Remote myocardial fibrosis predicts adverse outcome in patients with myocardial infarction on clinical cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) most commonly occurs in patients who have had a myocardial infarction (MI), but factors other than MI size may be deterministic. Fibrosis of myocardium remote from the MI is associated with adverse remodeling. We aimed to 1) investigate the association between remote myocardial fibrosis, measured using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) extracellular volume fraction (ECV), and HF and death following MI, 2) identify predictors of remote myocardial fibrosis in patients with evidence of MI and determine the relationship with infarct size. METHODS: Multicenter prospective cohort study of 1199 consecutive patients undergoing CMR with evidence of MI on late gadolinium enhancement. Median follow-up was 1133 (895-1442) days. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to identify factors predictive of the primary outcome, a composite of first hospitalization for HF (HHF) or all-cause mortality, post-CMR. Linear regression modeling was used to identify determinants of remote ECV. RESULTS: Remote myocardial fibrosis was a strong predictor of primary outcome (χ2: 15.6, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07 per 1% increase in ECV, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.11, p < 0.001) and was separately predictive of both HHF and death. The strongest predictors of remote ECV were diabetes, sex, natriuretic peptides, and body mass index, but, despite extensive phenotyping, the adjusted model R2 was only 0.283. The relationship between infarct size and remote fibrosis was very weak. CONCLUSION: Myocardial fibrosis, measured using CMR ECV, is a strong predictor of HHF and death in patients with evidence of MI. The mechanisms underlying remote myocardial fibrosis formation post-MI remain poorly understood, but factors other than infarct size appear to be important.

Identification of heart failure hospitalization from NHS Digital data: comparison with expert adjudication.

AIMS: Population-wide, person-level, linked electronic health record data are increasingly used to estimate epidemiology, guide resource allocation, and identify events in clinical trials. The accuracy of data from NHS Digital (now part of NHS England) for identifying hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), a key HF standard, is not clear. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of NHS Digital data for identifying HHF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients experiencing at least one HHF, as determined by NHS Digital data, and age- and sex-matched patients not experiencing HHF, were identified from a prospective cohort study and underwent expert adjudication. Three code sets commonly used to identify HHF were applied to the data and compared with expert adjudication (I50: International Classification of Diseases-10 codes beginning I50; OIS: Clinical Commissioning Groups Outcomes Indicator Set; and NICOR: National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research, used as the basis for the National Heart Failure Audit in England and Wales). Five hundred four patients underwent expert adjudication, of which 10 (2%) were adjudicated to have experienced HHF. Specificity was high across all three code sets in the first diagnosis position {I50: 96.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 94.1-97.7%]; NICOR: 93.3% [CI 90.8-95.4%]; OIS: 95.6% [CI 93.3-97.2%]} but decreased substantially as the number of diagnosis positions expanded. Sensitivity [40.0% (CI 12.2-73.8%)] and positive predictive value (PPV) [highest with I50: 17.4% (CI 8.1-33.6%)] were low in the first diagnosis position for all coding sets. PPV was higher for the National Heart Failure Audit criteria, albeit modestly [36.4% (CI 16.6-62.2%)]. CONCLUSIONS: NHS Digital data were not able to accurately identify HHF and should not be used in isolation for this purpose.

Prognostic utility and characterization of left ventricular hypertrophy using global thickness.

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) can accurately measure left ventricular (LV) mass, and several measures related to LV wall thickness exist. We hypothesized that prognosis can be used to select an optimal measure of wall thickness for characterizing LV hypertrophy. Subjects having undergone CMR were studied (cardiac patients, n = 2543; healthy volunteers, n = 100). A new measure, global wall thickness (GT, GTI if indexed to body surface area) was accurately calculated from LV mass and end-diastolic volume. Among patients with follow-up (n = 1575, median follow-up 5.4 years), the most predictive measure of death or hospitalization for heart failure was LV mass index (LVMI) (hazard ratio (HR)[95% confidence interval] 1.16[1.12-1.20], p < 0.001), followed by GTI (HR 1.14[1.09-1.19], p < 0.001). Among patients with normal findings (n = 326, median follow-up 5.8 years), the most predictive measure was GT (HR 1.62[1.35-1.94], p < 0.001). GT and LVMI could characterize patients as having a normal LV mass and wall thickness, concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, or eccentric hypertrophy, and the three abnormal groups had worse prognosis than the normal group (p < 0.05 for all). LV mass is highly prognostic when mass is elevated, but GT is easily and accurately calculated, and adds value and discrimination amongst those with normal LV mass (early disease).