The developmental hierarchy and scarcity of replicative slender trypanosomes in blood challenges their role in infection maintenance.

The development of Trypanosoma brucei in its mammalian host is marked by a distinct morphological change as replicative "slender" forms differentiate into cell cycle arrested "stumpy" forms in a quorum-sensing-dependent manner. Although stumpy forms dominate chronic infections at the population level, the proportion of replicative parasites at the individual cell level and the irreversibility of arrest in the bloodstream are unclear. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that developmental cell cycle arrest is definitively irreversible in acute and chronic infections in mice. Furthermore, analysis of replicative capacity and single-cell transcriptome profiling reveal a temporal hierarchy, whereby cell cycle arrest and appearance of a reversible stumpy-like transcriptome precede irreversible commitment and morphological change. Unexpectedly, we show that proliferating parasites are exceptionally scarce in the blood after infections are established. This challenges the ability of bloodstream trypanosomes to sustain infection by proliferation or antigenic variation, these parasites instead being overwhelmingly adapted for transmission.

Temporal trends in the discovery of human viruses.

On average, more than two new species of human virus are reported every year. We constructed the cumulative species discovery curve for human viruses going back to 1901. We fitted a statistical model to these data; the shape of the curve strongly suggests that the process of virus discovery is far from complete. We generated a 95% credible interval for the pool of as yet undiscovered virus species of 38-562. We extrapolated the curve and generated an estimate of 10-40 new species to be discovered by 2020. Although we cannot predict the level of health threat that these new viruses will present, we conclude that novel virus species must be anticipated in public health planning. More systematic virus discovery programmes, covering both humans and potential animal reservoirs of human viruses, should be considered.

Metapopulation dynamics of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle: an exploratory model.

Livestock movement is thought to be a risk factor for the transmission of infectious diseases of farm animals. Simple mathematical models were constructed for the transmission of Escherichia coli serogroup O157 between Scottish cattle farms, and the models were used in a preliminary exploration of factors contributing to the levels of infection reported in the field. The results suggest that cattle movement can make a significant contribution to the observed prevalence of E. coli O157-positive farms, but is not by itself sufficient for the persistence of E. coli O157. The results also suggest that cattle movements involving infected farms with cattle shedding an exceptional amount of E. coli O157, 'super-shedders', also make a substantial contribution to the prevalence of infected farms. Simulations indicate that E. coli O157 could have reached the currently observed prevalence levels in less than a decade. Implications and findings from our models are discussed in relation to possible control of E. coli O157 in Scottish cattle.