acquisition and both reflective and automatic motivation. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial policy activity to address early years obesity but much is focused on education. Scope exists to strengthen actions relating to upstream policies which act on food systems and those targeting psychological factors contributing to obesity risk.

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review.

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

The effect of screen advertising on children's dietary intake: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Evidence indicates that screen advertising for unhealthy food results in significant increases in dietary intake among children. This review was undertaken with the main aim of estimating the quantitative effect of screen advertising in experimental and nonexperimental conditions on children's dietary intake. Systematic searches were undertaken of interdisciplinary databases. Studies from 1980 to April 2018, all geography and languages, were included; participants were children and adolescents aged between 2 and 18 years; the intervention was screen advertising; and the outcome was dietary intake. Meta-analyses were conducted for measured and nonmeasured outcomes. Food advertising was found to increase dietary intake among children (age range 2-14, mean 8.8 years) in experimental conditions for television (TV) advertising and advergames. Meta-analysis revealed that children exposed to food advertising on TV (11 studies) and advergames (five studies) respectively consumed an average 60.0 kcal (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-116.9) and 53.2 kcal (95% CI, 31.5-74.9) more than children exposed to nonfood advertising. There was also an effect by body mass index (BMI). Findings from nonexperimental studies revealed that exposure to TV food advertising was positively associated with and predictive of dietary intake in children. Short-term exposure to unhealthy food advertising on TV and advergames increases immediate calorie consumption in children.

Impact of childhood experience and adult well-being on eating preferences and behaviours.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relative contribution of childhood experience, measured by childhood violence and childhood happiness, and adult well-being on adult eating preferences and behaviours, independent of proximal factors such as current deprivation. DESIGN: A cross-sectional, stratified, randomised sample survey using retrospective measures of childhood violence and happiness and self-reported measures of current well-being. SETTING: The North West Region of England between September 2012 and March 2013. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 18-95-year-olds from randomly selected households (participation was successful for 90% of eligible households and 78% of the total visited addresses; n=11,243). OUTCOMES: Dichotomised measures for preference of healthy foods or 'feel good' foods and low or high daily fruit and vegetable consumption. RESULTS: After correcting for demographics, combined categories for childhood experience and dichotomised measures of adult well-being were found to be significantly related to adult food preferences and eating behaviours. Participants with unhappy and violent childhoods compared to those with happy and non-violent childhoods had adjusted ORs (95% CI, significance) of 2.67 (2.15 to 3.06, p<0.001) of having low daily fruit and vegetable intake (two or less portions) and 1.53 (1.29 to 1.81, p<0.001) of choosing 'feel good' foods over foods which were good for their long term health. CONCLUSIONS: Daily intake of fruit and vegetables, linked to non-communicable diseases, and preference for 'feel good' foods, linked to obesity, are affected by childhood experience and adult well-being independent of demographic factors. Preventative interventions which support parent-child relationships and improve childhood experience are likely to reduce the development of poor dietary and other health-risk behaviours.