Managing the risks associated with technological disruption in the road transport system: a control structure modelling approach.

Road transport is experiencing disruptive change from new first-of-a-kind technologies. While such technologies offer safety and operational benefits, they also pose new risks. It is critical to proactively identify risks during the design, development and testing of new technologies. The Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) method analyses the dynamic structure in place to manage safety risks. This study applied STAMP to develop a control structure model for emerging technologies in the Australian road transport system and identified control gaps. The control structure shows the actors responsible for managing risks associated with first-of-a-kind technologies and the existing control and feedback mechanisms. Gaps identified related to controls (e.g. legislation) and feedback mechanisms (e.g. monitoring for behavioural adaptation). The study provides an example of how STAMP can be used to identify control structure gaps requiring attention to support the safe introduction of new technologies.

This paper considers emerging risks associated with new technologies in the road transport system. It demonstrates a novel approach using STAMP to identify gaps in control and feedback mechanisms within the existing control structure which should be addressed to mitigate risk.

Forecasting emergent risks in advanced AI systems: an analysis of a future road transport management system.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being increasingly implemented within road transport systems worldwide. Next generation of AI, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is imminent, and is anticipated to be more powerful than current AI. AGI systems will have a broad range of abilities and be able to perform multiple cognitive tasks akin to humans that will likely produce many expected benefits, but also potential risks. This study applied the EAST Broken Links approach to forecast the functioning of an AGI system tasked with managing a road transport system and identify potential risks. In total, 363 risks were identified that could have adverse impacts on the stated goals of safety, efficiency, environmental sustainability, and economic performance of the road system. Further, risks beyond the stated goals were identified; removal from human control, mismanaging public relations, and self-preservation. A diverse set of systemic controls will be required when designing, implementing, and operating future advanced technologies.Practitioner summary: This study demonstrated the utility of HFE methods for formally considering risks associated with the design, implementation, and operation of future technologies. This study has implications for AGI research, design, and development to ensure safe and ethical AGI implementation.

State-of-science: situation awareness in individuals, teams and systems.

Our review addresses one of the most used, but debated, topics in Ergonomics: Situation Awareness (SA). We examine and elaborate upon key SA models. These models are divided into individual SA, team SA and systems SA categories. Despite, or perhaps because of, the debates surrounding SA it remains an enduring theme for research and practice in the domain of Ergonomics, now for over two decades. A contingent approach, which seeks to match different models of SA to different types of ergonomics problem, enables the differences between positions to be revealed and reconciled, and the practitioner guided towards optimum methodological solutions. Practitioner Summary: Measuring SA in individuals, teams and systems has become a key objective in Ergonomics. One single approach to SA does not fit all problems encountered. This review shows the importance of considering all three types of models and achieving a match between them and the problem at hand.

Perceived impacts of stressful events on train driver performance.

Acute stress exposure can significantly impact a train driver's capacity to maintain safe train operations. However, research examining how train drivers perceive the impacts of acute stressors is limited. This study investigated train driver perceptions regarding performance impacts of stressful events and potential strategies for reducing negative impacts. 71 Australian train drivers were presented with three stressful event scenarios via an online survey and asked to rate the impacts on driving performance. Results showed that participants perceived that stress would enhance performance, but that impacts differed depending on the event type. The findings suggest that train drivers may not be subjectively aware of negative impacts of acute stress, which has important practical implications for risk management following an incident. Qualitative results revealed the most frequently reported stress impact related to cognition. Practical implications and future research directions to prevent and manage stressful event exposure are discussed.

Using human factors and ergonomics methods to challenge the status quo: Designing for gender equitable research outcomes.

There have been recent calls for Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) to expand its reach and focus to address larger scale societal and global issues. An area of growing awareness is the issue of the gender data gap, whereby women are under-represented in research data, leading to inequitable outcomes when research findings are used to design real world technologies, products, environments, processes, and policies. The aim of this paper is to showcase how structured HFE methods can be used to address the gender data gap. We applied the Sociotechnical Systems Design Toolkit which involved using causal loop diagrams and abstraction hierarchy modelling from Cognitive Work Analysis to understand the system in which the issue occurs and key pain points, followed by the application of the Design with Intent Toolkit to generate design ideas. A total of 43 ideas were developed that could be implemented by universities to address the research data gap. The application demonstrates the utility of HFE methods in tackling complex issues and offers an opportunity for the HFE community to reflect upon the importance of gender sensitive research practices and gender equity more broadly.

From control to causation: Validating a 'complex systems model' of running-related injury development and prevention.

INTRODUCTION: There is a need for an ecological and complex systems approach for better understanding the development and prevention of running-related injury (RRI). In a previous article, we proposed a prototype model of the Australian recreational distance running system which was based on the Systems Theoretic Accident Mapping and Processes (STAMP) method. That model included the influence of political, organisational, managerial, and sociocultural determinants alongside individual-level factors in relation to RRI development. The purpose of this study was to validate that prototype model by drawing on the expertise of both systems thinking and distance running experts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used a modified Delphi technique involving a series of online surveys (December 2016- March 2017). The initial survey was divided into four sections containing a total of seven questions pertaining to different features associated with the prototype model. Consensus in opinion about the validity of the prototype model was reached when the number of experts who agreed or disagreed with survey statement was ≥75% of the total number of respondents. RESULTS: A total of two Delphi rounds was needed to validate the prototype model. Out of a total of 51 experts who were initially contacted, 50.9% (n = 26) completed the first round of the Delphi, and 92.3% (n = 24) of those in the first round participated in the second. Most of the 24 full participants considered themselves to be a running expert (66.7%), and approximately a third indicated their expertise as a systems thinker (33.3%). After the second round, 91.7% of the experts agreed that the prototype model was a valid description of the Australian distance running system. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to formally examine the development and prevention of RRI from an ecological and complex systems perspective. The validated model of the Australian distance running system facilitates theoretical advancement in terms of identifying practical system-wide opportunities for the implementation of sustainable RRI prevention interventions. This 'big picture' perspective represents the first step required when thinking about the range of contributory causal factors that affect other system elements, as well as runners' behaviours in relation to RRI risk.

Developing a contributing factor classification scheme for Rasmussen's AcciMap: Reliability and validity evaluation.

One factor potentially limiting the uptake of Rasmussen's (1997) Accimap method by practitioners is the lack of a contributing factor classification scheme to guide accident analyses. This article evaluates the intra- and inter-rater reliability and criterion-referenced validity of a classification scheme developed to support the use of Accimap by led outdoor activity (LOA) practitioners. The classification scheme has two levels: the system level describes the actors, artefacts and activity context in terms of 14 codes; the descriptor level breaks the system level codes down into 107 specific contributing factors. The study involved 11 LOA practitioners using the scheme on two separate occasions to code a pre-determined list of contributing factors identified from four incident reports. Criterion-referenced validity was assessed by comparing the codes selected by LOA practitioners to those selected by the method creators. Mean intra-rater reliability scores at the system (M = 83.6%) and descriptor (M = 74%) levels were acceptable. Mean inter-rater reliability scores were not consistently acceptable for both coding attempts at the system level (MT1 = 68.8%; MT2 = 73.9%), and were poor at the descriptor level (MT1 = 58.5%; MT2 = 64.1%). Mean criterion referenced validity scores at the system level were acceptable (MT1 = 73.9%; MT2 = 75.3%). However, they were not consistently acceptable at the descriptor level (MT1 = 67.6%; MT2 = 70.8%). Overall, the results indicate that the classification scheme does not currently satisfy reliability and validity requirements, and that further work is required. The implications for the design and development of contributing factors classification schemes are discussed.

Metabolic engineering and directed evolution for the production of pharmaceuticals.

The tools of metabolic and enzyme engineering have been well developed in academic laboratories and are now being applied for the optimization of biocatalysts used in the production of a wide range of pharmaceutically important molecules. Engineered microorganisms with a diverse set of modified or non-native enzyme activities are being used both to generate novel products and to provide improved processes for the manufacture of established products, such as in the production of precursors, intermediates, and complete compounds of importance to the pharmaceutical industry, including polyketides, nonribosomal peptides, steroids, vitamins, and unnatural amino acids. The use of directed evolution has rapidly emerged to be the method of choice for the development and selection of mutated enzymes with improved properties. A variety of such methods have been used to alter the activity, stability and availability of an array of enzymes. The industrial practice of these technologies at large scale is, however, in its infancy and stands as an exciting challenge for process scientists today.

Assessing the 'system' in safe systems-based road designs: using cognitive work analysis to evaluate intersection designs.

While a safe systems approach has long been acknowledged as the underlying philosophy of contemporary road safety strategies, systemic applications are sparse. This article argues that systems-based methods from the discipline of Ergonomics have a key role to play in road transport design and evaluation. To demonstrate, the Cognitive Work Analysis framework was used to evaluate two road designs - a traditional Melbourne intersection and a cut-through design for future intersections based on road safety safe systems principles. The results demonstrate that, although the cut-through intersection appears different in layout from the traditional intersection, system constraints are not markedly different. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrated that redistribution of constraints in the cut-through intersection resulted in emergent behaviour, which was not anticipated and could prove problematic. Further, based on the lack of understanding of emergent behaviour, similar design induced problems are apparent across both intersections. Specifically, incompatibilities between infrastructure, vehicles and different road users were not dealt with by the proposed design changes. The importance of applying systems methods in the design and evaluation of road transport systems is discussed.

Inhibition of fungal sphingolipid biosynthesis by rustmicin, galbonolide B and their new 21-hydroxy analogs.

The mode of action of the known antifungal macrolides rustmicin (1) and galbonolide B (2) has been determined to be the inhibition of sphingolipid biosynthesis. A large scale fermentation and isolation process was developed for production of large quantities of rustmicin. New 21-hydroxy derivatives of both compounds were isolated from pilot scale fermentations and were also produced by biotransformation of rustmicin and galbonolide B.

Representing situation awareness in collaborative systems: a case study in the energy distribution domain.

The concept of distributed situation awareness (DSA) is currently receiving increasing attention from the human factors community. This article investigates DSA in a collaborative real-world industrial setting by discussing the results derived from a recent naturalistic study undertaken within the UK energy distribution domain. The results describe the DSA-related information used by the networks of agents involved in the scenarios analysed, the sharing of this information between the agents and the salience of different information elements used. Thus, the structure, quality and content of each network's DSA is discussed, along with the implications for DSA theory. The findings reinforce the notion that when viewing situation awareness (SA) in collaborative systems, it is useful to focus on the coordinated behaviour of the system itself, rather than on the individual as the unit of analysis and suggest that the findings from such assessments can potentially be used to inform system, procedure and training design. SA is a critical commodity for teams working in industrial systems and systems, procedures and training programmes should be designed to facilitate efficient system SA acquisition and maintenance. This article presents approaches for describing and understanding SA during real-world collaborative tasks, the outputs from which can potentially be used to inform system, training programmes and procedure design.

Using cognitive work analysis to explore activity allocation within military domains.

Cognitive work analysis (CWA) is frequently advocated as an approach for the analysis of complex socio-technical systems. Much of the current CWA literature within the military domain pays particular attention to its initial phases; work domain analysis and contextual task analysis. Comparably, the analysis of the social and organisational constraints receives much less attention. Through the study of a helicopter mission planning system software tool, this paper describes an approach for investigating the constraints affecting the distribution of work. The paper uses this model to evaluate the potential benefits of the social and organisational analysis phase within a military context. The analysis shows that, through its focus on constraints, the approach provides a unique description of the factors influencing the social organisation within a complex domain. This approach appears to be compatible with existing approaches and serves as a validation of more established social analysis techniques. As part of the ergonomic design of mission planning systems, the social organisation and cooperation analysis phase of CWA provides a constraint-based description informing allocation of function between key actor groups. This approach is useful because it poses questions related to the transfer of information and optimum working practices.

Scale up of a viscous fungal fermentation: application of scale-up criteria with regime analysis and operating boundary conditions.

The scale up of the novel, pharmaceutically important pneumocandin (B(0)), from the filamentous fungus Glarea lozoyensis was successfully completed from pilot scale (0.07, 0.8, and 19 m(3)) to production scale (57 m(3)). This was accomplished, despite dissimilar reactor geometry, employing a combination of scale-up criteria, process sensitivity studies, and regime analysis using characteristic time constants for both oxygen mass transfer and bulk mixing. Dissolved oxygen tension, separated from the influence of agitation by gas blending at the 0.07 m(3)-scale, had a marked influence on the concentrations of pneumocandin analogs with different levels of hydroxylation, and these concentrations were used as an indicator of bulk mixing upon scale up. The profound impact of dissolved oxygen tension (DOT) (low and high levels) on analog formation dictated the use of constant DOT, at 80% air saturation, as a scale-up criterion. As a result k(L)a, Oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and hence the OTR were held constant, which were effectively conserved across the scales, while the use of other criterion such as P(g)/V(L), or mixing time were less effective. Production scale (57 m(3)) mixing times were found to be faster than those at 19 m(3) due to a difference in liquid height/tank diameter ratio (H(L)/D(T)). Regime analysis at 19 and 57 m(3) for bulk mixing (t(c)) and oxygen transfer (1/k(L)a) showed that oxygen transfer was the rate-limiting step for this highly shear thinning fermentation, providing additional support for the choice of scale-up criterion.

Changing drivers' minds: the evaluation of an advanced driver coaching system.

This paper reports on the study of an advanced driver coaching system. The study distinguishes between different types of post-licensure programmes in order to explore a system based on a model of identifying and responding to hazards, called 'information, position, speed, gear and acceleration' (IPSGA). Previous literature has been sceptical about the benefits of advanced driver education; thus, the current study was designed to control for the effects of coaching drivers in the 'IPSGA' system (the treatment group) against the effects of being accompanied (control group 1), as well as the mere effects of time (control group 2). Measures were taken before the driver coaching began (as a baseline measure) and again after 8 weeks (to see if any changes had occurred). These measures included driver knowledge via a post-drive interview, observations of driving skill and driver attitude using a locus of control scale. The results suggest that advanced driver coaching using the IPSGA system had a beneficial effect on all of these measures. Drivers in the coaching condition improved their situation awareness, driving skills and reduced attributions of external locus of control. The study lends support to the case for one-to-one individualized driver coaching using a systematic model of driving.

Mass transfer limitations in gel beads containing growing immobilized cells.

Immobilized-cell aggregates have traditionally been approximated as effective continua within which the catalytic activity of the cells is homogeneously distributed. Chang & Park (1985), however, recently modelled the immobilized cells as discrete inclusions within a support matrix. With some modification, this theory is applicable to the analysis of microbial colonies growing within gel beads, and indicates that predictions obtained using the traditional approach may be significantly in error.

The effective diffusive permeability of a nonreacting solute in microbial cell aggregates.

Aggregates of Escherichia coli confined within hollowfiber reactors were either formed in place by culturing cells within the reactors, or were prepared by injecting a cell suspension that had been concentrated by centrifugation. The effective diffusive permeability of an uncharged nonreacting tracer, nitrous oxide, within the cell aggregates was calculated from measurements of the tracer flux through the aggregates. Estimates of the hydraulic permeability were also obtained for the aggregates that were grown in place. The effective diffusive permeability was found to decrease with increasing cell volume fraction to a value, for aggregates comprising 95% cells, of ca. 30% that obtained for cell-free buffer solution. The dependence on the cell volume fraction was described adequately by the well-known HashinShtrikman bounds for a two-phase medium. The transport properties of aggregates cultivated in place were not significantly different from those of aggregates prepared by centrifugation. Furthermore, the effective diffusive permeabilities of the tracer in aggregates prepared from cells treated with detergent or disrupted by dehydration and grinding differed only slightly from the values obtained for aggregates formed from untreated cells. The results suggest that the method of formation of the cell aggregate and the details of the structure of the cells have little influence on the effective diffusive permeability. These findings should be applicable to the transport of other small uncharged solutes, such as oxygen, that can diffuse through cells. The hydraulic permeability estimates for the aggregates cultured in place were several orders of magnitude larger than the values predicted by a theory formulated with the assumption that the cells are impervious to flow and homogeneously distributed within the aggregates. Two possible reasons for this discrepancy are, first, that there is some flow through the cells themselves, and second, that the cells may form discrete clusters separated by relatively open regions.

Pilot-scale process sensitivity studies for the scaleup of a fungal fermentation for the production of pneumocandins.

The filamentous fungus Glarea lozoyensis produces a novel, pharmaceutically important pneumocandin (B(0)) that is used to synthesize a lipopeptide which demonstrates cidal activity against clinically relevant pathogens. A range of unwanted pneumocandin analogs are also produced by the organism. To maintain the unwanted impurities to acceptable levels upon scaleup, a good understanding of the impact of chemical and physical environment on the cell physiology is required, which benefits downstream processing. Pilot-scale studies were performed to determine the impact of dissolved oxygen, temperature, pH, and carbon dioxide on the process. Experiments included multiple fermenters (up to seven) at 0.07 and 0.8 m(3) scale using single source medium sterilization and inoculum. Gas blending was used to separate effects of dissolved oxygen from agitation. The process was significantly influenced by dissolved oxygen level. The critical dissolved oxygen tension (C(crit)) for growth was below 2% air saturation. The C(crit) for production of pneumocandin B(0) was 20% air saturation, with a significant reduction of the specific production rate below this value. In contrast, low dissolved oxygen levels produced a substantial increase of pneumocandins B(1), B(5), and E(0), while high dissolved oxygen levels produced a disproportionate increase of D(5). This sensivity to dissolved oxygen was independent of agitation within a power range of 2-15 kW/m(3). Broth viscosity was impacted below 10% dissolved oxygen, suggesting an effect on morphology. The process was shown to be sensitive to temperature but relatively insensitive to pH and carbon dioxide (in the exhaust gas) within the ranges studied. This scaledown analysis explained phenomena seen at pilot scale and helped define operating boundary conditions for successful scale up to 19 m(3).