Application of the updated International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool in children one or two years post-biopsy.

The pediatric International IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) Prediction Tool comprises two models with and without ethnicity and is the first method to predict the risk of a 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or kidney failure in children at the time of biopsy using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. However, it is unknown if the Prediction Tool can be applied after a period of observation post-biopsy. Using an international multi-ethnic cohort of 947 children with IgAN, 38% of whom were followed into adulthood, the Prediction Tool was updated for use one year after biopsy. Compared to the original pediatric Prediction Tool, the updated post-biopsy Prediction Tool had a better model fit with higher R2D (51%/50% vs 20%), significant increase in 4-year C-statistics (0.83 vs 0.73/0.69, ΔC 0.09 [95% confidence interval 0.07-0.10] and ΔC 0.14 [0.12-0.15]) and better 4-year calibration with lower integrated calibration indices (0.74/0.54 vs 2.45/1.01). Results were similar after internal validation and when the models were applied two years after biopsy. Trajectories of eGFR after a baseline one year post-biopsy were non-linear and those at higher predicted risk started with a lower eGFR and experienced a more rapid decline over time. In children, eGFR had a variable rate of increase until 15-18 years old and then decreased linearly with a more rapid decline in higher risk groups that was similar to young adults of comparable risk. Thus, the original pediatric Prediction Tool should be used in children at the time of biopsy, and the updated pediatric Prediction Tool should be used to re-evaluate risk one or two years after biopsy.

Convalescent or standard plasma versus standard of care in the treatment of COVID-19 patients with respiratory impairment: short and long-term effects. A three-arm randomized controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of early treatment with convalescent plasma in patients with COVID-19 is debated. Nothing is known about the potential effect of other plasma components other than anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. METHODS: To determine whether convalescent or standard plasma would improve outcomes for adults in early phase of Covid19 respiratory impairment we designed this randomized, three-arms, clinical trial (PLACO COVID) blinded on interventional arms that was conducted from June 2020 to August 2021. It was a multicentric trial at 19 Italian hospitals. We enrolled 180 hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia within 5 days from the onset of respiratory distress. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to standard of care (n = 60) or standard of care + three units of standard plasma (n = 60) or standard of care + three units of high-titre convalescent plasma (n = 60) administered on days 1, 3, 5 after randomization. Primary outcome was 30-days mortality. Secondary outcomes were: incidence of mechanical ventilation or death at day 30, 6-month mortality, proportion of days with mechanical ventilation on total length of hospital stay, IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion, viral clearance from plasma and respiratory tract samples, and variations in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The trial was analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: 180 patients (133/180 [73.9%] males, mean age 66.6 years [IQR 57-73]) were enrolled a median of 8 days from onset of symptoms. At enrollment, 88.9% of patients showed moderate/severe respiratory failure. 30-days mortality was 20% in Control arm, 23% in Convalescent (risk ratio [RR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-2.13, P = 0.694) and 25% in Standard plasma (RR 1.23; 95%CI, 0.63-2.37, P = 0.544). Time to viral clearance from respiratory tract was 21 days for Convalescent, 28 for Standard plasma and 23 in Control arm but differences were not statistically significant. No differences for other secondary endpoints were seen in the three arms. Serious adverse events were reported in 1.7%, 3.3% and 5% of patients in Control, Standard and Convalescent plasma arms respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Neither high-titer Convalescent nor Standard plasma improve outcomes of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04428021. First posted: 11/06/2020.

Development and testing of an artificial intelligence tool for predicting end-stage kidney disease in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy.

We have developed an artificial neural network prediction model for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) using a retrospective cohort of 948 patients with IgAN. Our tool is based on a two-step procedure of a classifier model that predicts ESKD, and a regression model that predicts development of ESKD over time. The classifier model showed a performance value of 0.82 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) in patients with a follow-up of five years, which improved to 0.89 at the ten-year follow-up. Both models had a higher recall rate, which indicated the practicality of the tool. The regression model showed a mean absolute error of 1.78 years and a root mean square error of 2.15 years. Testing in an independent cohort of 167patients with IgAN found successful results for 91% of the patients. Comparison of our system with other mathematical models showed the highest discriminant Harrell C index at five- and ten-years follow-up (81% and 86%, respectively), paralleling the lowest Akaike information criterion values (355.01 and 269.56, respectively). Moreover, our system was the best calibrated model indicating that the predicted and observed outcome probabilities did not significantly differ. Finally, the dynamic discrimination indexes of our artificial neural network, expressed as the weighted average of time-dependent areas under the curve calculated at one and two years, were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Similar results were observed over a 25-year follow-up period. Thus, our tool identified individuals who were at a high risk of developing ESKD due to IgAN and predicted the time-to-event endpoint. Accurate prediction is an important step toward introduction of a therapeutic strategy for improving clinical outcomes.

Updating the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool for use in children.

Although IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of glomerulonephritis in children, the absence of a method to predict disease progression limits personalized risk-based treatment decisions. The adult International IgAN Prediction Tool comprises two validated Cox survival models that predict a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end stage kidney disease (ESKD) using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. Here, we updated the Prediction Tool for use in children using a multiethnic international cohort of 1,060 children with IgAN followed into adulthood. The updated pediatric Prediction Tool had better model fit than the original adult tool with lower Akaike Information Criterion, higher R2D and similar C-statistics. However, calibration showed very poor agreement between predicted and observed risks likely due to the observed disease trajectory in children. Therefore, the Tool was updated using a secondary outcome of a 30% reduction in eGFR or ESKD, resulting in better R2D (30.3%/22.2%) and similar C-statistics (0.74/0.68) compared to the adult tool but with good calibration. The trajectory of eGFR over time in children differed from adults being highly non-linear with an increase until 18 years old followed by a linear decline similar to that of adults. A higher predicted risk was associated with a smaller increase in eGFR followed by a more rapid decline, suggesting that children at risk of a 30% decrease in eGFR will eventually experience a larger 50% decrease in eGFR when followed into adulthood. As such, these two outcomes are analogous between pediatric and adult Prediction Tools. Thus, our pediatric Prediction Tool can accurately predict the risk of a 30% decline in eGFR or ESKD in children with IgAN.

The switch from proteasome to immunoproteasome is increased in circulating cells of patients with fast progressive immunoglobulin A nephropathy and associated with defective CD46 expression.

The proteasome to immunoproteasome (iPS) switch consists of ß1, ß2 and ß5 subunit replacement by low molecular weight protein 2 (LMP2), LMP7 and multicatalytic endopeptidase-like complex-1 (MECL1) subunits, resulting in a more efficient peptide preparation for major histocompatibility complex 1 (MHC-I) presentation. It is activated by toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists and interferons and may also be influenced by genetic variation. In a previous study we found an iPS upregulation in peripheral cells of patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). We aimed to investigate in 157 IgAN patients enrolled through the multinational Validation Study of the Oxford Classification of IgAN (VALIGA) study the relationships between iPS switch and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modifications from renal biopsy to sampling. Patients had a previous long follow-up (6.4 years in median) that allowed an accurate calculation of their slope of renal function decline. We also evaluated the effects of the PSMB8/PSMB9 locus (rs9357155) associated with IgAN in genome-wide association studies and the expression of messenger RNAs (mRNAs) encoding for TLRs and CD46, a C3 convertase inhibitor, acting also on T-regulatory cell promotion, found to have reduced expression in progressive IgAN. We detected an upregulation of LMP7/ß5 and LMP2/ß1 switches. We observed no genetic effect of rs9357155. TLR4 and TLR2 mRNAs were found to be significantly associated with iPS switches, particularly TLR4 and LMP7/ß5 (P < 0.0001). The LMP7/ß5 switch was significantly associated with the rate of eGFR loss (P = 0.026), but not with eGFR at biopsy. Fast progressors (defined as the loss of eGFR >75th centile, i.e. -1.91 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were characterized by significantly elevated LMP7/ß5 mRNA (P = 0.04) and low CD46 mRNA expression (P < 0.01). A multivariate logistic regression model, categorizing patients by different levels of kidney disease progression, showed a high prediction value for the combination of high LMP7/ß5 and low CD46 expression.

Is there long-term value of pathology scoring in immunoglobulin A nephropathy? A validation study of the Oxford Classification for IgA Nephropathy (VALIGA) update.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether renal pathology lesions in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) correlate with renal outcomes over decades of follow-up. METHODS: In 1130 patients of the original Validation Study of the Oxford Classification for IgA Nephropathy (VALIGA) cohort, we studied the relationship between the MEST score (mesangial hypercellularity, M; endocapillary hypercellularity, E; segmental glomerulosclerosis, S; tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, T), crescents (C) and other histological lesions with both a combined renal endpoint [50% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) loss or kidney failure] and the rate of eGFR decline over a follow-up period extending to 35 years [median 7 years (interquartile range 4.1-10.8)]. RESULTS: In this extended analysis, M1, S1 and T1-T2 lesions as well as the whole MEST score were independently related with the combined endpoint (P < 0.01), and there was no effect modification by age for these associations, suggesting that they may be valid in children and in adults as well. Only T lesions were associated with the rate of eGFR loss in the whole cohort, whereas C showed this association only in patients not treated with immunosuppression. In separate prognostic analyses, the whole set of pathology lesions provided a gain in discrimination power over the clinical variables alone, which was similar at 5 years (+2.0%) and for the whole follow-up (+1.8%). A similar benefit was observed for risk reclassification analyses (+2.7% and +2.4%). CONCLUSION: Long-term follow-up analyses of the VALIGA cohort showed that the independent relationship between kidney biopsy findings and the risk of progression towards kidney failure in IgAN remains unchanged across all age groups and decades after the renal biopsy.

Defective gene expression of the membrane complement inhibitor CD46 in patients with progressive immunoglobulin A nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Complement is thought to play a role in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), though the activating mechanisms are unknown. This study focused on the gene expression of CD46 and CD55, two key molecules for regulating C3 convertase activity of lectin and alternative complement pathways at a cellular level. METHODS: The transcriptional expression in peripheral white blood cells (WBCs) of CD46 and CD55 was investigated in 157 patients enrolled by the Validation of the Oxford Classification of IgAN group, looking for correlations with clinical and pathology features and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modifications from renal biopsy to sampling. Patients had a previous median follow-up of 6.4 (interquartile range 2.8-10.7) years and were divided into progressors and non-progressors according to the median value of their velocity of loss of renal function per year (-0.41 mL/min/1.73 m2/year). RESULTS: CD46 and CD55 messenger RNA (mRNA) expression in WBCs was not correlated with eGFR values or proteinuria at sampling. CD46 mRNA was significantly correlated with eGFR decline rate as a continuous outcome variable (P = 0.014). A significant difference was found in CD46 gene expression between progressors and non-progressors (P = 0.013). CD46 and CD55 mRNA levels were significantly correlated (P < 0.01), although no difference between progressors and non-progressors was found for CD55 mRNA values. The prediction of progression was increased when CD46 and CD55 mRNA expressions were added to clinical data at renal biopsy (eGFR, proteinuria and mean arterial blood pressure) and Oxford MEST-C (mesangial hypercellularity, endocapillary hypercellularity, segmental glomerulosclerosis, tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, presence of any crescents) score. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with progressive IgAN showed lower expression of mRNA encoding for the complement inhibitory protein CD46, which may implicate a defective regulation of C3 convertase with uncontrolled complement activation.

Is the benefit of treating patients with cirrhosis proven?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis is an extremely heterogeneous pathological condition with a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations, ranging from pre-clinical to compensated and decompensated stages, each of which is characterized by a different clinical outcome. To measure the benefit of a sustained virological response (SVR) with interferon (IFN)-based therapy, several studies have been performed in patients with compensated disease, while only a few have been performed in decompensated disease. Nevertheless, these studies have certain methodological weaknesses that may limit the accuracy of results. Access to new, more effective and safe direct acting antivirals (DAAs) has significantly changed these outcomes, with SVR rates that were not seen previously, making antiviral treatment available to patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the clinical benefit of treating patients with late stage disease is still poorly understood and must be investigated. The existence of a point of no return beyond which a SVR is not beneficial has not yet been determined. All of these issues are discussed in this review.

Histologic and Clinical Factors Associated with Kidney Outcomes in IgA Vasculitis Nephritis.

BACKGROUND: Nephritis is a common manifestation of IgA vasculitis and is morphologically indistinguishable from IgA nephropathy. While MEST-C scores are predictive of kidney outcomes in IgA nephropathy, their value in IgA vasculitis nephritis has not been investigated in large multiethnic cohorts. METHODS: Biopsies from 262 children and 99 adults with IgA vasculitis nephritis ( N =361) from 23 centers in North America, Europe, and Asia were independently scored by three pathologists. MEST-C scores were assessed for correlation with eGFR/proteinuria at biopsy. Because most patients ( N =309, 86%) received immunosuppression, risk factors for outcomes were evaluated in this group using latent class mixed models to identify classes of eGFR trajectories over a median follow-up of 2.7 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.1). Clinical and histologic parameters associated with each class were determined using logistic regression. RESULTS: M, E, T, and C scores were correlated with either eGFR or proteinuria at biopsy. Two classes were identified by latent class mixed model, one with initial improvement in eGFR followed by a late decline (class 1, N =91) and another with stable eGFR (class 2, N =218). Class 1 was associated with a higher risk of an established kidney outcome (time to ≥30% decline in eGFR or kidney failure; hazard ratio, 5.84; 95% confidence interval, 2.37 to 14.4). Among MEST-C scores, only E1 was associated with class 1 by multivariable analysis. Other factors associated with class 1 were age 18 years and younger, male sex, lower eGFR at biopsy, and extrarenal noncutaneous disease. Fibrous crescents without active changes were associated with class 2. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney outcome in patients with biopsied IgA vasculitis nephritis treated with immunosuppression was determined by clinical risk factors and endocapillary hypercellularity (E1) and fibrous crescents, which are features that are not part of the International Study of Diseases of Children classification.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation may restore gluten tolerance in patients with celiac disease.

We report on 2 patients affected by both celiac disease (CD) and ß-thalassemia major who underwent successful myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for the latter condition. After HSCT, the introduction of a gluten-containing diet did not cause the reappearance of clinical, serological, and histological markers of CD in up to 5 years of follow-up. After transplantation, in both patients, dendritic cells and regulatory FoxP3T cells showed a recovery of normal values and no proliferative T-cell response upon gliadin stimulation was found. These data suggest that allogeneic HSCT may lead to induction of gluten tolerance in patients with CD.

Post-hoc analysis of a tool to predict kidney failure in patients with IgA nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Recently, a tool based on two different artificial neural networks has been developed. The first network predicts kidney failure (KF) development while the second predicts the time frame to reach this outcome. In this study, we conducted a post-hoc analysis to evaluate the discordant results obtained by the tool. METHODS: The tool performance was analyzed in a retrospective cohort of 1116 adult IgAN patients, as were the causes of discordance between the predicted and observed cases of KF. RESULTS: There was discordance between the predicted and observed KF in 216 IgAN patients (19.35%) all of whom were elderly, hypertensive, had high serum creatinine levels, reduced renal function and moderate or severe renal lesions. Many of these patients did not receive therapy or were non-responders to therapy. In other IgAN patients the tool predicted KF but the outcome was not reached because patients responded to therapy. Therefore, in the discordant group (prediction did not match the observed outcome) the proportion of patients having or not having KF was strongly associated with treatment (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The post-hoc analysis shows that discordance in a low number of patients is not an error, but rather the effect of positive response to therapy. Thus, the tool could both help physicians to determine the prognosis of the disease and help patients to plan for their future.

Treatment discontinuation with peg-interferon: what to consider.

Eradication of chronic hepatitis C virus infection improves the outcome of both liver and extrahepatic-related diseases and interferon-based regimens represented, for years, the standard of care to achieve this goal. Several baseline and on-treatment predictors of response, associated with a lower chance to achieve sustained virological response after interferon-based treatment, were developed. In the past few years, the advent of direct acting antivirals has dramatically modified the landscape of antiviral therapy, leading to an evolution from interferon-based to interferon-free therapies. This review will focus on the usefulness of futility stopping rules that allow the discontinuation of therapy in patients with a reduced chance to obtain sustained virological response if treated with interferon-containing regimens.

12 weeks of interferon-based therapy is feasible in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis and thrombocytopenia: A post hoc analysis of eltrombopag studies.

BACKGROUND: A 24-48-week course of interferon-based therapy poorly tolerated in hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis patients with thrombocytopenia. Aim of the study was to identify patients at low-risk of liver-related complications over a 12-week course of interferon-based therapy. METHODS: We assessed the rate of complications and death during the first 12 weeks of interferon-based therapy in HCV cirrhotics with thrombocytopenia (platelets ≤75×10(9)/L) enrolled in the ENABLE-1 and -2 phase 3 randomised controlled trials. RESULTS: Overall, among 1441 patients, 89 complications (6.9%) and 10 deaths (0.7%) were observed within the first 12 weeks of therapy. At univariate analysis baseline albumin levels and Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (≤35 g /L, p<0.001, and ≥10, p<0.001, respectively) were the only predictors associated with occurrence of complications and death. Of the 1026 patients with serum albumin >35 g/L (71.2%), one patient died (0.1%) and 17 experienced liver-related complications (1.7%). Among 667 patients with serum albumin >35 g/L and MELD score <10, no deaths occurred and 4 experienced liver-related complications (0.6%). CONCLUSION: Among HCV cirrhotic patients with thrombocytopenia, albumin levels and MELD score can identify patients who may safely receive a 12-week course of interferon-based therapy with a low risk of complications.

Validation of the Italian translation of the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life is an important measure of treatment outcome; its evaluation requires the use of internationally validated ad hoc questionnaires. The McMaster Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ) is the most used specific instrument. AIM: To assess the validity and reliability of the Italian translation of the IBDQ. METHODS: The IBDQ underwent forward and backward translation; 13 patients were enrolled for cognitive testing of the Italian version to increase clarity. For field testing, 113 patients (65 with Crohn's disease and 48 with ulcerative colitis) completed both the IBDQ and the generic instrument 36-item Short Form Health Survey scale (SF-36). RESULTS: Data quality was optimal with high completeness and low floor and ceiling effect. Item internal consistency was satisfied for 100% of patients, while discriminant validity showed a few items with higher correlations with other scales. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.96. Test-retest correlations indicated good reliability (Pearson R 0.81). Exploratory factor analysis indicated that the original grouping of the item was suboptimal. The score proved sensitive to disease activity, gender and quality of life as measured by the SF-36. CONCLUSIONS: The Italian translation of the McMaster Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire sounds natural and is easy to understand. A field test gave results comparable to other international validations, supporting its use in cross-national surveys.