Risk scores for predicting incident heart failure admission in patients with chronic coronary syndromes: Validation in a prospective, monocentric, long-term, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) admission in chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients has a prognostic impact. Stratification schemes have been described for predicting this endpoint, but none of them has been externally validated. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to develop point scores for predicting incident HF admission with data from previous studies, to perform an external validation in an independent prospective cohort and to compare their discriminative ability for this event. METHODS: Independent predictive variables of HF admission in CCS patients without baseline HF were selected from four previous prospective studies (CARE, PEACE, CORONOR and CLARIFY), generating scores based on the relative magnitude of the coefficients of Cox of each variable. Finally, the scores were validated and compared in a monocentric prospective cohort. RESULTS: The validation cohort included 1212 patients followed for up to 17 years, with 171 patients suffering at least one HF admission in the follow-up. Discriminative ability for predicting HF admission was statistically significant for all, and paired comparisons among them were all nonsignificant except for CORONOR score was superior to CLARIFY score (C-statistic 0.73, 95%CI 0.69-0.76 vs. 0.69, 95% CI 0.65-0.73; p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: All tested scores showed significant discriminative ability for predicting incident HF admission in this independent validation study. Their discriminative ability was similar, with significant differences only between the two scores with higher and lower performance.

Long-term Survival in a Spanish Population With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease. The CICCOR Registry.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Data are lacking on the long-term prognosis of stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD). Our aim was to analyze long-term survival in patients with SIHD and to identify predictors of mortality. METHODS: A total of 1268 outpatients with SIHD were recruited in this single-center prospective cohort study from January 2000 to February 2004. Cardiovascular and all-cause death during follow-up were registered. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were compared with those in the Spanish population adjusted by age, sex, and year. Predictors of these events were investigated. RESULTS: The mean age was 68±10 years and 73% of the patients were male. After a follow-up lasting up to 17 years (median 11 years), 629 (50%) patients died. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality were age (HR, 1.08; 95%CI, 1.07-1.11; P <.001), diabetes (HR, 1.36; 95%CI, 1.14-1.63; P <.001), resting heart rate (HR, 1.01; 95%CI, 1.00-1.02; P <.001), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.61; 95%CI, 1.22-2.14; P=.001), electrocardiographic changes (HR, 1.23; 95%CI, 1.02-1.49; P=.02) and active smoking (HR, 1.85; 95%CI, 1.31-2.80; P=.001). All-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality rates were significantly higher in the sample than in the general Spanish population (47.81/1000 patients/y vs 36.29/1000 patients/y (standardized mortality rate, 1.31; 95%CI, 1.21-1.41) and 15.25/1000 patients/y vs 6.94/1000 patients/y (standardized mortality rate, 2.19; 95%CI, 1.88-2.50, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate was higher in this sample of patients with SIHD than in the general population. Several clinical variables can identify patients at higher risk of death during follow-up.

[Prevalence and annual risk of tuberculosis infection in the school population aged 7 years old in Ceuta (Spain)]. / Prevalencia y riesgo anual de infeccion por tuberculosis en la población escolar de 7 años de edad de Ceuta.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of tuberculosis infection and annual risk of infection in the school population of Ceuta. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted. A tuberculin test (2UT RT-23 Tween 80) was given to 7-year-old schoolchildren in Ceuta in 2008. A positive result was considered as an induration of ≥5 mm at 72 hours in unvaccinated children. RESULTS: A total of 612 children were studied. The prevalence of tuberculosis infection was 0.98% (95% confidence interval with a 2.5% margin of error). The distribution showed differences among three health areas, and was greatest in the most deprived area (2.07%). The annual risk of infection was 0.15%. CONCLUSIONS: According to the most recent studies, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in Ceuta is one of the highest of Spain. Our results do not agree with the epidemiological data for tuberculosis in Ceuta, which also includes imported cases.